0% Inflation!

[thelawlorfaithful]

On 12/13/2022 at 1:20 PM, toonkee said:

It gets better.

The bill was Dave Atell, Mitch Hedberg and Lewis Black. Some Comedy Central tour thing.

IIRC I already heard most of Mitch's stuff but the Atell material was new to me and I remember that being my favorite from that night. 

Holy cow. What a lineup. Black was the opener?

[AztecSU]

On 12/13/2022 at 1:20 PM, toonkee said:

It gets better.

The bill was Dave Atell, Mitch Hedberg and Lewis Black. Some Comedy Central tour thing.

IIRC I already heard most of Mitch's stuff but the Atell material was new to me and I remember that being my favorite from that night. 

Insomniac with Dave Atell...its when my humor graduated. I was 17 years old the first season. 

[AztecSU]

On 12/13/2022 at 8:18 AM, grandjean87 said:

Categories breakout - YoY:

 

Would love to understand the price impact on the other items from the cost of Fuel/Natural gas. Like how much of the % change was just driven by the cost of the commodity to move around or generate the other commodities?

[grandjean87]

On 12/13/2022 at 3:02 PM, AztecSU said:

Would love to understand the price impact on the other items from the cost of Fuel/Natural gas. Like how much of the % change was just driven by the cost of the commodity to move around or generate the other commodities?

I have not looked for any current 2nd derivative data.  Fuel costs' impacts are important, but they are industry specific.  Some consumer spending categories not much at all affected.  I don't think fuel costs impact high value/low bulk stuff much, but general transportation can be 10%+% and some industries higher. I think for air travel it can be like 25%?  So, the YoY graph showing that big rise in air fare makes sense.  

The +70% (YoY fuel) certainly is a derivative factor for core inflation just as falling fuel prices MoM recently have done for those metrics (edit: esp. for aggregate PCE/CPI). 

[toonkee]

On 12/13/2022 at 1:42 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

Holy cow. What a lineup. Black was the opener?

I think he was the headliner!

[thelawlorfaithful]

On 12/13/2022 at 3:05 PM, toonkee said:

I think he was the headliner!

That makes more sense for the time period

[toonkee]

On 12/13/2022 at 2:00 PM, AztecSU said:

Insomniac with Dave Atell...its when my humor graduated. I was 17 years old the first season. 

Such a good show. 

[AztecSU]

On 12/13/2022 at 2:33 PM, grandjean87 said:

I have not looked for any current 2nd derivative data.  Fuel costs' impacts are important, but they are industry specific.  Some consumer spending categories not much at all affected.  I don't think fuel costs impact high value/low bulk stuff much, but general transportation can be 10%+% and some industries higher. I think for air travel it can be like 25%?  So, the YoY graph showing that big rise in air fare makes sense.  

The +70% (YoY fuel) certainly is a derivative factor for core inflation just as falling fuel prices MoM recently have done for those metrics. 

this is the answer i needed

[Maji]

On 12/13/2022 at 9:00 AM, grandjean87 said:

Jay Powell.  If only we could clone both. 

my opinion of him has declined

[grandjean87]

On 12/14/2022 at 12:58 PM, Maji said:

my opinion of him has declined

I'm watching the WC rather than the post-hike presser.

There's a good debate out there.  Prof. Siegel is one out front saying the Fed is late to see inflation is gone.   Then there is the lesson of the '70s and the unprecedented U.S. global monetary stimulus combined w/a sticky labor force.  Fear of not killing inflation for sure is the tilt for now. 

[tspoke]

 

 

[utenation]

Interesting article on young people living at home. I understand the reasons. But a few issues I see as a mortgage guy are: 

It’s very important for each generation to buy homes. Plenty of data that shows owning a home as a young person improves their stability, confidence, success and community involvement.  Less young people buying homes leaves big holes for investment companies to gobble up the market with zero pride of ownership. 

And excess spending rather than asset building which is crucial at a young age.

The current Fed actions are designed to slow down the housing market and many potential young homeowners were already priced out of the market but I hope these aren’t long term solutions for kids because parents aren’t pushing them out of the nest to contribute to society. 
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nearly-half-young-adults-us-073044507.html

[Maji]

On 12/13/2022 at 7:05 AM, Maji said:

might end up closer than expected if the December report next month is good

6.5%, YoY

[grandjean87]

On 1/12/2023 at 9:58 AM, Maji said:

6.5%, YoY

6 handle so I think you win :)

[Maji]

On 1/12/2023 at 11:42 AM, grandjean87 said:

6 handle so I think you win

wasn't my prediction though! still nice to see

[grandjean87]

On 1/12/2023 at 12:51 PM, Maji said:

wasn't my prediction though! still nice to see

You were at least leaning in that direction. 

I'm not expecting the Fed to pause or even go to a 0.25 raise next, and the balance sheet contraction will continue.  The Fed is committed to killing the possibility of Hydra-like inflation.  They'll need more and longer data to change direction. 

[Maji]

On 1/12/2023 at 12:56 PM, grandjean87 said:

You were at least leaning in that direction. 

I'm not expecting the Fed to pause or even go to a 0.25 raise next, and the balance sheet contraction will continue.  The Fed is committed to killing the possibility of Hydra-like inflation.  They'll need more and longer data to change direction. 

I've been worried that their response will go too far and lag the situation, but the economy has been pretty resilient thus far. Seems like the Q4 GDP print will be solid. That, plus the labor market & wage growth holding up, probably emboldens them

[happycamper]

On 1/12/2023 at 3:05 PM, Maji said:

I've been worried that their response will go too far and lag the situation, but the economy has been pretty resilient thus far. Seems like the Q4 GDP print will be solid. That, plus the labor market & wage growth holding up, probably emboldens them

Student loan repayment starts either 2 months after the debt forgiveness is decided or the end of August (60 days after June 30, so Aug 29 I guess?). 

Over the course of the fed trying to beat inflation, it seems like that fact has slipped their mind. There's going to be a less money in the economy at that point. Probably one of the bigger unheralded causes of the economic recovery and by extension inflation. Something like 10-15 billion a month? Call it 500 billion of just... forgotten payments by the end point? 

[grandjean87]

While the PCE is the Fed's favored price index, the CPI came in a little above expectations this morning.  Seems energy price (gas) reversing a cause.  Think I heard Oct. and Nov. figures were revised up slightly?  S&P is green (a bit).  Dow flat. 

[SalinasSpartan]

On 12/14/2022 at 11:10 PM, utenation said:

Interesting article on young people living at home. I understand the reasons. But a few issues I see as a mortgage guy are: 

It’s very important for each generation to buy homes. Plenty of data that shows owning a home as a young person improves their stability, confidence, success and community involvement.  Less young people buying homes leaves big holes for investment companies to gobble up the market with zero pride of ownership. 

And excess spending rather than asset building which is crucial at a young age.

The current Fed actions are designed to slow down the housing market and many potential young homeowners were already priced out of the market but I hope these aren’t long term solutions for kids because parents aren’t pushing them out of the nest to contribute to society. 
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nearly-half-young-adults-us-073044507.html

I really think this kind of misses the point. Well, at least from my perspective in CA. Parents can push all they want, but if their kid can’t afford a mortgage then what difference does it make how hard they “push them”?