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Willie Cee

Sayonara Aztecs

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And this from a SC podcast = "Realignment is becoming a battlefield, and San Diego State is the hill to be taken"

http://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/08/08/realignment-is-becoming-a-battlefield-and-san-diego-state-is-the-hill-to-be-taken/

Excellent podcast. It's basically what Jon Wilner has been preaching for a month now but good to hear it said again. I think its better than 90-10 we end up in the P12, and that's the preference. But if not I think its 70-30 we end up in the B12. 
 

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On 8/8/2022 at 7:11 PM, Willie Cee said:

And this from a SC podcast = "Realignment is becoming a battlefield, and San Diego State is the hill to be taken"

http://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/08/08/realignment-is-becoming-a-battlefield-and-san-diego-state-is-the-hill-to-be-taken/

Excellent podcast. It's basically what Jon Wilner has been preaching for a month now but good to hear it said again. I think its better than 90-10 we end up in the P12, and that's the preference. But if not I think its 70-30 we end up in the B12. 
 

Quoting Wilner seriously at this point is a risky game.

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If it happens, it would be cool to see the Aztecs football (and basketball for that matter) jump to the top of the Pac-12. If you would've been in the Pac-12 last year I'd say there's a pretty good chance you would've been in the Rose Bowl, particularly if you played Utah early like last season. 

 

I really think it would awaken a sleeping giant, no reason that SDSU can't out recruit as well as any pac 12 program.

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On 8/8/2022 at 4:24 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Quoting Wilner seriously at this point is a risky game.

LOL.  Yeah, quoting the guy that is so connected that he broke the biggest Pac-12 news in 40 years is risky.  

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I might tend to agree with you if his opinions were only his. This USC homers podcast, along with numerous other, written and spoken across a wide variety of conference affiliations has come to the same point. The Aztecs are in a more advantageous position than any of the Group of 5 wannabe's and far better than any other MWC option. This is a unarguably true, not because of any one factor but a fortuitous combination of geography, culture and (now) Power 5 level facilities. Of all of the superpowers you would want to have, luck is by far the best one. 

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I'll believe it when I see it.  It doesn't matter what talking heads think.  What matters is what the presidents of the Pac 12 schools think and they are all about associating with large, research-driven universities.  SDSU is not one.  It's tough enough to sell that to them.  Just wait until the presidents are told that SDSU will dilute their conference payouts - strike 2.  

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On 8/8/2022 at 6:24 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Quoting Wilner seriously at this point is a risky game.

He broke the USCLA to the B1G news before anyone even heard a rumor.  I think, for the time being, he's swinging past his knees.  

 

815ec1c49c2fc486326de11cad114bbdc1cfc0fd

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On 8/8/2022 at 5:09 PM, Fowl said:

I'll believe it when I see it.  It doesn't matter what talking heads think.  What matters is what the presidents of the Pac 12 schools think and they are all about associating with large, research-driven universities.  SDSU is not one.  It's tough enough to sell that to them.  Just wait until the presidents are told that SDSU will dilute their conference payouts - strike 2.  

Who pissed in your Cheerios el groucho?

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On 8/8/2022 at 8:33 PM, Willie Cee said:

Who pissed in your Cheerios el groucho?

He makes a valid point. Most here are not of the age group that remembers when Az STATE and UofA were added. My Golden (at that time) could have gotten accepted to Arizona State (see Boise for educational reference today) and that is just one of the short sided views.

Had the "PacWhen" added SDSU with $C and UGLY, they would not be in this situation.

Agree with Guillermo, our inclusion is just a matter of time yet I hope we go to the "Big" 12.

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Never underestimate the ability of power conferences and major networks to ultimately screw over G5 schools.

If the end game here is a dismantling of the Pac-12 by the B1G and the Big 12, that outcome won’t be prevented by the Pac-12 adding SDSU, and afterwards there won’t be any motivation for the Big 12 to add SDSU.

I think the only scenario in which SDSU lands a golden ticket is the one where the Pac-12 both emerges from the current round of realignment intact and then decides to expand.  That’s not an unlikely scenario, but I wouldn’t put the odds at 90-10.

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Along with the elitist snob-ism of the Pac schools and diluting the payout, SDSU is still the ONLY school that makes sense for everything else - TV market, athletic success, geography, etc.

All of this is speculation, including my 2 cents here, but I think my odds for SDSU getting a Pac invite is around 50/50 due to the first two items (academics/dilution) above. For the Big 12, I would lower those odds dramatically, maybe 10/90.

Again, JMHO, but for the Big 12, I think a school further east...maybe one of the better remaining AAC schools or CSU perhaps? No real idea on what the Big 12 will do, but I think it's highly unlikely they would go with SDSU.

 

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On 8/9/2022 at 7:11 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Never underestimate the ability of power conferences and major networks to ultimately screw over G5 schools.

If the end game here is a dismantling of the Pac-12 by the B1G and the Big 12, that outcome won’t be prevented by the Pac-12 adding SDSU, and afterwards there won’t be any motivation for the Big 12 to add SDSU.

I think the only scenario in which SDSU lands a golden ticket is the one where the Pac-12 both emerges from the current round of realignment intact and then decides to expand.  That’s not an unlikely scenario, but I wouldn’t put the odds at 90-10.

Maybe, but between San Diego to LA there are about 20-25mil people and San Diego has been prolific in producing FB/BB talent. The B12's incentive would be to tap into that mass of humanity instead of ceding it to the BIG/SEC.

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Sorry SDSU, why would there be an expansion of the P-5-BCS- whatever you want to call them schools, rather than a contraction? Pie in the sky thinking from a lot of you.

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On 8/8/2022 at 8:43 PM, RebelAlliance said:

He broke the USCLA to the B1G news before anyone even heard a rumor.  I think, for the time being, he's swinging past his knees.  

 

Yahoo sports was the first to report it, but more significantly is the mountains of verifiable crap he’s put out the last few weeks.  He’s been called out for bad math and conflicting statements and disingenuous remarks by national writers.  It’s certainly entertaining, but his work reeks of delegation.  

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On 8/9/2022 at 1:22 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

What did he break exactly? And why are you ignoring everything else that’s happened in the last few weeks?

He broke the LA schools leaving the PAC...what has happened other than b12 fans circle-jerking about how they are going to add all these PAC schools only for none of it to happen?

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On 8/9/2022 at 1:37 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Yahoo sports was the first to report it, but more significantly is the mountains of verifiable crap he’s put out the last few weeks.  He’s been called out for bad math and conflicting statements and disingenuous remarks by national writers.  It’s certainly entertaining, but his work reeks of delegation.  

No Wilner was the first to report it. Yahoo Sports credited Wilner for breaking the story:

 

"USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten in 2024, the schools and conference announced Thursday. Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News first reported the universities were in talks of joining the Big Ten."

https://sports.yahoo.com/reports-usc-ucla-planning-to-leave-pac-12-for-big-ten-174647901.html

 

"So now Jon Wilner, the veteran Pac-12 reporter, broke the news Thursday that USC and UCLA were negotiating to leave for the Big Ten in 2024. The schools later made it official in an announcement."

https://sports.yahoo.com/sec-fired-the-first-shot-the-big-ten-responded-by-poaching-usc-and-ucla-and-gut-punching-pac-12-alliance-partner-205216755.html

 

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On 8/9/2022 at 7:11 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Never underestimate the ability of power conferences and major networks to ultimately screw over G5 schools.

If the end game here is a dismantling of the Pac-12 by the B1G and the Big 12, that outcome won’t be prevented by the Pac-12 adding SDSU, and afterwards there won’t be any motivation for the Big 12 to add SDSU.

I think the only scenario in which SDSU lands a golden ticket is the one where the Pac-12 both emerges from the current round of realignment intact and then decides to expand.  That’s not an unlikely scenario, but I wouldn’t put the odds at 90-10.

Completely agree. If the remaining 10 stay together, it is extremely likely they will expend. Based on time zones and ESPN splitting with the Big10, ESPN is going to need more inventory on the west coast, especially if they go with Friday and Saturday night games. The ESPN/Big10 breakup is the best thing that could have happened to SDSU. Of course it won't matter if uncle Phil buys Oregon's way into the Big10 or the Ariz/Colo/Utah group heads to the Big12.

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On 8/9/2022 at 6:46 PM, Dogday63 said:

Completely agree. If the remaining 10 stay together, it is extremely likely they will expend. Based on time zones and ESPN splitting with the Big10, ESPN is going to need more inventory on the west coast, especially if they go with Friday and Saturday night games. The ESPN/Big10 breakup is the best thing that could have happened to SDSU. Of course it won't matter if uncle Phil buys Oregon's way into the Big10 or the Ariz/Colo/Utah group heads to the Big12.

We're all just spitballing here, but I don't think either of those scenarios is imminent.  P10 is in the catbird seat now with ESPN and has very little to fear from a B12 raid.  Obviously that could change, but for now the P10 is the most attractive TV conference of the two and I suspect that ESPN is on board with that.  As far as Oregon to the B1G, not this week.  The B1G is getting a little cumbersome.  I think their next step is a slow one.  When enough changes happen that they can jettison a Purdue to get a UW, then yeah, that will probably happen.  Oregon would be high on their list, behind Washington, but I'm guessing that they'll first need to find a way to ditch a couple of weak markets in order to bring in new ones.  ND is the wildcard that can change everything, but it looks like that hand is already being played.  In due time, probably, but not today.

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