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Akkula

anti-Choicers getting crushed in Kansas

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i think the republicans strategy next will to be a ballot vote on whether abortions for down's syndrome should be constitutional banned or allowed

it will get emotional and is already happening in other states besides Kansas

but 70% support legalized abortion so i have no idea how it would turn out in the election

 

 

https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2021/06/08/disability-groups-struggle-to-respond-to-latest-abortion-bill/

In debate over Down syndrome/abortion bill, disability groups struggle with how to respond

As challenging a topic as abortion is in the general public, discussing it in the disability community presents even more tangled ethical questions.

But HB 453, the Human Life Nondiscrimination Act/ No Eugenics bill, would prohibit a physician from performing an abortion if the parents express that they’re seeking the procedure because of the “presence or presumed presence of Down syndrome.”

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On 8/3/2022 at 1:23 PM, grandjean87 said:

I saw that same poll, too, but that was for being issue #1 and it ranked as the 2nd highest issue.  A better gauge is how the issue will affect voters. 

https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-july-2022/

  • In the wake of the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Center to overturn Roe, abortion access has become salient among key voting groups, including the population most impacted by abortion restrictions – women between the ages of 18 and 49. Among this population, there has been a fourteen percentage point increase in the share who say abortion will be “very important” to their 2022 midterm vote (59% in February to 73% in July). In addition, six in ten women voters between 18 and 49 now say they are “more motivated” to vote because of the Supreme Court’s decision (up 19 percentage points from May when the question was asked about a scenario in which Roe was overturned based on a leaked draft opinion). The vast majority (88%) of the more motivated group of women voters between 18 and 49 say they plan on voting for candidates who will protect access to abortions.

Yeah it finished tied in 2nd with inflation.

It’s not surprising that women under 50 would be upset about it. But I want to see it broken out by issue overall and by party. That tells you more about how to gauge it. Trump got elected once and almost twice with no women’s vote. If it’s not a big issue with GOP and Indy’s, that is a much more important fact. 

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On 8/3/2022 at 12:53 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

That’s not what I said at all, genius. I was all for voting on this stuff.

No offense, but it seems like you were making that argument in this thread…

 

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https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/columnists/2020/07/08/abortion-debate-down-syndrome-fetal-heartbill-tennessee/5368918002/

Debate around abortions because of Down syndrome reveals startling and complicated picture| Opinion

Down syndrome crossed into the news cycle recently when the Tennessee legislature passed the “fetal heartbeat bill,” which, among other things, prohibits any abortion on account of the condition.

 

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 1:09 PM, azgreg said:

He replied to hmhb in the Mississippi abortion thread with this:

  On 12/1/2021 at 4:21 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Well I was wrong that the Mississippi law had little chance.  Maybe I am wrong again.  Can't see the GOP winning any close swing states.

If it’s not a national issue it won’t matter. People will fight it out within their own states. Nobody wants to campaign on the current mainstream Democratic party’s idea of abortion. Which is why they’ve depended upon a god awful judicial ruling and it’s spawn for 50 years. It doesn’t win elections.

Beat me to it.

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On 8/3/2022 at 1:34 PM, NVGiant said:

No offense, but it seems like you were making that argument in this thread…

 

No swing state dems were saved yesterday. The issue, not the politician or party, was up for a vote. Abortion abolition failed in Kansas. Republicans in Kansas voted against it. They voted at a very high level for a primary.

If the state party is stupid, and I’m not saying they aren’t, they’ll carry on with this line. If not this measure will not be what they campaign on.

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On 8/3/2022 at 2:29 PM, Cleopatra said:

i think the republicans strategy next will to be a ballot vote on whether abortions for down's syndrome should be constitutional banned or allowed

it will get emotional and is already happening in other states besides Kansas

but 70% support legalized abortion so i have no idea how it would turn out in the election

 

 

https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2021/06/08/disability-groups-struggle-to-respond-to-latest-abortion-bill/

In debate over Down syndrome/abortion bill, disability groups struggle with how to respond

As challenging a topic as abortion is in the general public, discussing it in the disability community presents even more tangled ethical questions.

But HB 453, the Human Life Nondiscrimination Act/ No Eugenics bill, would prohibit a physician from performing an abortion if the parents express that they’re seeking the procedure because of the “presence or presumed presence of Down syndrome.”

It makes sense but before we should vote on first is who will pay the cradle to grave expenses and care for all babies who would have been aborted.  Then we should increase taxes substantially to pay for it....then we can discuss getting bureaucrats involved in the decision.  

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On 8/3/2022 at 1:56 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

No swing state dems were saved yesterday. The issue, not the politician or party, was up for a vote. Abortion abolition failed in Kansas. Republicans in Kansas voted against it. They voted at a very high level for a primary.

If the state party is stupid, and I’m not saying they aren’t, they’ll carry on with this line. If not this measure will not be what they campaign on.

it also seemed like you said the issue wouldn’t be a campaign issue at all. That independents don’t care. That the issue wouldn’t be national. Etc. I’m not sure any of that is true, though you could be proven right, at least in the immediate mid-terms. A post-Roe world where a significant number of states are making extreme anti-abortion laws has made it a national issue that could drive votes for Dems. We’ll see. We’re in a Brave New Post-Roe World, and the crazies have the conch.

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On 8/3/2022 at 2:11 PM, Akkula said:

It makes sense but before we should vote on that we should vote on who will pay the cradle to grave expenses and care for all babies who would have been aborted.  Then we should increase taxes substantially to pay for it....then we can discuss getting bureaucrats involved in the decision.  

my nextdoor neighbor has a handicap child and he told me a while back his son is covered on medicaid, but i do not know if he had to go to court to do it or what he had to file or the cost  to get it approved

i also do not know how medicaid works and how much is covered

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On 8/3/2022 at 1:24 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

Exactly. Abortion abolitionists will have a bad time in most places.

Yesterday, it wasn't just the pure anti-abortion activists who had a bad time. It was people who think abortion is not a right who had a bad time. The only reason that Kansas' legislature is not implementing a total or almost total abortion ban right now is because the court recognized a right. And it's a right the people, when given a choice, didn't want stripped away. This was not a victory for those who claim people should get to vote. It was a warning that people don't like rights being taken away from them, their daughters, their sisters or their wives.

On 8/3/2022 at 1:24 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

Abortion at any time politicians are going to have a bad time in most places.

The great proliferation of the "abortion at any time" politician is quite the myth. Even the bluest states like California do not give abortion at any time without restrictions, just cuz. That is a boogeyman that has been largely created by the right. Whereas, the anti-abortion extremists have shown us in just the last few months that they are more than willing to enact restrictive regimes that are pretty much right on point with the theocratic horror stories that a lot of people brushed off until now. 

On 8/3/2022 at 1:24 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

For half a century, American law has not squared with what broad American sentiment is on the issue. Let’s vote on it. The extremes that have driven the debate are going to lose over time.

For half a century American Law has squared with broad American sentiment. Roe based the point at which the state has an interest to intervene on the trimester framework, allowing the state to regulate more as the pregnancy went on. Casey re-set that with the viability framework. Broad American sentiment is almost impossible to ascertain on abortion because it gets real complicated, real fast depending on the situation, the questions asked and how one asks them. But one thing has been consistent and remains true - people overwhelmingly approve of a woman's right to have a say about what happens to her body early in pregnancy, and that sentiment slowly erodes the later the pregnancy goes. And Roe/Casey squared a woman's rights over her own body with the political reality that people believe the state can intervene at a certain point. Which is what people want. Well, except for people who want the state to have control over women's bodies. 

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On 8/3/2022 at 12:59 PM, azgreg said:

I think I read somewhere that 70% of new voter registration in Kansas after Dodd were women.

Steve Kornacki said his data indicated that the main factor appeared to be the dreaded - for Republicans - suburban women vote. Kornacki further opined there was no way the margin was as large as it was unless a statistically significant number of Republican women voted no.

The consensus among the pundits I heard was that won't matter in many races come November but could easily be what puts Gretchen Whitmer over the top in the Michigan governor's race, for example.

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On 8/3/2022 at 2:29 PM, smltwnrckr said:

For half a century American Law has squared with broad American sentiment. Roe based the point at which the state has an interest to intervene on the trimester framework, allowing the state to regulate more as the pregnancy went on. Casey re-set that with the viability framework. Broad American sentiment is almost impossible to ascertain on abortion because it gets real complicated, real fast depending on the situation, the questions asked and how one asks them. But one thing has been consistent and remains true - people overwhelmingly approve of a woman's right to have a say about what happens to her body early in pregnancy, and that sentiment slowly erodes the later the pregnancy goes. And Roe/Casey squared a woman's rights over her own body with the political reality that people believe the state can intervene at a certain point. Which is what people want. Well, except for people who want the state to have control over women's bodies. 

I hope the legislature of some red state is now dumb enough to abolish same sex marriage so the SCOTUS decision finding that to be constitutionally protected can also be overturned by the C6. Only a fanatic like Clarence Thomas would overturn the decision which found a constitutional right to contraception but I'm pretty sure that Roberts excepted, the C6-1 will all vote to overturn the right of such sinners to marry each other.

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On 8/3/2022 at 3:32 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

Steve Kornacki said his data indicated that the main factor appeared to be the dreaded - for Republicans - suburban women vote. Kornacki further opined there was no way the margin was as large as it was unless a statistically significant number of Republican women voted no.

The consensus among the pundits I heard was that won't matter in many races come November but could easily be what puts Gretchen Whitmer over the top in the Michigan governor's race, for example.

I think that the impact is really wide open right now. It could be minimal in the general, it could be huge. All that this Kansas vote shows us right now is that this issue does energize voters, that abortion as a right until late in pregnancy is a popular position even in red states, and that its difficult to predict exactly how it will play out. I think the fact that this was such a blowout vote in Kansas portends something significant. In this case, the issue did three things that could spell bad news for the GOP - increased turnout by Democrats who would otherwise have not voted, increased turnout by independents who had no reason to vote otherwise, and drew votes from GOP women. 

And this wasn't even on a specific law to ban abortion. This was just a proposal to allow the legislature to pass a law. 

At the very least, this should be a message to the GOP to ease up on their lunacy (I doubt that), and a message to the Democrats to get more direct propositions and proposals onto state election ballots for the general in 2024. 

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On 8/3/2022 at 3:15 PM, Cleopatra said:

my nextdoor neighbor has a handicap child and he told me a while back his son is covered on medicaid, but i do not know if he had to go to court to do it or what he had to file or the cost  to get it approved

i also do not know how medicaid works and how much is covered

Cons want to moralize from afar to force someone to have a child.  They take no responsibility with their mandates, they just force what they want and say "sayonara" with zero consequence.  Before people start to talk about how the mother should make the right choice from afar, they need to help her make that choice and fund a shit load of programs.  Otherwise, butt the +++++ out.  It is time to:

Democratic Debate GIF by GIPHY News

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 2:12 PM, NVGiant said:

it also seemed like you said the issue wouldn’t be a campaign issue at all. That independents don’t care. That the issue wouldn’t be national. Etc. I’m not sure any of that is true, though you could be proven right, at least in the immediate mid-terms. A post-Roe world where a significant number of states are making extreme anti-abortion laws has made it a national issue that could drive votes for Dems. We’ll see. We’re in a Brave New Post-Roe World, and the crazies have the conch.

Compared to the economy and inflation, it won’t be. The post Dobbs fallout will be messy. It will take years to sort out. But it will sort. The complete abolition of abortion is not a winning issue.

image.gif.4e7f4509acba3a089bbfc407f4c3a024.gif

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On 8/3/2022 at 4:22 PM, thelawlorfaithful said:

Compared to the economy and inflation, it won’t be. The post Dobbs fallout will be messy. It will take years to sort out. But it will sort. The complete abolition of abortion is not a winning issue.

image.gif.4e7f4509acba3a089bbfc407f4c3a024.gif

The economy will be the No. 1 issue for a majority. But abortion looks like it has enough importance to sway a significant number of voters. Maybe not enough in this cycle to save Dems, but only time will tell.

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On 8/3/2022 at 3:53 PM, Akkula said:

Cons want to moralize from afar to force someone to have a child.  They take no responsibility with their mandates, they just force what they want and say "sayonara" with zero consequence.  Before people start to talk about how the mother should make the right choice from afar, they need to help her make that choice and fund a shit load of programs.  Otherwise, butt the +++++ out.  It is time to:

Democratic Debate GIF by GIPHY News

 

 

well said parents of special need kids need to have all the help we can give them!

 

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