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Cleopatra

USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

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On 8/8/2022 at 8:46 PM, Wyobraska said:

NBC having B1G games has to be a bullish sign for Notre Dame to get their own deal with NBC right?

The opposite.  The B1G is not going to provide "shoulder games" to let Notre Dame get its 75M/year payout.  This is the B1G stepping in and telling the domers "we'll take your long time partner right the +++++ away from you...now go get your +++++ing shinebox."

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On 8/8/2022 at 8:45 PM, RebelAlliance said:

The opposite.  The B1G is not going to provide "shoulder games" to let Notre Dame get its 75M/year payout.  This is the B1G stepping in and telling the domers "we'll take your long time partner right the +++++ away from you...now go get your +++++ing shinebox."

Ummm, no.  @Wyobraska is correct.  NBC is not parting with Notre Dame, period.  The B1G can boss almost anybody around, but not TV or Notre Dame.  Either this would be the 'shoulder' games that they are looking for, or they are figuring on ND joining the B1G at some point.

If true.

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Social Mobility is a good measure as to performance of both students and universities.

"The whole number of millionaires thing is childish". Who do you think gives multi-million dollar contributions to universities' athletics and/or academics?

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On 8/8/2022 at 7:30 PM, shizzle787 said:

The Pac-12 deal comes up first though which is an advantage to the league.

But everybody knows that, and will budget accordingly. 

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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On 8/8/2022 at 9:45 PM, RebelAlliance said:

The opposite.  The B1G is not going to provide "shoulder games" to let Notre Dame get its 75M/year payout.  This is the B1G stepping in and telling the domers "we'll take your long time partner right the +++++ away from you...now go get your +++++ing shinebox."

Except ND is primarily the afternoon for NBC.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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ESPN has already made a low-ball offer to the Pac-12 and now it’s clear that ESPN won’t have the kind of serious competition from Fox, CBS or NBC that would force it to increase the offer.  So how exactly is this good news for the Pac-12?

I think the news will just make Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal more desperate than ever to join the B1G, even if it means taking a half-share of B1G TV money for an extended period.  And if those four go, ESPN will be positioned to lock up the rights to an expanded Big 12 that includes the Four Corners schools for the same lowball price it previously offered the Pac-12.

Everything appears to be lining up for this round of realignment to end as a win for all of the major networks, the expanded SEC and the expanded B1G at the expense of the Pac-12 left-behinds, the Big 12 and ACC.

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Thing is, Mongoose, some MW members might find themselves taken in by the PAC leftovers.  Which would make them winners as well.

I'm certain Cal won't be invited to the B1G.  Not because of their academic and research clout, but because of the noise surrounding them. "Bezerkley" isn't going to fly well with Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, etc.

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20 minutes ago, HawaiiMongoose said:

ESPN has already made a low-ball offer to the Pac-12 and now it’s clear that ESPN won’t have the kind of serious competition from Fox, CBS or NBC that would force it to increase the offer.  So how exactly is this good news for the Pac-12?

I think the news will just make Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal more desperate than ever to join the B1G, even if it means taking a half-share of B1G TV money for an extended period.  And if those four go, ESPN will be positioned to lock up the rights to an expanded Big 12 that includes the Four Corners schools for the same lowball price it previously offered the Pac-12.

Everything appears to be lining up for this round of realignment to end as a win for all of the major networks, the expanded SEC and the expanded B1G at the expense of the Pac-12 left-behinds, the Big 12 and ACC.

What was the low ball offer made by ESPN to the P12?  Do we have an actual link from either ESPN or P12?  Not being sarcastic, I just want to know if I missed that somewhere because all I saw was speculation (which I admit could be true but might not be.... sources aren't always correct).

That said, you may be correct that if only ESPN is interested in the P12 then certainly they can & will lowball them... but I am not following how a low ball offer to the P12 will all of a sudden make Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal more desirable to the B10.  Sure, a low ball offer will make O & UW want to jump to the B10 but they already do want to jump.  I'd imagine, especially for O & UW, if the B10 wanted them they would have already told them, take 50% and you can join us.  I just don't think the B10 really cares about O & UW... but that's jmo.

Beyond that I just don't think that it's ESPN or nothing for the P12.  I could be wrong but isn't the whole thing about having content for your network or streaming service?  I have to believe that there has to be more than just one possible option for the P12. 

Again, jmo and I could be totally wrong.

 

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On 8/8/2022 at 9:49 PM, jdgaucho said:

Thing is, Mongoose, some MW members might find themselves taken in by the PAC leftovers.  Which would make them winners as well.

I'm certain Cal won't be invited to the B1G.  Not because of their academic and research clout, but because of the noise surrounding them. "Bezerkley" isn't going to fly well with Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, etc.

I think you're totally wrong there. Ever heard of Mad Town? Ann Arbor is very famous for the Hash Bash and the Naked Mile. Cal fits right in.

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On 8/8/2022 at 9:18 PM, Brew_Poke said:

I think you're totally wrong there. Ever heard of Mad Town? Ann Arbor is very famous for the Hash Bash and the Naked Mile. Cal fits right in.

 

Nope.  First time I've heard of it

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On 8/8/2022 at 9:18 PM, Brew_Poke said:

I think you're totally wrong there. Ever heard of Mad Town? Ann Arbor is very famous for the Hash Bash and the Naked Mile. Cal fits right in.

Exactly most of those Midwest college towns are very liberal, and would love to be associated with Berkeley. Cultural fit won’t be the issue.

Plus Frank the Tank made a post awhile back showing that outside the Midwest; NYC, DC, LA, and the Bay Area are by far the top destinations for big ten graduates. They’ve already covered the other 3, and a Bay Area school makes sense. I’m honestly slightly surprised that they didn’t take Stanford instead of UCLA in the first place.

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On 8/8/2022 at 6:12 PM, Someone Else said:

What was the low ball offer made by ESPN to the P12?  Do we have an actual link from either ESPN or P12?  Not being sarcastic, I just want to know if I missed that somewhere because all I saw was speculation (which I admit could be true but might not be.... sources aren't always correct).

That said, you may be correct that if only ESPN is interested in the P12 then certainly they can & will lowball them... but I am not following how a low ball offer to the P12 will all of a sudden make Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal more desirable to the B10.  Sure, a low ball offer will make O & UW want to jump to the B10 but they already do want to jump.  I'd imagine, especially for O & UW, if the B10 wanted them they would have already told them, take 50% and you can join us.  I just don't think the B10 really cares about O & UW... but that's jmo.

Beyond that I just don't think that it's ESPN or nothing for the P12.  I could be wrong but isn't the whole thing about having content for your network or streaming service?  I have to believe that there has to be more than just one possible option for the P12. 

Again, jmo and I could be totally wrong.

 

The way we know ESPN is low-balling is that the Pac-12 responded to the loss of USC and UCLA by opening its contractual exclusive 30-day broadcast rights negotiating window with Fox and ESPN, Fox declined to participate, and after 30 days there was no renegotiated deal between the Pac-12 and ESPN.

There have been various unconfirmed reports that ESPN’s offer to the Pac-12 is only $25-35 million per school.  To my knowledge none of these reports are from reputable media sources, but an offer in that range would explain why no deal has been reached.

A few days ago Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News reported that the exclusive negotiating window has been extended to allow Pac-12 talks with ESPN to continue while the B1G’s new TV deal is finalized.  And then yesterday multiple media reports emerged that ESPN probably won’t land a portion of the B1G deal, which some folks are interpreting to mean that ESPN will redirect the money it would have spent on the B1G to a bigger offer to the Pac-12.

My take is that those folks are ignoring the reason ESPN probably will be iced out of the B1G deal, which is that CBS and NBC have chosen to spend big bucks on a piece of the B1G action.  (Andrew Marchand of the New York Post reported yesterday that CBS will pay $350 million per year for a share of B1G games.)  By doing so CBS and NBC have effectively taken themselves off the table as major competitors for the Pac-12 deal, which in my view actually reduces the motivation for ESPN to increase its offer to the Pac-12.

As for Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal, my point isn’t that yesterday’s news makes them more desirable to the B1G.  It’s that yesterday’s news makes them more likely to settle for whatever partial-share offer the B1G might be willing to make, if it becomes apparent ESPN won’t be riding to their financial rescue.  Of course ESPN knows that, but will ESPN care?  If any or all of them do bolt, most of the remaining Pac-12 schools will probably land in the Big 12 where ESPN can buy their media rights for even less.  ESPN knows that too.

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On 8/8/2022 at 9:54 PM, Headbutt said:

Ummm, no.  @Wyobraska is correct.  NBC is not parting with Notre Dame, period.  The B1G can boss almost anybody around, but not TV or Notre Dame.  Either this would be the 'shoulder' games that they are looking for, or they are figuring on ND joining the B1G at some point.

If true.

Zero chance that the B1G will play second fiddle to prop up ND's deal.  The second scenario is possible, but ND would already need to be on board.  There's no way that the B1G trusts ND to come on board a couple years down the road while giving them what they desperately need up front.  Warren should be shitcanned immediately if he does.  

The B1G may not be able to boss ND around, but it's been shown that they can tell them to shove their special treatment demands up their ass and walk away from them.  Notice that ND taking their $75M "target" to NBC talk started right after the talks between ND and the B1G appeared to end.

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On 8/8/2022 at 10:11 PM, since1670 said:

Social Mobility is a good measure as to performance of both students and universities.

"The whole number of millionaires thing is childish". Who do you think gives multi-million dollar contributions to universities' athletics and/or academics?

Then, that's already factored into the USNWR (and some other rankings) which include percent of alumni who donate, annual fundraising and endowment size.

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On 8/8/2022 at 10:49 PM, jdgaucho said:

Thing is, Mongoose, some MW members might find themselves taken in by the PAC leftovers.  Which would make them winners as well.

I'm certain Cal won't be invited to the B1G.  Not because of their academic and research clout, but because of the noise surrounding them. "Bezerkley" isn't going to fly well with Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, etc.

Most B1G schools are as liberal as anything on the West Coast.  Ann Arbor and Madison have long been liberal bastions.  Minneapolis and Columbus are solidly blue cities too.  The whole "Bezerkeley" thing won't matter one bit in B1G circles. 

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On 8/9/2022 at 7:25 AM, RebelAlliance said:

Most B1G schools are as liberal as anything on the West Coast.  Ann Arbor and Madison have long been liberal bastions.  Minneapolis and Columbus are solidly blue cities too.  The whole "Bezerkeley" thing won't matter one bit in B1G circles. 

 

Count me as being wrong then.  Nebraska and Iowa corn cobs just don't strike me as the type that would welcome them in.  

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44 minutes ago, HawaiiMongoose said:

The way we know ESPN is low-balling is that the Pac-12 responded to the loss of USC and UCLA by opening its contractual exclusive 30-day broadcast rights negotiating window with Fox and ESPN, Fox declined to participate, and after 30 days there was no renegotiated deal between the Pac-12 and ESPN.

There have been various unconfirmed reports that ESPN’s offer to the Pac-12 is only $25-35 million per school.  To my knowledge none of these reports are from reputable media sources, but an offer in that range would explain why no deal has been reached.

A few days ago Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News reported that the exclusive negotiating window has been extended to allow Pac-12 talks with ESPN to continue while the B1G’s new TV deal is finalized.  And then yesterday multiple media reports emerged that ESPN probably won’t land a portion of the B1G deal, which some folks are interpreting to mean that ESPN will redirect the money it would have spent on the B1G to a bigger offer to the Pac-12.

My take is that those folks are ignoring the reason ESPN probably will be iced out of the B1G deal, which is that CBS and NBC have chosen to spend big bucks on a piece of the B1G action.  (Andrew Marchand of the New York Post reported yesterday that CBS will pay $350 million per year for a share of B1G games.)  By doing so CBS and NBC have effectively taken themselves off the table as major competitors for the Pac-12 deal, which in my view actually reduces the motivation for ESPN to increase its offer to the Pac-12.

As for Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal, my point isn’t that yesterday’s news makes them more desirable to the B1G.  It’s that yesterday’s news makes them more likely to settle for whatever partial-share offer the B1G might be willing to make, if it becomes apparent ESPN won’t be riding to their financial rescue.  Of course ESPN knows that, but will ESPN care?  If any or all of them do bolt, most of the remaining Pac-12 schools will probably land in the Big 12 where ESPN can buy their media rights for even less.  ESPN knows that too.

Thanks.

I understand your premise and it definitely could be correct, but, I am not seeing it that way.

As I said, O & UW, certainly already want to move to the B10 and in my mind, already would have taken a reduced offer... especially if your assumption of a low ball offer from ESPN is correct.  I mean, if those number are right... they certainly already would be jumping to the B10 at 30m, which is what, 30%?  I just don't think the B10 is all that interested at this time.

The rest of it I honestly don't have a feel for... perhaps ESPN is the only game in town for the P12 and they will low ball them... but if the B10 isn't interested in O & UW then they have no where to go.  And I have no idea what Stanford and Cal are thinking... in my mind, Stanford could go indy... and Cal is kinda in limbo?

In the long run the best deal for any network is the combo P10/nB12 conference but getting out of the nB12 fees present a challenge at this time... if/when that can be resolved then I think your final scenario will happen.

And, of course, I don't know anything ... I'm just saying what it all looks like to me.

 

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