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USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

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On 7/18/2022 at 11:30 PM, utgrizfan said:

If the 4 Corners go (as it what was reported as their primary target) they must be expecting the revenue to be enough to justify adding 4 more schools. No way they haven't done their homework.

I would suspect that the TV deal may be more with those 4 but not substantially more than it is currently. There are two B12 plays here:

1. get a bigger chunk of a multi-billion dollar CFP contract when it comes up for renegotiation in the future if you can indirectly kill the PAC and the P5 becomes the P4.

2. long term stability. B12 won't be able to compete with the B1G or SEC monetarily but if additions cause it to be a clear #3 then it is more likely to have opportunity to add at next round of realignment rather than be raided.

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On 7/18/2022 at 10:45 PM, BaylorGuy314 said:

I would suspect that the TV deal may be more with those 4 but not substantially more than it is currently. There are two B12 plays here:

1. get a bigger chunk of a multi-billion dollar CFP contract when it comes up for renegotiation in the future if you can indirectly kill the PAC and the P5 becomes the P4.

2. long term stability. B12 won't be able to compete with the B1G or SEC monetarily but if additions cause it to be a clear #3 then it is more likely to have opportunity to add at next round of realignment rather than be raided.

Long term stability is the key thing here, why I feel they'd take the 4 Corners over Oregon and Washington despite them being worth more. Also reinforces the West with limited travel and travel partners for all. Colorado wouldn't be an outlier either as their close enough to many of the schools.

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On 7/18/2022 at 9:24 PM, raadsel said:

What people keep missing is that it is about $80 million per team to leave the Big 12, two years of TV revenue. The PAC does not have a similar exit fee to prevent teams from leaving. Even if the new TV contracts between the PAC and the Big 12 are similar (and what I've seen suggest that the Big 12 will likely get $8 million more per team per year), then that team has to be able to earn enough to pay that huge exit fee and still make more money. From what we are seeing, there is no way that will work.

Instead, it will depend on the Big 12s new TV deal, what it looks like and if it pays more per team than the PAC deal (or what increase a PAC school to the Big 12 would increase the Big 12 contract)  to see if any PAC teams go to the Big 12.

In two summers the final fiscal year of the b12 GOR will begin. Members who are leaving will need to tell the Conf at the time. Exit fees would be irrelevant.

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On 7/18/2022 at 10:40 PM, Reverend said:

Well I've been told right about everything for  a few weeks now and pretty much know what's gonna happen I think.

It's disappointing but at the same time it's for the best in the long run.

What odds would you place the 4 additions being Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah?

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On 7/19/2022 at 12:04 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

What odds would you place the 4 additions being Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah?

Low because of Stanford. The other three 50% but Gaining traction.

 

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On 7/19/2022 at 2:11 AM, Reverend said:

Low because of Stanford. The other three 50% but Gaining traction.

 

So let’s arbitrarily say the only actual big 12 invitations sent were to Oregon and Washington, but that they could pick the last two, who do you think they would pick?

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A few tidbits from Canzano

• There was early speculation that the Big 12 might chase Arizona State, Arizona, Utah and Colorado. But media reports about that were shot down by my Pac-12 sources. I won’t speak for all four of those schools, but the prevailing sentiment from athletic directors within the Pac-12 is that the remaining 10 universities will stick together and ride out the current media rights negotiations together. I’ll make some calls and report back with updates.

• The Big 12 programs that I think the Pac-12 (and ESPN) would be most interested in are: Kansas, Baylor, TCU and Houston. If the Pac-12 goes hunting, I expect those universities to be primary targets. This is 100-percent about potential television revenue.

• I included Kansas because I think ESPN would covet men’s basketball matchups featuring the ACC’s Duke and North Carolina and the Pac-12’s Arizona and Oregon. Kansas would be an interesting addition.

• The Pac-12 is in an exclusive negotiating period with the ESPN and Fox. That window expires on Aug. 4, but I’m told the parties could come to an agreement before then.

• Pac-12 Media Day is July 29 in Los Angeles. Commissioner George Kliavkoff needs something to sell to the public during that event. I expect he’ll have something of substance. I don’t think we’re going to have to wait until Aug. 4.

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On 7/19/2022 at 2:04 AM, namssa said:

All of his suggestions are impossible.  That guy has been grasping at straws all through this thread.  No big 12 team will pay 80M$ plus GOR breakage fees to join the PAC.  It’s equally preposterous and impossible.  

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On 7/19/2022 at 12:04 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

What odds would you place the 4 additions being Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah?

Zero

still waiting to hear about your Memphis claim as well

The Tree dipshits aren’t go8ng to the b12

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On 7/19/2022 at 12:04 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

What odds would you place the 4 additions being Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah?

I see The 4 Corner schools over Washington and Oregon only because why would they invest in teams who would leave at the first opportunity. The Ad's claiming they are going to stick together have no other answer to give, they have to appease the PAC while entertaining the BIG12, it's a generalist answer.

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ESPN wants late night programming so their best interest is in Pac-12 but also FOX is going to be involved somewhat as well as they will want some late night programming.

UC-Regents can't do anything to block the move, all they can really do is stern language and possibly not give as much funding to UCLA but otherwise there isn't anything they can do. 

Arizona and Utah have been the only schools been seeing anything about with potential Big 12 movement.

But none of the schools are going to reveal their hands until they are ready to reveal them, they are all going to say the right things, do the right things as they don't want to show their hands. 

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On 7/19/2022 at 12:16 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

So let’s arbitrarily say the only actual big 12 invitations sent were to Oregon and Washington, but that they could pick the last two, who do you think they would pick?

Colorado and Utah. I think Oregon and Washington played their Big 10 hand early so the Big 12 might be nervous on inviting them. Stanford is worth more but supposedly they won't be in a conference with religious schools.

But let's say the Big12 invites Washington, Oregon, and Stanford and it's a big improvement in the media deal over what the PAC gets offered, I think they would go. But I have no insight on what the Big 12 does, what they look for in schools, or anything like that. All I know is Arizona seems to be the most vocal about a move and Every other school swears they are staying together. I think it's every man for themselves.

The WSU AD said people will be surprised how much the PAC media deal is gonna be. We shall see.

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On 7/18/2022 at 3:36 PM, AztecSU said:

Sources are also telling me we’ll know more at a later date. 

ouija board GIF

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On 7/18/2022 at 5:40 PM, Aztecmg said:

So it looks like if the PAC expands, SDSU is guaranteed to get in? 

No.

Nothing in life is guaranteed.

As the PAC stands now there is not a lot of interest in SDSU. SDSU only gets in if there is a rush for the doors.

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On 7/18/2022 at 5:44 PM, Reverend said:

From what I have seen, read, and been told SDSU is the #1 candidate for the Big 12 and PAC from the G5. And don't believe the SMU to the PAC rumors. Not happening.

Also, the Big 12 has no problem taking G5 schools. The PAC does. I just posted an interview in there with a Cal spokesman. Not sure who it is.  I do know it's on the California schools best interest to listen to their media partners because of the PAC gets gutted they won't have anywhere to go. And the MWC may not take them either. If they have other P5 choices anyway.

Hmmmmmm, they were okay with Utah back in 2010

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On 7/18/2022 at 5:58 PM, Aztecmg said:

Thank you both for responding! I apologize for not being as up-to-date as everyone here, but what is likelier between PAC and B12 for SDSU?

The PAC would be SDSU's first choice. The New12 would be #2. 

By the same token, there is not a lot of love from either Conference for SDSU. Think fallback plan.

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