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Cleopatra

USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

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3 minutes ago, utgrizfan said:

I'm not saying they're going to lowball the P10 I'm just saying it's going to depend on how much money they are going to offer. If it's not a figure team's like I could see a few moving to the BIG12 especially if the money is better.

I'm saying that espn knows exactly what you just wrote... they will offer enough to keep the p12 together or they end up with nothing...  well, nothing worthwhile anyway...  Seems to me anyway, that p10 is in a good bargaining position with espn not a bad one.

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On 7/18/2022 at 9:24 PM, Someone Else said:

I'm saying that espn knows exactly what you just wrote... they will offer enough to keep the p12 together or they end up with nothing...  well, nothing worthwhile anyway...  Seems to me anyway, that p10 is in a good bargaining position with espn not a bad one.

We will have to see, someone posted an article/tweet about an ESPN writer bashing the PAC10s value while they're still in negotiations with them.

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1 minute ago, utgrizfan said:

We will have to see, someone posted an article/tweet about an ESPN writer bashing the PAC10s value while they're still in negotiations with them.

Well, yes, we'll certainly see when it all comes down.  I admit I don't know anything these are just my opinions. 

But it makes little sense to not give the p10 enough money to stay together if you want content. 

and whatever a writer does has no affect on negotiations... that guy isn't involved ... he's just trying to get clicks....

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On 7/18/2022 at 4:50 PM, utgrizfan said:

I only like this idea for purely selfish reasons. The more MWC teams that get raided increases the chance for Montana and MSU to move up. NMSU, UTEP and the Montanas would be the perfect 4 to replace them.

Perhaps, but not necessarily.

Suppose the Pac-12 loses 4-6 more members, and to save the conference chooses to backfill with 6-8 MWC schools.  In that scenario it’s possible the remaining MWC members would be offered a home in the AAC and would choose to go that route rather than rebuild with CUSA and FCS schools.

I’m guessing Reverend’s comment that “it’s disappointing but at the same time it's for the best in the long run” might have something to do with that possible outcome.

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On 7/18/2022 at 9:33 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Perhaps, but not necessarily.

Suppose the Pac-12 loses 4-6 more members, and to save the conference chooses to backfill with 6-8 MWC schools.  In that scenario it’s possible the remaining MWC members would be offered a home in the AAC and would choose to go that route rather than rebuild with CUSA and FCS schools.

I’m guessing Reverend’s comment that “it’s disappointing but at the same time it's for the best in the long run” might have something to do with that possible outcome.

You're not wrong, realistically depending on how bad if they're raided it could easily turn into a no win situation for the MWC. I'll still hope for it but sure as hell am not expecting it.

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On 7/18/2022 at 5:30 PM, utgrizfan said:

Canzano’s “expert source” here is a politician… from Washington State.  Not really convinced the guy understands California politics as much as he claims to.

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On 7/18/2022 at 5:36 PM, utgrizfan said:

You're not wrong, realistically depending on how bad if they're raided it could easily turn into a no win situation for the MWC. I'll still hope for it but sure as hell am not expecting it.

So many possibilities right now… none of us is wrong yet, LOL.

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On 7/18/2022 at 10:18 PM, utgrizfan said:

Personally I've seen just as many if not more fans here in Utah supporting the idea of being in a conference with BYU again rather than against it.

Perhaps. I don't browse the Ute boards like some others. I just know they hate each other. Texas and Texas A&M hated each other so much for years it was all anyone talked about weeks leading up to the game. They separated and are back together again now. Hate can be good for business.

If there are really two PAC schools looking to defect (say, Utah and AZ) then I do think it's likely that the Big 12 ends up with AZ, ASU, CU, Utah, Oregon, and UW in fairly short order (if not this year, soon). The monetary difference would just be too much to overcome, I'd suspect. That's a guess. Like I mentioned, I saw the B12 left for dead several times and it always found a way to make it. 

If the PAC is reduced to WSU, Oregon State, Cal, and Stanford, I would suspect they'd take 4-6 MWC schools in order to retain NCAA credits and other monetary benefits. Probably backfill with SDSU, Fresno, Boise, and one other right out the gate to get back to 8. I don't know if there is a financial benefit to going back to 10 or 12. Maybe the new members would push for that for stability. 

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On 7/18/2022 at 8:40 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Canzano’s “expert source” here is a politician… from Washington State.  Not really convinced the guy understands California politics as much as he claims to.

The politicians and the machine that run the state are Bay Area.  The economics and population are SoCal.  I don't doubt that Gavin wants the SoCal schools in the pac 12.  I also don't doubt that USC alumni and boosters don't give a damn what Gavin wants.  And UCLA has to go if USC goes.

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On 7/18/2022 at 9:52 PM, CPslograd said:

The politicians and the machine that run the state are Bay Area.  The economics and population are SoCal.  I don't doubt that Gavin wants the SoCal schools in the pac 12.  I also don't doubt that USC alumni and boosters don't give a damn what Gavin wants.  And UCLA has to go if USC goes.

On the off chance UCLA is blocked (don't think it's likely at all) would the BIG10 then go for Stanford? Being a Private University they wouldn't have to deal with those issues plus would be dangling the Carrot to ND to have 2 of their traditional rivals in the Conference.

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On 7/18/2022 at 8:55 PM, utgrizfan said:

On the off chance UCLA is blocked (don't think it's likely at all) would the BIG10 then go for Stanford? Being a Private University they wouldn't have to deal with those issues plus would be dangling the Carrot to ND to have 2 of their traditional rivals in the Conference.

Yes I think they probably would, but UCLA isn't going to be blocked.  Too many UCLA DNC donors for politicians to stir up that hornets nest.

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On 7/18/2022 at 11:03 PM, namssa said:

 

The PAC will have the best two brands of the PAC or B12. But those two brands are also lusting for another conference and everyone knows it so stability will always be a concern. The Big 12 contract would also be worth more and would be worth substantially more with PAC additions especially if Oregon and UW were part of those additions.

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On 7/18/2022 at 10:10 PM, AztecSU said:

We’ll find out in two summers

What people keep missing is that it is about $80 million per team to leave the Big 12, two years of TV revenue. The PAC does not have a similar exit fee to prevent teams from leaving. Even if the new TV contracts between the PAC and the Big 12 are similar (and what I've seen suggest that the Big 12 will likely get $8 million more per team per year), then that team has to be able to earn enough to pay that huge exit fee and still make more money. From what we are seeing, there is no way that will work.

Instead, it will depend on the Big 12s new TV deal, what it looks like and if it pays more per team than the PAC deal (or what increase a PAC school to the Big 12 would increase the Big 12 contract)  to see if any PAC teams go to the Big 12.

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On 7/18/2022 at 10:27 PM, raadsel said:

Interesting Tweet from a CBS Sports writer:

 

If the 4 Corners go (as it what was reported as their primary target) they must be expecting the revenue to be enough to justify adding 4 more schools. No way they haven't done their homework.

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