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Cleopatra

USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

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On 8/19/2022 at 8:45 AM, LoboMan59 said:

Yes they do… every decision from here on out, by a school or a conference, will be all about the $$$. PAC 10 as it stands right now, was offered 25-30 million. If they lose any more schools to the B10 (a very real possibility), that number will drop even further.  The B12 will get more than that, as it stands right now, and they can also add more tv  inventory… the value in the Pac schools, is late night football inventory. If the B1O takes 4 or even six schools for their “western arm” that’s their highly valued “B10 after dark” programming.

If the B12 adds 4 PAC schools, they would also have their own “after dark” programming as well. If the B12 doesn’t want the PNW schools, the only schools left in the Pac would be WSU and OSU. The PAC will die as a conference, and those two schools will join the MWC… ESPN will then start to court the MWC because of their desperation to have late night football programming as well, so we may see a bidding war between Fox, CBSSN, and ESPN, for the MWC… or FOX will just drop us because of their deal with the B1O. 
Personally, I see the MWC schools getting a boost in their tv contract, when this is all said and done. And we may end up being ESPN partners again.

you are forgetting travel

the Big12 has schools in West Virgina and Florida

it would be crazy

and they cannot afford the travel like the Big Ten can

I think the Pac12 will add from the Mountain West

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On 8/19/2022 at 11:47 AM, Cleopatra said:

you are forgetting travel

the Big12 has schools in West Virgina and Florida

it would be crazy

and they cannot afford the travel like the Big Ten can

I think the Pac12 will add from the Mountain West

The PAC as we know it is dead but yes the name will live on as a G6 conference, or G5 if enough schools come over.  You overrate the travel component.

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On 8/19/2022 at 9:47 AM, Cleopatra said:

you are forgetting travel

the Big12 has schools in West Virgina and Florida

it would be crazy

and they cannot afford the travel like the Big Ten can

I think the Pac12 will add from the Mountain West

That’s why schools are moving to other conferences as a group. Individually, yes, travel costs are prohibitive, but that cost can be somewhat mitigated by teaming up with other schools in their region, especially when it comes to the Olympic Sports. 
And I can envision there will be some schools that will drop some of their more obscure Olympic team sports. Title 9 issues will be an ongoing for years.

Any team joining the B1O will be making enough money to help cover that cost, and when the real meat of their new contract kicks in in 2025/26, they'll be making even more. Travel costs for current/new B1O teams won’t be that big an issue.

Travel costs for current/new Big12 schools won’t be as bad either because of their more regional footprint. And traveling to Cincinnati or Florida, won’t be a deal breaker for either, if  they schedule right. With all the money being thrown about for realignment TV contracts, that will ease that issue greatly. 

"Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson, make the same mistake twice and it becomes a choice."
 

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On 8/19/2022 at 9:05 AM, LoboMan59 said:

That’s why schools are moving to other conferences as a group. Individually, yes, travel costs are prohibitive, but that cost can be somewhat mitigated by teaming up with other schools in their region, especially when it comes to the Olympic Sports. 
And I can envision there will be some schools that will drop some of their more obscure Olympic team sports. Title 9 issues will be an ongoing for years.

Any team joining the B1O will be making enough money to help cover that cost, and when the real meat of their new contract kicks in in 2025/26, they'll be making even more. Travel costs for current/new B1O teams won’t be that big an issue.

Travel costs for current/new Big12 schools won’t be as bad either because of their more regional footprint. And traveling to Cincinnati or Florida, won’t be a deal breaker for either, if  they schedule right. With all the money being thrown about for realignment TV contracts, that will ease that issue greatly. 

i hate that they are killing regional rivalry

i think it would be so much better if they kept things but since it is rumor that Oregon, Stanford, Washington and Cal will join the Big Ten then I prefer to build a regional conference not farther east than Texas

there are good options to build the Pac12, starting with San Diego State and Colorado State , they also are academic fits

but I think you are probably right on all this

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On 8/19/2022 at 10:18 AM, Cleopatra said:

i hate that they are killing regional rivalry

i think it would be so much better if they kept things but since it is rumor that Oregon, Stanford, Washington and Cal will join the Big Ten then I prefer to build a regional conference not farther east than Texas

there are good options to build the Pac12, starting with San Diego State and Colorado State , they also are academic fits

but I think you are probably right on all this

Unfortunately, and has been discussed many times here already, academics is being forcefully pushed down the staircase! In the money game, academic’s won’t be a consideration.

You would like to see the Pac stick together, and I would like to see the MWC stick together… but that’s out of our control, because as you know… money talks.

The key to the Pac10 sticking together, is if Washington and Oregon turn down big money to stay put… but I don’t see that happening.

"Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson, make the same mistake twice and it becomes a choice."
 

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On 8/18/2022 at 7:58 PM, SDSUfan said:

Random:

LA Metro - 13.2 million 

Add SDSU. - 3.3 M 

Houston. - 6.3 M 

Kansas and K St -  3M 

That's 12 + Million and kills the B12. 

Sounds crazy but when you think about it, Houston " owns" its market as much as SC and UCLA "own" theirs. 

SDSU actually owns its market as would the two Kansas teams, who also share a border and a Big 8 history with Colorado. 

I'm inventing a new college football version of Risk.

K-State brings nada and although KU brings great basketball, it also brings among the worst football programs in the country. And why in the world would fans of true western schools want to take a roadie to one of the most boring states in the union? Ergo, the Kansas schools are like owning Kamchatka.

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On 8/18/2022 at 11:57 PM, crixus said:

Blocking UCLA's move to Big Ten could have massive fallout for UC regents

https://news.yahoo.com/blocking-uclas-move-big-ten-140346574.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

They won't block the move. They will try to get Cal in. Expansion probably will be Noted dame or Cal if that doesn't get done. If Cal is left out, I expect a buy game for UCLA Cal forever.

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On 8/19/2022 at 11:36 AM, LoboMan59 said:

Unfortunately, and has been discussed many times here already, academics is being forcefully pushed down the staircase! In the money game, academic’s won’t be a consideration.

You would like to see the Pac stick together, and I would like to see the MWC stick together… but that’s out of our control, because as you know… money talks.

The key to the Pac10 sticking together, is if Washington and Oregon turn down big money to stay put… but I don’t see that happening.

Academic considerations are a luxury. There are only two conferences that can afford that luxury, and one of them doesn't care. The PAC's mistake is in thinking they're the other one. 

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If I was the other 8 pac schools and UW/Ore refuse to sign a serious GOR why not threaten reduced shares until b10 comes to their rescue in 4-6 years? What do they have to lose?

If they are going to eff everyone else over for their own self interest by not signing a long term GOR why shouldnt the other members return the favor? Wonder how UW and Ore would do with 50% shares for the next few years or so?

 

 

 

 

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On 8/19/2022 at 12:54 PM, MrBug708 said:

They won't block the move. They will try to get Cal in. Expansion probably will be Noted dame or Cal if that doesn't get done. If Cal is left out, I expect a buy game for UCLA Cal forever.

The number I heard yesterday is that USC and UCLA leaving will cost the rest of the schools 13M/year each but that USC is worth 9.5 of that. In other words, UCLA leaving will cost Cal 3.5M a year in lost media money. I'm pretty sure that UCLA can reach down into the couch cushions now and find the money to make Cal whole every year, plus give some promises that they will lobby strongly on Cal's behalf with the B1G. 

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On 8/19/2022 at 11:24 AM, AztecSU said:

If I was the other 8 pac schools and UW/Ore refuse to sign a serious GOR why not threaten reduced shares until b10 comes to their rescue in 4-6 years? What do they have to lose?

If they are going to eff everyone else over for their own self interest by not signing a long term GOR why shouldnt the other members return the favor? Wonder how UW and Ore would do with 50% shares for the next few years or so?

fowl has an excellent contact as to inclinations of the B1G and he's said that although the conference reportedly isn't finished expanding, the targets are from the ACC, not the Pac. If that's so, what the Pac could lose from such a strategy is having the two PNW schools leave for the B12 soon.

Add this: As much as I've always wanted to see the Aztecs in the Pac, with almost each passing week I become more concerned that conference is being negatively influenced by the mindset of academics as clueless about sports as Steve Weber was circa 2000.

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On 8/19/2022 at 2:58 AM, southfresno said:

Sure, they would simply backfill.

Someone said several weeks ago on the realignment board that under the NCAA structure, a conference is deemed to become defunct once it contains less than three members. I don't know if that's true but you would think that at a minimum it would lose its basketball tournament credits. That said, however, I don't see WSU, OSU and Cal going anywhere. Because why would any conference superior to the MWC want them?

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3 hours ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Just to piggyback the big 12 is not interested in sdsu.  At all. There is zero smoke there, only wishful thinking.  It would be a better move for sdsu but the only reason other western teams are in any consideration now is to further destabilize the power structure-kill conference competition-and sdsu has zero bearing on that.

 The reason the BIG 10 could go against its first inclination and take more PAC schools isn’t because any of those schools have increased their value (they haven’t), the value comes from destroying the competition. Yormark and Warren have discussed the value in decreasing the number of power conferences, what the big 10 might do and the big 12 will do is just the next step in the process-that we all should know here by now.  

Might be best to not piggy back my posts... I have been doing my best to ignore you but it's tough if you quote my post, ehh? 

The b12 may or may not have interest in SDSU.  You provide, and have, no information, nor do you have some special source (mole).... only your opinion.... If you simply said "in my opinion" when you make your posts instead of trying to sound like a know it all you wouldn't annoy me so much.  I feel like I've mentioned that before, right?

As for destroying the competition... like they just now realized that was possible?????  and that it would now be a benefit and they didn't know that before??? zero logic there...

they knew all of that 6 weeks ago when they said Oregon & Washington did not provide enough value at this time... had "destroy the P12" been a thing for them they would have taken Oregon and Washington 6 weeks ago when they asked if they could join.... that would have done it right there.  

Everyone here and 99% of those in the media are guessing... guessing... guessing

Please don't piggy back on my posts and I won't comment on your posts... deal? (that's meant to be rhetorical)

 

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On 8/19/2022 at 7:23 AM, RebelAlliance said:

BYU would be the sacrificial lamb in that discussion as in "OK, we'll take the CSU school, but we draw the line at BYU so find someone else to pair with them and we're in."  Stanford and UW would definitely back them on that.  

I don't disagree and think that if the rumor has any validity, it's likely based on SDSU suggesting to the Pac - unofficially of course - that the best two-school additions that conference could now make would be the Aztecs and BYU.

Keep in mind that contrary to most schools in the MWC, SDSU no longer hates the Provostanians.

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On 8/19/2022 at 12:05 PM, Someone Else said:

Might be best to not piggy back my posts... I have been doing my best to ignore you but it's tough if you quote my post, ehh? 

The b12 may or may not have interest in SDSU.  You provide, and have, no information, nor do you have some special source (mole).... only your opinion.... If you simply said "in my opinion" when you make your posts instead of trying to sound like a know it all you wouldn't annoy me so much.  I feel like I've mentioned that before, right?

As for destroying the competition... like they just now realized that was possible?????  and that it would now be a benefit and they didn't know that before??? zero logic there...

they knew all of that 6 weeks ago when they said Oregon & Washington did not provide enough value at this time... had "destroy the P12" been a thing for them they would have taken Oregon and Washington 6 weeks ago when they asked if they could join.... that would have done it right there.  

Everyone here and 99% of those in the media are guessing... guessing... guessing

Please don't piggy back on my posts and I won't comment on your posts... deal? (that's meant to be rhetorical)

Bingo.

When I see that debate-challenged guy's name at the top of a post, I immediately scroll through it. As such, I'm left to just assume he bagged on SDSU in the post you refer to.

Stunner told me via PM about a year or so ago that from snooping around he learned the guy apparently has a BA from Houston and a master's from UCF. If that's accurate, it's understandable why he once was a major honk for the Aresco Athletic Conference and how GD great it allegedly then was. I thought about that yesterday while listening to the Chris Childers/Rick Neuheisel show on SiriusXM and they had Aresco on. Among other things, Aresco said the AAC has now abandoned its "P6" campaign. Gee, I wonder why. :loser:

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On 8/19/2022 at 12:05 PM, Someone Else said:

Might be best to not piggy back my posts... I have been doing my best to ignore you but it's tough if you quote my post, ehh? 

The b12 may or may not have interest in SDSU.  You provide, and have, no information, nor do you have some special source (mole).... only your opinion.... If you simply said "in my opinion" when you make your posts instead of trying to sound like a know it all you wouldn't annoy me so much.  I feel like I've mentioned that before, right?

As for destroying the competition... like they just now realized that was possible?????  and that it would now be a benefit and they didn't know that before??? zero logic there...

they knew all of that 6 weeks ago when they said Oregon & Washington did not provide enough value at this time... had "destroy the P12" been a thing for them they would have taken Oregon and Washington 6 weeks ago when they asked if they could join.... that would have done it right there.  

Everyone here and 99% of those in the media are guessing... guessing... guessing

Please don't piggy back on my posts and I won't comment on your posts... deal? (that's meant to be rhetorical)

 

Of course, not taking Oregon and Washington has created a level of desperation in them that would likely allow the BIG to add them at a significant discount. I keep hearing talk about Stanford but they may have issues with Warren's recent statement about paying its players. I really don't see the BIG taking more than 2 more PAC schools., at least quickly. The need to leave a door opened for Notre Dame. Could the PAC survive and backfill or would this drive the corner schools to bail?

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On 8/19/2022 at 10:49 AM, 818SUDSFan said:

K-State brings nada and although KU brings great basketball, it also brings among the worst football programs in the country. And why in the world would fans of true western schools want to take a roadie to one of the most boring states in the union? Ergo, the Kansas schools are like owning Kamchatka.

It's just fun with numbers

BUT

It's also about TV eyeballs.  I'm not sure it matters where those eyeballs are.  LA City and Kansas aren't all that different comparatively.

image.png.35e12646cd11875e9c57083ec237dd9e.png

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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On 8/19/2022 at 10:54 AM, MrBug708 said:

They won't block the move. They will try to get Cal in. Expansion probably will be Noted dame or Cal if that doesn't get done. If Cal is left out, I expect a buy game for UCLA Cal forever.

They probably won't but notice the center has shifted from "they can't" to "they probably won't".

I still say there's a play and that is for the state to step up and fund/facilitate/subsidize a complete modernization of the Rose Bowl to reduce

seat count and add revenue generation, if there's real interest in keeping UCLA in the Pac.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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On 8/19/2022 at 11:56 AM, 818SUDSFan said:

fowl has an excellent contact as to inclinations of the B1G and he's said that although the conference reportedly isn't finished expanding, the targets are from the ACC, not the Pac. If that's so, what the Pac could lose from such a strategy is having the two PNW schools leave for the B12 soon.

Add this: As much as I've always wanted to see the Aztecs in the Pac, with almost each passing week I become more concerned that conference is being negatively influenced by the mindset of academics as clueless about sports as Steve Weber was circa 2000.

If this is true, then the BIG may be actively trying to destabilize the PAC for some reason. I mean we all know they want ACC schools but they wont have a chance for another 12 years+...so UW/Ore really should sign a say 10 years to maximize their earnings in the meantime while not harming their chances to leave when the time comes. 

 

 

 

 

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On 8/19/2022 at 12:23 PM, SDSUfan said:

It's just fun with numbers

BUT

It's also about TV eyeballs.  I'm not sure it matters where those eyeballs are.  LA City and Kansas aren't all that different comparatively.

image.png.35e12646cd11875e9c57083ec237dd9e.png

Hahaha...  Oh man.  Yeah, let's give them all of Kansas and limit UCLA to the City of LA.  There are an ADDITIONAL 6-7 million in LA COUNTY alone, NOT including Orange County, Ventura County, San Bernardino County, or Riverside County.  

60% of the time, it works every time.  

Stats man, Twain was right.  

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