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Cleopatra

USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

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On 8/10/2022 at 8:05 AM, Koji Vu said:

While Stanford is the more national brand, Cal probably tracks a bit better in their home market.

It wasn't necessarily so when I last moved away in 1983 but because of subsequent great success of the 49ers, the Giants and the Warriors, the Bay Area has become very much a professional sports location.

Granted, Cal and Stanford have both had some football success but in each case, it was fleeting. For a brief time on Saturday, December 4, 2004 it looked like Cal might end up playing for the NC. The Bears were 9-1 with their only loss at 9-0 USC by six points and Cal had lousy Southern Miss whereas the Trojans had their arch rivals. USC ended up beating .500 UCLA by just five points while Cal dispatched USM. Speculation was that if USC had lost, Cal would have played for the BCA championship. Instead, Cal ended up in the Holiday Bowl where the demoralized Bears were upset by Texas Tech and that program hasn't come close to such excellence since. Stanford had a run of 76-18 over 7 years but has since gone 9-5, 9-4, 4-8, 4-2 and 3-9 and although it's not the end-all, be-all of such things, David Shaw is now #4 on the Coaches Hot Seat list.

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On 8/10/2022 at 2:23 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

At least with regard to the first half of each season, I can't agree regarding those two schools. See this:

Phoenix, AZ
Weather averages
 
Month High / Low(°F) Rain

January 68°/ 45° 3 days

February 72° / 48° 2 days

March 77° / 52° 3 days

April 86° / 59° 1 day

May 94° / 67° 0 days

June 104° / 76° 0 days

July 106° / 82° 2 days

August 105° / 81° 2 days

September 100° / 75° 1 day

October 89° / 64° 1 day

November 76° / 51° 1 day

December 68° / 44°2 days
 
When my niece and her son moved to Phoenix from here in L.A., I was shocked (shocked, I tell ya) to learn that most Little League games are played at night. And look at the average high temp for September and October. No wants to attend a game in that kind of heat, much less play in one.

 

I know someone raised in Coastal California who used to complain about Fresno summers. Then they moved to Phoenix. They no longer make comments about a Central Valley summer.

Average number of days over 100 degrees:

Fresno - 38 days per year

Phoenix - 111 days per year

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On 8/10/2022 at 3:13 PM, FresnoFacts said:

I know someone raised in Coastal California who used to complain about Fresno summers. Then they moved to Phoenix. They no longer make comments about a Central Valley summer.

Average number of days over 100 degrees:

Fresno - 38 days per year

Phoenix - 111 days per year

And the rapidly growing population in Prescott, the Valley of the Sun and Tucson has been gradually raising the state's average daily temperature.

 (Personally, I think that everything in Arizona south of the Flagstaff/Cottonwood area is awful.)

2016DaysAbove_arizona_average.jpg

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On 8/10/2022 at 3:05 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

It wasn't necessarily so when I last moved away in 1983 but because of subsequent great success of the 49ers, the Giants and the Warriors, the Bay Area has become very much a professional sports location.

Granted, Cal and Stanford have both had some football success but in each case, it was fleeting. For a brief time on Saturday, December 4, 2004 it looked like Cal might end up playing for the NC. The Bears were 9-1 with their only loss at 9-0 USC by six points and Cal had lousy Southern Miss whereas the Trojans had their arch rivals. USC ended up beating .500 UCLA by just five points while Cal dispatched USM. Speculation was that if USC had lost, Cal would have played for the BCA championship. Instead, Cal ended up in the Holiday Bowl where the demoralized Bears were upset by Texas Tech and that program hasn't come close to such excellence since. Stanford had a run of 76-18 over 7 years but has since gone 9-5, 9-4, 4-8, 4-2 and 3-9 and although it's not the end-all, be-all of such things, David Shaw is now #4 on the Coaches Hot Seat list.

Yeah Cal had some great years under Tedford. I remember in 2007 they were 5-0 and ranked #2 in the country with two top 25 wins over Tennessee and @Oregon. Earlier that night #1 LSU lost in 3OT to Kentucky, and all Cal had to do was beat Oregon State at home to get the #1 ranking. They went into halftime up 1, but ended up losing 28-31. That was really the beginning of the end for Tedford. They went on to lose 5 of their final 6 games, and the program started declining from there. After finishing ranked 3 straight seasons, they haven't finished ranked in the AP since 2006. 

They've had an incredible amount of talent; DeSean Jackson, Aaron Rogers, Marshawn Lynch, etc, but very little to show for it. It's amazing they haven't been to a Rose Bowl since the 50s. 

I love going to games in Berkeley, and enjoying following their program. But damn their fans are obnoxious. Their message board is just unBEARable :P to read. 

 

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On 8/10/2022 at 3:31 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

And the rapidly growing population in Prescott, the Valley of the Sun and Tucson has been gradually raising the state's average daily temperature.

 (Personally, I think that everything in Arizona south of the Flagstaff/Cottonwood area is awful.)

2016DaysAbove_arizona_average.jpg

 

Yep, I've been laughing for years at all the Coastal Californians moving to both Vegas and Phoenix. Like my example above many of them are the same former Southern California/Bay Area residents who used to complain about the Central Valley weather. They said they didn't like heat but them moved to where it was hotter.

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On 8/9/2022 at 10:41 PM, Headbutt said:

Just a guess, but I don't think that CU, UU, ASU, and AU would bitch a ton about playing that early game.  Frankly, a 1PM start in the Mtn time zone is prime football time.  The content is there.  If not, ESPN tells a couple of New 12 teams to pack their bags and head west.  Just as likely as the four corner schools heading east, more so actually.

Again, many of the time slots ESPN will be trying to fill are the 10 AM MST/MDT time slot -- I believe that CU, UU, ASU and UA would have an issue with that time; particularly ASU and UA prior to the switch to Standard time (currently Nov. 6), since they spend the first 7 or 8 games of the season basically in the Pacific Time Zone (since Arizona doesn't switch to Daylight time).

Also, as others pointed out, schools will not go to the PAC from the Big 12 because of the buyout. There PAC contract won't be big enough, even adding Big 12 schools, to make up the cost of the buyout -- not to mention, there aren't 4 schools in the Big 12 that the PAC administrators would invite (academics being too weak). 

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But have BYU and Houston (UCF and Cincinnati are irrelevant to this discussion) actually joined the Big 12 already?

As an example, SDSU and Boise verbally committed to the Big East more than a year before they would have began playing in that conference and both rescinded that verbal commitment six months or so before it became effective.

Accordingly, it's my assumption that BYU and/or Houston could do the same within the next year-plus and join the Pac without penalty. (Not that any B12 honks here would acknowledge that.)

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On 8/10/2022 at 8:38 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

But have BYU and Houston (UCF and Cincinnati are irrelevant to this discussion) actually joined the Big 12 already?

As an example, SDSU and Boise verbally committed to the Big East more than a year before they would have began playing in that conference and both rescinded that verbal commitment six months or so before it became effective.

Accordingly, it's my assumption that BYU and/or Houston could do the same within the next year-plus and join the Pac without penalty. (Not that any B12 honks here would acknowledge that.)

TCU paid a buyout to the Big East after they got their B12 invite (an important difference).  All 4 new schools participated in B12 spring meetings.  Assumptions, as they say...

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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On 8/10/2022 at 4:31 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

And the rapidly growing population in Prescott, the Valley of the Sun and Tucson has been gradually raising the state's average daily temperature.

 (Personally, I think that everything in Arizona south of the Flagstaff/Cottonwood area is awful.)

2016DaysAbove_arizona_average.jpg

The Chiracahua Mountains in SE Az is pretty awesome. Especially in the winter months and the monsoon season.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 8/10/2022 at 6:38 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

But have BYU and Houston (UCF and Cincinnati are irrelevant to this discussion) actually joined the Big 12 already?

As an example, SDSU and Boise verbally committed to the Big East more than a year before they would have began playing in that conference and both rescinded that verbal commitment six months or so before it became effective.

Accordingly, it's my assumption that BYU and/or Houston could do the same within the next year-plus and join the Pac without penalty. (Not that any B12 honks here would acknowledge that.)

If the PAC changes course and decides they can live with BYU the b12 days are numbered. 

 

 

 

 

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On 8/10/2022 at 7:03 PM, AztecSU said:

If the PAC changes course and decides they can live with BYU the b12 days are numbered. 

At the risk of sounding like a something, something Brandon whatever lunatic, I urge you to not entirely dismiss the possibility.

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On 8/10/2022 at 9:04 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

At the risk of sounding like a something, something Brandon whatever lunatic, I urge you to not entirely dismiss the possibility.

I kind of have.  I just don't see BYU ever in the Pac, for multiple reasons.

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On 8/10/2022 at 7:38 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

But have BYU and Houston (UCF and Cincinnati are irrelevant to this discussion) actually joined the Big 12 already?

As an example, SDSU and Boise verbally committed to the Big East more than a year before they would have began playing in that conference and both rescinded that verbal commitment six months or so before it became effective.

Accordingly, it's my assumption that BYU and/or Houston could do the same within the next year-plus and join the Pac without penalty. (Not that any B12 honks here would acknowledge that.)

Would be an interesting take and frankly I think it would be a smart move for the PAC along with adding SDSU and maybe a travel partner for Houston, SMU for example (since they don't have an 80 million exit fee but not my first choice). Wouldn't be a bad looking Conference. The other option would be to snag BYU and Houston now, wait for the BIG12 GOR to expire and then pick who they want.

 

 

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On 8/10/2022 at 9:57 PM, utgrizfan said:

 The other option would be to snag BYU and Houston now, wait for the BIG12 GOR to expire and then pick who they want.

 

 

One problem with that theory...

 

That 80 million exit fee isnt the GOR. Its a completely separate thing.  And they'll sign a new GOR as soon as they have a new TV deal (as will the P12/10).

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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On 8/10/2022 at 8:00 PM, RSF said:

One problem with that theory...

 

That 80 million exit fee isnt the GOR. Its a completely separate thing.  And they'll sign a new GOR as soon as they have a new TV deal (as will the P12/10).

If KU and OSU decided they don’t want to resign the GOR you guys gonna kick them out?

 

 

 

 

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On 8/10/2022 at 7:38 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

But have BYU and Houston (UCF and Cincinnati are irrelevant to this discussion) actually joined the Big 12 already?

As an example, SDSU and Boise verbally committed to the Big East more than a year before they would have began playing in that conference and both rescinded that verbal commitment six months or so before it became effective.

Accordingly, it's my assumption that BYU and/or Houston could do the same within the next year-plus and join the Pac without penalty. (Not that any B12 honks here would acknowledge that.)

BYU will find some way to stab it’s presumed conference members in the back, rest assured.  

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On 8/10/2022 at 8:38 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

But have BYU and Houston (UCF and Cincinnati are irrelevant to this discussion) actually joined the Big 12 already?

As an example, SDSU and Boise verbally committed to the Big East more than a year before they would have began playing in that conference and both rescinded that verbal commitment six months or so before it became effective.

Accordingly, it's my assumption that BYU and/or Houston could do the same within the next year-plus and join the Pac without penalty. (Not that any B12 honks here would acknowledge that.)

Typically, once a team has accepted membership, even if they have not yet officially joined, they are still subject to the buyout -- as TCU did before they had officially joined the Big East, Boise State paid the AAC a buyout, as well. At a minimum, I would expect the Big 12 to claim BYU (and the other 3) would owe an exit fee and either the schools pay it or take it to court.

Beyond that, as doubtful as I think it is that the PAC would invite BYU, I strongly suspect that BYU would turn the invite down. While BYU fits the PAC better geographically, beyond the "bad blood," I think BYU feels they fit culturally better in the Big 12.

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On 8/10/2022 at 10:17 PM, AztecSU said:

If KU and OSU decided they don’t want to resign the GOR you guys gonna kick them out?

My recollection is that they don't get their home games televised or share in the conference TV money if they don't sign the GoR. And, since most of their home games are signed over to the conference, they can't contract separately to televise their games.

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Fresno is an absolute shithole and all of America knows it.  Scottsdale and Paradise Valley are heaven for about 7 months a year, pretty hot for two months a year and north of 110 pretty regularly for 3 months (mid June-mid-September).  You just have to be able afford to vacation in the summer a few times and it’s a pretty awesome place to live.  Maricopa County (Phoenix metro) has been the fastest growing county the last three full calendar years (pre and post pandemic) so we must be doing something right.  More golf courses than anywhere but Florida, 5 star dining, 5 star resorts/hotels, lots of celebrity’s with houses and visiting regularly, phenomenal bar scene, Spring Training Mecca, Waste Management open, Big 3 pro sports, world class shopping, excellent demographics and more big businesses arriving every day.  It’s not for everyone as Northern and Southern Californias natural geography are definitely more beautiful and better year long weather but the nice areas are a phenomenal place to live.  

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