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USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

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On 7/31/2022 at 5:38 PM, e-zone99 said:

I would bet the USC and UCLA currently charters their flights already, I know BYU does (has for years).

 

UCLA only chartered for a couple of games, depending on location. (WSU, maybe the Oregon schools). They flew commercial for a majority of games. This will change for the Big-10. They will charter for almost all road games.

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On 7/31/2022 at 5:33 PM, MrBug708 said:

Propaganda. We'll probably keep hearing it until Newsom backs off from it. And I think UCLA is making the right move by remaining silent publicly as to not stoke the flames here. Funny how at a Pac-12 event — not a UC Regents event — all they want to whine about is UCLA (and not SC, who also bolted and arguably is causing a bigger dent). Someone’s trying to push an agenda. The only leverage out there is the UC regents and CA legislature both of whom have no legal means of stopping the move. This is strictly athletics and has nothing to do with student enrollment, tuition or academic programs which the legislature usually weighs in on. The smart move for UCLA is to keep it’s head down and try to avoid ruffling feathers as we go out the door. The school is going to take a hit from assorted naysayers but there isn’t a legal way to derail our move.

Of course the state has leverage over a state institution. That's just silly. As to what's legal, that definition can change with the stroke of a pen. 

The state, if it chooses can present a set of incentives of the negative and positive variety to help influence the decision.   It's simply a matter of will. California has deeper pockets than Fox.

This is why everyone focuses on the Bruins instead of Troy.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

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On 7/31/2022 at 6:33 PM, MrBug708 said:

Propaganda. We'll probably keep hearing it until Newsom backs off from it. And I think UCLA is making the right move by remaining silent publicly as to not stoke the flames here. Funny how at a Pac-12 event — not a UC Regents event — all they want to whine about is UCLA (and not SC, who also bolted and arguably is causing a bigger dent). Someone’s trying to push an agenda. The only leverage out there is the UC regents and CA legislature both of whom have no legal means of stopping the move. This is strictly athletics and has nothing to do with student enrollment, tuition or academic programs which the legislature usually weighs in on. The smart move for UCLA is to keep it’s head down and try to avoid ruffling feathers as we go out the door. The school is going to take a hit from assorted naysayers but there isn’t a legal way to derail our move.

How many times has West Virginia been turned down by the ACC?  I can't remember 3 or 4...  If the ACC gets raided by both the SEC and Big10, would West Virginia really want to be in a depleted ACC?  I would think it would be much better for them the remain in the Big12 and raid the leftover ACC school (say Pitt and VaTech, WV rivals).  Kansas is way down the Big10's list and most Kansas fans understand that now.   I have not any rumblings that either school would not sign a GOR.

 

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On 7/31/2022 at 6:44 PM, MrBug708 said:

UCLA only chartered for a couple of games, depending on location. (WSU, maybe the Oregon schools). They flew commercial for a majority of games. This will change for the Big-10. They will charter for almost all road games.

$100 million will open up a lot of options, I forgot that UCLA athletic budget problems (you would think they will go away pretty quickly).

 

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On 7/31/2022 at 5:58 PM, e-zone99 said:

$100 million will open up a lot of options, I forgot that UCLA athletic budget problems (you would think they will go away pretty quickly).

 

They got a cool 67 million from Under Armour.  I suspect a lot of donors, who are used to subsidizing some aspects of the athletic department, are free to donate towards other endeavors. And athletics owes UCLA, which is strange. And athletics doesn't own Pauley, they rent it from another department from UCLA. But I suspect the debt will be gone by 2025. If UCLA forgives the athletic debts to itself, it starts using state funds and has a lot more oversight from a lot more departments and I don't think they really want that.

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On 7/31/2022 at 7:02 PM, MrBug708 said:

They got a cool 67 million from Under Armour.  I suspect a lot of donors, who are used to subsidizing some aspects of the athletic department, are free to donate towards other endeavors. And athletics owes UCLA, which is strange. And athletics doesn't own Pauley, they rent it from another department from UCLA. But I suspect the debt will be gone by 2025. If UCLA forgives the athletic debts to itself, it starts using state funds and has a lot more oversight from a lot more departments and I don't think they really want that.

That is a nice bit of coin and came at a really nice time.

 

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On 7/31/2022 at 5:10 PM, e-zone99 said:

Big10 & SEC then Big12 all 3 conferences have schools in the EST and CST zones. But the Big12 only has 1 school in the EST zone in West Virginia, needless say they trail the other 2 conference by quit a bit.  Then the Pac12 comes in at 4th place with the MST and PST zones (mainly PST zones).  Followed by the ACC placing 5th with all of their schools on the East Coast in the EST zone.

 

The NEW B12 has 3-teams in the Eastern Time Zone:  Cincy, UCF & WestVA

"EST" = Eastern Standard Time, not Eastern Time Zone.  "EST" only exists 6-months/yr.

 

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On 7/31/2022 at 6:33 PM, MrBug708 said:

Propaganda. We'll probably keep hearing it until Newsom backs off from it. And I think UCLA is making the right move by remaining silent publicly as to not stoke the flames here. Funny how at a Pac-12 event — not a UC Regents event — all they want to whine about is UCLA (and not SC, who also bolted and arguably is causing a bigger dent). Someone’s trying to push an agenda. The only leverage out there is the UC regents and CA legislature both of whom have no legal means of stopping the move. This is strictly athletics and has nothing to do with student enrollment, tuition or academic programs which the legislature usually weighs in on. The smart move for UCLA is to keep it’s head down and try to avoid ruffling feathers as we go out the door. The school is going to take a hit from assorted naysayers but there isn’t a legal way to derail our move.

I was wondering why all the hullabaloo about UCLA and not USC, myself, but UCLA, is a public University, and subject to the UC system (UC regents).

USC, is a private research institution, so not subject to the same UC Regents?

"Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson, make the same mistake twice and it becomes a choice."
 

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Correct. Neither are about to get pulled back into the PaC_12 but George is probably going to get as many shots in at UCLA to make it as difficult and uncomfortable as possible while leaving. There is no recourse for USC so he's not going to waste the effort.

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On 7/31/2022 at 5:45 PM, SDSUfan said:

Of course the state has leverage over a state institution. That's just silly. As to what's legal, that definition can change with the stroke of a pen. 

The state, if it chooses can present a set of incentives of the negative and positive variety to help influence the decision.   It's simply a matter of will. California has deeper pockets than Fox.

This is why everyone focuses on the Bruins instead of Troy.

I have to agree that the 2023 legislative budget cycle could change the minds of UCLA if the legislature decides to appropriate  money to pay off the athletic department's one time debts.  However, that would likely cause Stanford to join USC in the Big Ten rather than cause USC to not go to the Big Ten too.

My impression of the UCLA alumni reaction is 'wait and see'.  Obviously Athletic's budget deficit needs to be addressed and the university shouldn't subsidize athletics with other funds.   UCLA football ought to be able to recruit at a high level in the Big Ten but USC is likely to benefit more than we will because they are the 'football school'.  The big downside is road games in the midwest or the northeast where fewer UCLA alumni live. 

The elephant in the room that no one is addressing is this is happening because Wazzou, Oregon State and Arizona State aren't comparable academic institutions to the AAU schools in the Pac 12 and none of the three add significant value to the conference's media rights.

My presumption is that 1) after expansion of the College Football Playoff and 2) slightly before the time when the ACC grant of rights expire, USC and UCLA (maybe Stanford) announce a decision to form a 'PAC 9' consisting of the nine AAU schools in the Pac 12 now.  Ultimately, dividing media rights nine ways should be comparable to a 1/16th share of the Big Ten or SEC. 

Joining the Big Ten for a decade might seem like a convoluted way to address the issues created by being in the same conference as WSU, OSU and ASU but it actually is the easiest of the available options.  No college administrator wants to publicly state negative things about another university so this is the best option.

In a perfect world, we could work out a trade of, say, WSU and OSU to the Mountain West for SDSU and one of either Hawaii/UNLV/Nevada to the Pac 12 but that would require the willing participation of WSU and OSU. Unfortunately, those universities are never going to voluntarily give up a 1/12 share of the media rights of the Pac 12 for a 1/12 share of the MW rights, even if the addition of the states of Washington and Oregon adds to more value of the Mountain West media rights.

 

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On 8/1/2022 at 5:53 AM, LoboMan59 said:

I was wondering why all the hullabaloo about UCLA and not USC, myself, but UCLA, is a public University, and subject to the UC system (UC regents).

USC, is a private research institution, so not subject to the same UC Regents?

 

They are both "research institution(s)," That fact is pretty much immaterial in the context of your comparison.  

 

USC is pvt & answers ultimately to their Board of Trustees:

https://boardoftrustees.usc.edu/trustees/

 

UCLA is public & answers to the Univ of Calif Board of Regents which has 26 voting members.  Two are from the Executive Branch of the State government (Governor & Lt Governor) & one is from the Legislative Branch (Speaker of the Assembly):

64D4F442-922A-47E5-833E-06EB0511C783.jpeg

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On 8/1/2022 at 8:43 AM, Bruininthebay said:

In a perfect world, we could work out a trade of, say, WSU and OSU to the Mountain West for SDSU and one of either Hawaii/UNLV/Nevada I---> Are you high?  to the Pac 12 but that would require the willing participation of WSU and OSU. 

 

What color is the sky in the world where Hawai'i, Nevada Southern & Nevada are are more desirable than:

CSU

The Juco

CSU-Fresno

The USAFA

 

 

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On 8/1/2022 at 9:43 AM, Bruininthebay said:

I have to agree that the 2023 legislative budget cycle could change the minds of UCLA if the legislature decides to appropriate  money to pay off the athletic department's one time debts.  However, that would likely cause Stanford to join USC in the Big Ten rather than cause USC to not go to the Big Ten too.

My impression of the UCLA alumni reaction is 'wait and see'.  Obviously Athletic's budget deficit needs to be addressed and the university shouldn't subsidize athletics with other funds.   UCLA football ought to be able to recruit at a high level in the Big Ten but USC is likely to benefit more than we will because they are the 'football school'.  The big downside is road games in the midwest or the northeast where fewer UCLA alumni live. 

The elephant in the room that no one is addressing is this is happening because Wazzou, Oregon State and Arizona State aren't comparable academic institutions to the AAU schools in the Pac 12 and none of the three add significant value to the conference's media rights.

My presumption is that 1) after expansion of the College Football Playoff and 2) slightly before the time when the ACC grant of rights expire, USC and UCLA (maybe Stanford) announce a decision to form a 'PAC 9' consisting of the nine AAU schools in the Pac 12 now.  Ultimately, dividing media rights nine ways should be comparable to a 1/16th share of the Big Ten or SEC. 

Joining the Big Ten for a decade might seem like a convoluted way to address the issues created by being in the same conference as WSU, OSU and ASU but it actually is the easiest of the available options.  No college administrator wants to publicly state negative things about another university so this is the best option.

In a perfect world, we could work out a trade of, say, WSU and OSU to the Mountain West for SDSU and one of either Hawaii/UNLV/Nevada to the Pac 12 but that would require the willing participation of WSU and OSU. Unfortunately, those universities are never going to voluntarily give up a 1/12 share of the media rights of the Pac 12 for a 1/12 share of the MW rights, even if the addition of the states of Washington and Oregon adds to more value of the Mountain West media rights.

 

I'm not sure if a 9 member PAC conference would equal 1/16 of the B1G since the B1G would have coast to coast inventory and marquee matchups.  

I don't see conferences going smaller until the TV money starts to dwindle and that doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon.  

The move is to a smaller group of D1 football schools but that's about it.

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On 8/1/2022 at 9:11 AM, Wyobraska said:

I'm not sure if a 9 member PAC conference would equal 1/16 of the B1G since the B1G would have coast to coast inventory and marquee matchups.  

The Big Ten wouldn't have coast to coast inventory if USC and UCLA join Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah and Colorado is a new Pac 9.  Sorry if my long post about this was confusing.

Yes, I'm anticipating 1/9 of the media value of that conference to be based on USC, Stanford and UCLA all being a part of the new conference with the Big Ten no longer having any west coast/pacific or mountain time zone schools.

The important change is what happens with the college football playoff.  If the current four team playoff continues then I would guess the current 'power 2' structure would continue but if the CFP is a twelve or sixteen team playoff then the necessity of being in a top conference is less important.

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On 8/1/2022 at 10:20 AM, Bruininthebay said:

The Big Ten wouldn't have coast to coast inventory if USC and UCLA join Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah and Colorado is a new Pac 9.  Sorry if my long post about this was confusing.

Yes, I'm anticipating 1/9 of the media value of that conference to be based on USC, Stanford and UCLA all being a part of the new conference with the Big Ten no longer having any west coast/pacific or mountain time zone schools.

The important change is what happens with the college football playoff.  If the current four team playoff continues then I would guess the current 'power 2' structure would continue but if the CFP is a twelve or sixteen team playoff then the necessity of being in a top conference is less important.

Right but they would also have that option of staying in the B1G and having a 4 time zone conference.

Even with an expanded playoff, being in the P2 will be huge.  If they expand the playoff, they aren't going to open it up to every conference champs gets in.  SEC commissioner recently came out and said he was on board with each P5 conference getting an autobid with the last round of negotiations but now that is over.  It doesn't make sense to him anymore.  I'm sure the B1G would vote that way too.  The SEC and B1G will try to swallow up as many resources as possible and leave crumbs for everyone else.  

If anything, the P2 starts to drop the less desirable schools and goes to a more NFL style system would be my guess.  USC and UCLA moved to make sure they were included in that.  

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On 8/1/2022 at 9:20 AM, Bruininthebay said:

The Big Ten wouldn't have coast to coast inventory if USC and UCLA join Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah and Colorado is a new Pac 9.  Sorry if my long post about this was confusing.

Yes, I'm anticipating 1/9 of the media value of that conference to be based on USC, Stanford and UCLA all being a part of the new conference with the Big Ten no longer having any west coast/pacific or mountain time zone schools.

The important change is what happens with the college football playoff.  If the current four team playoff continues then I would guess the current 'power 2' structure would continue but if the CFP is a twelve or sixteen team playoff then the necessity of being in a top conference is less important.

There was a time when playoff expansion would have protected smaller regional conferences but that time has long since passed.  At best a 3rd so called power conference could be created and preserved but the days of P5 or even P4 are gone.  The P2 will hoover up the best talent thanks to big NIL deals.  There are enough good schools and enough top talent to cobble together a third Power conference but it will be a distant third in revenue and true playoff contenders.

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Ultimately, someone like ESPN could just form a new NFL style league separate from conference affiliation. 64 teams, split into regionally appropriate divisions with a 16 team playoff. All schools get paid a baseline amount, with schools getting additional monies for each playoff game they appear in. Traditional conferences could handle all other sports, and would naturally revert to geographically logical members. If they could make this so favorable to the top 8-10 programs due to the playoff bonuses, the rest would likely be forced to fall in line.

I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and money
The shit has hit the fan

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On 8/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, NorthWestCowboy said:

There was a time when playoff expansion would have protected smaller regional conferences but that time has long since passed.  At best a 3rd so called power conference could be created and preserved but the days of P5 or even P4 are gone.  The P2 will hoover up the best talent thanks to big NIL deals.  There are enough good schools and enough top talent to cobble together a third Power conference but it will be a distant third in revenue and true playoff contenders.

The Alliance was stupid when they were opposed to the 12 team playoff.  If a 12 team playoff gets passed, does UCLA and USC still move?  Maybe, the money is hard to pass up, but having guaranteed access to a playoff would have maybe kicked the can down the road longer.

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On 8/1/2022 at 11:02 AM, Mano said:

Ultimately, someone like ESPN could just form a new NFL style league separate from conference affiliation. 64 teams, split into regionally appropriate divisions with a 16 team playoff. All schools get paid a baseline amount, with schools getting additional monies for each playoff game they appear in. Traditional conferences could handle all other sports, and would naturally revert to geographically logical members. If they could make this so favorable to the top 8-10 programs due to the playoff bonuses, the rest would likely be forced to fall in line.

This, although you don't really need the divisions. Play who you want to play in the 64, and rankings will decide who gets in the playoff. They should do this for the big boys and then a lower level for G5.

The only way this doesn't make sense is if they open up the playoff to give G5 more access. 

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