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Cleopatra

USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

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10 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

Haven't in SD but not close to the situation. All that matters is what Block is hearing from the big donors. Having a hard time thinking the deep pocket Blue hairs are relishing a trip to Madison, where they have no friends, history or connection, in mid November. Same with East Lansing and all of the other garden spots inhabited by the B1G.

I just don't see it. 

Initially I said the same... I just don't see UCLA to the B10... so it was a big surprise to me.

I also have a few fairly big alumni connections and was expecting them to be pissed but that's not what I am seeing.  Of course, that's just anecdotal evidence so who knows.

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On 7/30/2022 at 7:08 PM, Aztec1984 said:

 

Perhaps, but the PAC needs SoCal. Also, Cal is in deep athletic debt and has no lifeboat with the BIG.

Everyone who understands recruiting hotbeds and Big Metro eyeballs can clearly see which Schools to add.

They either fear losing those recruits to an elevated SDSU and/or they are so elitist, they can't see past their noses.

 

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"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

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On 7/31/2022 at 12:31 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

I think UCLA is gone but maybe only temporarily.

If THE reason for UCLA to go to the B1G is to quickly reverse its $120 million athletics deficit, and that's the only reason anybody who's anybody has given, particularly if it looks like the academic performance of "student-athletes" has declined, that school will seriously consider returning to the Pac, provided, of course, that there is a Pac to return to since no way, no how would UCLA's leadership condone a move to the politically conservative, rural-centric Big12.

I actually think that is possible as well. UCLA will not fare well in the BIG. They haven't been all that strong in football and they finally hired a good coach in BB only to give him the travel schedule from hell in a conference that plays a game more like the MWC than the PAC. I wouldn't be surprised if Cronin isn't already updating his resume.

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On 7/30/2022 at 11:09 PM, wolfpack1 said:

.  But also a question I have, is that right now, besides USC, UCLA and Oregon does anyone outside of the west care about the other Pac-12 schools?

Nope.

Never have. Never Will.

 

The vast majority of PAC grads and fans live in the Western U.S.

Hence, my comment about Utah getting into a shitty pod. I think they and their fans would rather be in a pod with the Cali schools.

Utah, like West Virginia, will take the bid, yet be somewhat unhappy with their opponents.

 

TV Money has ruined the Rivalries and Refional feel of the Conference 

 

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

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On 7/31/2022 at 1:50 PM, Aztec1984 said:

I actually think that is possible as well. UCLA will not fare well in the BIG. They haven't been all that strong in football and they finally hired a good coach in BB only to give him the travel schedule from hell in a conference that plays a game more like the MWC than the PAC. I wouldn't be surprised if Cronin isn't already updating his resume.

Fair point but he also might consider it a challenge too. Some good hoop in the B10. A little easier traveling 20 kids around the country compared to a football with with a truckload of equipment. Cronin is chasing money and national titles I think. 

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On 7/31/2022 at 11:24 AM, Someone Else said:

I live in Socal and was expecting a major backlash from UCLA alums about the move from the P12 to the B10 but honestly I haven't seen much push back from the alums.... 

Anyone else who lives in Socal seeing a different reaction?  

I didn't say it was realistic, just ideal. 😀

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On 7/31/2022 at 1:01 PM, utenation said:

Fair point but he also might consider it a challenge too. Some good hoop in the B10. A little easier traveling 20 kids around the country compared to a football with with a truckload of equipment. Cronin is chasing money and national titles I think. 

Different game and travel wil be a bitch. Much harder to go east than west. It isn't the expense of the travel as it is dealing with the time change and travel itself. Then they will be playing a much different game in the BIG than the PAC has been playing. Very similar to the MWC with large bodies up front.

Gonzaga has their own charter for MBB and yet, despite being a perfect match, they are not in the Big East.

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On 7/31/2022 at 1:01 PM, utenation said:

Fair point but he also might consider it a challenge too. Some good hoop in the B10. A little easier traveling 20 kids around the country compared to a football with with a truckload of equipment. Cronin is chasing money and national titles I think. 

For that reason and because Cronin was born in and attended HS and college in Ohio, I doubt he's displeased at all with this move. The UCLA coaches most likely to object are those whose teams are non-revenue producing.

Conclusion: The days of UCLA being a great Olympic sports university are probably about to end.

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On 7/30/2022 at 10:09 PM, wolfpack1 said:

CBS wants football after SEC leaves so they will probably overpay to get Pac-12 or such rights but they possibly have some Tier rights with B10 as well so Pac-12 could be counting on that as well. But also we are assuming these deals are going to go on a certain path but with how everything is today they very possibly could be different type of deals than we have seen in the past.

 

Also anyone expecting anything concrete to be done at the media days, I think were going to be disappointed. It is smart or maybe prudent to get what ESPN and/or Fox wants to offer than go to the market to talk to other partners then come back and see what they have.  But also a question I have, is that right now, besides USC, UCLA and Oregon does anyone outside of the west care about the other Pac-12 schools?

 

Nope.  But UCSB thanks Oregon for Andrew Checketts, and Arizona for Joe Pasternack.  

 

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Anyone who thinks UCLA is only joining the Big 10 for the money is missing the point.  The P5 that dominated college football and national media attention is going away.  In its place there will be a P2 that dominates college football and national media attention, and UCLA wants to be part of that P2.  They won't settle for less.

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On 7/31/2022 at 1:37 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

For that reason and because Cronin was born in and attended HS and college in Ohio, I doubt he's displeased at all with this move. The UCLA coaches most likely to object are those whose teams are non-revenue producing.

Conclusion: The days of UCLA being a great Olympic sports university are probably about to end.

It doesn't matter where Cronin is from, he will have big issues with travel. Also, the BIG plays a different game so he will have to recruit for that, big bodies up front. The move to the BIG by UCLA has nothing to do with UCLA BB. It has to do with UCLA football which will fail as well.

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On 7/31/2022 at 10:24 AM, shizzle787 said:

It has been a month since the big move but no further moves have been made yet. Here is my theory for the next moves given the latest rumors and speculation: 

The B1G is going to stay at 16. They will likely sign their new TV deal next month. This means that Notre Dame has decided not to come and likely have a huge raise in hand from NBC. 

As a result of the B1G staying pat, the SEC and ACC do likewise. 

The next battle royale will be between the Big 12 and Pac-12, but it will be a cold war: neither side will be able to poach from the other due to similar TV numbers. 

The Big 12 stands pat. 

The Pac-12, however, would like to expand if the numbers make sense. The numbers make sense if the two (or three) incoming schools combine to equal one share for the first TV contract (lasting six or so years). I think the TV contract will ultimately be will three companies: ESPN, NBC, and Apple+. The Pac-12 gets a contract of about 330 million per year (30 million per school). They expand by adding SDSU (half-share: 15 million), Hawaii football-only (third-share: 10 million) and Gonzaga (sixth-share: 5 million). 

The Mountain West at this point is down to ten schools but decides to stand pat as no one (UTEP/NMSU/FCS schools) moves the needle, and they won't be able to raid any AAC schools. 

Realignment at the FBS level is complete for the time being. 

However, the WCC needs to respond to the loss of Gonzaga and BYU. 
They respond by adding Seattle and Grand Canyon to get back to 10. 

The WAC at this point is down to 9 schools (6 in football). They cannot find a suitable Division 1 addition and decide to stand pat. 

Though unrelated to the previous moves, I believe there will be a few more in the Northeast. The MEAC will add New Haven (D2) to provide cover for Howard to move to the CAA. 

The final move will be LeMoyne to the NEC to bring that league back to 10.

Hawaii? You're high.

I am Halfmanhalfbronco's bitch.

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On 7/31/2022 at 2:32 PM, Reverend said:

Hawaii? You're high.

To me, SDSU with a Hawaii/ Gonzaga pairing is intriguing. Could make the same case for Air Force (FB only) with Gonzaga as well.

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On 7/31/2022 at 2:28 PM, Aztec1984 said:

Different game and travel wil be a bitch. Much harder to go east than west. It isn't the expense of the travel as it is dealing with the time change and travel itself. Then they will be playing a much different game in the BIG than the PAC has been playing. Very similar to the MWC with large bodies up front.

Gonzaga has their own charter for MBB and yet, despite being a perfect match, they are not in the Big East.

UCLA basically recruits whoever they want. Adapting and changing to a different style of conference play isn’t going to be a show stopper.  

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On 7/31/2022 at 8:39 AM, The Brent Vigen Diet said:

This doesn’t get mentioned enough but I think the main reason allot of people are skeptical of the Big 12 getting a massive raise in their media deal hinges on the fact that they lost OUT and gained BYU, UCF , Cinci, and Houston. Those four teams, as successful as they have been in the last 10 years, are a fraction of the value UT and OU command. One other thing to point out, there are very few states on the Big 12 map where the Big 12 school is the biggest draw for college football. Kansas and West Virginia I guess with BYU capturing a slight majority in Utah. Somebody please explain to me how they are going to get 40 or 50 million per school a year? 

This is a very good question and I wonder myself about it...  A couple things I think could be a factors:

Stability-  The Big12 has nice schools, but no huge names that the Big2 really want currently.   So I don't see any reason why all the members won't sign a GOR, unlike the Pac with Oregon and likely Washington wanting no part in signing a GOR (they think there is a change of a Big2 invite).

TV Windows-  The Big12 will stretch almost from coast to coast (UCF to BYU) so the TV partners can have games broadcast in every TV window (BYU has often broadcasts in that Pac after dark window).  If you look at the ACC all of their schools are in the EST zone and Pac is mainly the PST zone with a few in the MST zone...  Both conferences have limited windows for broadcasting windows.  When you look at the SEC and Big10, have schools in both the EST and CST zones thus have more available broadcast windows.   The Big10 just added 2 schools from the PST zone and it now looks like they could now have a larger TV contract than the SEC.

I appears the broadcast windows are a large factor in the size of conferences TV contracts.  Currently TV contract payout per conference/school pay out of the P5 is:

Big10 & SEC then Big12 all 3 conferences have schools in the EST and CST zones. But the Big12 only has 1 school in the EST zone in West Virginia, needless say they trail the other 2 conference by quit a bit.  Then the Pac12 comes in at 4th place with the MST and PST zones (mainly PST zones).  Followed by the ACC placing 5th with all of their schools on the East Coast in the EST zone.

So the Big12 lost their 2 huge named schools, but gained 2 more EST zone schools move their number to now 3 EST zone schools and also now added a MST zone school in BYU.

IMO TV partners value having a large variety of broadcasting windows a lot and if Big12 could add a few more schools from the MST or PST zones to go with BYU the TV partners would like it even more.

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On 7/31/2022 at 12:50 PM, Aztec1984 said:

I actually think that is possible as well. UCLA will not fare well in the BIG. They haven't been all that strong in football and they finally hired a good coach in BB only to give him the travel schedule from hell in a conference that plays a game more like the MWC than the PAC. I wouldn't be surprised if Cronin isn't already updating his resume.

You can tell when someone doesn't watch basketball when they have no idea who Mick Cronin is or what style of basketball he plays.

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On 7/29/2022 at 3:32 PM, utenation said:

@MrBug708, I'm sure you saw the same thing I did. Reporter asked George if there is a chance that USC and UCLA come back.  He said he wasn't sure but UCLA is likely in for some serious legal battles(has been discussed already on what). His tone suggested that UCLA's move might not be a done deal.

But this is the first time PAC admin have addressed it publicly to my knowledge.

Thoughts or updates?

Propaganda. We'll probably keep hearing it until Newsom backs off from it. And I think UCLA is making the right move by remaining silent publicly as to not stoke the flames here. Funny how at a Pac-12 event — not a UC Regents event — all they want to whine about is UCLA (and not SC, who also bolted and arguably is causing a bigger dent). Someone’s trying to push an agenda. The only leverage out there is the UC regents and CA legislature both of whom have no legal means of stopping the move. This is strictly athletics and has nothing to do with student enrollment, tuition or academic programs which the legislature usually weighs in on. The smart move for UCLA is to keep it’s head down and try to avoid ruffling feathers as we go out the door. The school is going to take a hit from assorted naysayers but there isn’t a legal way to derail our move.

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On 7/31/2022 at 8:10 PM, e-zone99 said:

This is a very good question and I wonder myself about it...  A couple things I think could be a factors:

Stability-  The Big12 has nice schools, but no huge names that the Big2 really want currently.   So I don't see any reason why all the members won't sign a GOR, unlike the Pac with Oregon and likely Washington wanting no part in signing a GOR (they think there is a change of a Big2 invite).

TV Windows-  The Big12 will stretch almost from coast to coast (UCF to BYU) so the TV partners can have games broadcast in every TV window (BYU has often broadcasts in that Pac after dark window).  If you look at the ACC all of their schools are in the EST zone and Pac is mainly the PST zone with a few in the MST zone...  Both conferences have limited windows for broadcasting windows.  When you look at the SEC and Big10, have schools in both the EST and CST zones thus have more available broadcast windows.   The Big10 just added 2 schools from the PST zone and it now looks like they could now have a larger TV contract than the SEC.

I appears the broadcast windows are a large factor in the size of conferences TV contracts.  Currently TV contract payout per conference/school pay out of the P5 is:

Big10 & SEC then Big12 all 3 conferences have schools in the EST and CST zones. But the Big12 only has 1 school in the EST zone in West Virginia, needless say they trail the other 2 conference by quit a bit.  Then the Pac12 comes in at 4th place with the MST and PST zones (mainly PST zones).  Followed by the ACC placing 5th with all of their schools on the East Coast in the EST zone.

So the Big12 lost their 2 huge named schools, but gained 2 more EST zone schools move their number to now 3 EST zone schools and also now added a MST zone school in BYU.

IMO TV partners value having a large variety of broadcasting windows a lot and if Big12 could add a few more schools from the MST or PST zones to go with BYU the TV partners would like it even more.

Kansas and WVU are not going to want to sign a GOR. If the B1G does expand to 24 at some point, Kansas might be a candidate. Also, WVU wants to go to the ACC. 
 

A GOR would protect schools like Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor who don’t have better homes to look forward to in the future. 

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On 7/31/2022 at 2:28 PM, Aztec1984 said:

Different game and travel wil be a bitch. Much harder to go east than west. It isn't the expense of the travel as it is dealing with the time change and travel itself. Then they will be playing a much different game in the BIG than the PAC has been playing. Very similar to the MWC with large bodies up front.

Gonzaga has their own charter for MBB and yet, despite being a perfect match, they are not in the Big East.

I would bet the USC and UCLA currently charters their flights already, I know BYU does (has for years).

 

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