USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12

[utenation]

On 7/30/2022 at 10:24 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Moles are how this all gets out,. 

As long as they follow protocol.

@Headbuttmight have to verify if proper procedure was followed. 

[wolfpack1]

On 7/30/2022 at 1:07 PM, Coog kev said:

Allegedly on Monday, August 1, Arizona and Colorado alleged applications to B12 will be accepted re basic horse poops rumor mill. 

No way at all.  The PAC media rights negotiations have not gone to the free market as of yet.  The exclusive window with ESPN and Fox expires mid week, next week.  Not on Monday.  Fox will likely no longer be interested in PAC and ESPN gave PAC a highly predictable low ball amount of $25m/squad until ESPN really has to compete with the true open market, linear and digital. 

Who knows what's gonna happen until B1G winds up its looming biggie media rights deal along about Labor Day. 

Mid-August is what I read on the dirt sheets the new TV deal will be done and announced.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 7/31/2022 at 1:02 AM, wolfpack1 said:

Mid-August is what I read on the dirt sheets the new TV deal will be done and announced.

Big 10?

[Wyobraska]

On 7/30/2022 at 9:39 PM, utgrizfan said:

Playing Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska every year wouldn't be a bad Pod at all?   Granted I don't think this is gonna happen in any way shape or form I just saw people talking about it.

For two schools from CA?  I'd call that a pretty shitty pod for them. 

[wolfpack1]

On 7/30/2022 at 10:03 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Big 10?

Yup

[wolfpack1]

CBS wants football after SEC leaves so they will probably overpay to get Pac-12 or such rights but they possibly have some Tier rights with B10 as well so Pac-12 could be counting on that as well. But also we are assuming these deals are going to go on a certain path but with how everything is today they very possibly could be different type of deals than we have seen in the past.

 

Also anyone expecting anything concrete to be done at the media days, I think were going to be disappointed. It is smart or maybe prudent to get what ESPN and/or Fox wants to offer than go to the market to talk to other partners then come back and see what they have.  But also a question I have, is that right now, besides USC, UCLA and Oregon does anyone outside of the west care about the other Pac-12 schools?

[Fowl]

On 7/30/2022 at 6:05 PM, Aztec1984 said:

You seem to hate on SDSU much.

I’m a realist.  And a close relative of mine is an AD for a P5 school and he has been in the mix on realignment recently.  So I have somewhat of an informed view.

Presidents are the ones who pull the trigger on realignment. Think like a president.

[utenation]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:09 PM, wolfpack1 said:.

 

Also anyone expecting anything concrete to be done at the media days, I think were going to be disappointed. It is smart or maybe prudent to get what ESPN and/or Fox wants to offer than go to the market to talk to other partners then come back and see what they have.  But also a question I have, is that right now, besides USC, UCLA and Oregon does anyone outside of the west care about the other Pac-12 schools?

I don’t think anyone has said things are a done deal based on media days. I’ve said our leadership feels confident with our options which also likely includes other platforms besides Fox and ESPN. 
 

Our commish said boldly this will take months to finalize. So not sure how anyone would feel things are done and ready to go. 

[sactowndog]

On 7/30/2022 at 5:54 PM, utenation said:

This is the way I see it. I watched a boat load of interviews with P12 leadership yesterday including my own AD. Every one of them said the numbers look good to stay together at 10 and left the door open for expansion. These are the folks with the real numbers in front of their face that drive their jobs and future.  They aren’t looking for more clicks, followers and more radio listeners like the media hacks. 

So A. All our leaders are lying to our fan bases. People that invest millions into our programs. 
 

Or B. These media hacks don’t know shit nor do they have the real numbers in front of their face.

Or 

C) they are trying to shape the narrative in the hope of keeping the conference together.  Lying can be an overly strong word but it can still be problematic for the PAC going forward. 

[sactowndog]

On 7/30/2022 at 10:09 PM, wolfpack1 said:

CBS wants football after SEC leaves so they will probably overpay to get Pac-12 or such rights but they possibly have some Tier rights with B10 as well so Pac-12 could be counting on that as well. But also we are assuming these deals are going to go on a certain path but with how everything is today they very possibly could be different type of deals than we have seen in the past.

 

Also anyone expecting anything concrete to be done at the media days, I think were going to be disappointed. It is smart or maybe prudent to get what ESPN and/or Fox wants to offer than go to the market to talk to other partners then come back and see what they have.  But also a question I have, is that right now, besides USC, UCLA and Oregon does anyone outside of the west care about the other Pac-12 schools?

The athlon guys think CBS will pay for a 3rd conference that is the Big-12 and 6-8 PAC Schools.  

[sactowndog]

On 7/30/2022 at 12:26 PM, Fowl said:

Utah also had/has a medical school and was doing over $300mm in research annually (now over 2x that). That’s the lens by which the presidents view schools. IMO that’s why the USC president put the kibosh on adding TCU last summer. Most of the Pac presidents have a similar mindset so it wasn’t hard to sway them.

You are correct.  That also has nothing to do with the television appeal of their conference.   The PAC is a case study of decision makers focusing on the wrong thing, not understanding the core business of the athletic conference and destroying it.   

[utenation]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:34 PM, sactowndog said:

Or 

C) they are trying to shape the narrative in the hope of keeping the conference together.  Lying can be an overly strong word but it can still be problematic for the PAC going forward. 

I like your open logic but I think C is far too risky. This clearly is a business and after USC/UCLA left loyalty went out the window. 

I’m 100% confident Mark Harlan would not string our donors and fan base along to save face for the PAC. 

I’m also not going to predict a massive contract. I think @Spaztecsis likely correct in saying being united  might simply be the best option for our schools until the 2 monster conferences come knocking. 

[utenation]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:20 PM, Fowl said:

I’m a realist.  And a close relative of mine is an AD for a P5 school and he has been in the mix on realignment recently.  So I have somewhat of an informed view.

Presidents are the ones who pull the trigger on realignment. Think like a president.

Impressive. I’d love pick your brain sometime. I’m a SDSU believer. When we were at 12, I was only open to other P5 schools being stolen to add to the conference. Now, I’m hoping for us to be more proactive. 
 

SDSU may not check all the boxes but I think some of our “standards” are outdated given the current landscape of survival. 

[sactowndog]

On 7/30/2022 at 10:52 PM, utenation said:

I like your open logic but I think C is far too risky. This clearly is a business and after USC/UCLA left loyalty went out the window. 

I’m 100% confident Mark Harlan would not string our donors and fan base along to save face for the PAC. 

I’m also not going to predict a massive contract. I think @Spaztecsis likely correct in saying being united  might simply be the best option for our schools until the 2 monster conferences come knocking. 

Perhaps though I continue to believe you have a massive CA problem.  The Big 12 secured their Texas base.   The PAC is more worried about maintaining IVY league status.   
 

Heck I live in Sac and the PAC -12 might as well be the SEC given the press and interest they get.   Too geographically concentrated, too few graduates and the ones you have barely care about sports.  Fresno has the 2nd most passionate fan base, Big 12 like, in CA and they aren’t ever getting invited.   SDSU likely isn’t either.  

[utenation]

On 7/31/2022 at 12:35 AM, sactowndog said:

Perhaps though I continue to believe you have a massive CA problem.  The Big 12 secured their Texas base.   The PAC is more worried about maintaining IVY league status.   
 

Heck I live in Sac and the PAC -12 might as well be the SEC given the press and interest they get.   Too geographically concentrated, too few graduates and the ones you have barely care about sports.  Fresno has the 2nd most passionate fan base, Big 12 like, in CA and they aren’t ever getting invited.   SDSU likely isn’t either.  

In the recent board meetings I’m pretty sure the CA situation was analyzed thoroughly. Just simple logic here. 

USC/UCLA have struggled for years to even remotely fill their stadiums and didn’t really light up the TV ratings compared to brands in their bucket. Mostly USC.  The LA tv market is very valuable to bean counters as well as  the fertile recruiting grounds. 
 

Let’s also not forget about the PHX, SF, Seattle, Denver, Portland and SLC tv markets. Certainly not chump change. 

[utgrizfan]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:05 PM, Wyobraska said:

For two schools from CA?  I'd call that a pretty shitty pod for them. 

It was in reference to the rumors that the BIG10 was considered Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Utah. Was away for a bit and stumbled acrossed this apparent rumor. The Pod in question would have been Utah with Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Granted I think it's an outlandish rumor, only brought it uo due to multiple reports of it on a few other forums.

[The Brent Vigen Diet]

This doesn’t get mentioned enough but I think the main reason allot of people are skeptical of the Big 12 getting a massive raise in their media deal hinges on the fact that they lost OUT and gained BYU, UCF , Cinci, and Houston. Those four teams, as successful as they have been in the last 10 years, are a fraction of the value UT and OU command. One other thing to point out, there are very few states on the Big 12 map where the Big 12 school is the biggest draw for college football. Kansas and West Virginia I guess with BYU capturing a slight majority in Utah. Somebody please explain to me how they are going to get 40 or 50 million per school a year? 

[raadsel]

On 7/30/2022 at 4:44 PM, Spaztecs said:

I'm thinking ND stays with NBC. NBC then inks a deal with the PAC for a game to follow the ND broadcast. That way they can do a primetime ND telecast on the East Coast and a PAC West Coast primetime game as well. Two games when ND is on the road. Maybe not the 1st pick of PAC games, but the 2nd pick.

That would be worth a few frijoles.

NBC is not going to contract with the PAC for late night games. Showing a "West Coast primetime" game would preempt Saturday Night Live -- NBC has zero interest in a PAC primetime game to follow a Notre Dame East coast game.

[SDSUfan]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:35 PM, sactowndog said:

Perhaps though I continue to believe you have a massive CA problem.  The Big 12 secured their Texas base.   The PAC is more worried about maintaining IVY league status.   
 

Heck I live in Sac and the PAC -12 might as well be the SEC given the press and interest they get.   Too geographically concentrated, too few graduates and the ones you have barely care about sports.  Fresno has the 2nd most passionate fan base, Big 12 like, in CA and they aren’t ever getting invited.   SDSU likely isn’t either.  

The B12 hasn't "secured" their Texas base, the SEC has. The B12 has the 3rd through 6th best/ most popular programs in the state, if you exclude Oklahoma which may well be the third most popular. The AAC has three teams in the state.  How exactly is that secure?

 

[sactowndog]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:51 PM, utenation said:

In the recent board meetings I’m pretty sure the CA situation was analyzed thoroughly. Just simple logic here. 

USC/UCLA have struggled for years to even remotely fill their stadiums and didn’t really light up the TV ratings compared to brands in their bucket. Mostly USC.  The LA tv market is very valuable to bean counters as well as  the fertile recruiting grounds. 
 

Let’s also not forget about the PHX, SF, Seattle, Denver, Portland and SLC tv markets. Certainly not chump change. 

No they didn’t though the Fresno game was one of UCLA’s higher attended games.  The PAC has had an elitism problem for a while.  Funny enough you turn off parents when you send out 85% rejection letters.   
 

and no those aren’t bad markets but it doesn’t change the 63% fact.   Heck just the San Joaquin Valley has the same population as Oregon and more than Utah.