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Exodus from California driving up home prices across the country

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I bought a condo in Boise in 2002 for 72k. Lender didn’t verify my income(which is probably why the market crashed lol) but I was making 12 bucks an hour. Saved $6000 for a down payment. Had money to pay the bills and have fun on the weekends. 
 

 Can’t do that anymore. Feel bad for the young adults starting out in life.

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Investor demand is so much of the problem and the investor class is growing, through ability and mindset. But we need houses to live in. They're not just any ordinary commodity. Make houses homes again. Deincentivize investing in res real estate. 

 

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On 2/22/2022 at 4:10 PM, toonkee said:

Investor demand is so much of the problem and the investor class is growing, through ability and mindset. But we need houses to live in. They're not just any ordinary commodity. Make houses homes again. Deincentivize investing in res real estate. 

 

What gives the investment its value is that their is a steady supply of renters who demand a supply of hosing. The investors are busy acting rationally, but buying assets that appreciate in value. 
investirs aren’t the problem, a la k of supply is the problem. I’ve read articles that a lot of builders who really got burned in the 08 crises were very cautious to not overbuild in the last decade. Take that abs the fact that Millenials are coming into their home buying years and you get a supply demand mismatch. 
 

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11 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

What gives the investment its value is that their is a steady supply of renters who demand a supply of hosing. The investors are busy acting rationally, but buying assets that appreciate in value. 
investirs aren’t the problem, a la k of supply is the problem. I’ve read articles that a lot of builders who really got burned in the 08 crises were very cautious to not overbuild in the last decade. Take that abs the fact that Millenials are coming into their home buying years and you get a supply demand mismatch. 
 

Yes, it's a lot of related things. But it's funny how cheap money keeps creating housing shortages. Somehow, we didn't have a housing shortage from 08-17. Don't think we experienced a sudden population decline those years. 

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On 2/22/2022 at 11:05 PM, toonkee said:

Yes, it's a lot of related things. But it's funny how cheap money keeps creating housing shortages. Somehow, we didn't have a housing shortage from 08-17. Don't think we experienced a sudden population decline those years. 

New home construction didn't really recover until 2020. All my clients were slow playing new developments until recently. Now they are developing more lots in one year than they had done in the past 10 combined. There was also a huge move to more urban settings post 2009. You saw lots more high rise condos and converted warehouses. Now everyone is going back out to the suburbs and rural areas.

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On 2/22/2022 at 10:36 PM, HR_Poke said:

New home construction didn't really recover until 2020. All my clients were slow playing new developments until recently. Now they are developing more lots in one year than they had done in the past 10 combined. There was also a huge move to more urban settings post 2009. You saw lots more high rise condos and converted warehouses. Now everyone is going back out to the suburbs and rural areas.

Infill it’s what’s happening in SD on a very large scale. There just aren’t any level areas left to develop as greenfields. There are construction cranes all over the city but they still can’t keep up with demand. Rents are sky high and housing prices increased by %25 in the last 12 months. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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On 2/22/2022 at 10:46 PM, bornontheblue said:

What gives the investment its value is that their is a steady supply of renters who demand a supply of hosing. The investors are busy acting rationally, but buying assets that appreciate in value. 
investirs aren’t the problem, a la k of supply is the problem. I’ve read articles that a lot of builders who really got burned in the 08 crises were very cautious to not overbuild in the last decade. Take that abs the fact that Millenials are coming into their home buying years and you get a supply demand mismatch. 
 

You're right but so is he. There are a lot of institutional investors that buy up properties and rent them as VRBOs which restricts the supply even more since it isn't going to rentals who are living in the area.

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17 hours ago, toonkee said:

Investor demand is so much of the problem and the investor class is growing, through ability and mindset. But we need houses to live in. They're not just any ordinary commodity. Make houses homes again. Deincentivize investing in res real estate. 

 

Investing in real estate is one of the best and only investing options for the "common person" that can actually make a life changing difference. Elite level investors will build houses if they can make money, but the cost of materials right now is part of what is keeping demand so high. New builds are not keeping up. In the early 2000's builders were throwing up tract homes as far as the eye can see as fast as possible because lenders would give anyone a home. What we are seeing is the full correction from 2008.

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On 2/23/2022 at 8:37 AM, Old_SD_Dude said:

Infill it’s what’s happening in SD on a very large scale. There just aren’t any level areas left to develop as greenfields. There are construction cranes all over the city but they still can’t keep up with demand. Rents are sky high and housing prices increased by %25 in the last 12 months. 

We are subexing on massive scales here.  Pretty crazy the amount of dirt reclamation they can do and still make a profit.  They are pushing developments east too out into the ranch land and prairie.  Even building just outside of the airports noise ordinance area.  

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All I really know is that if estimates are to be believed, I've built up $250-300k in equity in my house since I bought it six years ago this month. A good portion of that came in the last year and a half, along with my extra principal payments. There are townhouses going up around my neighborhood that are STARTING from $300k, which is more than I bought my 3,000 sq ft house for. 

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On 2/22/2022 at 9:46 PM, bornontheblue said:

What gives the investment its value is that their is a steady supply of renters who demand a supply of hosing. The investors are busy acting rationally, but buying assets that appreciate in value. 
investirs aren’t the problem, a la k of supply is the problem. I’ve read articles that a lot of builders who really got burned in the 08 crises were very cautious to not overbuild in the last decade. Take that abs the fact that Millenials are coming into their home buying years and you get a supply demand mismatch. 
 

They didn't really have much choice, the banks were so leery they were very conservative with construction financing. Often requiring proof of presales before releasing funds. Builders weren't able to spec build and get out in front of the demand. 

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On 2/23/2022 at 10:32 AM, retrofade said:

All I really know is that if estimates are to be believed, I've built up $250-300k in equity in my house since I bought it six years ago this month. A good portion of that came in the last year and a half, along with my extra principal payments. There are townhouses going up around my neighborhood that are STARTING from $300k, which is more than I bought my 3,000 sq ft house for. 

It is really stupid right now. Boise Market is insane. 

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On 2/23/2022 at 12:54 PM, bornontheblue said:

It is really stupid right now. Boise Market is insane. 

Yes, it really is quite stupid right now. We also have a massive shortage of inventory, which drives the prices up even further. Realtors are recommending upwards of $30k for due diligence money right now. But we have people from the northeast and the west coast coming in here and dropping cash offers for houses and buying up what is out there. A house in my neighborhood with the same sized lot, but 600 less sq ft just sold for $450k a few weeks ago because a cash buyer came in and just outbid everyone else. Also, that house sold within two days of being on the market. 

With all of the tech companies coming in here — Apple is opening a billion dollar campus, Google is building an engineering hub, and Amazon is massively expanding their AWS footprint — it's just going to get worse before it gets better. Even with all of the new developments going in, the local realtor associating is expecting inventory to still stay low for at least the next year or so. 

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On 2/23/2022 at 9:54 AM, bornontheblue said:

It is really stupid right now. Boise Market is insane. 

it's stupid everywhere but one thing I guarantee is that all your neighbors on "Neighbors" are bitching and moaning about any new planned developments in your neighborhood :pitchforks:

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On 2/21/2022 at 3:47 PM, bigd said:

Then what is driving up home prices in California?? Despite supposedly losing all these people California prices are going up a crazy rates as well.

 

They're going up everywhere, even parts of the rust belt that hadn't seen appreciation in a long time.

California has a special breed of NIMBY insanity.  The state is basically dragging cities kicking and screaming into zoning for more housing now. 

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22 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

Hmm house prices and rent prices have been going up here for a while now. $567,000 is the median price here and going up still and average rent is $1,500.

The bubble is going to burst at some point, some talking heads think its closer than people think

Rent at my apartment complex is nearly double what it was when i moved in.

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On 2/23/2022 at 10:50 AM, renoskier said:

They didn't really have much choice, the banks were so leery they were very conservative with construction financing. Often requiring proof of presales before releasing funds. Builders weren't able to spec build and get out in front of the demand. 

Yep. That's changing now atleast in Denver. I know of two developments in douglas county where developers were contemplating building the whole 1,000+ home development as spec homes.

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On 2/23/2022 at 11:07 AM, renoskier said:

it's stupid everywhere but one thing I guarantee is that all your neighbors on "Neighbors" are bitching and moaning about any new planned developments in your neighborhood :pitchforks:

Lol yep. Half the posts I read on next-door are people complaining and trying to stop new developments.

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On 2/23/2022 at 1:18 PM, Rofl_copter_dos said:

California has a special breed of NIMBY insanity.  The state is basically dragging cities kicking and screaming into zoning for more housing now. 

NIMBYs are freaking terrible. I remember when they put in a whole host of duplexes and triplexes in Visalia back in the mid-late 00s, and people about lost their minds over it. Hell, that wasn't even multi-use land or anything, which they probably would have freaked out even worse over. 

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4 minutes ago, retrofade said:

NIMBYs are freaking terrible. I remember when they put in a whole host of duplexes and triplexes in Visalia back in the mid-late 00s, and people about lost their minds over it. Hell, that wasn't even multi-use land or anything, which they probably would have freaked out even worse over. 

It's a special sort of suburban mindset that sees getting away from any sort of multifamily housing within your sight range as a core component of the american dream, and it's not tied to Team Red or Team Blue.  Recently griped to my parents that Clovis's refusal to build any kind of non-luxury complexes was enabling my apartment complex to jack rates up and they responded "well what if the homeowners don't want to live near an apartment complex?"

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