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Exodus from California driving up home prices across the country

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On 2/22/2022 at 1:03 PM, happycamper said:

Bitch I didn't say "a sweet home". I said "any home". 

Let's do some math. Say you live in Seattle. You start work as a mechanical engineer. Sweet! You're making 70k/year out of college. 

To buy an 800 SF house in Tukwila, you need 410k. Huh. That's out of your price range. OK, well, you're priced out of the smallest home in the area. Let's give this guy credit say they can save up enough of a down payment to avoid PMI. They start saving at 23, saving an incredible 20% of their gross income for 6 years without a single hiccup somehow. Sweet! That's about 80k saved up!

That house in Tukwila is now worth 550k. 

Let's wind it back 10 years. Now this mechanical engineer graduated in 2010. They're making 60k/year. That same house in Tukwila is worth....

About 160k. 

People in the upper ~10% of the income ladder are getting priced out of home ownership, let alone the middle ~30%. That's a failure of the American dream you are blabbering about. 

Saving for 6 years sounds about right.  Now take that $80k and find a home where you can live with the commute.  Then in 10 years take that equity and get a nicer one if you desire.  That is literally the example i gave in my post above.  

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Just now, alum93 said:

Saving for 6 years sounds about right.  Now take that $80k and find a home where you can live with the commute.  Then in 10 years take that equity and get a nicer one if you desire.  That is literally the example i gave in my post above.  

Can you read?

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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On 2/22/2022 at 1:10 PM, happycamper said:

 

Can you read?

Yes, you used Seattle as an example.  Which is where a friend recently moved, and he was even a mechanical engineer.  This was about 3 years ago.  First thing he said was they couldn't afford to live in the city.  He commutes about 45 minutes if memory serves.  Couldn't tell you where he found the house, but he did.  $70k sounds low for an engineer in Seattle, but i can't quote you his salary.  I am guessing it's more like $100k.  He has 2 young kids too.  It can be done,  He had 10 years of experience when he moved from southwest.  Took the equity from his home here.  Literally like the example i gave, including exact location you mentioned.  And yes, he can't afford to live with the rich folk.  But he found a house close enough.  Living the dream,  BSME,  2 kids, house, nice city... Boom.

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Hmm house prices and rent prices have been going up here for a while now. $567,000 is the median price here and going up still and average rent is $1,500.

The bubble is going to burst at some point, some talking heads think its closer than people think

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1 minute ago, alum93 said:

Yes, you used Seattle as an example.  Which is where a friend recently moved, and he was even a mechanical engineer.  This was about 3 years ago.  First thing he said was they couldn't afford to live in the city.  He commutes about 45 minutes if memory serves.  Couldn't tell you where he found the house, but he did.  $70k sounds low for an engineer in Seattle, but i can't quote you his salary.  I am guessing it's more like $100k.  He has 2 young kids too.  It can be done,

So... no. You can't read. My post would be good practice for you. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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On 2/22/2022 at 1:14 PM, happycamper said:

So... no. You can't read. My post would be good practice for you. 

I am pushing back that you can't have the kids and house and live close to a cool city.  I don't believe it.  I am a perfect example, and my coworker that moved to Seattle is as well.  Now you have me interested though.  I am curious what he makes to live close enough to commute and work in Seattle and have a house.  Clearly he chose a good degree.  Your example also doesn't jive with literally all the professionals i know, many who have kids.  Off the top of my head,  I can reference friends/family with homes and families in Seattle, San Antonio, Albq, Austin, Santa Clarita, El Paso, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas.  All the stories are similar.  College degrees (almost all of them),  been working since they graduated, moved a few times with jobs.  I must be missing something.  Don't take it personal, just different experiences I guess.

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On 2/21/2022 at 2:39 PM, robe said:

https://www.fox29.com/news/will-real-estate-housing-market-crash-or-cool-off-in-2022-experts-give-their-2-cents

Keep you asses in your Democrat utopia. I can’t buy houses making a 15% cap rate anymore because of all the Democrats bailing on New York and California. 
 

You morons don’t have to move, just vote Republican.

If you own a home, or homes, increasing home value is a good thing

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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10 minutes ago, alum93 said:

I am pushing back that you can't have the kids and house and live close to a cool city.  I don't believe it.  I am a perfect example, and my coworker that moved to Seattle is as well.  Now you have me interested though.  I am curious what he makes to live close enough to commute and work in Seattle and have a house.  Clearly he chose a good degree.  Your example also doesn't jive with literally all the professionals i know, many who have kids.  Off the top of my head,  I can reference friends/family with homes and families in Seattle, San Antonio, Albq, Austin, Santa Clarita, El Paso, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas.  All the stories are similar.  College degrees (almost all of them),  been working since they graduated, moved a few times with jobs.  I must be missing something.  Don't take it personal, just different experiences I guess.

Buddy go back and re-read what I have written in this thread. All of your points are addressed ahead of time. Makes the prospect of interacting with you dismal if you can't keep up from your first post. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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On 2/22/2022 at 1:28 PM, happycamper said:

Buddy go back and re-read what I have written in this thread. All of your points are addressed ahead of time. Makes the prospect of interacting with you dismal if you can't keep up from your first post. 

I was responding to this one.  Second time, don't take it personal.  I don't share in the doom and gloom for the kids today.  If anything, i'm jealous of the opportunities that will come from technology.

 

I wonder this too. It's nuts. Between my wife and I we made 34 bucks an hour right after college, enough to afford a 230k house in Casper. My (copious) overtime paid for anything fun or even unexpected. 

Flash forward 10 years, the same house sold for about 330k. We sold our house in Wenatchee - half the size - for 400k. Starter homes in Boise are right around 500k. 

So what that there are tons of 20 buck/hour jobs right now? Someone making 20 bucks an hour can afford what, a 170k house? Maybe? Where is anyone finding that in any major city? Where is anyone even finding a 350k house in a major city for two breadwinners? How is anyone expected to ever build wealth or have kids? 

Millennials got kissed by this, but Zoomers are gonna get +++++ed. 

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14 minutes ago, wolfpack1 said:

Hmm house prices and rent prices have been going up here for a while now. $567,000 is the median price here and going up still and average rent is $1,500.

The bubble is going to burst at some point, some talking heads think its closer than people think

They say there is no bubble. Maybe a slight correction or a stagnation in prices for a couple years.

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https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/us-housing-risk

This risk assessment from JP is interesting. I feel like the key difference between 2006 and today is long term investors playing a much larger role now. The sign for this, imo, is the lack of mounting housing debt compared to 2006(Guess who all those cash buyers are you keep hearing about). There is still risk in the places where prices are the most extreme, but we shouldn't expect anything like the last time. Any correction to prices will likely be more localized as a result. 

 

 

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Bob said:

They say there is no bubble. Maybe a slight correction or a stagnation in prices for a couple years.

I see it less of a bubble and more of a symptom of inflation. But I've been wrong before. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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On 2/22/2022 at 11:55 AM, Bob said:

Wages just have not kept up with housing prices. Not to mention cost of education. Had I been even 7-8 years younger my life would have been so much different (in a bad way).  

Holy shit Bob is human.

 

And I agree, bought my first house in 2008 for 183k in SE Boise. Not that Zillow is always accurate but it shows the same house being worth 523k. Which is batshit crazy it’s not even that nice of a house.

 

 

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On 2/22/2022 at 12:24 PM, SalinasSpartan said:

And if you don’t, well then phuck you! Shoulda been born earlier or had rich parents amiright? 

Where did I say that?

Shocker. It was hard to buy a house when I bought my first one  30 years ago. I had to scrimp and save. Had to clear my credit. Had to borrow money from my dad and had to pay PMI because I couldn't get the the magic 20% down.  THEN I was house poor for a few years. 

My father had to buy his first home in 1960 with his mother in law on the note.

It's not supposed to be easy. It isn't the home that's key to financial stability. It's the habits and discipline required one must adopt to buy it. 

Granted, it's harder now but not impossible. Homes don't stay on the market here in SD for more than a few days so someone is obviously buying them. By definition, half of the homes on the market are below the median price. 

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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On 2/22/2022 at 11:44 AM, bornontheblue said:

I live in the same house I bought after market crash in 2009. I paid $127,000 for my house. 

You might be able to find a cardboard box under the bridge in Boise for that now. 

Yeah I bought mine in late 2009 as a short sale for $315K. It's now easily over a $1M. In 2011 I bought a $365K probate sale house and sold it for $700K in 2018. It would definitely be over $1M now too. Real estate has always been high here, but now it is just bonkers due to no supply. The LA Times said SD is now the most expensive market in the nation when comparing income to prices. Not exactly a desirable distinction...

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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29 minutes ago, IanforHeisman said:

Holy shit Bob is human.

 

And I agree, bought my first house in 2008 for 183k in SE Boise. Not that Zillow is always accurate but it shows the same house being worth 523k. Which is batshit crazy it’s not even that nice of a house.

 

 

3FD6D2F7-459A-4259-804B-0E6D2E0D4B4D.jpeg

We were looking up stuff on my grandparents house in California, because of some medical issues my uncle has been having, and looked it up this way and for a 3 bedroom 1 bath house, depending on the website is worth anything from 825,000 to 900,000 and was built in 1956. We were like holy shit this market is getting out of hand

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On 2/22/2022 at 1:28 PM, SDSUfan said:

Where did I say that?

Shocker. It was hard to buy a house when I bought my first one  30 years ago. I had to scrimp and save. Had to clear my credit. Had to borrow money from my dad and had to pay PMI because I couldn't get the the magic 20% down.  THEN I was house poor for a few years. 

My father had to buy his first home in 1960 with his mother in law on the note.

It's not supposed to be easy. It isn't the home that's key to financial stability. It's the habits and discipline required one must adopt to buy it. 

Granted, it's harder now but not impossible. Homes don't stay on the market here in SD for more than a few days so someone is obviously buying them. By definition, half of the homes on the market are below the median price. 

Yes, it was hard then, and it’s harder now, as has been discussed in this thread due to stagnant wage growth. This isn’t some woe is me post, me and my family are doing perfectly fine as is renting. But looking at having to spend 700k to buy a house in wonderful (sarcasm) Salinas is pretty damn depressing, ngl. Especially when you can’t just call up mommy or daddy to borrow money for a down payment.

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