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Nevada Convert

Proof: Trump Is Done

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1 minute ago, Nevada Convert said:

I was using it for the general because it was a poll with general voters. But there are polls on just the GOP, and they’re also bad for him. The GOP like the Dems want someone that can win a general. I was implying that voters seeing that Trump has no chance in the general will impact primary voting a lot.

Sure die hard Trumpers will stick with him. But those numbers are shrinking. Remember, the Q people, the Jan 6 people and the Proud Kids, Oath Breakers, etc. all HATE Trump now. His crazy base has shrunk. 

The scary thing for Trump is that the economy is working in his favor, i.e. if Trump had not had the sharp decline in his last 6 months in office or after, and the only bad things on memory were dumb tweets, a lot of people would be willing to forget about that so he could come back and get the economy good again. If the economy were really good now, that 29% might be 19%. 

I know it was the general 29 percent of the general electorate is over half of the republican party. So I'm saying that is no proof he won't win a primary.... With those numbers if he ran he would win the primary. 

It's a long ways off and I'm not saying he will win or will run but those numbers aren't proof of anything. 

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7 minutes ago, tspoke said:

I know it was the general 29 percent of the general electorate is over half of the republican party. So I'm saying that is no proof he won't win a primary.... With those numbers if he ran he would win the primary. 

It's a long ways off and I'm not saying he will win or will run but those numbers aren't proof of anything. 

You can’t absolutely prove anything until it actually happens. But when primary voters see that he’s only got a 29% approval rating just to run, who wins a general with 29%. When some of these 29% see this poll and others as we get closer, they’ll realize he has no chance and will switch to not wanting him to run. Also, I supposed there are a few Dems that want him to run in that 29 because they think he’d be easy to beat and they’d be right. 

kat.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, CV147 said:

Trump has endorsed vaccines. That will hurt him.

 The most extreme, anti-everything-COVID Republican will win.

Where do you come up with this stuff? About 65% of the GOP have gotten a vaccine shot and more intend to get one but haven’t yet. So vax tolerance in the GOP is probably 75%. The vast majority of the GOP aren’t totally against vaccines.

Sure, many waited longer out of caution for FDA approval and see how the others did on them. But it’s been more of a risk analysis individually than anything else, and that’s smart. I would never just shoot myself with something the gov told me to do without knowing a lot about it.,

kat.jpg

 

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In the poll's crosstabs it says only 26% of all respondents self-identified as Republican.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/MLSPSC06Toplines.html#Z1:_Party_ID

I'd want to see the breakout of responses on just that 26% before I started thinking about the GOP primaries. The 29% includes independents or others who would not likely be voting in GOP primaries.

The poll also said 28% of respondents self-identified as evangelical or born-again.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/MLSPSC06Toplines.html#Z4:_born-again_or_evangelical

Again I'd be curious to see that group's response breakout. That demographic has been a key part of Trump's base and has proven to be motivated to support him.

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Trump will easily win the GOP nomination. 

 

Whether he wins the general will be more interesting. Right now he would, but who knows what the environment will be in 2024.

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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On 1/27/2022 at 7:41 PM, Nevada Convert said:

You can’t absolutely prove anything until it actually happens. But when primary voters see that he’s only got a 29% approval rating just to run, who wins a general with 29%. When some of these 29% see this poll and others as we get closer, they’ll realize he has no chance and will switch to not wanting him to run. Also, I supposed there are a few Dems that want him to run in that 29 because they think he’d be easy to beat and they’d be right. 

Trump only had a 5% approval rating before he descended the Golden Escalator in 2016. Within a week he was in the mid 20's and after he raked Megan Kelly over the coals, he was a lock.

Most in the GQP say Trump is their Prez and he is leading polling now. If DeSantis runs against Trump he gets 14%. Against Jr, DeSantis moves up to 24%.

The GQP will nominate Trump even if he is in Prison.

 

https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/26/gop-primary-2024-polling/

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/27/2022 at 8:00 PM, IanforHeisman said:

I don’t think average Joe Republican knows her real name.. I think that will scare off  a good portion of the racist vote.

 

Nimrata Randhawa isn’t American enough for the rust belt.

Birtherism anyone ?

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 1/27/2022 at 6:42 PM, bornontheblue said:

It’s too far out to tell 

I think it's been proven presidential elections are merely HS class presidency elections at this point, and he knows how to market.  Never sell a bullshitter short.  It's why we can all know what car salesmen do yet still they can get you to purchase the extra sooper deluxe package and the extended warranty.

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On 1/28/2022 at 9:15 AM, Bob said:

If trump really is going to run (ugh!) he needs to stfu about himself and quit being a victim (fat chance). He should talk about the policies that made him popular in the first place.

He won’t do that 

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On 1/27/2022 at 5:20 PM, Nevada Convert said:

I don’t know what it is about you guys that think Trump is still the lead guy in the GOP. I’ve been telling you for about 10 months or so that he’s completely and permanently damaged goods.

Approval numbers just mean people like him, but not necessarily that they want him to run again. Polls where they ask both are telling. But the important question is if voters want him to run again. 

In a new poll, only 29% want Trump to run again. Trump loses by 11 to Biden in a head to head today. And we all know how low Biden is in the polls. That’s like asking if you prefer dog shit or cat shit. Shit is shit.

DeSantis is a geeky unlikable dork that sounds like he’s whining 24/7 with his annoying irky sounding voice. He just gets attention because Florida is a big state and he done well in some areas. The media have helped to create a guy they don’t like. 

As I’ve said a million times, Nicki Haley is positioning herself perfectly to run away with the nomination. She’s not in office so she doesn’t get much attention right now, but in a year she’ll be front and center selling that she has many of the good positions that Trump has had, not the bad, and she’s not Trump the person. Basically all good without the bad.

She was also very critical of Trump when he screwed up, so she can’t get painted as a Trump shill or ass kisser. Trump also likes her a lot despite being critical of him which is unheard of. Trump lovers also like her. 

So she can get the base support Trump gets but also get the votes Trump couldn’t such as the women’s vote, indy’s, the never-Trumpers and even many conservative-mod Dems. Some of the right wingers won’t want her, but they’ll vote for her in the general. 
 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/591590-biden-leading-trump-desantis-by-similar-margins-in-new-poll

Can I request we get a Ben Sasse, or Adam Kinzinger, or John Kasich to run on the GOP ticket instead? :shrug:

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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