Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

robe

Early look at senate races

Recommended Posts

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/716324/red-wave-alert-for-senate-democrats/

what appeared to be a Democratic map for Democrats now looks pretty bleak. Republicans are leading in Nevada and Colorado and New Hamphire are in play. Wisconsin Democrat party has gone so far left the Republican incumbent looks pretty safe. Republicans lead a generic poll by 3 points. Biden had poll numbers in the 30s today. 
 

it looks like most the swing states will go Republican if it was held today. Picks up in Nevada, AZ, Goergia, holds in the others. 52 to 54 Republicans. 2024 is an even better opportunity for Republicans. 2022 has a number Republicans up for states Biden won. Those no longer look likely for Democrat pick ups. 

The Masters 5k road race All American.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

Doubt CO votes in a republican senator.  Bennet is a milk toast candidate and always has been. But I think CO has swung blue.

You gotta remember this is the view from under the bridge.

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Biggest unknown is how the trump cult will react if he isn't the nominee - if the trump cult stays home or if the orange clown runs a '"Orange Clown Party" race, that could split republicans 

in 2024 trump is the big question.........will GOP fight him off in primaries? Will trump screw the GOP by running outside & bring his cult along? 

Best thing for Dems would be to convince Biden one term is enough.........get a solid appealing candidate & hope that trump shreds republicans into two parties 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, robe said:

what appeared to be a Democratic map for Democrats now looks pretty bleak.

There are really only 7 seats in play.

NH - Hassan (D) is currently up a ton (42-24 on Smith, 43-27 on Morse, and 43-36 on Bolduc).  Things are going to have to get quite a bit worse for this to be in play for Republicans.

GA - Warnock (D) is in serious trouble. Primary for Republicans is basically Hershel Walker (name recognition and Trump support) versus GA Ag Commishioner Gary Black.  Warnock would beat Black, but Hershel is ahead in the head-to-head polls and is ahead in the primary so far.

NV - Cortez Masto (D) is in serious trouble.  Trailing Adam Laxalt by 3-4 points.

PA - OPEN (R) is in play.  Fetterman (D) leading Oz (R) in latest poll (December) by 2 points.

WI - Ron Johnson (R) is neck-at-neck in the polls with a millennial Mandela Barnes. 

NC - OPEN (R) is in play. Beasley (D) is behind by 1-2 points to all four of the Republican candidates.

AZ - Mark Kelly is up by 3 on both challengers this week (the worst time polling-wise in the last year).  I think this is a relatively safe seat for Democrats.

---

If the election were held today, it looks like Democrats would win AZ, PA, and NH. And NV, WI, GA, and NC are all potential Democrat wins as well.  Sub 4% unemployment this summer and sub 4% inflation will start shifting things back blue IMO. And Hershel Walker not going to win a debate vs. Warnock.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bsu_alum9 said:

There are really only 7 seats in play.

NH - Hassan (D) is currently up a ton (42-24 on Smith, 43-27 on Morse, and 43-36 on Bolduc).  Things are going to have to get quite a bit worse for this to be in play for Republicans.

GA - Warnock (D) is in serious trouble. Primary for Republicans is basically Hershel Walker (name recognition and Trump support) versus GA Ag Commishioner Gary Black.  Warnock would beat Black, but Hershel is ahead in the head-to-head polls and is ahead in the primary so far.

NV - Cortez Masto (D) is in serious trouble.  Trailing Adam Laxalt by 3-4 points.

PA - OPEN (R) is in play.  Fetterman (D) leading Oz (R) in latest poll (December) by 2 points.

WI - Ron Johnson (R) is neck-at-neck in the polls with a millennial Mandela Barnes. 

NC - OPEN (R) is in play. Beasley (D) is behind by 1-2 points to all four of the Republican candidates.

AZ - Mark Kelly is up by 3 on both challengers this week (the worst time polling-wise in the last year).  I think this is a relatively safe seat for Democrats.

---

If the election were held today, it looks like Democrats would win AZ, PA, and NH. And NV, WI, GA, and NC are all potential Democrat wins as well.  Sub 4% unemployment this summer and sub 4% inflation will start shifting things back blue IMO. And Hershel Walker not going to win a debate vs. Warnock.

Hershel isn't the runaway a lot of people think it might be. Warnock is going to hammer him on his past statements regarding his own mental health, fair or not. Hershel can't win on platitudes alone. Name recognition might carry him big, though.

I think Kelley is going to get the loss in a non presidential year. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, scounty said:

I think Kelley is going to get the loss in a non presidential year.

Governor Ducey just announced he's not running.  So it's Kelly vs. Brnovich.  He's the Arizona AG who's been criticized from both sides on the handling of the 2020 election and its audits.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

There are really only 7 seats in play.

NH - Hassan (D) is currently up a ton (42-24 on Smith, 43-27 on Morse, and 43-36 on Bolduc).  Things are going to have to get quite a bit worse for this to be in play for Republicans.

GA - Warnock (D) is in serious trouble. Primary for Republicans is basically Hershel Walker (name recognition and Trump support) versus GA Ag Commishioner Gary Black.  Warnock would beat Black, but Hershel is ahead in the head-to-head polls and is ahead in the primary so far.

NV - Cortez Masto (D) is in serious trouble.  Trailing Adam Laxalt by 3-4 points.

PA - OPEN (R) is in play.  Fetterman (D) leading Oz (R) in latest poll (December) by 2 points.

WI - Ron Johnson (R) is neck-at-neck in the polls with a millennial Mandela Barnes. 

NC - OPEN (R) is in play. Beasley (D) is behind by 1-2 points to all four of the Republican candidates.

AZ - Mark Kelly is up by 3 on both challengers this week (the worst time polling-wise in the last year).  I think this is a relatively safe seat for Democrats.

---

If the election were held today, it looks like Democrats would win AZ, PA, and NH. And NV, WI, GA, and NC are all potential Democrat wins as well.  Sub 4% unemployment this summer and sub 4% inflation will start shifting things back blue IMO. And Hershel Walker not going to win a debate vs. Warnock.

IN Nevada, anytime Adam Laxalt Domenici (Dad is former New Mexico US Senator Pete Domenici - Frim an affair in DC) is on the ballot he has trouble winning - He lucked into the NV AG seat for one term when Dems had no governor candidate due to Brian Sandoval on the R side.......ever since then he's lost - Plus he's all in on the trump lies 

Laxalt might not make it out of the GOP primary with Sam Brown (another carpetbagger) gaining steam on the R side 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 702Canary said:

So polls are real now and not faked or rigged?   Amazing.  Polls were fake from 2015-2020.  But now they are to be believed.

LMAO at some of the clowns on this forum.

Remember when between 2009 & 2016 the economic number were all fkaed & cooked, then suddenly became legit in 2017 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Remember when between 2009 & 2016 the economic number were all fkaed & cooked, then suddenly became legit in 2017 

I did love hearing for years that "real" unemployment was far higher than the numbers stated. Them when Trump, the numbers were accurate, now that Biden is President, the "real" numbers are back to being higher again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, retrofade said:

I did love hearing for years that "real" unemployment was far higher than the numbers stated. Them when Trump, the numbers were accurate, now that Biden is President, the "real" numbers are back to being higher again. 

Same with the stock market indicators - trump always talking up the record DJI, but now you never hear about it much 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Poll: Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans say they will not vote for any candidate who admits Biden won 'fair and square'

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-nearly-6-in-10-republicans-say-they-will-not-vote-for-any-candidate-who-admits-biden-won-fair-and-square-162231610.html

Despite a mountain of evidence showing the 2020 presidential contest wasn’t rigged against Donald Trump, nearly 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (57 percent) now say they will not vote in upcoming elections for any candidate who admits that Joe Biden won the presidency "fair and square."

Only 17 percent say they would consider voting for a candidate who accurately characterizes Biden’s victory as legitimate.

These numbers underscore the degree to which Trump’s “big lie” claiming Biden cheated his way into the White House — a falsehood that three-quarters of Trump voters (74 percent) now believe — has become a litmus test for the entire GOP, crowding out other issues and strengthening Trump’s grip on the party ahead of the 2022 midterms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, retrofade said:

I did love hearing for years that "real" unemployment was far higher than the numbers stated. Them when Trump, the numbers were accurate, now that Biden is President, the "real" numbers are back to being higher again. 

Hey, it's all about the "labor participation rate"!!! :whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...