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Land war in Europe game thread! (with poll)

US Response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine  

65 members have voted

  1. 1. What should the US response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine be?

    • Nuke 'em
    • Full conventional military response, troops, tanks, fighters etc take part in defense of Ukraine
    • Air/missile strikes against key Russian military targets
    • Economic embargo of Russia
    • Economic sanctions against Russia
    • Cutoff diplomatic relations with Russia
    • Nothing.


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It’s been discussed here, but I went down the rabbit hole on Saturday night reading history as I was awake when Daylight Savings changed.  
 

I was reading and article about Taiwan,

then Chang Kai-Shek’s hometown just south of Shanghai,

then the Long March (6,000 mile journey from southern China to northwest China with a detour near Sichuan Province),

then the 1933 Tanggu Truce which pretty much ceded Manchuria to Japan so the Nationalists could finish off the Communists,

then Chang was kidnapped and then made to form an alliance with the Communists to fight Japan after the Marco Polo Bridge Incident just south of Beijing (a Japanese solder had the runs and went off into the woods to take a shit, but his military group went to look for him in a Chinese controlled village and shots were fired and a war started), 

then I wondered why the Japanese were even occupying territory in and around Beijing (called Beiping in the 1930’s because “jing” means “capital” and the capital was moved to Nanjing)

and so I had to learn about the Boxer Rebellion of 1900 and  in Beijing and Tianjin (Beijing’s port city) there were Christian Missionaries and Legations of various Western nations and Japan.  The Boxers with their spears and imperial soldiers attacked the foreigners.  I remember watching the movie “55 Days in Peking.”

got me thinking folks were fighting with spears in 1900.  And holy cow, in 1776 we had colonists.  And in 2000, or say 2024 we have what we are today.

Then I wondered has there ever been this much change in 200 years (1800-2000) ever before?

I picked a random 200 years, 1300 - 1500.  Doesn’t even compare (something like a clock was invented).  
 

Within our lifetimes, we will see unbelievable change.  In our kids’ life, if so luck to live pass 2100, the change will be even more.  Unbelievable.

 

I also thought about China and there was so much turmoil and humiliation (Opium War, Boxers, etc).  
 

Here we are today. 

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On 3/11/2024 at 1:27 AM, 415hawaiiboy said:

If you’re bored.

This was an interesting cartoon play by play of a China-Taiwan-US war.  The comments were very enlightening.

 

The short version is:  China does a first strike against US military and Taiwan mainly with missiles, and then starts their invasion.  By Day 3, allies attack back and establishes air superiority.  Things don’t look good for China.  Beach landings are hampered by artillery, drones, sea mines, underwater pipes spewing out oil and causing surface fires on the water.  One Child Policy enshrines that family bloodlines end with each battle field death.  An economic collapse occurs as food and oil  imports are cut off.

 

Hope this war never happens.  Commenters seem very bullish about US chances if attacked.  Less so if the conflict is limited to Taiwan and the West has to choose to get involved.

 

 

Saturday night, Fareed Zackaria had an interesting special on the possibility of a red China versus Taiwan war. The consensus was China might do better trying to blockade Taiwan rather than invading it. Although China has been building a lot of weaponry, China supposedly buys almost all of its microchips from Taiwan as 60% of the world's production is manufactured by an off-shoot of Texas Instruments there. As for a Chinese invasion of the US, armies always fight better on their home turf and China has very few battle-tested troops and command officers compared to the U.S. I was unaware of it but the biggest problem Taiwan now has is its far-right nationalist government the ruling party for which seems hell-bent on moving Taiwan back to authoritarianism rather than the democracy it's been over the last couple decades.

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On 3/10/2024 at 6:43 PM, grandjean87 said:

I had time on my hands traveling today and listened to a podcast. It's on YouTube, Spotify, etc.  Bill Kristol, yes that guy, is the host/interviewer, but the scholar positing his views is regional expert, Tim Snyder.  

A lot to unpack.  Condense it down, and the main thesis is that American politics will be the key determinant of the outcome of the war.  Professor Snyder has some interesting insights that are oft not spoken or written.  Along the listen, I was reminded of a teacher I had in 9th grade in the 1970s.  He was a New York escapee who favored (supposedly) benevolent dictatorship as better than democracy.  

Linked transcript: 
https://conversationswithbillkristol.org/transcript/timothy-snyder-on-ukraine-russia-america-and-whats-at-stake/

Linked interview.  Snyder went through some serious medical issues during the pandemic.  Not sure exactly what, but he looks different than before. 

 

I listened to some again driving today. Somewhere around 6 to 10+ mts. are some key things.

Two things linked stand out.  Ukraine doesn't have to take back all territory to win.  Its system has more lasting power and is ascending rather than descending (Snyder's positing).  At some point, the politics will shift.   If Ukraine is supported, it can still win.   There's a lot more nuance and related ideas in the linked conversation. 

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On 3/13/2024 at 11:21 PM, grandjean87 said:

I listened to some again driving today. Somewhere around 6 to 10+ mts. are some key things.

Two things linked stand out.  Ukraine doesn't have to take back all territory to win.  Its system has more lasting power and is ascending rather than descending (Snyder's positing).  At some point, the politics will shift.   If Ukraine is supported, it can still win.   There's a lot more nuance and related ideas in the linked conversation. 

Have you had an opportunity to read his book, On Tyranny yet?

 

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On 3/14/2024 at 6:31 AM, retrofade said:

Have you had an opportunity to read his book, On Tyranny yet?

 

No.  I really wasn't that familiar w/Snyder until researching some after listening to that interview.  I've probably heard or read some from him, but his name didn't stick.  It seems he had some basic, good advice from history (On Tyranny) how to avoid what has come about in small measures and threatens to grow.  Who the president is can really matter even if Costco still has those hot dog lunch deals accountants love.  

On Ukraine, Snyder posited its system is more sustainable over time (vs. Russia). Also, he noted, improvements in the society and form of government (Ukraine) although in the interview this was not fleshed out in detail.  This morning, I caught a free article from Foreign Affairs by Andrei Kolesnikov (not familiar) on the "hollowing out" of Russia under Putin.  This passage on demographics, along w/other parts, comports w/the idea that RU will have difficulties over the long haul. 

"According to forecasts by labor market specialists and demographers, by 2035 there will be three million to four million fewer Russians employed, the proportion of young people in the labor market will steadily decline, and the level of education of the labor force will stagnate. Under the most pessimistic scenario modeled by the state statistics service, by 2046, the population of Russia (excluding the four territories whose annexation from Ukraine was announced by the Kremlin in September 2022) will shrink by a total of 15.4 million people, equivalent to an average annual population decline of 700,000."

All that on top of all the families now missing dead sons and fathers from Putin's war.  Sons that will never be fathers.  Fathers who will never have more sons or daughters.  Kind of bleak future, but what does Vlad care about 2046?   He dead and gone then.  

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On 3/14/2024 at 10:13 AM, grandjean87 said:

No.  I really wasn't that familiar w/Snyder until researching some after listening to that interview.  I've probably heard or read some from him, but his name didn't stick.  It seems he had some basic, good advice from history (On Tyranny) how to avoid what has come about in small measures and threatens to grow.  Who the president is can really matter even if Costco still has those hot dog lunch deals accountants love.  

On Ukraine, Snyder posited its system is more sustainable over time (vs. Russia). Also, he noted, improvements in the society and form of government (Ukraine) although in the interview this was not fleshed out in detail.  This morning, I caught a free article from Foreign Affairs by Andrei Kolesnikov (not familiar) on the "hollowing out" of Russia under Putin.  This passage on demographics, along w/other parts, comports w/the idea that RU will have difficulties over the long haul. 

"According to forecasts by labor market specialists and demographers, by 2035 there will be three million to four million fewer Russians employed, the proportion of young people in the labor market will steadily decline, and the level of education of the labor force will stagnate. Under the most pessimistic scenario modeled by the state statistics service, by 2046, the population of Russia (excluding the four territories whose annexation from Ukraine was announced by the Kremlin in September 2022) will shrink by a total of 15.4 million people, equivalent to an average annual population decline of 700,000."

All that on top of all the families now missing dead sons and fathers from Putin's war.  Sons that will never be fathers.  Fathers who will never have more sons or daughters.  Kind of bleak future, but what does Vlad care about 2046?   He dead and gone then.  

I thought I had mentioned him elsewhere in this thread last year. But yeah, I highly recommend the book. He's an expert in Eastern Europe and Ukraine in particular. His revised version of said book was released in audio format (might be in print now) after Russia's invasion, and he tears down so much about Putin's arguments and excuses for the invasion. 

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On 3/14/2024 at 8:21 AM, retrofade said:

I thought I had mentioned him elsewhere in this thread last year. But yeah, I highly recommend the book. He's an expert in Eastern Europe and Ukraine in particular. His revised version of said book was released in audio format (might be in print now) after Russia's invasion, and he tears down so much about Putin's arguments and excuses for the invasion. 

I'll look for the newer revision or at least some commentary. 

To me, there are serious, critical questions about what to do from here.   I'd prefer the war ends yesterday, but Ukraine is in a situation it understands far deeper.  The ideas that the U.S. and Europe can easily sustain spending to allow Ukraine's survival and eventually achieve important objectives are hard to cast aside. 

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On 3/14/2024 at 6:31 AM, retrofade said:

Have you had an opportunity to read his book, On Tyranny yet?

 

You know how when you learn a new word or term, or even fully familiarize yourself w/one that was less familiar, and then it seems you encounter it regularly?   I was just listening to an interview on Fresh Air, and the author interviewee referenced a Tim Snyder quote.  "Post-Truth is Pre-Fascism".   

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On 3/11/2024 at 2:03 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

Saturday night, Fareed Zackaria had an interesting special on the possibility of a red China versus Taiwan war. The consensus was China might do better trying to blockade Taiwan rather than invading it. Although China has been building a lot of weaponry, China supposedly buys almost all of its microchips from Taiwan as 60% of the world's production is manufactured by an off-shoot of Texas Instruments there. As for a Chinese invasion of the US, armies always fight better on their home turf and China has very few battle-tested troops and command officers compared to the U.S. I was unaware of it but the biggest problem Taiwan now has is its far-right nationalist government the ruling party for which seems hell-bent on moving Taiwan back to authoritarianism rather than the democracy it's been over the last couple decades.

What are you talking about?  There isn't a new government in Taiwan, the existing ruling party was reelected in a highly contested election.

I know you have a worldview that conservatives are bad, and liberals are good. Which I obviously disagree with, but regardless, when you try to extrapolate that to other countries, it doesn't work.  Their definition of conservative and liberal is completely different than ours.  

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has achieved a historic feat by securing a third consecutive presidential victory. Despite China’s warnings that their re-election would escalate the risk of conflict, Taiwanese voters stood firm in their support for the DPP. The current Vice President, Lai Ching-te, declared victory, and his two opposition rivals conceded defeat. In his jubilant rally, Lai emphasized that this victory showcased the Taiwanese people’s commitment to democracy,

Taiwan revels in its young democracy as president-elect charts fresh course | Taiwan | The Guardian

Zackaria is an idiot btw.  But he's not wrong that China will most likely attempt something short of an invasion.

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