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On 1/25/2022 at 4:49 PM, NMpackalum said:

You can't transfer fiat across borders inexpensively or timely. As I mentioned before. You can transfer a billion dollars overseas in less than a minute for $10 dollars as was done earlier this year. There would be several middlemen and 3-4 days to do the same thing with fiat currency. Ethereum settled over 8 trillion transactions in 2021 from 1.5 trillion in 2020 so this train has left the station. And that's with ridiculous gas fees on Ethereum. That's why theres a mad dash to come up with cheaper and faster networks like Solana or Cardano. The NFT craze would explode even bigger with cheaper transaction fees.  The business implications from blockchain and it's utility tokens is revolutionary. Just in real estate alone, you could cut out middlemen with smart contracts. 

Fx markets are still huge at $6-7 trillion daily, iirc. I’ve read the predictions of crypto taking over cross border payments for some time now.  For lack of a better term the whole infrastructure isn’t there, and I’ll infer that crypto would need both a mature futures market and dramatically less price volatility which are implicit transactions costs. I don’t sell millions of dollars worth of apples to Taiwan, but I’ve found it easy and swift to transfer funds w/o fees domestically.

I think we will eventually see the Fed do a CBDG.  Sheila Bair, former FDIC chair, was pushing for one last year.  A lot to be worked out, but no reason a safe, transparent, and regulated digital currency could not be doable. Even w/limited intermediaries, transaction costs will be attractive given the dollar’s historical safety and stability.  Bair’s push had much to do with the stimulus payments and unemployment snafus.  I could see administrative savings especially for the huge agencies.  

But, yeh. It would be nice to sell your formerly $200k house that’s now $500k w/o those big chunks taken out.  

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On 1/25/2022 at 5:30 PM, grandjean87 said:

Fx markets are still huge at $6-7 trillion daily, iirc. I’ve read the predictions of crypto taking over cross border payments for some time now.  For lack of a better term the whole infrastructure isn’t there, and I’ll infer that crypto would need both a mature futures market and dramatically less price volatility which are implicit transactions costs. I don’t sell millions of dollars worth of apples to Taiwan, but I’ve found it easy and swift to transfer funds w/o fees domestically.

I think we will eventually see the Fed do a CBDG.  Sheila Bair, former FDIC chair, was pushing for one last year.  A lot to be worked out, but no reason a safe, transparent, and regulated digital currency could not be doable. Even w/limited intermediaries, transaction costs will be attractive given the dollar’s historical safety and stability.  Blair’s push had much to do with the stimulus payments and unemployment snafus.  I could see administrative savings especially for the huge agencies.  

But, yeh. It would be nice to sell your formerly $200k house that’s now $500k w/o those big chunks taken out.  

You mentioned Cathie Wood and Arkk earlier, of course I’m down 50 percent on it, but she came out yesterday with her thesis that BTC and Eth will hit 1.36 million and 180k by 2030. Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sacks fame also is a btc buyer now. Wood has been hit hard by the correction but her 5 year returns are more than double that of the SP 500 and well above QQQ. Hopefully it comes true. Doubtful that digital assets will take over as currency as some predict but when the dollar digitizes, it will be great for the industry as it will replace shadier liquidity assets like tether. With authoritarian regimes like China and Russia backing off on digital assets, the US needs to really dominate the space to maintain its reserve currency status.

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1 hour ago, NMpackalum said:

You mentioned Cathie Wood and Arkk earlier, of course I’m down 50 percent on it, but she came out yesterday with her thesis that BTC and Eth will hit 1.36 million and 180k by 2030. Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sacks fame also is a btc buyer now. Wood has been hit hard by the correction but her 5 year returns are more than double that of the SP 500 and well above QQQ. Hopefully it comes true. Doubtful that digital assets will take over as currency as some predict but when the dollar digitizes, it will be great for the industry as it will replace shadier liquidity assets like tether. With authoritarian regimes like China and Russia backing off on digital assets, the US needs to really dominate the space to maintain its reserve currency status.

I don’t have any of Cathy’s funds at present.  I do have a little of two of her individual bio holdings.  Both are down below my cost basis, but combined only 1+% of holdings.  I’m in a more conservative mode since last fall.  I think it’s a little too early for the flagship fund (ARKK) turnaround.  But, if someone isn’t a stock picker and wants a risk/reward profile farther up and to the right and has a longer horizon, it’s a fair choice based on past records. 

BTC to $1m has been a cry out there for awhile.  I read, listen, and watch a lot of stuff, but not enough to really think critically on BTC and ETH (and definitely not the alts).  Real critical thinking requires a deep learning in a certain domain and I think I can do that with some equities, but even there one is dealing with the uncertainties of future time. That said, I could see BTC multiples higher or lower from here in 2030, and maybe both at various intervals in between. 2030 is closer to now than 2013.  I plan to add small change to both (BTC and ETH) every couple of weeks or so.  I’ll continue to look for pin action equities in the space. COIN @19x PE finally tempted me this morning w/a small lot. I think we probably have more pain ahead on the long side, but you have to buy sometime @Maji

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10 minutes ago, grandjean87 said:

I don’t have any of Cathy’s funds at present.  I do have a little of two of her individual bio holdings.  Both are down below my cost basis, but combined only 1+% of holdings.  I’m in a more conservative mode since last fall.  I think it’s a little too early for the flagship fund (ARKK) turnaround.  But, if someone isn’t a stock picker and wants a risk/reward profile farther up and to the right and has a longer horizon, it’s a fair choice based on past records. 

BTC to $1m has been a cry out there for awhile.  I read, listen, and watch a lot of stuff, but not enough to really think critically on BTC and ETH (and definitely not the alts).  Real critical thinking requires a deep learning in a certain domain and I think I can do that with some equities, but even there one is dealing with the uncertainties of future time. That said, I could see BTC multiples higher or lower from here in 2030, and maybe both at various intervals in between. 2030 is closer to now than 2013.  I plan to add small change to both (BTC and ETH) every couple of weeks or so.  I’ll continue to look for pin action equities in the space. COIN @19x PE finally tempted me this morning w/a small lot. I think we probably have more pain ahead on the long side, but you have to buy sometime @Maji

Ha, that's exactly what I decided on to split the difference on my indecision, only on eth though.

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4 minutes ago, And? said:

Ha, that's exactly what I decided on to split the difference on my indecision, only on eth though.

If it’s a small part of disposable spending that one will never miss, I don’t see that strategy as having much risk (technically, it does).  I look at it like a savings account with a lot of volatility.  Look up in 5 years and maybe a nice gain? Of course, one can do that in equities buying fractional shares w/less risk.

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Not sure this deserves it own thread so dropping here...not about the stock market but this will probably affect the emotions of all those investing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-economy-grew-57-percent-in-2021-fastest-full-year-since-1984-despite-ongoing-pandemic/ar-AATcyNe

Quote

 

The U.S. economy grew by 5.7 percent in 2021, the fastest full-year clip since 1984, roaring back in the pandemic’s second year despite two new virus variants that rocked the country.

The growth was uneven, with a burst of government spending helping propel a fast start, even as a surge in new cases and deaths in the second half of the year created new pressures. The economy grew by 6.9 percent from October to December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday, a sharp acceleration from 2.3 percent in the previous quarter.

 

 

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On 1/25/2022 at 10:50 AM, grandjean87 said:

Anyone else buying?   I think we still go lower and maybe a good leg down?  Still, added a little MSFT and PYPL this morning to the F, HACK, and MCRB yesterday near lows.  Holding off most for that possible bigger pullback.

Maybe Jerome Powell will call Peter Doocey a dumb SOB at tomorrow’s presser?

I'm boring. VTSAX and chill for the most part

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47 minutes ago, grandjean87 said:

If it’s a small part of disposable spending that one will never miss, I don’t see that strategy as having much risk (technically, it does).  I look at it like a savings account with a lot of volatility.  Look up in 5 years and maybe a nice gain? Of course, one can do that in equities buying fractional shares w/less risk.

I figure just set it and forget it. Like reinvesting dividends. 

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2 minutes ago, Stealthlobo said:

Nice. I'm kinda iffy on UFO, it's that one YouTubers game, and I'm afraid it's just all bs hype. But maybe he's onto something....

 

A little UFO's worth a flyer at this price. ILV has held up better than many but it might drop some before it goes up much as there is a lockup expiration in March. 

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1 hour ago, Stealthlobo said:

Nice. I'm kinda iffy on UFO, it's that one YouTubers game, and I'm afraid it's just all bs hype. But maybe he's onto something....

 

Keep your eye on Solice, the first Solana metaverse introduced early this month. Will probably have a initial bump then fall back. On the other hand, people priced out of Sandbox and Decentraland may pile in in FOMO when it's up and running.

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38 minutes ago, NMpackalum said:

Keep your eye on Solice, the first Solana metaverse introduced early this month. Will probably have a initial bump then fall back. On the other hand, people priced out of Sandbox and Decentraland may pile in in FOMO when it's up and running.

Haven't heard of it, I'll start following it too. Thanks.

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