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slappy

3 Bid League ???

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12 minutes ago, The Brent Vigen Diet said:

We are definitely missing that stand out dominant  program like past years. SDSU has looked good and been consistent but probably doesn’t have the offense, CSU at times has looked it but has looked bad at times too. BSU, Fres, and Wyo all have their own liabilities.

We beat the anointed champs by 30.  Seems dominate to me.  Like I said, anything can happen.  We could be shit coming out of pause.  I doubt it, but its possible.  Lady luck has granted us two home games to get us  re-started. We'll know more by Monday night.  I like our squad. I think we'll be better than last years by the end of the season.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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3 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

We probably won't need it.  We'll see how we play coming out of the pause but from what I've seen of conference play we're a huge match up problem for most squads given the progress of Baker-Mazara, Johnson finding his role, Bradley settling in and Butler healthy.

There are still a lot of game to be played with a lot of things that can happen. What SDSU, CSU and such need to avoid is that bad loss because that would hang over the team

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1 minute ago, SLCPoke said:

Ugh. Hate when you’re right. I was just testing you bro 😂

I mean don't get me wrong, beating a top 75 team on the road is a big deal, hence the Q1 :)

The selection folks just won't weigh it as being more valuable than a top 30 home win.  Now a top 30 road win is a different matter.  

 

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1 hour ago, SLCPoke said:

CSU has played TWO true road games and was beat by 30 by a good Aztec team and beat lowly SJSU in the other. Let’s not forget that. I don’t know who CSU is until I see more true road games. 

But also the question is, did schools try to schedule more home games this year because of Covid. USF played a lot of home games this year as well so will they take into account.

But honestly anyone outside the P5 is always playing catchup anyway as the basketball season goes

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1 hour ago, HylianHero said:

SDSU beating Saint Mary's at home isn't a Quad 1 win right? CSU beat them at home as well, so if it is for SDSU, it would be for CSU too.

The St Mary's game was at a neutral site in Phoenix.

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2 hours ago, HylianHero said:

SDSU beating Saint Mary's at home isn't a Quad 1 win right? CSU beat them at home as well, so if it is for SDSU, it would be for CSU too.

 

1 hour ago, SDSUfan said:

Neutral site

 

1 hour ago, Aztec1984 said:

The St Mary's game was at a neutral site in Phoenix.

Quad 1 includes home games vs a top 30 NET team or

Neutral-site game against a top 50 NET team or

Road game against a top 75 NET team.

I think Saint Mary's is currently at 37 in NET, so SDSU's neutral site game against them is Quad 1.  CSU's home win won't be Quad 1 unless SMU ascends to the NET top 30.

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Props to the pokes for getting their shit together and making a run with Maldonado & Co. Between you guys, the donks, and (maybe?) CSU, its shaping up to be an interesting, albeit interrupted, season.

I'm thinking 3 in the NCAAT and 3 in the NIT.  Not a bad year at all.  I expect Boise to lose this game to USU and get beat down by SDSU the game after.  Too many games in too few days with too much travel and a too short bench.  

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8 hours ago, Aztec1984 said:

The St Mary's game was at a neutral site in Phoenix.

Ah ok. I feel like there needs to be a better way to list a game if it's at a neutral site. I'm not smart enough to know what that is, but it's annoying to read SDSU vs St. Mary's and CSU vs St. Mary's and they're technically different.

 

 

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1 hour ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I'm thinking 3 in the NCAAT and 3 in the NIT.  Not a bad year at all.  I expect Boise to lose this game to USU and get beat down by SDSU the game after.  Too many games in too few days with too much travel and a too short bench.  

Yeah, we're fortunate to get you guys coming in on the backend of a span of three games in five days, but we'll be in the same boat five days later when we visit Vanilla Ice Cream Heaven USU next Wednesday.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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Avoid the bad losses and the MW will get 3.  Simple as that 

And, in the process, a 3-4 bid MWC could mean a 1 bid AAC.

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8 minutes ago, jdgaucho said:

Avoid the bad losses and the MW will get 3.  Simple as that 

And, in the process, a 3-4 bid MWC could mean a 1 bid AAC.

From here on out win your home games and only lose on the road to the quad 1's and it could easily be 3 to the Dance. 

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If Fresno wins their next couple games there are going to be 5 legit at-large candidates in the MWC. I still think it is almost a guarantee that we will get 3 NCAAT bids and about 50/50 that we get four. We've got a better shot at getting 4 in than the WCC IMO.

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11 minutes ago, KingBronco said:

We've got a better shot at getting 4 in than the WCC IMO.

Interesting hypothesis.  Let's compare based on current resumes:

Top 5 by NET in MWC:

  • 28 - Wyoming - Quad 1 wins include at 71 Utah State - OOC SOS of 328
  • 32 - Colorado State - Quad 1 wins include neutral site vs 49 Mississippi State - OOC SOS of 49
  • 42 - San Diego State - Quad 1 wins include neutral site vs 35 Saint Mary's  - OOC SOS of 121
  • 48 - Boise State - Quad 1 wins include at 61 Washington State, at 71 Utah State  - OOC SOS of 139
  • 56 - Fresno State - Quad 1 wins include nothing; best win is vs 71 Utah State  - OOC SOS of 251

Top 5 by NET in WCC:

  • 2 - Gonzaga - Quad 1 wins include vs 18 Texas, neutral site vs 20 UCLA, neutral site vs 14 Texas Tech, vs 27 BYU  - OOC SOS of 279
  • 27 - BYU - Quad 1 wins include at 70 Missouri State, at 36 San Francisco  - OOC SOS of 9
  • 35 - Saint Mary's - Quad 1 wins include at 71 Utah State  - OOC SOS of 95
  • 36 - San Francisco - Quad 1 wins include neutral site vs 38 Davidson, neutral site vs 40 UAB  - OOC SOS of 143
  • 87 - Santa Clara - Quad 1 wins include nothing; best win is neutral vs 59 TCU  - OOC SOS of 352

Of these ten teams, none have Quad 3 losses and only one has a Quad 4 loss (Boise State).  Past committees have placed a lot of value in winning games against high-end opponents, thus demonstrating the potential to perform well in the tournament.  They have also rewarded strong non-conference scheduling.  Racking up wins doesn't impress them much if the competition is primarily Q3 and Q4.

My current ranking of likeliness of being invited to the tournament would look something like this:

  • Gonzaga (obviously) - won vs BYU, vs San Francisco, at Santa Clara
  • BYU - won at San Francisco, vs San Diego State, vs Saint Mary's
  • San Diego State - won neutral site vs Saint Mary's, vs Colorado State
  • Colorado State - Won vs Saint Mary's
  • San Francisco - won vs Fresno State
  • Boise State - Won vs Fresno State, vs Santa Clara
  • Saint Mary's - Won vs Santa Clara
  • Wyoming
  • Fresno State - Won vs Santa Clara
  • Santa Clara

Gonzaga is obviously first and I put BYU second on the strength of their wins over SDSU, SFU, and SMU.  San Diego State is ahead of Colorado State primarily because of the beat down they delivered to the Rams.

I originally had San Francisco above SDSU and CSU since they have more Q1 wins than either, but I moved them down because they also have more losses than either as well as a worse OOC SOS.

There could be an argument to place Saint Mary's over Boise because all of SMU's four losses are in Quad 1 games while Boise has lost three Quad 2 games as well as a Quad 4 game.  Saint Mary's also faced a slightly tougher OOC schedule.  I gave the nod to Boise State on the strength of their 2 Quad 1 wins (both beat Utah State, but Boise also beat Washington State).

Comparing Saint Mary's to Wyoming, they both have at Utah State as their best win. Both have 3 Quad 2 wins.  I think Saint Mary's stronger non-conference schedule (95 vs 328) would put them in over Wyoming in the committee's eyes.

Fresno has no Quad 1 wins yet and has more losses than Wyoming, so I can't rank them any higher.  Fresno State beat Santa Clara at a neutral site, so I don't see any argument to put Santa Clara higher.

If the selection were today, I think my top 5 above would be in and the next three would be on the bubble.  Fresno and Santa Clara would be out.

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I just went and looked at Lunardi's bracket as of today, and I feel somewhat justified in my rankings:

  • 1-seed (AQ) - Gonzaga
  • 8-seed - BYU
  • 9-seed - San Diego State
  • 9-seed - Colorado State
  • 11-seed - San Francisco
  • 11-seed - Saint Mary's
  • 12-seed (AQ) - Boise State
  • Next four out - Wyoming

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-projecting-2022-march-madness-men-field

Lunardi puts the first-place team in each conference in the bracket as the automatic qualifier for the conference.  Since Boise State currently leads the MW standings, they are currently in as the AQ for the MW.  He has them slated as a 12-seed, which means he might have had them on the outside looking in if not for that AQ designation.

So based on results so far, Lunardi thinks it's more likely for the WCC to get four teams than for the MWC to get three teams.

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And here's what the Bracket Matrix says:

  • 1-seed - Gonzaga
  • 8-seed - BYU
  • 8-seed - Colorado State
  • 9-seed - San Diego State
  • 9-seed - San Francisco
  • 11-seed - Saint Mary's

Excluded from bracket:

  • Wyoming - listed on 42 brackets - average seed of 10.62
  • Boise State - listed on 28 brackets - average seed of 11.46
  • Fresno State - listed on 3 brackets - average seed of 11.67
  • Utah State - listed on 1 bracket - average seed of 10.00

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

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1 hour ago, Pelado said:

So based on results so far, Lunardi thinks it's more likely for the WCC to get four teams than for the MWC to get three teams.

You are right for now. But I doubt WCC gets four because Zags are going to sweep everybody. I doubt MWC gets 4, but way way easier for one of the 3-7 conference seeds to get the tournament autobid.

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