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tailingpermit

Boise State @ San Diego State

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Going to be a good game. We have no offense or at best Sub-Par, and D will bring it.

Like our chances and glad we are the betting Dogs in this one, always helps as we play up and down to our competition.

Some idiot on AztecMessa mentioned Sears playing- any truth?

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10 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I agree our WR's should have an edge against their man however I just can not see us protecting Hank against  the SDSU pass rush...

I think you guys will be fine.  Our DC has decided the last few games to just rush 3 almost every play.  Gone are the pressures and simulated pressure that Rocky uses.  Bach will have time to find receivers.  Plus your OL just went up against our defense last weekend so will have essentially two weeks to prepare.  It'll be easier for them because we won't blitz nearly as much as Rocky did.

Your defense has gotten better as the season has gone on and our offense is not particularly hard to stop - very predictable - 85% of runs are inside zone, 10% are counters, and 5% outside zone.  Bring everyone  into the box because 97% of our completions are within 10 yards of the LOS.   

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On 11/20/2021 at 10:53 PM, SDSUfan said:

I'll be there. Breakfast burritos in lot 11 @ 8:00.

THEN:

Aztec hoops at the Honda Center in the evening

Sounds like my agenda. It will be hard to stay sober for the basketball game if the football team wins.

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54 minutes ago, Fowl said:

I think you guys will be fine.  Our DC has decided the last few games to just rush 3 almost every play.  Gone are the pressures and simulated pressure that Rocky uses.  Bach will have time to find receivers.  Plus your OL just went up against our defense last weekend so will have essentially two weeks to prepare.  It'll be easier for them because we won't blitz nearly as much as Rocky did.

Your defense has gotten better as the season has gone on and our offense is not particularly hard to stop - very predictable - 85% of runs are inside zone, 10% are counters, and 5% outside zone.  Bring everyone  into the box because 97% of our completions are within 10 yards of the LOS.   

You must be a blast at parties.

I mean, I'm generally a glass half empty type of guy. But you put me to shame 

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6 minutes ago, Fowl said:

Just being a realist.  There's a reason Boise is favored.

favored on the betting line?

Boise is better on offense and generating T/Os, SDSU is probably the better run defense and special teams. If Boise can't completely shut the run down it will probably come down to who wins t/o battle imo. If Boise shuts the run down and we don't pass effectively(which is likely) it may be over by half time. So I guess you could say slightly favoring Boise makes sense, but hard to know until they play. Friday can't get here soon enough.

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Most games are decided by the turnover ratio.  A few years ago I went back over the prior 20 years and looked at every FBS game.  IIRC the team that won turnovers won almost 90% of the time.  It's probably even stronger for SDSU.  Hence the reason why Rocky and Hoke play it conservative on offense.

So yeah whoever wins the TO battle will likely win this game.  The problem for SDSU is as I mentioned previously they have been playing very conservatively on defense lately only rushing 3-4 on most plays which likely won't induce Bach to throw int's which is what I think we'll need to win the game.

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3 minutes ago, Fowl said:

Most games are decided by the turnover ratio.  A few years ago I went back over the prior 20 years and looked at every FBS game.  IIRC the team that won turnovers won almost 90% of the time.  It's probably even stronger for SDSU.  Hence the reason why Rocky and Hoke play it conservative on offense.

So yeah whoever wins the TO battle will likely win this game.  The problem for SDSU is as I mentioned previously they have been playing very conservatively on defense lately only rushing 3-4 on most plays which likely won't induce Bach to throw int's which is what I think we'll need to win the game.

I think the issue is that we rely on passing game to keep teams honest, but we're not great and our QBs dont have great arms. Thats why a team with real athletes in the secondary can blow up our entire game plan like Fresno did. Either they dont let us pass effectively or come up with just 2 t/o's and we're toast. Not sure how good Boise's DB's are but I know they recruit well and will probably be some of the best we face this year (I assume). The thing that gives me some confidence is their result against AFA and Wyo...

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34 minutes ago, Fowl said:

Just being a realist.  There's a reason Boise is favored.

This comment will sound ridiculous to anyone who hasn't followed SDSU carefully this year but nothing gave me more hope for our offense than seeing Johnson hit Matthews in stride on a slant for our last crucial TD against UNLV.

How many such completions had we had this year? Half a dozen? Three? None? I'm positive the number of times Brookshire hit a receiver in stride on a slant was absolute zero. And with Johnson at QB, Matthews, our most reliable WR, has now again become part of the offense rather than being wasted as he was the first half of the year. It also appears that Kothe is finally completely healthy and he's our next most reliable WR.

The sportsbooks say Boise will win 23.5 to 21 and I think our offense has improved enough that their putting 3 TDs on the board is very realistic. My concern, however, is the defense. I don't know which came first, the chicken or the egg, but a combination of our lack of aggressiveness and struggling young CBs allowed UNLV's Rogers to sit back in the pocket for much too long and burn us through the air. Better get that shyte fixed quick or there's no way we hold Boise to just 24 points.

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I've watched 5 BoyZee games this year. They are a Batshit nutx as my kids Mom-totally a Bi-Polar program this year.

Even with our absurd excuse of an offense (thanks Hellstinkie!) we will beat them.

Graduates leaving FresTuckie and driving the Big Rig to the Blue!

 

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49 minutes ago, Fowl said:

Most games are decided by the turnover ratio.  A few years ago I went back over the prior 20 years and looked at every FBS game.  IIRC the team that won turnovers won almost 90% of the time.  It's probably even stronger for SDSU.  Hence the reason why Rocky and Hoke play it conservative on offense.

So yeah whoever wins the TO battle will likely win this game.  The problem for SDSU is as I mentioned previously they have been playing very conservatively on defense lately only rushing 3-4 on most plays which likely won't induce Bach to throw int's which is what I think we'll need to win the game.

Crazy that as strong as the MWC is this year, only 4 teams have a positive TO ratio and only two are averaging +1 a game.

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2 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

SDSU is 10-1 and ranked in the Top 25. Boise State is 6-4 and not even mentioned. The game is a home game for the Aztecs yet the betting line favors Boise State. How can that be? 

cuz the tater is hot....4 consecutive wins, including taking down ranked FresNO on the road. Watch out SUDS here comes the SPUDS :)

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