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MWC Contenders from Pretenders! (Updated pt5)

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WESTERN DIVISION

 

San Diego St --- Contender

In the pilot's seat for the division crown. The picture gets clearer for SD St. after their Air Force win. DEFENSE wins championships. Their opponents now have a 1-7  1-8  13-22 combined record, yikes. Fresno St. up next. Will defense win this one, if so, SD St takes Fresno out of contender status. Probably the hardest remaining schedule in Boise St., Fresno St, and Nevada. All home games. Can you say 0-3 against those teams? I don't think so. I'd be more worried about the @Hawaii game.

 Fresno St. --- Contender

Currently In the co-pilots seat. Shutting out an impotent Wyoming offense says nothing.  But you still beat out New Mexico who only allowed 3 points to them. Strong vs Haener II.  Did Strong go 4-0 against this Fresno St. team? Nope didn't happen. Winner of that game (Fresno St.)  takes the division....sorry San Diego St. I don't see it in your offense to win it. 

Nevada --- Contender

Still in the Navigators seat for the division crown. Tuff games vs @San Diego St. and Air Force remains. Even if they win out their remaining schedule they still need Fresno St. to lose. UNLV up next. Umm - could get interesting. 

Hawaii --- Pretender

In the Head Flight Attendant seat. Another bye week victory for Hawaii over New Mexico St. Needs to win out to win the division crown and still may not end up in first. A lot needs to happen for Hawaii for them to win the crown, to include a couple upsets. Not going to happen. The best they can do is to play the spoilers role with wins over San Diego St and Utah St. Still got San Diego St on the docket. Probably the easiest remaining schedule left of divisional foes. 

San Jose St. --- Pretender

In the Flight Attendant seat. All but eliminated from the divisional title. A lot needs to happen for them also. Have @Nevada and Fresno St remaining. Not going to happen. Now becomes Hawaii's best friend. Ahhh, maybe not!

UNLV --- Eliminated 

In the passenger seat, just along for the ride. But beware, they are going to F up someone chances of winning the division. Nevada, San Diego St and Air Force are not looking forward to their games with you. Whose championship are you going to ruin this year? My money is on all 3.  Hahaha. 

 

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

Utah St. --- Contender

In the pilots seat for now. Only because they have the softest MWC schedule ever. you Aggies fans have been telling me this for weeks. I now believe you. Could very well win out and be crowned the worst team to ever win a MWC divisional title. Could even lose one of their remaining games and still win the division. Win over Hawaii and I will crown you Mountain Division Champs. Congrats on your MWC Mountain Division Championship!

Boise St. --- Pretender

In the Navigators seat. All but eliminated from the division crown but with the best chance to catch Utah St. with a win over them. Still got Fresno St. and San Diego St. on the road. Could really throw a wrench into the Western Division final standing. Maybe next year!

Air Force --- Pretender

In the Navigators seat. All but eliminated from the Mountain crown. Needs Utah St. to lose 2 of their 4 remaining MWC games. Not going to happen. Nice season Air Force, you're done. Beat Army! You can do Hawaii a favor and beat Nevada also. Maybe next year!

Colorado St --- Pretender

In the passenger seat right now. The hardest remaining MWC schedule remaining with Boise St, Air Force and Nevada, all at home. One loss and you're out. Maybe next year!

New Mexico --- Eliminated

1-2-3 losses and you're out. Maybe next year. 

Wyming --- Eliminated

No I didn't forget the "o" in Wyming, they have none! Maybe next year. 

 

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SDSU’s D1 opponents have a combined record of 18-28(39% win pct). Not including AFA in there huh? Not great, but at least it’s accurate. 

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None of the Mountain Division teams are contenders right now. Utah State might be the worst team to go to the championship game, but this team would have to compete with the last time they went by playing a weak ass schedule. That 6-6 Fresno squad was better than both of those USU iterations. The divisions need to go. 

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13 hours ago, Spot50B said:

None of the Mountain Division teams are contenders right now. Utah State might be the worst team to go to the championship game, but this team would have to compete with the last time they went by playing a weak ass schedule. That 6-6 Fresno squad was better than both of those USU iterations. The divisions need to go. 

YOu realize that Boise plays the same weak schedule you talk of 2 of every 4 years.  I do agree about removing the divisions.  Even with removing the divisions their will always be scheduling inconsistencies.  It is also no guarantee a team will be good or bad when you play them as things fluctuate from year to year.

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1 minute ago, Aggie84025 said:

YOu realize that Boise plays the same weak schedule you talk of 2 of every 4 years.  I do agree about removing the divisions.  Even with removing the divisions their will always be scheduling inconsistencies.  It is also no guarantee a team will be good or bad when you play them as things fluctuate from year to year.

Of course I do, however Boise has competed for the Mountain Division crown every year, regardless of schedule until this year. The year that USU went to the championship game, they lost badly to Boise State at home. Utah State is only competitive when its schedule is watered down and are somewhere around the 4th-6th best team in the conference right now. Some combination of UNR, Fresno and SDSU should be playing in the championship game.

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13 hours ago, Spot50B said:

None of the Mountain Division teams are contenders right now. Utah State might be the worst team to go to the championship game, but this team would have to compete with the last time they went by playing a weak ass schedule. That 6-6 Fresno squad was better than both of those USU iterations. The divisions need to go. 

Not going to disagree but it is all cyclical and there are no guarantees who the top teams are going to be years in advance. Do we need to go back in time and complain about the West Div. Champ for what seems like since the start of the current conference membership? It's not the West Div. champs fault that their division has largely sucked outside of 1 or 2 teams in any given year while the Mountain has traditionally been a bloodfest. As mentioned above, eliminating divisions will still result in unbalanced schedules.

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4 minutes ago, Spot50B said:

Of course I do, however Boise has competed for the Mountain Division crown every year, regardless of schedule until this year. The year that USU went to the championship game, they lost badly to Boise State at home. Utah State is only competitive when its schedule is watered down and are somewhere around the 4th-6th best team in the conference right now. Some combination of UNR, Fresno and SDSU should be playing in the championship game.

?? Utah state has the third highest winning percentage in the conference under current MWC membership behind BSU and SDSU. They have also been to 6 bowls in that time, with again only BSU and SDSU having been to more with 7 bowls each since 2013. Over those nine years the Mountain Div. has come down to the winner of BSU vs USU more times than not. Wouldn't it stand to reason then that if BSU is having a down year that USU would likely be one of the candidates to win the division? 

For the record, I would also rank USU in the 4th or 5th spot among all MWC teams but there have been years where the top 4 teams in the league have been from the Mountain Div. too.

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1 minute ago, TrueAg said:

Not going to disagree but it is all cyclical and there are no guarantees who the top teams are going to be years in advance. Do we need to go back in time and complain about the West Div. Champ for what seems like since the start of the current conference membership? It's not the West Div. champs fault that their division has largely sucked outside of 1 or 2 teams in any given year while the Mountain has traditionally been a bloodfest. As mentioned above, eliminating divisions will still result in unbalanced schedules.

If you keep divisions then only those games against division opponents should count towards determining who plays in the CCG.

If you get rid of divisions, then final record of all conference games determines #1 and #2. The schedule would also change as there would be no reason to play the same five teams every year (would most likely have protected rivalries though). Yes, the schedules will still be unbalanced in this situation but it would be more beneficial to the conference as we transition towards a larger playoff.  Regardless, if you were to line up the raw results since the championship game began (and add in appropriate tiebreakers), the top two teams are more likely to rise to the top.

 

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8 minutes ago, TrueAg said:

?? Utah state has the third highest winning percentage in the conference under current MWC membership behind BSU and SDSU. They have also been to 6 bowls in that time, with again only BSU and SDSU having been to more with 7 bowls each since 2013. Over those nine years the Mountain Div. has come down to the winner of BSU vs USU more times than not. Wouldn't it stand to reason then that if BSU is having a down year that USU would likely be one of the candidates to win the division? 

For the record, I would also rank USU in the 4th or 5th spot among all MWC teams but there have been years where the top 4 teams in the league have been from the Mountain Div. too.

There has been one year, 2019, where the top teams were all in the Mountain Division. One could also argue that 2014 was the same way based upon record but in that year, I'd argue that SDSU and Fresno were right there with Colorado State for the second best team in the conference (and certainly one of them was third best at least).

The West Division has been superior to the Mountain overall and Boise State and Utah State have benefitted from that. Avoiding Nevada, SDSU and Fresno in the same season is huge. Utah State has been good at beating the lesser teams in the conference but the Aggies record against teams that finish the season with a winning record is not good, I suspect. Divisions are a problem. No one outside of hard core USU fans think Utah State has been the third best team in the conference under current membership. They are somewhere in the middle.

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14 hours ago, Spot50B said:

None of the Mountain Division teams are contenders right now. Utah State might be the worst team to go to the championship game, but this team would have to compete with the last time they went by playing a weak ass schedule. That 6-6 Fresno squad was better than both of those USU iterations. The divisions need to go. 

Fresno 2014 was weaker than any team the mountain division could field. 

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12 minutes ago, JADogs05 said:

Fresno 2014 was weaker than any team the mountain division could field. 

They scared the bejeebus out of Boise on the blue because Waller went apeshit, but he was dinged up pretty badly for the Championship rematch.

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Just now, Rofl_copter_dos said:

They scared the bejeebus out of Boise on the blue because Waller went apeshit, but he was dinged up pretty badly for the Championship rematch.

Wasn't that the game where we somehow outgained Boise by 100 yards but lost because Schramm mind****ed our own QB? 

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1 minute ago, JADogs05 said:

Wasn't that the game where we somehow outgained Boise by 100 yards but lost because Schramm mind****ed our own QB? 

no, they ran out of juice after three quarters.  Had it tied 27-27 with like 7 minutes to go and just couldn't get any further.

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8 minutes ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

no, they ran out of juice after three quarters.  Had it tied 27-27 with like 7 minutes to go and just couldn't get any further.

You're right.  I think I was thinking of the championship game. 

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5 minutes ago, JADogs05 said:

You're right.  I think I was thinking of the championship game. 

oh yeah i blacked that one out of my mind.   Imagine if we had Waller at 100%...could have been a big embarrassment for the conference lmao 

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Utah St, Wyming, Colorado St and New Mexico has always been crappy teams in my mind. 
 

While the Western division has always been competitive with all except UNLV. 

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I say we go to a WAC vs MWC division alignment. 
 

WAC

1. Boise St.

2. Fresno St

3. Hawaii

4. Nevada

5. Utah St.

6. San Jose St.

MWC

1. San Diego St.

2. Air Force

3. Colorado St.

4. New Mexico

5. Wyming 

6. UNLV

 

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22 hours ago, Warbow said:

Boise St. --- Pretender

In the Navigators seat. All but eliminated from the division crown but with the best chance to catch Utah St. with a win over them. Still got Fresno St. and San Diego St. on the road. Could really throw a wrench into the Western Division final standing. Maybe next year!

With the talent Boise has returning, plus what is sure to be the best recruiting class once again...Preseason Championship is almost guaranteed!

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2 hours ago, TrueAg said:

Not going to disagree but it is all cyclical and there are no guarantees who the top teams are going to be years in advance. Do we need to go back in time and complain about the West Div. Champ for what seems like since the start of the current conference membership? It's not the West Div. champs fault that their division has largely sucked outside of 1 or 2 teams in any given year while the Mountain has traditionally been a bloodfest. As mentioned above, eliminating divisions will still result in unbalanced schedules.

Cyclical to a point. However, Boise State excepted, SDSU, UNR and Fresno have been consistently out-recruiting the Mountain division schools over the last few years and UNLV and SJSU's recruiting have improved significantly under Arroyo and Brennan.

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4 hours ago, Spot50B said:

There has been one year, 2019, where the top teams were all in the Mountain Division. One could also argue that 2014 was the same way based upon record but in that year, I'd argue that SDSU and Fresno were right there with Colorado State for the second best team in the conference (and certainly one of them was third best at least).

The West Division has been superior to the Mountain overall and Boise State and Utah State have benefitted from that. Avoiding Nevada, SDSU and Fresno in the same season is huge. Utah State has been good at beating the lesser teams in the conference but the Aggies record against teams that finish the season with a winning record is not good, I suspect. Divisions are a problem. No one outside of hard core USU fans think Utah State has been the third best team in the conference under current membership. They are somewhere in the middle.

By what metric? If you choose to discount league records, what do you replace them with?

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