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Warbow

MWC Contenders from Pretenders! (Updated pt5)

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3 minutes ago, USU78 said:

By what metric? If you choose to discount league records, what do you replace them with?

Strength of record is a more reliable metric. All the teams play each other in their division. They only play cross conference 50% of the time.

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7 minutes ago, USU78 said:

By what metric? If you choose to discount league records, what do you replace them with?

i dunno, S&P+ but it's not very good for sustained g5 measurement because of how often we cycle through coaches. 

 

But he's not wrong....the aggies will probably walk into the conference championship game at a clean 10-2 and get bent over by whatever team survives the fresno/nevada/sdsu round robin.

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3 hours ago, Spot50B said:

There has been one year, 2019, where the top teams were all in the Mountain Division. One could also argue that 2014 was the same way based upon record but in that year, I'd argue that SDSU and Fresno were right there with Colorado State for the second best team in the conference (and certainly one of them was third best at least).

The West Division has been superior to the Mountain overall and Boise State and Utah State have benefitted from that. Avoiding Nevada, SDSU and Fresno in the same season is huge. Utah State has been good at beating the lesser teams in the conference but the Aggies record against teams that finish the season with a winning record is not good, I suspect. Divisions are a problem. No one outside of hard core USU fans think Utah State has been the third best team in the conference under current membership. They are somewhere in the middle.

Don't let facts get in your way. The head-to-head between divisions:

    Mountain       vs.                West
Wins 2013 7   11
  2014 13   5
  2015 13   5
  2016 14   4
  2017 11   7
  2018 9   9
  2019 13   5
  2020 4   10

 

Outside of an odd Covid 2020 year it really hasn't been much of a question as to which division is superior.

As for whether USU is deemed the 3rd best program in the conference or not, I'm only stating the facts according to results on the field. If success is not measured by wins and losses but rather the opinion of fellow MWC fans then I guess only hard core USU fans will hold on to silly truths. Avoiding Nevada, SDSU, and Fresno St. is not really a thing. Fresno (0.533%) and Nevada (0.510%) are barely .500 teams under current membership and FYI, the last time USU faced these three in 2019 they went 3-0 with 2 of those wins on the road (SDSU & Fresno St.). 

 

2 hours ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Cyclical to a point. However, Boise State excepted, SDSU, UNR and Fresno have been consistently out-recruiting the Mountain division schools over the last few years and UNLV and SJSU's recruiting have improved significantly under Arroyo and Brennan.

Yes, let's go to high school recruiting rankings now. We've heard this since joining the league nine seasons ago. These rankings mean almost zero. They are completely biased and are largely based on the number of recruits over the quality. Go look at NFL draft results or current players in the league if you want to see which college programs are really recruiting or developing talent.

Next we can rehash market size or some other factor that doesn't necessarily leads to success.

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10 minutes ago, TrueAg said:

Don't let facts get in your way. The head-to-head between divisions:

    Mountain       vs.                West
Wins 2013 7   11
  2014 13   5
  2015 13   5
  2016 14   4
  2017 11   7
  2018 9   9
  2019 13   5
  2020 4   10

 

Outside of an odd Covid 2020 year it really hasn't been much of a question as to which division is superior.

As for whether USU is deemed the 3rd best program in the conference or not, I'm only stating the facts according to results on the field. If success is not measured by wins and losses but rather the opinion of fellow MWC fans then I guess only hard core USU fans will hold on to silly truths. Avoiding Nevada, SDSU, and Fresno St. is not really a thing. Fresno (0.533%) and Nevada (0.510%) are barely .500 teams under current membership and FYI, the last time USU faced these three in 2019 they went 3-0 with 2 of those wins on the road (SDSU & Fresno St.). 

 

Yes, let's go to high school recruiting rankings now. We've heard this since joining the league nine seasons ago. These rankings mean almost zero. They are completely biased and are largely based on the number of recruits over the quality. Go look at NFL draft results or current players in the league if you want to see which college programs are really recruiting or developing talent.

Next we can rehash market size or some other factor that doesn't necessarily leads to success.

You stated that there were seasons where the top 4 teams came from the Mountain Division. That was your fact. I replied that one, possibly two seasons met that criterion. Then I stated my opinion that the West is the better division. I still think I'm right about that. I think lots of people on this board will agree.

You conveniently forgot to include Utah State's record against the good teams in the conference.

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18 minutes ago, TrueAg said:

Don't let facts get in your way. The head-to-head between divisions:

    Mountain       vs.                West
Wins 2013 7   11
  2014 13   5
  2015 13   5
  2016 14   4
  2017 11   7
  2018 9   9
  2019 13   5
  2020 4   10

 

Outside of an odd Covid 2020 year it really hasn't been much of a question as to which division is superior.

As for whether USU is deemed the 3rd best program in the conference or not, I'm only stating the facts according to results on the field. If success is not measured by wins and losses but rather the opinion of fellow MWC fans then I guess only hard core USU fans will hold on to silly truths. Avoiding Nevada, SDSU, and Fresno St. is not really a thing. Fresno (0.533%) and Nevada (0.510%) are barely .500 teams under current membership and FYI, the last time USU faced these three in 2019 they went 3-0 with 2 of those wins on the road (SDSU & Fresno St.). 

 

Yes, let's go to high school recruiting rankings now. We've heard this since joining the league nine seasons ago. These rankings mean almost zero. They are completely biased and are largely based on the number of recruits over the quality. Go look at NFL draft results or current players in the league if you want to see which college programs are really recruiting or developing talent.

Next we can rehash market size or some other factor that doesn't necessarily leads to success.

True Ag throwing down the stats, I like it.

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50 minutes ago, Spot50B said:

Strength of record is a more reliable metric. All the teams play each other in their division. They only play cross conference 50% of the time.

Ad hoc, friend.

You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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1 minute ago, USU78 said:

Ad hoc, friend.

This is a sport where one team doesn't play 90% of the other teams during a season, friend. It's all about what ifs. Do you think Boise State has been better than Alabama during the past 21 years?  Boise State has the better record.

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5 minutes ago, Spot50B said:

You stated that there were seasons where the top 4 teams came from the Mountain Division. That was your fact. I replied that one, possibly two seasons met that criterion. Then I stated my opinion that the West is the better division. I still think I'm right about that. I think lots of people on this board will agree.

You conveniently forgot to include Utah State's record against the good teams in the conference.

How do I forget something that I have no criteria for? What is your measuring stick for a "good team in the conference"? You still believe the West is the better division despite the numbers overwhelmingly saying the opposite. If you are talking about this season then you're probably right but you said overall. You just stated that not playing SDSU, Frenso St. and Nevada is a huge advantage. I just showed you that Fresno St. and Nevada are slightly over .500 teams over the course of the past nine years...do they meet your criteria of good teams?

Obviously the teams with the most wins are the ones that consistently beat the other teams in the conference. If USU has the third highest overall winning % since 2013, then are they only judged by how well they did against BSU and SDSU since they are #1 and #2 in Win% over that same time? Is everyone with less wins than USU a poor team? Where are you drawing this line?

Historically, 3 of the bottom 4 teams in the conference (UNLV, SJSU, Hawaii) are in one division and 3 of the top 4 teams in the conference (BSU, USU, AFA) are in the other division and that has proven to be the difference.

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51 minutes ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

i dunno, S&P+ but it's not very good for sustained g5 measurement because of how often we cycle through coaches. 

 

But he's not wrong....the aggies will probably walk into the conference championship game at a clean 10-2 and get bent over by whatever team survives the fresno/nevada/sdsu round robin.

The same argument got made in 2013, the first year in this league. Yet the Ags lost to heavily favored Fresno by 7. Hardly being rolled.

This year's Aggie bunch punches above its weight class. Has all season. Capable of being beaten by and beating everyone on the schedule not named Boazy. Who knows what these idiots would do against whoever comes out on top in the west?

You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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1 minute ago, Spot50B said:

This is a sport where one team doesn't play 90% of the other teams during a season, friend. It's all about what ifs. Do you think Boise State has been better than Alabama during the past 21 years?  Boise State has the better record.

Apples and Oranges... We're talking about a collection of teams that play in the same conference and share similar schedules over the course of nearly a decade, not comparing two teams with completely different slates every year.

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3 minutes ago, Spot50B said:

This is a sport where one team doesn't play 90% of the other teams during a season, friend. It's all about what ifs. Do you think Boise State has been better than Alabama during the past 21 years?  Boise State has the better record.

This makes no sense. Fresno either plays USU or at very least three or more teams that play USU every season. That's worlds different from a once in a lifetime game against an SEC top dweller. Raisins to hex wrenches.

You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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3 minutes ago, USU78 said:

The same argument got made in 2013, the first year in this league. Yet the Ags lost to heavily favored Fresno by 7. Hardly being rolled.

This year's Aggie bunch punches above its weight class. Has all season. Capable of being beaten by and beating everyone on the schedule not named Boazy. Who knows what these idiots would do against whoever comes out on top in the west?

Not that I completely agree with the argument you’re responding to but the score doesn’t really tell the story of what happened in that game. Fresno state went up 17-0 then 24-7 and then pretty lackadaisically cruised towards the finish line. I think USU scored twice in the last quarter to make it look closer than the game really was. 

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1 minute ago, JADogs05 said:

Not that I completely agree with the argument you’re responding to but the score doesn’t really tell the story of what happened in that game. Fresno state went up 17-0 then 24-7 and then pretty lackadaisically cruised towards the finish line. I think USU scored twice in the last quarter to make it look closer than the game really was. 

Fair enough, yet USU should have beaten CSU last week by 10 or so, yet sat on the ball on offense and played prevent defense late. And CSU dang near won. How does one guage when a score does or doesn't reflect a "true" outcome? Such arguments take us into ad hoc country.

You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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23 minutes ago, USU78 said:

The same argument got made in 2013, the first year in this league. Yet the Ags lost to heavily favored Fresno by 7. Hardly being rolled.

This year's Aggie bunch punches above its weight class. Has all season. Capable of being beaten by and beating everyone on the schedule not named Boazy. Who knows what these idiots would do against whoever comes out on top in the west?

The score was 24-7 when Carr's shoulder was separated. 

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7 minutes ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

The score was 24-7 when Carr's shoulder was separated. 

Pounding quarterbacks is how the game is played. 

You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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46 minutes ago, TrueAg said:

How do I forget something that I have no criteria for? What is your measuring stick for a "good team in the conference"? You still believe the West is the better division despite the numbers overwhelmingly saying the opposite. If you are talking about this season then you're probably right but you said overall. You just stated that not playing SDSU, Frenso St. and Nevada is a huge advantage. I just showed you that Fresno St. and Nevada are slightly over .500 teams over the course of the past nine years...do they meet your criteria of good teams?

Obviously the teams with the most wins are the ones that consistently beat the other teams in the conference. If USU has the third highest overall winning % since 2013, then are they only judged by how well they did against BSU and SDSU since they are #1 and #2 in Win% over that same time? Is everyone with less wins than USU a poor team? Where are you drawing this line?

Historically, 3 of the bottom 4 teams in the conference (UNLV, SJSU, Hawaii) are in one division and 3 of the top 4 teams in the conference (BSU, USU, AFA) are in the other division and that has proven to be the difference.

My criteria is 1. Strength of record. 2. Conference championships. 3. Record against power teams. 4. Record vs. all teams who finish the season with a winning record, including OOC.

Yep, there's overlap between #1 and #4 because it matters. How many times you beat New Mexico is meaningless. 

What's yours?

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2 hours ago, TrueAg said:

Don't let facts get in your way. The head-to-head between divisions:

    Mountain       vs.                West
Wins 2013 7   11
  2014 13   5
  2015 13   5
  2016 14   4
  2017 11   7
  2018 9   9
  2019 13   5
  2020 4   10

 

Outside of an odd Covid 2020 year it really hasn't been much of a question as to which division is superior.

As for whether USU is deemed the 3rd best program in the conference or not, I'm only stating the facts according to results on the field. If success is not measured by wins and losses but rather the opinion of fellow MWC fans then I guess only hard core USU fans will hold on to silly truths. Avoiding Nevada, SDSU, and Fresno St. is not really a thing. Fresno (0.533%) and Nevada (0.510%) are barely .500 teams under current membership and FYI, the last time USU faced these three in 2019 they went 3-0 with 2 of those wins on the road (SDSU & Fresno St.). 

 

Yes, let's go to high school recruiting rankings now. We've heard this since joining the league nine seasons ago. These rankings mean almost zero. They are completely biased and are largely based on the number of recruits over the quality. Go look at NFL draft results or current players in the league if you want to see which college programs are really recruiting or developing talent.

Next we can rehash market size or some other factor that doesn't necessarily leads to success.

Now let’s minus the Boise St wins.

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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1 hour ago, Aggie84025 said:

Yeah just pick and choose which metrics support your argument, that makes sense.

All I’m saying is Boise probably counts for 1/3 of those mountain wins.

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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13 minutes ago, Warbow said:

All I’m saying is Boise probably counts for 1/3 of those mountain wins.

How many of the West's wins are attributable to the SuckDoggies?

You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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