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Two articles in the NY times about the future of the Democrat party that I found very interesting. 

David Shor believes that the Democrats are in trouble and could be down to 43 seats in the senate by 2024

Second article is about the need for the Democrats to moderate and go after thew white working class voter, much the same way Bill Clinton did. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opinion/democrats-david-shor-education-polarization.html?smid=url-share

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/09/opinion/democrat-shor-politics-bill-clinton.html?smid=url-share

 

 

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1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

Two articles in the NY times about the future of the Democrat party that I found very interesting. 

David Shor believes that the Democrats are in trouble and could be down to 43 seats in the senate by 2024

Second article is about the need for the Democrats to moderate and go after thew white working class voter, much the same way Bill Clinton did. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opinion/democrats-david-shor-education-polarization.html?smid=url-share

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/09/opinion/democrat-shor-politics-bill-clinton.html?smid=url-share

 

 

I don’t think white working class voters give a shit about a “moderate” economic message. Now on cultural issues? Sure, I could see that helping.

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25 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I don’t think white working class voters give a shit about a “moderate” economic message. Now on cultural issues? Sure, I could see that helping.

Did you read the article about David Shole. He thinks the democrats are phucked even if they moderate their message. 

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1 hour ago, HR_Poke said:

Paywall

Cmon , I got the New York Times for a year for $3 a month. It goes up to 14 dollars a month after a year. Well worth it 

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Just now, bornontheblue said:

Cmon , I got the New York Times for a year for $3 a month. It goes up to 14 dollars a month after a year. Well worth it 

I'm a cheap SOB

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4 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

Did you read the article about David Shole. He thinks the democrats are phucked even if they moderate their message. 

Paywall. Anyway, the President’s party is typically always “phucked”in midterms. People have predicted the GOP will win the house since November 2020, so if it happens I’m just not seeing what that predictable result occurring tells us. 
 

And yea, I still don’t think any white working class voters actually give a shit about a “moderate” economic message. If his point is the Dems not “moderating” their economic message hurts them in any way, that’s great, but I disagree. If you think otherwise we can just agree to disagree. We are pretty clearly very far apart when it comes to economic issues, it is what it is.

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I think the only reason they have been saying that is GOP has been trimming the majority in the house to where its not really a majority anymore. But pretty much people do vote with their pocket books and right now for many that isn't looking that great but much will change by this time next year however.

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I don’t think it’s that simple. More moderate in House probably true for the most part, but definitely not all districts (see AOC). Senate another case but depends on state. ‘Moderate’ Sinema down 40 points in early primary poll in AZ.

 

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8 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I don’t think it’s that simple. More moderate in House probably true for the most part, but definitely not all districts (see AOC). Senate another case but depends on state. ‘Moderate’ Sinema down 40 points in early primary poll in AZ.

 

Arizona has had a bunch of Democrats moving in to take advantage of the years of Republican rule and prosperity. Unfortunately they are voting out the those policies and replacing them with the ones they ran away from. 
 

Having said that this is still a swing state and the Latino vote is moving right. If the Dems put out a progressive they will probably loss the seat in 2022. 

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9 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Paywall. Anyway, the President’s party is typically always “phucked”in midterms. People have predicted the GOP will win the house since November 2020, so if it happens I’m just not seeing what that predictable result occurring tells us. 
 

And yea, I still don’t think any white working class voters actually give a shit about a “moderate” economic message. If his point is the Dems not “moderating” their economic message hurts them in any way, that’s great, but I disagree. If you think otherwise we can just agree to disagree. We are pretty clearly very far apart when it comes to economic issues, it is what it is.

Since you won't read the article. I will summarize for you . 

Trends are not looking good for the Democrats in the senate or the electoral college for the following reasons. 

  • Voters with college degrees have flocked to the Democrat party , and White working class voters have flocked to the GOP. This is the opposite of what it used to be just a couple of decades ago.  Even Latino and Black working class voters are trending towards the GOP. There are still more voters without college degrees than with, so this benefits the GOP. 
  • Educated voters tend to concentrate in already blue states making them bluer. Working class voters are spread out across multiple states giving the GOP a long term advantage in the Senate, and the Electoral College. 
  • Ticket splitting is no longer a thing. States that reliably vote for the GOP in the presidential race will no longer vote for a Democrat senator. West Virginia is a rarity. Advantage to the GOP , because it will be very difficult for the Democrats to split the tickets in states like Montana, Iowa, the Dakotas, Nebraska etc. This was common in the 80's for example. 
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2 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

Since you won't read the article. I will summarize for you . 

Trends are not looking good for the Democrats in the senate or the electoral college for the following reasons. 

  • Voters with college degrees have flocked to the Democrat party , and White working class voters have flocked to the GOP. This is the opposite of what it used to be just a couple of decades ago.  Even Latino and Black working class voters are trending towards the GOP. There are still more voters without college degrees than with, so this benefits the GOP. 
  • Educated voters tend to concentrate in already blue states making them bluer. Working class voters are spread out across multiple states giving the GOP a long term advantage in the Senate, and the Electoral College. 
  • Ticket splitting is no longer a thing. States that reliably vote for the GOP in the presidential race will no longer vote for a Democrat senator. West Virginia is a rarity. Advantage to the GOP , because it will be very difficult for the Democrats to split the tickets in states like Montana, Iowa, the Dakotas, Nebraska etc. This was common in the 80's for example. 

I honestly never thought I would see the day when the Republicans became the party of white blue collar workers without a college education.  Weird shift.

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4 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

Since you won't read the article. I will summarize for you . 

Trends are not looking good for the Democrats in the senate or the electoral college for the following reasons. 

  • Voters with college degrees have flocked to the Democrat party , and White working class voters have flocked to the GOP. This is the opposite of what it used to be just a couple of decades ago.  Even Latino and Black working class voters are trending towards the GOP. There are still more voters without college degrees than with, so this benefits the GOP. 
  • Educated voters tend to concentrate in already blue states making them bluer. Working class voters are spread out across multiple states giving the GOP a long term advantage in the Senate, and the Electoral College. 
  • Ticket splitting is no longer a thing. States that reliably vote for the GOP in the presidential race will no longer vote for a Democrat senator. West Virginia is a rarity. Advantage to the GOP , because it will be very difficult for the Democrats to split the tickets in states like Montana, Iowa, the Dakotas, Nebraska etc. This was common in the 80's for example. 

I’m not going to sign up for a newspaper because of a message board debate. As far as the first and 3 points he made, I mean, ok. When it comes to the second point, I find the Senate and EC already undemocratic AF, so someone projecting they will become more undemocratic just makes me shrug my shoulders.
 

That being said, the first point and the second point in terms of the EC are a little hard to reconcile when you factor in Texas slowly getting bluer. When TX becomes a swing state then that blows up his EC analysis, because if Dems win TX they win the Presidency. It would take a LONG time to overcome the gerrymandering there and have Dems actually control their state legislature and House caucus; but they can’t gerrymander TX’s EC votes. Well not yet anyway, who knows what will happen if they are able to pass laws allowing their state legislature to overturn presidential and gubernatorial election results.

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2 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I’m not going to sign up for a newspaper because of a message board debate. As far as the first and 3 points he made, I mean, ok. When it comes to the second point, I find the Senate and EC already undemocratic AF, so someone projecting they will become more undemocratic just makes me shrug my shoulders.
 

That being said, the first point and the second point in terms of the EC are a little hard to reconcile when you factor in Texas slowly getting bluer. When TX becomes a swing state then that blows up his EC analysis, because if Dems win TX they win the Presidency. It would take a LONG time to overcome the gerrymandering there and have Dems actually control their state legislature and House caucus; but they can’t gerrymander TX’s EC votes. Well not yet anyway, who knows what will happen if they are able to pass laws allowing their state legislature to overturn presidential and gubernatorial election results.

Texas likely would have swung blue in 2020 except that the south Texas counties,  which are majority Hispanic working class voters, turned hard red. They only flipped one of those counties and severely shrunk the margins in the rest of the counties. This was more than enough to keep TX solidly red, and according to Shole is a trend that will continue. 

 

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16 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Paywall. Anyway, the President’s party is typically always “phucked”in midterms. People have predicted the GOP will win the house since November 2020, so if it happens I’m just not seeing what that predictable result occurring tells us. 
 

And yea, I still don’t think any white working class voters actually give a shit about a “moderate” economic message. If his point is the Dems not “moderating” their economic message hurts them in any way, that’s great, but I disagree. If you think otherwise we can just agree to disagree. We are pretty clearly very far apart when it comes to economic issues, it is what it is.

What exactly does "moderate" economics mean?  Shoveling tax cuts and privlege to the wealthy?  You cannot get more middle of the road boring economics than Biden.   The only reason paying for children and Healthcare seems crazy is because "moderate" rich people worship has been en vogue for 40 years. 

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Democrats are always going to have to come from behind because virtually all of the nonpartisan redistricting commissions are located in Democrat-leaning states. I'll leave it up to your imagination to determine how Republican-leaning states handle redistricting. 

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7 hours ago, robe said:

Arizona has had a bunch of Democrats moving in to take advantage of the years of Republican rule and prosperity. Unfortunately they are voting out the those policies and replacing them with the ones they ran away from. 
 

Having said that this is still a swing state and the Latino vote is moving right. If the Dems put out a progressive they will probably loss the seat in 2022. 

Is Mark Kelly a "progressive?"  These terms we throw around have little meaning anymore. "Conservative", " moderate", "progressive"  most of the people we label with them are nothing of the sort. 

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13 minutes ago, JADogs05 said:

Democrats are always going to have to come from behind because virtually all of the nonpartisan redistricting commissions are located in Democrat-leaning states. I'll leave it up to your imagination to determine how Republican-leaning states handle redistricting. 

There are 10 independent redistricting commissions with 4 of them in red states, and 1 in a swing state.  

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