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sactowndog

Manchin/Sinema Squeeze

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McConnell and Schumer acted together to reduce the pressure on Manchin/Sinema.   Now McConnell has no choice and Dem Progressives probably dislike Manchin and Sinema as much as any.

They are going to refuse to deal with the debt ceiling via reconciliation.  They will instead look to hang the default on the necks of the two Senators who refuse to reform the filibuster.   

So what do they do?  Does Manchin flip to the Repubs?   
 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/576461-mcconnell-gets-gop-wake-up-call

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5 hours ago, sactowndog said:

McConnell and Schumer acted together to reduce the pressure on Manchin/Sinema.   Now McConnell has no choice and Dem Progressives probably dislike Manchin and Sinema as much as any.

They are going to refuse to deal with the debt ceiling via reconciliation.  They will instead look to hang the default on the necks of the two Senators who refuse to reform the filibuster.   

So what do they do?  Does Manchin flip to the Repubs?   
 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/576461-mcconnell-gets-gop-wake-up-call

The one that really has some gall is Sinema.  She has basically said that she will only negotiate with the white house.  As if the president of the USA has nothing else to do but to cater to here every whim.  I am sure it makes her feel very important to ghost the president and not return his calls.  She doesn't feel it is necessary to tell her constituents or colleagues in the congress exactly what she wants as she prefers to have a direct audience with the president where she doesn't need to share the spotlight with any of the other 50 senators who could also hold this thing hostage.  To top it off Manchin and Sinema don't even agree with each other on what they are demanding as they both have completely different sets of demands.   Manchin at least seems to be trying to be up front and telling his list of demands and he is in a conservative state.   Ms. Green party "hide the ball" Sinema is a big problem. 

Biden has spent a lot of time being Mr. Nice guy.  Sometimes walking away from a negotiation is the best tactic.  Biden and Schumer just need to say they only have 48 votes so the two senators who have all the power need to figure out how they want to lead the debt negotiations and the reconciliation bill.  This will only work if Biden and the other 48 senators come out to say they would overturn the filibuster in order to avoid default.  If you do that either these two or the Republicans will break.  If not, the default will be hung around the Republican insurrectionist party.  If reconciliation is the only palatable path for these two senators, they better get working on a reconciliation bill pronto!

They are the only group that has the votes to get these things passed so they should lead.  You want the spotlight, YOU GOT IT! 

 

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The Democrats have 2 choices. Concede to both senators or the Republicans. No Republican will vote for the Bill. 
 

James Carville had a good opinion piece. Which I hope the Democrats don’t follow. Cut the bill down to 5 major gets and get the bill passed. Take the rest to the voters in 2022

The Masters 5k road race All American.

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1 hour ago, robe said:

The Democrats have 2 choices. Concede to both senators or the Republicans. No Republican will vote for the Bill. 
 

James Carville had a good opinion piece. Which I hope the Democrats don’t follow. Cut the bill down to 5 major gets and get the bill passed. Take the rest to the voters in 2022

It’s not the Dems problem.  It’s Manchin’s and Sinema’s problem.  
 

They will have to explain why if Bi-partisanship is so important the couldn’t get 10 Senators to vote to raise the debt ceiling.  Or why they put Senate procedure over the country defaulting and refused to reform (not eliminate) the filibuster.    

this time bomb is sitting at their feet and they better figure out what they are going to do.    It will be the Manchin/Sinema default.   

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This is the Reality the Moderate left has a 52-48 majority. The moderate right has a 51-49 majority. They answer to their Constituents. The Democrats are going to have cave. I would be shock to see Manchin budge.

the Democrats can get a little of what they want or nothing. 
 

2024 is your next chance 

The Masters 5k road race All American.

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57 minutes ago, robe said:

This is the Reality the Moderate left has a 52-48 majority. The moderate right has a 51-49 majority. They answer to their Constituents. The Democrats are going to have cave. I would be shock to see Manchin budge.

the Democrats can get a little of what they want or nothing. 
 

2024 is your next chance 

Manchin and Sinema aren't even on the same page for what they are demanding so that progressives even know specifically which programs they want to cut back.  Manchin wants Hyde Amendment, $1.5 Trillion price tag, etc., while Sinema wants no tax increases on the wealthy and no negotiation of drug prices.   Once you strip out all that stuff there is basically no bill left to support anyway.  Progressives cannot "settle" and pay the ransom until they have the list of demands.  

It isn't Democrats who threw a hissy fit because they wanted to force through that infrastructure bill.  Sinema wanted to preen how she could get a bi partisan bill done and she worked so nicely and constructively with those Republican senators.  When she is working with Democratic senators she won't even talk to them and forces the White House to kiss her ass so she feels "big time."

Sometimes in a negotiation the best thing to do is just to take a "strategic pause" and let the heat build up on the party blocking the deal.   That is what Manchin wanted to do, BTW.  They can explain why they can't get the votes and all this bipartisan cooperation when they actually are not just doing a Republican bill.    No wonder progressives insisted on a dual track.  If they would have passed that other bill they would have gotten ZERO....not a little of what they want....ZERO.  It is smart negotiating to keep that bill that Manchin and Sinema desperately want in their back pocket since they can pass it at any time.  

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11 minutes ago, Akkula said:

Manchin and Sinema aren't even on the same page for what they are demanding so that progressives even know specifically which programs they want to cut back.  Manchin wants Hyde Amendment, $1.5 Trillion price tag, etc., while Sinema wants no tax increases on the wealthy and no negotiation of drug prices.   Once you strip out all that stuff there is basically no bill left to support anyway.  Progressives cannot "settle" and pay the ransom until they have the list of demands.  

It isn't Democrats who threw a hissy fit because they wanted to force through that infrastructure bill.  Sinema wanted to preen how she could get a bi partisan bill done and she worked so nicely and constructively with those Republican senators.  When she is working with Democratic senators she won't even talk to them and forces the White House to kiss her ass so she feels "big time."

Sometimes in a negotiation the best thing to do is just to take a "strategic pause" and let the heat build up on the party blocking the deal.   That is what Manchin wanted to do, BTW.  They can explain why they can't get the votes and all this bipartisan cooperation when they actually are not just doing a Republican bill.    No wonder progressives insisted on a dual track.  If they would have passed that other bill they would have gotten ZERO....not a little of what they want....ZERO.  It is smart negotiating to keep that bill that Manchin and Sinema desperately want in their back pocket since they can pass it at any time.  

Too bad so sad. 

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Read some article that said Manchin and Sinema aren't even on the same page, so there's a good chance what they agree too won't pass the progressives in the house.  Essentially they killed the deal completely 

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43 minutes ago, Akkula said:

Manchin and Sinema aren't even on the same page for what they are demanding so that progressives even know specifically which programs they want to cut back.  Manchin wants Hyde Amendment, $1.5 Trillion price tag, etc., while Sinema wants no tax increases on the wealthy and no negotiation of drug prices.   Once you strip out all that stuff there is basically no bill left to support anyway.  Progressives cannot "settle" and pay the ransom until they have the list of demands.  

It isn't Democrats who threw a hissy fit because they wanted to force through that infrastructure bill.  Sinema wanted to preen how she could get a bi partisan bill done and she worked so nicely and constructively with those Republican senators.  When she is working with Democratic senators she won't even talk to them and forces the White House to kiss her ass so she feels "big time."

Sometimes in a negotiation the best thing to do is just to take a "strategic pause" and let the heat build up on the party blocking the deal.   That is what Manchin wanted to do, BTW.  They can explain why they can't get the votes and all this bipartisan cooperation when they actually are not just doing a Republican bill.    No wonder progressives insisted on a dual track.  If they would have passed that other bill they would have gotten ZERO....not a little of what they want....ZERO.  It is smart negotiating to keep that bill that Manchin and Sinema desperately want in their back pocket since they can pass it at any time.  

Manchin wants it drastically cut down for very specific reasons, mostly because his personal wealth is directly tied to fossil fuels.  Sinema is positioning herself for a (very unsuccessful) independent bid because she's delusional and big business donors are very happy to fund her delusions in exchange for her pumping the breaks on this for ideological reasons.

 

There is a bill they will both agree to, but it's stripped of anything remotely useful.   This is dems' fault for beefing extremely winnable Maine and NC senate races, although the DCCC could be forgiven for not foreseeing Sinema's wine-cooler-fueled heel turn and thinking they only needed one seat of breathing room to work around Manchin.

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Sinema didn't make a drastic turn. She's been moving right the past ~10 years.  You can see it in her tenure in the legislature and her campaign.  I don't understand why everyone thinks she was going to be an Uber progressive.

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4 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

Sinema didn't make a drastic turn. She's been moving right the past ~10 years.  You can see it in her tenure in the legislature and her campaign.  I don't understand why everyone thinks she was going to be an Uber progressive.

Going to the right of manchin is a big jump.   

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1 minute ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

Going to the right of manchin is a big jump.   

How is she to the right of Manchin?  She's voted for 100% of bidens nominees where Manchin has not. She wants climate change provisions in the reconciliation, Manchin doesn't.  

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5 hours ago, robe said:

This is the Reality the Moderate left has a 52-48 majority. The moderate right has a 51-49 majority. They answer to their Constituents. The Democrats are going to have cave. I would be shock to see Manchin budge.

the Democrats can get a little of what they want or nothing. 
 

2024 is your next chance 

Doubt the progressives cave 

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3 hours ago, HR_Poke said:

Read some article that said Manchin and Sinema aren't even on the same page, so there's a good chance what they agree too won't pass the progressives in the house.  Essentially they killed the deal completely 

Two different topics.  The 3T isn’t a squeeze for them.  They are happy to cut that back and I largely agree with them.  Not raising the debt ceiling is another matter.  That is where the squeeze will come.

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It looks like Bernie is going to play "bad cop" with an Oped in WV.   AOC and the other folks have absolutely nothing to lose by attacking these two clowns. If they won't vote for anything they just need to say it and leave the party if they don't support the platform.   As for Manchin,  we may as well have a real Republican instead of a faux Democrat.   Presumably both he a Sinema need democrats to vote for them instead of someone else in a primary.

https://www.wvgazettemail.com/opinion/op_ed_commentaries/sen-bernie-sanders-lets-stand-together-to-protect-working-families-opinion/article_a3c7ca4e-ed65-522b-9693-a9dc32076187.html

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2 hours ago, Akkula said:

It looks like Bernie is going to play "bad cop" with an Oped in WV.   AOC and the other folks have absolutely nothing to lose by attacking these two clowns. If they won't vote for anything they just need to say it and leave the party if they don't support the platform.   As for Manchin,  we may as well have a real Republican instead of a faux Democrat.   Presumably both he a Sinema need democrats to vote for them instead of someone else in a primary.

https://www.wvgazettemail.com/opinion/op_ed_commentaries/sen-bernie-sanders-lets-stand-together-to-protect-working-families-opinion/article_a3c7ca4e-ed65-522b-9693-a9dc32076187.html

manchin isn't surviving as a D in an R+30 state next cycle no matter how hard he tries to thread the needle.   Why would republicans vote for someone they agree with 80% of the time when they can vote for someone they agree with 100% of the time?

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