Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Akkula

Is Biden failing?

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Maji said:

You're predicting we enter a recession? That's quite the bold claim

I don't know that I agree and I think these guys have too narrow a definition of a recession but they feel we are one more month of low consumer confidence from a recession.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-another-recession-consumer-sentiment-trend.amp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Akkula said:

Guys, we are 9 months into unified control of the government and all we have to show for it is an emergency temporary covid 19 law.  Overwhelming majorities of the country believe we should raise taxes on the wealthy and overall giver the average joe a better shake.  

It really feels like we are getting some really "weak tea" leadership on the domestic front.  Biden made a tough decision on Afghanistan but he seems to be wanting to play Mr. Nice Guy so much on the domestic front that he is going to squander his chance.  

I don't think you understand the situation well enough right now, Akkula. Joe Biden isn't the reason you aren't getting the progressive policies you want. The congressional realities are. The Dems only have 50 seats in the Senate, and multiple Democratic Senators disagree with at least some of Biden's domestic policies.

I'm guessing this is where you'll say that Biden should strong arm them, to which I'll preemptively point out that is not a viable option against Manchin. Biden doesn't have anything that can twist Manchin's arms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Maji said:

You're predicting we enter a recession? That's quite the bold claim

Well we eventually always do , it’s not so bold.  Yes , disruptions in the global supply chain, a labor shortage, and very high energy prices are all problematic to the economy. They are for the most part self inflicted to . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

I don't know that I agree and I think these guys have too narrow a definition of a recession but they feel we are one more month of low consumer confidence from a recession.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-another-recession-consumer-sentiment-trend.amp

That article is a joke. It's no different than the weekly bear prediction you'll read about on CNBC.  That declining consumer sentiment sometimes predates a recession doesn't guarantee that we'll enter one. Some of the drop in consumer sentiment can also be attributed to the Delta wave, and that wave already seems to be declining

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

 

Well it is not because of the CTC and UI has ended a long long time ago.  

Welfare for one person in the state of Idaho was like $700 last time I was working with societies more vulnerable.  If you collect welfare you aslo get reduced food stamps, like 67 bucks a month.  If you do not get 200.

That's not paying anybody's rent in Boise.  So you tell me.

 

Section 8 housing assistance will pay the rent though 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bornontheblue said:

Well we eventually always do , it’s not so bold.

Of course there will be another recession at some point. The bold part is predicting there will be one before the midterms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Maji said:

Of course there will be another recession at some point. The bold part is predicting there will be one before the midterms.

I don’t know if it’s possible to know if we were in a recession by the midterms because you have to have two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. We only have three quarters to go and they usually don’t have the data until we’ll after the fact. With that being said I think the economy has some headwinds that could trigger a recession. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Maji said:

That article is a joke. It's no different than the weekly bear prediction you'll read about on CNBC.  That declining consumer sentiment sometimes predates a recession doesn't guarantee that we'll enter one. Some of the drop is consumer sentiment can also be attributed to the Delta wave, and that wave already seems to be declining

Maybe, but its not a bold claim. Economists are always predicting recessions, and with supply chain issues people aren't spending.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

Section 8 housing assistance will pay the rent though 

And the waiting list has been miles long for years.

I am sure it is longer now than when I was helping folks out 6 years ago, and the waiting list was about 14 months.  They also do not pay rent in full, either.  It's just cheaper.  

There is simply 0 chance that there is a large enough increase among those with section 8, welfare, ctc, etc to cause the labor shortage compared to 2019.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

 I think it's like 300 a month per qualifying child. If you have 3 or 4 kids

$300/month isn't even close to covering the cost of a baby or a child, and there's a cutoff point based on # of children. The idea that the CTC is responsible for the drop in labor force participation is pretty silly, especially when you consider that most developed countries already have child allowances in place. Additionally, numerous studies have confirmed that child allowances don't cause a massive decline in the workforce. It's possible that it's had a very narrow impact, but it's nowhere close to the main driver here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

Maybe, but its not a bold claim. Economists are always predicting recessions, and with supply chain issues people aren't spending.

It’s a supply sideproblem not a demand problem. Spending is not the issue here. GDP is measured in goods and services produced , not consumed. It’s hard to produce goods and services when there is a worldwide supply chain meltdown, and a labor shortage. This could very well lead to a recession. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

It’s a supply sideproblem not a demand problem. Spending is not the issue here. GDP is measured in goods and services produced , not consumed. It’s hard to produce goods and services when there is a worldwide supply chain meltdown, and a labor shortage. This could very well lead to a recession. 

If they have nothing to spend it on it's an issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Maji said:

$300/month isn't even close to covering the cost of a baby or a child, and there's a cutoff point based on # of children. The idea that the CTC is responsible for the drop in labor force participation is pretty silly, especially when you consider that most developed countries already have child allowances in place. Additionally, numerous studies have confirmed that child allowances don't cause a massive decline in the workforce. It's possible that it's had a very narrow impact, but it's nowhere close to the main driver here

 

I will say it again.  COVID made people reevaluate what their time was worth.  I am also seeing people in our generation opt for roommates at much higher rates, to cut down on housing costs and pool resources like food.  As somebody who is actively looking for work but financial does not need to, here is my experience.  I am looking for the right fit in a company I can work from home with and feel comfortable will be around for a long time, a place to settle down, after my last two contracts closed.  This decision has been made easier as my dad lost his job during the early parts of the pandemic and decided to move in with me, cutting down my costs and letting the nest egg I had saved up go a lot further.   I am making good enough money on the side I can stay unemployed for another 4-5 months very comfortably to ensure the right fit with my next job and not deplete my savings too much.  I had tentatively accepted a position but by the time training was set to start Idaho had announced crises standards of care and I needed to wait until my sister who I help take care of was out of town, so I missed the boat, but am not worried about it.

I don't need a job right now, I can pay for all my expenses comfortably without one.  I am looking forward to ensuring my next move is a long term one with a company I will be happy working for.  In the meantime, wages just keep rising, so no rush.  Win/win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is also why I have long been opposed to a national mandatory minimum wage.  Capitalism is fixing it.  Areas like Boise really need at least $15 an hour to just live, and so that is what pretty much every place in town is now forced to start at, and only rising.  Fast food gigs and cashier gigs are starting at $15-16.  Free market baby.

It's the same diamond fisted ape mentality that drove meme trading that is kind of driving this increase in wages too.  Young people in Boise have pretty much all decided they will not work for the wages of the past.  Business need them more than the other way around at the moment, and it seems like every month they keep going up and signing bonuses keep getting better.

Capitalism baby.  Love it or leave it.  If you can not afford to pay the wages the market demands right now, your business simply should not be operating here.  That simple.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

 

I will say it again.  COVID made people reevaluate what their time was worth.  I am also seeing people in our generation opt for roommates at much higher rates, to cut down on housing costs and pool resources like food.  As somebody who is actively looking for work but financial does not need to, here is my experience.  I am looking for the right fit in a company I can work from home with and feel comfortable will be around for a long time, a place to settle down, after my last two contracts closed.  This decision has been made easier as my dad lost his job during the early parts of the pandemic and decided to move in with me, cutting down my costs and letting the nest egg I had saved up go a lot further.   I am making good enough money on the side I can stay unemployed for another 4-5 months very comfortably to ensure the right fit with my next job and not deplete my savings too much.  I had tentatively accepted a position but by the time training was set to start Idaho had announced crises standards of care and I needed to wait until my sister who I help take care of was out of town, so I missed the boat, but am not worried about it.

I don't need a job right now, I can pay for all my expenses comfortably without one.  I am looking forward to ensuring my next move is a long term one with a company I will be happy working for.  In the meantime, wages just keep rising, so no rush.  Win/win.

If you are making money on the side you are c considered employed. Self employed. Your situation is not typical. Most households cannot just stop working for  a year to reevaluate things if they don’t have major government assistance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

If they have nothing to spend it on it's an issue.

If we have another recession it won’t be because people don’t have enough money to spend. It will be a caused by supply side issues. The last supply side recession we had with runaway inflation was 1981. Interest rates had to be raised to like 12% at a time when unemployment was above 10%. It was worse than the so called Great Recession of 2007-8

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

If we have another recession it won’t be because people don’t have enough money to spend. It will be a caused by supply side issues. The last supply side recession we had with runaway inflation was 1981. Interest rates had to be raised to like 12% at a time when unemployment was above 10%. It was worse than the so called Great Recession of 2007-8

I didn't say they wouldn't have money to spend.  But if you have nothing to buy it will cause a recession.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

If you are making money on the side you are c considered employed. Self employed. Your situation is not typical. Most households cannot just stop working for  a year to reevaluate things if they don’t have major government assistance. 

You seem to be confusing household here.  Most of the people in town who can work but are opting not to are not parents or even married.  They don't need a traditional job to get by with a few roommates and some know how.  Sure they could get by better off with a standard job, I could too, but if the increase in standard of living is only minimal why sign away 40 hours of your life a week to do some shit job?

People are not having it anymore.  Especially the under 35 crowd without a degree.  The Pandemic proved what the value of their labor was worth

Just a few days ago I accepted a position as a chess coach at a local club.  It's only a few hours a week. I can start printing my own lamented puzzle books and selling them and get into private lessons as well.  This is just one of the ways I am able to earn income without a regular job or what is typically considered self employed.  Gig economy.   2 years ago I never would have even dreamed of staying unemployed for more than a few weeks, it would make me feel gross and bad.  Now, I learned what my time was worth.  I work about 15 hours total a week and can meet all my needs.  I miss the 40's, I really do.  Mostly for the inter person interaction and the comradely relations I seem to build at the companies I work for than for the modest increase in income a 40 hour job would provide.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...