The next dominoes of conference realignment.

[shizzle787]

Hi all. I have never posted on this board before so here goes. 

With some nuggets from Matt Brown and his podcast (if you don't know who he is, look him up-very reliable), here is my latest prediction for the conference realignment dominoes.

Air Force, Colorado State, and UAB are rumored to be close to finalizing the deal to join the AAC. I don't think Army will leave independence. Therefore, I think the 4th school will be Rice. 

West: Air Force, Colorado State, Rice, SMU, Navy, Tulsa
East: UAB, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, USF, Temple

At this point, the Mountain West is up. They are down to 9 Olympic members and 10 football members. Their options include trying to add Gonzaga, add some combination of NMSU and Texas schools or add FCS powers NDSU or Montana. I originally thought Gonzaga would go to the MW, but seeing as it is not a major league in basketball, Gonzaga continues to be the big fish in the small WCC pond. Adding FCS schools would definitely hurt the brand even if they could compete. New Mexico will not allow New Mexico State to join the league. None of the remaining teams in TX really move the need brand-wise so the MW decides to offer Hawaii full membership to get to 10 in both sports.

West: San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State
East: Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada

The MAC looks around and decides to stay put at 12. 

This leaves a duel between C-USA and the Sun Belt. 

A small reorganization ensues. The Sun Belt picks off Southern Miss and FAU, and C-USA counters by grabbing Texas State and NMSU (to give UTEP a travel partner). This leaves the Sun Belt with 11 schools (13 in Olympics) and C-USA with 12 schools. The two basketball schools in the Sun Belt leave for basketball conferences (UT-Arlington to the MVC with Belmont; Little Rock heads off to the SoCon). The Sun Belt then decides to get back to 12 by adding Liberty. 

Sun Belt: 
West: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Louisiana, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Troy
East: Liberty, FAU, App State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

C-USA: 
West: NMSU, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State, LaTech
East: Marshall, FIU, ODU, Charlotte, WKU, MTSU

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, and UMass

 

[azinco]

Your MWC east would be the weakest division in college football.

[shizzle787]

3 minutes ago, azinco said:

Your MWC east would be the weakest division in college football.

Yes, but the MW west would be really good. 

[shizzle787]

4 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

If the MWC only had 10 schools there wouldn't be divisions. And I agree with what Mark Zeigler has been told. The MWC without AF and CSU is a stronger conference and loses no media value.

If they leave fine and if they stay that's fine too. 

If you don't have divisions, you have to have a round robin. I'm not sure the MW would limit itself OOC for a 9-game conference schedule. 

[Spaztecs]

5 minutes ago, shizzle787 said:

If you don't have divisions, you have to have a round robin. I'm not sure the MW would limit itself OOC for a 9-game conference schedule. 

Nine is doable in 2-3 years. A quick look at future schedules shows teams with 4 OOC games scheduled only for the next 3-4 years.

Besides if the NewMags do join a Conference they will break their MW game contracts.

[UNLV2001]

41 minutes ago, shizzle787 said:

Hi all. I have never posted on this board before so here goes. 

With some nuggets from Matt Brown and his podcast (if you don't know who he is, look him up-very reliable), here is my latest prediction for the conference realignment dominoes.

Air Force, Colorado State, and UAB are rumored to be close to finalizing the deal to join the AAC. I don't think Army will leave independence. Therefore, I think the 4th school will be Rice. 

West: Air Force, Colorado State, Rice, SMU, Navy, Tulsa
East: UAB, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, USF, Temple

At this point, the Mountain West is up. They are down to 9 Olympic members and 10 football members. Their options include trying to add Gonzaga, add some combination of NMSU and Texas schools or add FCS powers NDSU or Montana. I originally thought Gonzaga would go to the MW, but seeing as it is not a major league in basketball, Gonzaga continues to be the big fish in the small WCC pond. Adding FCS schools would definitely hurt the brand even if they could compete. New Mexico will not allow New Mexico State to join the league. None of the remaining teams in TX really move the need brand-wise so the MW decides to offer Hawaii full membership to get to 10 in both sports.

West: San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State
East: Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada

The MAC looks around and decides to stay put at 12. 

This leaves a duel between C-USA and the Sun Belt. 

A small reorganization ensues. The Sun Belt picks off Southern Miss and FAU, and C-USA counters by grabbing Texas State and NMSU (to give UTEP a travel partner). This leaves the Sun Belt with 11 schools (13 in Olympics) and C-USA with 12 schools. The two basketball schools in the Sun Belt leave for basketball conferences (UT-Arlington to the MVC with Belmont; Little Rock heads off to the SoCon). The Sun Belt then decides to get back to 12 by adding Liberty. 

Sun Belt: 
West: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Louisiana, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Troy
East: Liberty, FAU, App State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

C-USA: 
West: NMSU, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, Texas State, LaTech
East: Marshall, FIU, ODU, Charlotte, WKU, MTSU

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, and UMass

 

Welcome aboard & greetings 

IF CSU & AFA join that mess CSU could shutter half their already half filled stadium .......Losing AF basketball is a net gain for the MWC 

Good luck & nice knowing ya's CSU & AF !! 

Enjoy the longer road trips to play schools you've got no history against for less money 

[UNLV2001]

21 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

If the MWC only had 10 schools there wouldn't be divisions. And I agree with what Mark Zeigler has been told. The MWC without AF and CSU is a stronger conference and loses no media value.

If they leave fine and if they stay that's fine too. 

[UNLV2001]

9 minutes ago, Spaztecs said:

Nine is doable in 2-3 years. A quick look at future schedules shows teams with 4 OOC games scheduled only for the next 3-4 years.

Besides if the NewMags do join a Conference they will break their MW game contracts.

UNLV with the new stadium would probably love another OOC game to get some P5's that travel well to come in and bring $$$ 

[mugtang]

1 minute ago, Ibanez said:

In a few years most conferences will have only 3 OOC games anyway.

I’d like round robin so we can play Boise annually. It sucks we don’t play every year. 

[shizzle787]

1 minute ago, Ibanez said:

In a few years most conferences will have only 3 OOC games anyway.

Very possible. My general rationale when it comes to scheduling is that if you are a power school, you want to play as many conference games as possible (e.g. the B1G considered going to 10 games a few years a go). If you are a non-power school, you want to play as many non-conference games against power schools as possible. 

[UNLV2001]

10 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I’d like round robin so we can play Boise annually. It sucks we don’t play every year. 

 

4 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

Yep. Makes no sense. I posted yesterday Boise should be playing Nevada, Fresno, and Utah State every year. We have basically lost all of our rivals and somehow picked up BYU instead. I'm fine with BYU as a rival because I hate them as much as Fresno and Nevada. 

Plus with the power that be in CFB - having the MWC winner play a MWC championship game could ding a MWC shot at any playoff spot - Where a better OOC opponent strengthens the schedule & no upset in some meaningless conference title game 

[Big Frog II]

Air Force and CSU joining the AAC makes no sense what so ever.  Do they think SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and Memphis are going to be big draws?  Memphis could be gone if the Big 12 expands again.  After UH, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC TV contract is going to go down.  I think these two schools are going to regret this if true.

[shizzle787]

2 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

Air Force and CSU joining the AAC makes no sense what so ever.  Do they think SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and Memphis are going to be big draws?  Memphis could be gone if the Big 12 expands again.  After UH, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC TV contract is going to go down.  I think these two schools are going to regret this if true.

The draw for Air Force is eastern exposure and playing Navy in conference to free up an OOC game. Colorado State also is probably interested in eastern exposure and tagging along with their buddy. 

[NorthWestCowboy]

12 minutes ago, Big Frog II said:

Air Force and CSU joining the AAC makes no sense what so ever.  Do they think SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and Memphis are going to be big draws?  Memphis could be gone if the Big 12 expands again.  After UH, Cincinnati, and UCF leave the AAC TV contract is going to go down.  I think these two schools are going to regret this if true.

This is exactly what I have been saying and why I think it makes zero sense for CSU especially and to a somewhat lesser extent for AF to leave.  AF at least has more of a national following and of course will get to be in a football conference with Navy.  For CSU they'd basically be leaving their long time rivals to go to a conference with no rivals and after the media deal is adjusted with the AAC defections similar or less media revenue.  Anyone that thinks the AAC will keep their current media deal after UCF, Cincy and Houston leave is delusional.

[UNLV2001]

4 minutes ago, NorthWestCowboy said:

This is exactly what I have been saying and why I think it makes zero sense for CSU especially and to a somewhat lesser extent for AF to leave.  AF at least has more of a national following and of course will get to be in a football conference with Navy.  For CSU they'd basically be leaving their long time rivals to go to a conference with no rivals and after the media deal is adjusted with the AAC defections similar or less media revenue.  Anyone that thinks the AAC will keep their current media deal after UCF, Cincy and Houston leave is delusional.

AF is a bit of a "small" national brand...........CSU has little following outside the front range & there's absolutely zero ties, history or connection to a bunch of forgotten schools in OK, LA & wherever 

[TheJackel]

I’d do nothing.  The MWC is almost resurgent in football right now with a scary west division and good usu and Wyoming teams in the mountain to compliment Boise. I’d take a conference with no divisions where the two best teams play each other in the championship.  It sounds good in basketball as well, CSU is decent but it’s really not much of a loss and we lose one of the rpi anchors in Air Force.  At that point I’d kick the tires on Gonzaga again by saying they only have to play 18 conference games and they’re in a stronger league. 
 

If we had to do something you check out UTSA’s interest. 

[lobo-tomy]

1 hour ago, mugtang said:

I’d like round robin so we can play Boise annually. It sucks we don’t play every year. 

I was thinking Nevada and Boise need to be in the same division if we have them. It’s good  for the fans and that should be part of any decisions. Yes, my fantasy land is vast if I think that would happen. 

[Wyobraska]

This should be merged with anyone of the other 3-4 realignment threads that already exist 

[Old_Sparty1857]

17 minutes ago, Wyobraska said:

This should be merged with anyone of the other 3-4 realignment threads that already exist 

Hot Air

[Cowboy]

1 hour ago, NorthWestCowboy said:

For CSU they'd basically be leaving their long time rivals to go to a conference with no rivals 

CSU is bringing Air Force with them. None of the other teams CSU currently plays is moving the needle for their athletic department.