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What next for the AAC remnants ?

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4 hours ago, fanhood said:

The AAC won’t exist in five years.

The most logical conclusion is that the MW adds Memphis and SMU. The Sun Belt takes ECU and Tulane, as they are ideal geographical fits. Navy goes back to Independent status. Then Tulsa, USF, and Temple fight to be the last two teams in CUSA.

Buyout money would be one reason it will exist. Have at least 30 million coming from the three departing schools. Also guessing those schools will have to forfeit their remaining shares of the UCON buyout money (which is what 12 mil left on that). Lets just call that 40 million in buyout money. I know that is peanuts for some conferences but for the little 5 conferences that is real money.

Another reason would be the how many teams it takes to dissolve the conference? If it is a simple majority maybe they can get there (Houston/UCF/Cincy to Big-12, Memphis/SMU/Wichita State to MW, Navy to indy). If it is any more than a majority they have no chance. In what world would Tulane, ECU, Tulsa, USF, or Temple pick trying to join the CUSA/Sun Belt instead of poaching schools from the CUSA/Sun Belt (using the at least 40 million they have in buyouts if needed). Plus AAC has better NCAAT credits than the CUSA. Also if the conference dissolves whichever team earn there credits gets to keep them. Those remaining 5 schools didn't really earn that many credits so I doubt that would be motivation for them to dissolve the conference. 

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28 minutes ago, thedude15 said:

Buyout money would be one reason it will exist. Have at least 30 million coming from the three departing schools. Also guessing those schools will have to forfeit their remaining shares of the UCON buyout money (which is what 12 mil left on that). Lets just call that 40 million in buyout money. I know that is peanuts for some conferences but for the little 5 conferences that is real money.

Another reason would be the how many teams it takes to dissolve the conference? If it is a simple majority maybe they can get there (Houston/UCF/Cincy to Big-12, Memphis/SMU/Wichita State to MW, Navy to indy). If it is any more than a majority they have no chance. In what world would Tulane, ECU, Tulsa, USF, or Temple pick trying to join the CUSA/Sun Belt instead of poaching schools from the CUSA/Sun Belt (using the at least 40 million they have in buyouts if needed). Plus AAC has better NCAAT credits than the CUSA. Also if the conference dissolves whichever team earn there credits gets to keep them. Those remaining 5 schools didn't really earn that many credits so I doubt that would be motivation for them to dissolve the conference. 

Memphis/SMU/Wichita State to MW, and Navy to indy.  Wouldn't that be another $40 million in exit fees?  I really don't see the MWC poaching any AAC schools for the fact is they would have to pay that $10 million exit fee per school.  Say the AAC deal gets cut in half (down to $3.5), would MWC's $4 million be enough to make up the different for the exit fee, lost share of exit fees from UConn, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, lost NCAA credits shares (the MWC is not going share the credits they already have with new members), and likely more travel expenses.  I see no upside for AAC schools to join the MWC, just like I see no upside for MWC to join the AAC.

 

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9 hours ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

Where is the added value in going to 16?

value is in reduced travel costs through tighter divisions

it is also in significantly improved Basketball and BBall credits

lastly it is through increased odds of making the Championship playoffs 

I'm not seeing any program that moves the needle.

Wichita, Gonzaga, Memphis, SMU are all better than most our teams in hoops 

Memphis, SMU both are equal to any program not named Boise 

We don't need programs in another time zone.

the central time zone allows us to offer more games in earlier windows.  We do need to be in Texas as does every other team   

Just stay at 12. We aren't losing any programs.

once you lose it’s likely too late and the AAC has passed you.  We came close to this already.

 

See comments 

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5 hours ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

What "sales pitch" do we have?

More money? Nope.

Better exposure? Nope

What do they gain by moving to the MW?

 

 

Better conference. And yes, the potential to make more money. WCC money for Gonzaga is set in stone, it would all come down to wether or not the MWC would want to give Gonzaga enough TV money to compensate for Gonzaga’s tourney credit deal. The MWC can obviously only go so far before it no longer makes sense for us. But the ability to match is there. 

Look, if you think the best move is for the MWC to do nothing, great for you man. I flat out disagree, and no amount of back and forth is going to change either of our minds.

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3 hours ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Miles will be there three years. In the third year he will pull off a miracle by finishing .500 and, even more impressive, convincing his bosses to erase the turd paintings on the court of that so-called arena.

Then he'll live for wherever the hell Wazzu is located.

Please. Tim Miles is 55, he isn’t leaving for some dogshit job like Wazzu. He’s been there done that as far as going to a doormat P5 school to get the bag, he’s only leaving the MWC for a good job this time.  

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10 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Better conference. And yes, the potential to make more money. WCC money for Gonzaga is set in stone, it would all come down to wether or not the MWC would want to give Gonzaga enough TV money to compensate for Gonzaga’s tourney credit deal. The MWC can obviously only go so far before it no longer makes sense for us. But the ability to match is there. 

Look, if you think the best move is for the MWC to do nothing, great for you man. I flat out disagree, and no amount of back and forth is going to change either of our minds.

You're right about changing our minds. 

I think the only way we expand is if our TV partners ask us to expand.

When I was speaking of added value, I should have been more specific.  I was speaking of TV revenue.  None of the suggested additions move the needle in football.  And no one, outside of Gonzaga, moves the needle in basketball, and even then it's not enough to be able to pay them what they are already getting. 

Thompson has said something along the lines of 'you either play football here or you don't play at all.'

IIRC, Wichita inquired about joining the MW a few years ago and we weren't interested.  Clearly, we would have made an exception for Gonzaga, but because of their new deal, that is now a pipe dream.       

ETA:  Gonzaga is the 19th wealthiest college basketball in the country.  

19. Gonzaga

  • Total Basketball Revenue: $20,087,825

  • Men’s Basketball Revenue: $16,147,924

  • Women’s Basketball Revenue: $3,939,901

"Gonzaga is the epitome of the “new blood” instead of “blue blood” in college basketball. The tiny Jesuit school from Spokane, Washington, has been to every NCAA Tournament since 1999, reaching the title game in 2017. The women’s team is a growing power as well."

https://money.yahoo.com/richest-college-basketball-programs-america-210045624.html

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On 9/3/2021 at 5:59 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

If the opportunity arises then SMU yes.  Tulsa isn't appealing.  Memphis and Tulane are too far away.

The MWC should stay in Texas for #14.  Rice, UTSA or UTEP.  And either Gonzaga or Wichita State for hoops.

Why in God’s name would you want that POS UTEP? Might as well add NMSU.

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17 minutes ago, Nevada Convert said:

Why in God’s name would you want that POS UTEP? Might as well add NMSU.

LOL.  That post is four days old.  I’ve changed my mind at least twice since then about what the MWC should do and posted other suggestions.  :D

To be serious, I only listed UTEP because of their institutional and geographic fit with the MWC and their past history with conference members.  But I agree that their football and basketball programs have sunk so far that they’re not a good candidate.  That’s why I put them last.

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12 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Please. Tim Miles is 55, he isn’t leaving for some dogshit job like Wazzu. He’s been there done that as far as going to a doormat P5 school to get the bag, he’s only leaving the MWC for a good job this time.  

Just by hiring him, SJSU demonstrated they are serious about improving basketball.  The recruits he's already brought in demonstrates they hired the right man for the job.

I expect SJSU to improve over the next 3 years.  

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13 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Please. Tim Miles is 55, he isn’t leaving for some dogshit job like Wazzu. He’s been there done that as far as going to a doormat P5 school to get the bag, he’s only leaving the MWC for a good job this time.  

All right, if you insist. In three years he'll leave SJSU for Stanford.

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I definitely think that the MWC should ask our TV partners if they would increase our payout if we added SMU/Memphis/Wichita State/anyone else. And if our TV partners are in favor, I hope we put out some feelers to the schools in question. That said, I think no expansion is far and away the most likely scenario. I'm doubtful that any expansion candidates move the dial enough to get our TV partners interested. And even if they do, I doubt that we can offer any AAC schools enough money for it to be worthwhile once you factor in additional travel costs, exit fees, and the loss of regional rivalries.

And to be clear, I would love to have Gonzaga in the MWC, but I recognize that it is almost certainly a pipe dream. They are already earning #1 seeds in the WCC. What incentive do they have to leave possibly the most stable conference in the country consisting of other small private religious schools to join an MWC consisting of much larger public universities where half the conference is trying to leave? I'm virtually certain they never seriously considered leaving the WCC. The flirtation a few years ago was just a head fake to get some concessions from the WCC. So while I would love it, it's almost certainly not happening.

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I would bet that if we want any AAC remnants we'll probably need to add 4 to help limit travel...and 16 members is probably a non-starter for a conference at our level. If possible I would add SMU/Memphis/Tulane/Tulsa. Is it a super sexy optimized add? No. But FB drives the bus which means Oly only adds are unlikely. These 4 get the MW into a new time zone and FB hungry regions of the US. Its also helps the new additions limit travel. 

The New MW

CalStates+Haw Div: FSU/SJSU/SDSU/Hawaii

Highlands Div: UNLV/UNR/BSU/USU

Mtn Goats Div: WYO/CSU/AFA/UNM

AAC Div: Memphis/SMU/Tulane/Tulsa

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21 hours ago, fanhood said:

The AAC won’t exist in five years.

The most logical conclusion is that the MW adds Memphis and SMU. The Sun Belt takes ECU and Tulane, as they are ideal geographical fits. Navy goes back to Independent status. Then Tulsa, USF, and Temple fight to be the last two teams in CUSA.

So P6?  

Kidding aside, wouldn't it make more sense to pull the better performing teams from CUSA and The Sun Belt to the AAC for all involved except the shitty CUSA and Sun Belt teams?

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51 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

I would bet that if we want any AAC remnants we'll probably need to add 4 to help limit travel...and 16 members is probably a non-starter for a conference at our level. If possible I would add SMU/Memphis/Tulane/Tulsa. Is it a super sexy optimized add? No. But FB drives the bus which means Oly only adds are unlikely. These 4 get the MW into new times zones and FB hungry regions of the US. Its also helps the new additions limit travel. 

The New MW

CalStates+Haw Div: FSU/SJSU/SDSU/Hawaii

Highlands Div: UNLV/UNR/BSU/USU

Mtn Goats Div: WYO/CSU/AFA/UNM

AAC Div: Memphis/SMU/Tulane/Tulsa

How on Earth do we keep coming back to the "pod" idea? We tried it. It sucked. Let's not let history repeat itself.

 

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1 minute ago, WYO1016 said:

How on Earth do we keep coming back to the "pod" idea? We tried it. It sucked. Let's not let history repeat itself.

 

Well when we did it last time WYO was in the wrong division so not surprised you feel that way. Times are changing and conf's are getting bigger. The 16 with pods I proposed is miles ahead of the 16 team WAC in 1996. 

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1 minute ago, AztecSU said:

Well when we did it last time WYO was in the wrong division so not surprised you feel that way. Times are changing and conf's are getting bigger. The 16 with pods I proposed is miles ahead of the 16 team WAC in 1996. 

I definitely think you've got the pods setup the right way. The problem is the same as it was in the WAC16 days: logistics. Ferd Lewis had a great quote in the Star-Advertiser about them:

Quote

The University of Hawaii can travel to Tokyo and eat rice in less time than it takes to go to Houston to play Rice.

Now we're talking about Hawaii and Tulane being in the same conference? That's batshit crazy.

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Dennis Dodd with a rather prophetic article from May of 2018

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-wac-lessons-we-learned-from-the-16-team-conference-experiment/

Quote

Texas and Oklahoma are the most lucrative pieces out there -- if either is of a mind to leave the Big 12. Each will also be making at least $50 million in annual revenue by 2020. Those schools could add value to other leagues, but the best place for both to win championships remains the Big 12.

 

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11 minutes ago, WYO1016 said:

I definitely think you've got the pods setup the right way. The problem is the same as it was in the WAC16 days: logistics. Ferd Lewis had a great quote in the Star-Advertiser about them:

Now we're talking about Hawaii and Tulane being in the same conference? That's batshit crazy.

We can further reduce travel impact by permanently pairing the PODS (CALst/Haw+Highland) & (Goats+AAC). So really divisions over PODS. If we go to 9 conf games that means only 1 away game a season with 1 of the two furthest PODS. 

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Why couldn't the AAC raid the top of the Sun Belt?  Coastal Carolina, App State, then add Liberty etc.  Still in good position to have a Top 25 program every year and have a team that could content for the auto-berth.

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On 9/5/2021 at 11:43 PM, Aslowhiteguy said:

Do you think Witchita moves the needle enough to be worthwhile?

That's a lot of travel for sports like tennis & cross country. They'd have to add a lot of value just to cover the travel expenses.

Tennis and Cross Country are single meet championship sports.  It's Women's Basketball, Volleyball, Soccer that are the hard ones.  But you could go to divisions and alter the schedule so it's not too bad.

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