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Conference Realignment thread

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2 minutes ago, Someone Else said:

I'll say up front that I am just speculating and this is just an opinion.  I am aware I may be completely off base.  

1) Regarding the west coast tv slots.  The question in my mind is not do they exist but how much broadcasting companies are willing to pay for them.  Right now, it seems not much.  This is why I say the conference affiliation needs to be stronger.

2) I kind of disagree.  I think the exact reason SDSU is building a football stadium is to get a P5 invite.  I think that's why they are still playing football.  That is where the money is.  

3) Of course the entire project isn't all about football it's about expanding the school footprint which will be good for school enrollment long term.  But I've pointed out above that SDSU is a very attractive school for students to apply to and that has little to do with football.  The overwhelming majority of students would apply to SDSU even if they didn't have football.

4) Certainly SDSU will be able to find SAs to play football but will SDSU want to if they are left out of the big party and are losing money doing so.  Right now, SDSU is all in on football but the entire landscape is changing and that may make it unrealistic for them to continue. (SDSU would not be alone here... it may be everyone who isn't included in the big boy party.)

5) I agree that stadium can and will be used for many things so eliminating football wouldn't render building it a waste of money.

Again, just my opinion so perhaps I am wrong about it all.

The only P5 invite that would ever make sense is the Pac-12. Only the most hardcore SDSU fan would even consider that a possibility. The only way we get into the PAC is if they get raided by the BIG, but then what remains would only make it a G-7 conference.

If you are not already in a P5 conference you are not getting into one. With UT and OK leaving the B12 the remaining 8 members, perhaps with the exception of WVU, become G6 schools. In the PAC, well OSU and WSU are G6 schools You could say the same about the Zona schools, Arizona is not in a good market and ASU has the huge Phoenix market but lacks the academic standing.

My belief is the dust will not settle until there are just 32 teams who will actually remain in "the club." It might start out at 48 but that will be whittled down. The NFL does quite well with 32 teams. Again, there is, maybe, 10 programs that have a realistic chance at a national championship. Not sure how long that will take. There is no "revenue sharing" to try to create "equity" like is done in the NFL. Hell, even in the NFL owners work to limit what revenue the have to share (which is why you have premium seating and suites). There will still be other options for those that want to continue to play football, but they will not be paid and be more like the student athletes universities profess they serve. Football, to me, has peaked. The NFL is seeing loss of interest and keep doing stupid things that don't benefit the sport, parents are now encouraging their kids to go into other sports, and rule changes to make the game safer takes away from some of the appeal of the sport. Football will still be around but greed is really making the sport unappetizing for many people. I hear the 'Bama QB is already making $1M/year. What will his center make? NIL may be incredibly divisive in the college game. As football wanes, what sport do you think will garner more interest? 

Yes, building a stadium is a risk, but SDSU has no competition in a county of some 3.5 million people (5th largest in the US). And, many San Diegans moved to Temecula, commute back to town for work, given house prices so our reach is a bit beyond the actual county.  You will also find SDSU alumni throughout Southern Cal.

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1 hour ago, Someone said:

if they can get it done sooner than later when the covid is gone and things really open up there is going to be a massive backlog or bands looking to tour and needing venues

should jack the prices for that type of facility rental sky high.....all the more so in San Diego where the weather outdoors is pretty damn good most of the year....then you just bend the concert goers over on parking and with the raw land to park cars.....pack em on in

Petco is the choice for most big shows.  That's not going to change.  Everyone thinks Qualcomm was a good concert venue. There were something like 17 concerts in 50 years at the facility. They may get some shows that need a big outdoor space during baseball season but it's not going to be the cash cow everyone thinks it will be.  If these things (football stadiums) were good investments, the NFL would build them.  They're not. That's why they are pretty much all tax payer subsidized.

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On the UNLV to PAC idea.........let's list some things good & bad for UNLV

1)  :thumbsup:  Market size - LV is the 2nd largest western market that does not have a definitive PAC tie in like a school in the market or a school a few miles down the road (OU & OSU to Portland) 

2) :thumbsup: Las Vegas itself - The PAC already holds their BB Tournaments in LV & a major bowl is coming with PAC tie in, so the PAC already knows this reality 

3) :thumbsup: Geographic proximity - LV is within a half days drive from UCLA, USC, ASU & UA, and not that much farther from Utah. Also a short flight from CAL & Stanford - Then factor in LV is a major airport with easy flights from every PAC city 

4) :thumbsup: Stadium is sitting there NOW. No building on the come issues. The sitting stadium would be top 3 in the PAC if not number one on day one - Say what you will about UNLV FB attendance, but anyone with a brain would realize UNLV playing a MWC schedule vs a PAC schedule would immediately bring newfound interest & attendance from home & visiting teams 

5) :hmmm: Academics - While UNLV has a reputation as less than stellar academics, there is little doubt that UNLV is on the rise in this area. There already exists a decently ranked law school, a new medical school is open & the med building is already out of the ground and being built. The overall academics are on the rise and association with the PAC would only improve that ascension 

6) :hmmm: UNLV FB facilities - Again UNLV is ahead of the curve here. The facilities are in place & again association with the PAC would only increase potential recruiting and if the player payment thing is an issue, there's $$ in LV for that should the right players opt for UNLV

7) :unsure: This is the only negative that UNLV would face. The basic W-L history of the program over the last 30+ years. Again, being in the PAC might & probably would change this dynamic to the point UNLV could be competitive - being in the PAC brings an immediate upgrade to recruiting, fan interests and overall perception of the program

8) :thumbsup: Despite some years of mediocrity, UNLV BB still carries a cache' - The T&M Arena is probably better than most PAC arenas already. Again, being in the PAC will only increase potential recruitment and UNLV could be competitive in the PAC within a year or two 

9) :thumbsup: Las Vegas as a recruiting destination for PAC schools........there is talent in LV & FB, basketball & even baseball recruiting would be a fit on the local & PAC conference level 

Basically the positives & potentials outnumber the negatives as the negatives could be solved faster just based on UNLV joining the PAC 

UNLV med school building 

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image.png

 

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4 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

On the UNLV to PAC idea.........let's list some things good & bad for UNLV

1)  :thumbsup:  Market size - LV is the 2nd largest western market that does not have a definitive PAC tie in like a school in the market or a school a few miles down the road (OU & OSU to Portland) 

2) :thumbsup: Las Vegas itself - The PAC already holds their BB Tournaments in LV & a major bowl is coming with PAC tie in, so the PAC already knows this reality 

3) :thumbsup: Geographic proximity - LV is within a half days drive from UCLA, USC, ASU & UA, and not that much farther from Utah. Also a short flight from CAL & Stanford - Then factor in LV is a major airport with easy flights from every PAC city 

4) :thumbsup: Stadium is sitting there NOW. No building on the come issues. The sitting stadium would be top 3 in the PAC if not number one on day one - Say what you will about UNLV FB attendance, but anyone with a brain would realize UNLV playing a MWC schedule vs a PAC schedule would immediately bring newfound interest & attendance from home & visiting teams 

5) :hmmm: Academics - While UNLV has a reputation as less than stellar academics, there is little doubt that UNLV is on the rise in this area. There already exists a decently ranked law school, a new medical school is open & the med building is already out of the ground and being built. The overall academics are on the rise and association with the PAC would only improve that ascension 

6) :hmmm: UNLV FB facilities - Again UNLV is ahead of the curve here. The facilities are in place & again association with the PAC would only increase potential recruiting and if the player payment thing is an issue, there's $$ in LV for that should the right players opt for UNLV

7) :unsure: This is the only negative that UNLV would face. The basic W-L history of the program over the last 30+ years. Again, being in the PAC might & probably would change this dynamic to the point UNLV could be competitive - being in the PAC brings an immediate upgrade to recruiting, fan interests and overall perception of the program

8) :thumbsup: Despite some years of mediocrity, UNLV BB still carries a cache' - The T&M Arena is probably better than most PAC arenas already. Again, being in the PAC will only increase potential recruitment and UNLV could be competitive in the PAC within a year or two 

9) :thumbsup: Las Vegas as a recruiting destination for PAC schools........there is talent in LV & FB, basketball & even baseball recruiting would be a fit on the local & PAC conference level 

Basically the positives & potentials outnumber the negatives as the negatives could be solved faster just based on UNLV joining the PAC 

UNLV med school building 

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image.png

 

Tier 1 & Land Grant Institution

You get RebelRobert on your Conference fan forum.

unlv1.jpg.b5a061f857d25e9043a0dcc3b3304df8.jpgproper.stadium.seating.jpg.c23570fdfa040c19970b9c09cf59cabe.jpgLV.jpg.3442fe9ee33f7a98a42f7ef36bbb610c.jpgLV1.jpg.04e8eff5855f3acc10b68f710f26d2fb.jpgLV2.jpg.91f3f0a17c6a7ece92a1d61554615bf8.jpg

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14 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

Petco is the choice for most big shows.  That's not going to change.  Everyone thinks Qualcomm was a good concert venue. There were something like 17 concerts in 50 years at the facility. They may get some shows that need a big outdoor space during baseball season but it's not going to be the cash cow everyone thinks it will be.  If these things (football stadiums) were good investments, the NFL would build them.  They're not. That's why they are pretty much all tax payer subsidized.

Qualcomm was a pile of shit near the end and the layout was too large for a decent concert.....a smaller venue in an actual rectangle works much better

and even with Petco right now is a unique time with the "post the covid" coming at some point and time and the pent up demand for shows.....demand is so pent up and performers so desperate to get on the road and make money I can see shows on the same night at both venues

I am not going o say it will be an earth shaking cash cow, but you get 15,000 cars parked @ $40 each that is $600,000 a night.....get a nice rental on the facilities and sell some weed and bomb pops and walk away with $1 million.......do that 4 or 5 times over a few months until tours settle in to more normalcy and you have picked up some nice cash and perhaps taken a spot as a decent venue for some bands

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1 minute ago, RebelRobert said:

Tier 1 & Land Grant Institution

You get RebelRobert on your Conference fan forum.

Let's not highlight the negatives 

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45 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I was responding to the specific clause  you cited and put in bold, as if it were a mic drop. It’s not, sorry. If they leave this will all end up in some negotiated settlement, and OU and UT are clearly conducting themselves in a way to try and pay as little as possible. Their actions seem very deliberate and carefully coordinated, and I am guessing that carefulness began long before their announcement today. Maybe OU and UT end up having to pay the full fee, maybe they don’t. 
 

And to be clear, I absolutely believe they violated the contract. Will the other Big 12 schools be able to prove that? I don’t know. If because of the SEC move 6 or 7 of those 8 Big 12 schools secure invites to other conferences, what happens then? I don’t know. Maybe Baylor is left at the end with 700 million in exit fees and all the Big 12 Tourney credits and they buy their way in to the Big East, who the hell knows.

so we somewhat see things more in line after all

can the Big 12 schools prove that hell I do not know for sure and neither do they

what I think different than you is that Texas and OU really are not worried about that and when it comes down to it they will simply offer cash and make things happen

I think they will say "two years prior distributions no problem" and then I think they will say "how much more to walk away from the GOR and be reasonable" and the Big 12 will be somewhat reasonable and Texas and OU wil, walk away with media rights after paying about $100 million each and they will move on with life

I feel the Texas legislature (and the Oklahoma one for that matter) are not going to have what it takes to stop this, but I think they will have what it takes to tell Texas and OU to pay up and they are not dragging this to court and paying tens of millions on lawyers fees if they want tl leave then cut the checks.....there are already "tweets" saying the BOR member from Texas that was pushing this has the cash lined up to make it happen

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The PAC adding UNLV & SDSU ties up the entire SW USA.......(CO, UT, NV, AZ, CA)

USA rank 

#2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA - UCLA & USC

#10 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA - ASU

#12 San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA MSA - CAL & Stanford

#13  Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA - UCLA & USC

#17 San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA MSA - SDSU

#19 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA - Colorado

#27 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV MSA - UNLV

#35 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA -Stanford & CAL

#47 Salt Lake City, UT MSA - Utah

#53 Tucson, AZ MSA - Arizona

#85 Ogden-Clearfield, UT MSA - Utah 

#90 Provo-Orem, UT MSA - Utah Could leave this one out as it's BYU home territory 

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1 hour ago, Someone Else said:

I'll say up front that I am just speculating and this is just an opinion.  I am aware I may be completely off base.  

1) Regarding the west coast tv slots.  The question in my mind is not do they exist but how much broadcasting companies are willing to pay for them.  Right now, it seems not much.  This is why I say the conference affiliation needs to be stronger.

2) I kind of disagree.  I think the exact reason SDSU is building a football stadium is to get a P5 invite.  I think that's why they are still playing football.  That is where the money is.  

3) Of course the entire project isn't all about football it's about expanding the school footprint which will be good for school enrollment long term.  But I've pointed out above that SDSU is a very attractive school for students to apply to and that has little to do with football.  The overwhelming majority of students would apply to SDSU even if they didn't have football.

4) Certainly SDSU will be able to find SAs to play football but will SDSU want to if they are left out of the big party and are losing money doing so.  Right now, SDSU is all in on football but the entire landscape is changing and that may make it unrealistic for them to continue. (SDSU would not be alone here... it may be everyone who isn't included in the big boy party.)

5) I agree that stadium can and will be used for many things so eliminating football wouldn't render building it a waste of money.

Again, just my opinion so perhaps I am wrong about it all.

1) Washington State and Oregon State get 16+% of the P12's TV revenue yet probably earn about 2% of that revenue because they are located in a tiny town in the middle of nowhere in eastern Washington and located in an averaged-sized Oregon town which in California would be considered tiny and which is only half an hour from UO which because of Nike money runs that state so everybody who loves a winner roots for them.

2) Yes. However, it sure wouldn't hurt SDSU to get the MWC to allow schools to retain their tier 3 rights. For one year after The Mtn network was dissolved, that happened and the Lakers Network picked up almost every Aztec basketball game which wasn't televised on CBS or wherever and the ratings all over SoCal were very good.

3) The majority of men sure would since SDSU's hot-coed quotient is as good as anybody's.

4) Yep. Aztec football could conceivably help get the school in the P12 in the next decade. OTOH, if we're stuck in the MWC with its buck fitty per game TV contract long enough, the school may have to sell that stadium to some NFL owner on the cheap.

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2 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

1) Washington State and Oregon State get 16+% of the P12's TV revenue yet probably earn about 2% of that revenue because they are located in a tiny town in the middle of nowhere in eastern Washington and located in an averaged-sized Oregon town which in California would be considered tiny and which is only half an hour from UO which because of Nike money runs that state so everybody who loves a winner roots for them.

2) Yes. However, it sure wouldn't hurt SDSU to get the MWC to allow schools to retain their tier 3 rights. For one year after The Mtn network was dissolved, that happened and the Lakers Network picked up almost every Aztec basketball game which wasn't televised on CBS or wherever and the ratings all over SoCal were very good.

3) The majority of men sure would since SDSU's hot-coed quotient is as good as anybody's.

4) Yep. Aztec football could conceivably help get the school in the P12 in the next decade. OTOH, if we're stuck in the MWC with its buck fitty per game TV contract long enough, the school may have to sell that stadium to some NFL owner on the cheap.

Wonder if the Chargers departure from SD aids SDSU's chances at all since the Padres are the only show in town & won't go head to head with CFB except for September (October if Padres make playoffs) 

Dedicated stadium can't hurt either and that is underway

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1 hour ago, RebelRobert said:

This guy thinks UNLV to the PAC-12.

THE NEXT METRIC for measurement — the amount they would add to the conference’s media rights revenue — is where things get sticky.

Gotta love the irony of a Washington State fan talking about that as an impediment to P12 membership.

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39 minutes ago, MAD MACGYVER said:

ESPN had an article from 2017 telling us what was going to happen

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19743196/why-2023-next-big-date-conference-shuffling

As if the 2023 date wasn't bandied about on this very board by a couple dozen of us idiots back in 2017.

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4 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

THE NEXT METRIC for measurement — the amount they would add to the conference’s media rights revenue — is where things get sticky.

Gotta love the irony of a Washington State fan talking about that as an impediment to P12 membership.

That's the thing...........some current P5 schools are just lucky to have been associated with their conferences for decades - WSU is out in the middle of no-where 90 miles away from Spokane which isn't much bigger than Boise or Reno & not a hotbed of recruiting either 

SDSU & UNLV blow Wazzu away on multiple points 

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2 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

As if the 2023 date wasn't bandied about on this very board by a couple dozen of us idiots back in 2017.

Unlike us who have no influence on anything, ESPN has a bit more money and influence than we do. Us saying it is just speculation, ESPN saying it is planning in action.

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