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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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On 4/26/2023 at 9:07 PM, robe said:

Any TCU fans want to buy the rest of my season tickets to TCU home games. 

You know season tickets aren't for public sale yet, right?

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It gives me a headache just trying to think down to your level

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On 4/26/2023 at 8:16 PM, RSF said:

You know season tickets aren't for public sale yet, right?

You know @robe is a billionaire right?  He doesn’t fly commercial airlines either. 
 

The Gov. of Texas rolls out the red carpet like a Roman Emperor is in town when robe shows up.  And it’s not how many TCU tickets do you want. It’s how many sections of the stadium do you want cleared out when your entourage arrives?

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On 4/27/2023 at 12:58 PM, AztecSU said:

Don't be mad at me RSF

 

What am I supposed to be mad about?  Same shit, different day.  Big 12 barely mentioned.  By a basketball writer, no less.  Enjoy the Pac 12.

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It gives me a headache just trying to think down to your level

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On 4/27/2023 at 11:23 AM, RSF said:

What am I supposed to be mad about?  Same shit, different day.  Big 12 barely mentioned.  By a basketball writer, no less.  Enjoy the Pac 12.

The insinuation is SDSU is for sure going to the PAC or B12. "One or the other is going to happen." I only kid because I know you don't think any MW schools are joining the conference. 

 

 

 

 

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On 4/27/2023 at 1:56 PM, AztecSU said:

The insinuation is SDSU is for sure going to the PAC or B12. I only kid because I know you don't think any MW schools are joining the conference. 

I don't.  I think JD is 'playing the game'.  No reason to get mad about it.  He's doing his job.

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On 4/27/2023 at 11:56 AM, AztecSU said:

The insinuation is SDSU is for sure going to the PAC or B12. "One or the other is going to happen." I only kid because I know you don't think any MW schools are joining the conference. 

I would figure they would want to help out UCF before stretching to the west.  Just not sure where you turn to for that.  At least WVU finally gets a mate with Cincy linking back up with them, and I am sure Cincy is happy to have them back too.

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On 4/27/2023 at 2:14 PM, East Coast Aztec said:

I would figure they would want to help out UCF before stretching to the west.  Just not sure where you turn to for that.  At least WVU finally gets a mate with Cincy linking back up with them, and I am sure Cincy is happy to have them back too.

Tulane/Memphis/USF are the only real options out east. Memphis is the best all around, USF is the closest, and Tulane has the best Academics and is closer than Memphis on top of being good in FB recently. If the B12 thinks the B10/SEC is going to eat up the ACC they should just wait for Louisville and Pitt to fall into their laps. On the other hand, if the B12 pulls SDSU/BSU/Gonzaga from out west now they hurt the PAC and fully tap into a new TZ. Then they can go to 16+ when the ACC falls apart in a decade. 

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There’s been a little more excitement today from people that don’t tend to get excited about rumors, so I think something happened this week as it relates to the PAC media deal.  Grain of salt and obviously nobody cares what Ute or rsf think about the conjecture or who’s posting the rumors…they can read what they want and take from it what they want, or not…whatever. These aren’t my thoughts, will follow up with mine in separate post:

The deal is pretty much done, and most parties aren’t happy-which means it’s probably true 

Oregon alone benefits greatly, not Washington.

Deal will be with Apple+ in its entirety.  80% stream 20% linear

Apple+ agrees to license 13 games/year to ESPN for PAC after dark.  This will involve a conference game every week beginning week 1.

Apple gets PAC network

Payout numbers reflect only 10 schools and will come in a lower than expected and rely heavily on subscriptions

deal may be very short ( like 3 years)

Washington has been the primary negotiator in the process for the PAC

Happiness: Oregon is on an island, they want a short deal catered to them and are getting it. The ‘survivors’ (wash st, ore st, cal, stan, ute) are on board with anything that keeps the conference together.  Arizona, col, asu, are likely only getting a scant number of linear games a year and are unhappy.  Washington is not happy but would rather PAC stay together and is far and away the school trying hardest to find compromise for everyone. 

Washington floated a max number of linear games/year/team to 6.  ESPN said heck no.  Oregon isn’t happy with Washington’s attempt.  Oregon will be the linear partner almost every week on ESPN after dark.

Utah nearly made ESPN walk away from the table altogether by suggesting a minimum number of linear games/season/team.

Espn is uneasy about Washington’s counter offer of max 7 linear/year/team but didn’t say no.  Oregon hates it, wants no max.  

ESPN will only agree if they get first choice of linear game every week.  Apple doesn’t want to pay for entire package but not get any of the best games.  Thus Apple isn’t terribly excited or motivated to finish quickly.

GK wants more time to find more linear options but espn and to lesser extent Apple are getting impatient.

MLS is missing subscription benchmarks and owners are worried that Apple+ may trigger contract opt outs.

The media deal bubble has popped

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For the first time in a long time, my thoughts on what would probably happen at this stage in realignment are changing.  I don’t think there’s a scenario now where the PAC adds any schools unless they lose more schools.  In other words, the PAC is probably going to be 10 moving forward, If sdsu/smu/Fresno get added it’s only bc other schools leave.

The PAC has a lot of work to do.

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According to Monty Show today...they heard the Kliacough..cough..cough... is trying to get monitized in the Tier 3 world so they get more money to make up the Tier 1 numbers. Will see. Personally I only see SDSU as the add with SMU looking in from the outside. There is just not enough money to go around with two adds.  Fresno wants B12 instead because it more in that realm of academics that relates to their schools ideals.

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On 4/28/2023 at 2:47 AM, smithy said:

According to Monty Show today...they heard the Kliacough..cough..cough... is trying to get monitized in the Tier 3 world so they get more money to make up the Tier 1 numbers. Will see. Personally I only see SDSU as the add with SMU looking in from the outside. There is just not enough money to go around with two adds.  Fresno wants B12 instead because it more in that realm of academics that relates to their schools ideals.

The academic angle isn’t nearly as important as some suggest.  The two worlds can operate independently.  No G5 is going to big12, it’s just not possible at this point.  Tier 3 also isn’t a thing in the era of streaming.

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This isn't a coincidence. 

 

 

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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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Last night's NFL first found had 9 B1G players and 9 SEC players selected.  The remaining G8 combined had 13.  Of those 13, the outbounds (USC, UCLA, UT and OU) accounted for 3 of the picks, and two schools that will leave as soon as they have a P2 offer (Oregon & Clemson) accounted for another 3.  Ohio State and Alabama accounted for a total of 6 by themselves.  

If anyone thinks there is still such a thing as P5/G5, they're being deeply delusional.  There is P2 and G8 with some marginal stratification within the G8.

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On 4/28/2023 at 10:26 AM, RebelAlliance said:

Last night's NFL first found had 9 B1G players and 9 SEC players selected.  The remaining G8 combined had 13.  Of those 13, the outbounds (USC, UCLA, UT and OU) accounted for 3 of the picks, and two schools that will leave as soon as they have a P2 offer (Oregon & Clemson) accounted for another 3.  Ohio State and Alabama accounted for a total of 6 by themselves.  

If anyone thinks there is still such a thing as P5/G5, they're being deeply delusional.  There is P2 and G8 with some marginal stratification within the G8.

Clemson isnt going anywhere for a decade+.  And no one denies the Big 10 and SEC have the best talent. Or rather, a handful of schools in each do.  Like OSU and Alabama.

And no, its not P2/G8.  The money gap may be widening (bigly), but P12/ACC/B12 still retain all their power codified in NCAA rules.  If you want to go 2/3/5, that would be more accurate, cuz the gap between P12/ACC/B12 and the G5 is widening as well.

It gives me a headache just trying to think down to your level

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The Pac10

 

:sh*tfan:

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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On 4/28/2023 at 8:26 AM, RebelAlliance said:

Last night's NFL first found had 9 B1G players and 9 SEC players selected.  The remaining G8 combined had 13.  Of those 13, the outbounds (USC, UCLA, UT and OU) accounted for 3 of the picks, and two schools that will leave as soon as they have a P2 offer (Oregon & Clemson) accounted for another 3.  Ohio State and Alabama accounted for a total of 6 by themselves.  

If anyone thinks there is still such a thing as P5/G5, they're being deeply delusional.  There is P2 and G8 with some marginal stratification within the G8.

The past 5 years of first rounders from the SEC and (to a lesser extent) the Big Ten

2022- 21

2021- 19

2020- 20

2019- 16

2018- 14

 

The trend is that SEC has dominated the first round, and the Big Ten is typically behind them.  The last two years have seen drops in the ACC,PAC12 and Big 12, but the teams on the move were not the teams that were not hogging those picks either.  

 

So really it is the Big Ten taking more first rounders, mostly attributable to Ohio State's shift to a highlight reel offensive scheme and the talent that flows there.

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On 4/28/2023 at 12:57 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

There’s been a little more excitement today from people that don’t tend to get excited about rumors, so I think something happened this week as it relates to the PAC media deal.  Grain of salt and obviously nobody cares what Ute or rsf think about the conjecture or who’s posting the rumors…

Looks like you do.

 

PotableSomberHammerkop-size_restricted.g

 

It gives me a headache just trying to think down to your level

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