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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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2 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

It's not a rain cloud. Just watching this as it plays out and making an honest assessment. 

I think a lot of fans are not seeing this for what it is.    It's a business.  It was always a business but because of the NCAA everyone sort of pretended it wasn't. 

NCAA control is gone and the gloves are off.  It will now be run exactly as every business is run... I think unprofitable divisions will be dropped... meaning why keep fielding a football team if it's not profitable?

These days the reason for a university to offer sports is to attract students... branding.  Some universities may decide that the cost to carry sports isn't needed to attract students.

Here's an example... SDSU is/has been in the top 10 most applied to schools in the nation.  Will that change if they don't offer football or sports in general? Doubtful. 

All one needs to look at is the enrollment at LBSU to confirm.  they don't have football and students still apply there in great numbers.

Am I wrong?  Could be.

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2 minutes ago, Someone Else said:

I think a lot of fans are not seeing this for what it is.    It's a business.  It was always a business but because of the NCAA everyone sort of pretended it wasn't. 

NCAA control is gone and the gloves are off.  It will now be run exactly as every business is run... I think unprofitable divisions will be dropped... meaning why keep fielding a football team if it's not profitable?

These days the reason for a university to offer sports is to attract students... branding.  Some universities may decide that the cost to carry sports isn't needed to attract students.

Here's an example... SDSU is/has been in the top 10 most applied to schools in the nation.  Will that change if they don't offer football or sports in general? Doubtful. 

All one needs to look at is the enrollment at LBSU to confirm.  they don't have football and students still apply there in great numbers.

Am I wrong?  Could be.

Big West has a spot open for SDSU if they want to drop Football.  I will notify Big-12/PAC-12 not to consider SDSU anymore because they are scared to play at the highest level in Football.  How can the city of San Diego compete with places like Manhattan Kansas in this new NIL ERA?  It isn't possible.

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2 hours ago, 1IvyDog said:

The top 6 conference winners are autobid.

If there are numerous realignments, it’s very likely the playoff scenarios will also change. If there’s a P4 they may get 8 berths with four wild cards. The wild cards don’t have to be G5 teams. 

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3 minutes ago, Someone Else said:

I think a lot of fans are not seeing this for what it is.    It's a business.  It was always a business but because of the NCAA everyone sort of pretended it wasn't. 

NCAA control is gone and the gloves are off.  It will now be run exactly as every business is run... I think unprofitable divisions will be dropped... meaning why keep fielding a football team if it's not profitable?

These days the reason for a university to offer sports is to attract students... branding.  Some universities may decide that the cost to carry sports isn't needed to attract students.

Here's an example... SDSU is/has been in the top 10 most applied to schools in the nation.  Will that change if they don't offer football or sports in general? Doubtful. 

All one needs to look at is the enrollment at LBSU to confirm.  they don't have football and students still apply there in great numbers.

Am I wrong?  Could be.

I think this varies by area of the country

west coast where football is not near as big as it once was what you are saying is almost certainly 100% true.....get to Texas and The South and you need some football  and D1-A and some winning to make things happen

Rust Belt in there too......the north east does not know what college football is for the most part, but they are a lot of private schoolers up there

plus California happens to have a lot of quality state schools that are in or near kick ass places to live...that helps....to I suspect the cost of living is making it harder for many students to fully take advantage of that

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1 minute ago, Someone Else said:

I think a lot of fans are not seeing this for what it is.    It's a business.  It was always a business but because of the NCAA everyone sort of pretended it wasn't. 

NCAA control is gone and the gloves are off.  It will now be run exactly as every business is run... I think unprofitable divisions will be dropped... meaning why keep fielding a football team if it's not profitable?

These days the reason for a university to offer sports is to attract students... branding.  Some universities may decide that the cost to carry sports isn't needed to attract students.

Here's an example... SDSU is/has been in the top 10 most applied to schools in the nation.  Will that change if they don't offer football or sports in general? Doubtful. 

All one needs to look at is the enrollment at LBSU to confirm.  they don't have football and students still apply there in great numbers.

Am I wrong?  Could be.

Great post. I could be wrong, too. There isn't any way to tell what the combined forces of the NCAA ceding its position, NIL, major realignment, etc. will all bring. It's unprecedented. But it seems to me that we are no longer pretending that college athletics — and specifically football — are anything other than what they are.

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1 minute ago, RebelRobert said:

Big West has a spot open for SDSU if they want to drop Football.  I will notify Big-12/PAC-12 not to consider SDSU anymore because they are scared to play at the highest level in Football.  How can the city of San Diego compete with places like Manhattan Kansas in this new NIL ERA?  It isn't possible.

@RR,

It's not what SDSU wants.  It's what they get.  Sure, if they get in with the big boys it's a win for them.  I'm talking about if they don't... I am looking at down the road decisions.  They've been trying to be part of the club for years.  This is it. Now. It's go time.  Whomever doesn't get in will be left our of the party for ever. 

I'm talking about their decision after they aren't invited to the party.

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1 hour ago, Ibanez said:

Not really.

 the PAC leftovers would be Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona State, And Utah. Perhaps two more or two less. Now they could just add the Big 12 schools and call it a day. Those schools will be Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and the three in Texas. I just don't see it.

The PAC will need to calm their pride and take some MWC schools And the Big 12 will take some AAC schools.

Saw a report yesterday and wish I copied it. BYU adds about +2 to a media contract. UCF and Cincinnati were -1.2. Boise State, SDSU, And USF were all in the -2's. After that their was a big drop off.  Not sure what the metrics were but the article made it clear, technically BYU is the only G5 school with any value. The interviews were with ESPN and a few more TV stat @Did I hear a WOOSH? @UofMTigers and the other AAC guys will argue against it but it is what it is. I'll try to find it. I do know it's the same website that the Big 12 was saying no one in the AAC was bringing eyes to the conference.

I've defended you in the past but you're off the rails pushing this breakup of the P12 scenario. Just stop already will ya?

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https://big12sports.com/news/2021/7/26/statement-from-the-big-12-conference.aspx

Statement from the Big 12 Conference - 7/26/2021 12:55:00 PM

Today the Big 12 Conference received notice from University of Oklahoma President Joe Harroz and University of Texas President Jay Hartzell that their universities do not intend to extend their Grant of Rights when the current agreement expires on June 30, 2025.
 
“Although our eight members are disappointed with the decisions of these two institutions, we recognize that intercollegiate athletics is experiencing rapid change and will most likely look much different in 2025 than it does currently,” stated Commissioner Bob Bowlsby.  “The Big 12 Conference will continue to support our member institutions’ efforts to graduate student-athletes, and compete for Big 12 and NCAA championships.   Like many others, we will use the next four years to fully assess what the landscape will look like in 2025 and beyond.  The remaining eight institutions will work together in a collaborative manner to thoughtfully and strategically position the Big 12 Conference for continued success, both athletically and academically, long into the future.”

https://big12sports.com/news/2021/7/26/statement-from-the-big-12-conference.aspx

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1 hour ago, NVGiant said:

I don't know how all this shakes out. But this isn't going to be good for most of the Mountain West schools, including Nevada. That much I know. Pretty tired of college athletics these days.

I couldn't agree more. The players getting endorsements is ridiculous. I was just talking with my brother about how great college football used to be. I liked when I knew who won the national title on New Year's day.

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1 minute ago, rebelcuff said:

I couldn't agree more. The players getting endorsements is ridiculous. I was just talking with my brother about how great college football used to be. I liked when I knew who won the national title on New Year's day.

Yeah it is tough to wait another week.

Players getting endorsements is great for UNLV.  Should help us surpass many of our peers.

I like to win.  This should help.

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38 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

It's not a rain cloud. Just watching this as it plays out and making an honest assessment. 

The only way that Nevada would be hurt is if the B-12 stays intact and takes 4 from the AAC and 3 from the MW. But even then they could become the flag ship of the MW. All other scenarios would benefit Nevada. It is almost assured that the B-12 will go to 16 because they are desperate to stay afloat, vulnerable form all direction and scared. If the B-12 goes west, Nevada will be taken. If they go east the AAC will be vulnerable to being raided by every other conference and probably dissolve leaving the MW as the best of the G-5. If BYU is left out they will be even more on an Island and could go back to the MW along with a remnant of the AAC. One other scenario that could possibly play-out would be for the P-12 to expand because they would be the smallest at 12 and could look at MW markets.

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51 minutes ago, RSF said:

Why the Big 10 isnt expanding.

 

 

Science.

 

 

https://frankthetank.org/

Thanks for the link. Frank the Tank remains the king of realignment columnists even though he weighs in pro bono.

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37 minutes ago, alum93 said:

Isn't there 65 P5 and 65 G5 schools more or less?  There are your 2 divisions of football.  Did anyone see this article in USAToday?  Alabama starting qb up to $1M already.  And G5 schools want to try and keep up with that arms race in football?  The gap is only going to grow.  Let the guys have basically the pro players at P5 played by athletes making hundreds of thousands of dollars,  then the G5 FBS (as it is currently know), then FCS below that.  The MWC/AAC/MAC/Sun Belt/CUSA/independents were already behind the 8 ball, and now you can pay players?  It is time to call it a day and separate, as the OU and Texas move is showing.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2021/07/21/saban-theres-no-precedent-for-the-consequences/47885689/

“I almost feel that anything that I say will probably be wrong because there’s no precedent for the consequences that some of the things that we are creating, even if they’re good opportunities,” the Alabama coach said Wednesday at Southeastern Conference media days. “There’s no precedent for the consequences that some of these things are going to create, whether they’re good or bad."

Saban figures he will have better handle a year from now on the effect of such changes on college football and the players.

Speaking to the Texas High School Coaches Association convention a day earlier, he said new starting quarterback Bryce Young is approaching $1 million in name, images and likeness money.

 
 

There are current g5 schools that are committed to being in the ‘have’ group.  

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The next generation cares a lot less about football. Fewer kids playing in HS. A slow fade has begun to a much lower level of popularity. There is a reason stadium size is getting smaller

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20 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

If there are numerous realignments, it’s very likely the playoff scenarios will also change. If there’s a P4 they may get 8 berths with four wild cards. The wild cards don’t have to be G5 teams. 

There will have to be a sense of fairness otherwise not enough conferences/ will sign off.  We know what the playoff is going to look like at the next stage.  It’s not changing because Oklahoma and Texas are moving conferences lol.

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15 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

I've defended you in the past but you're off the rails pushing this breakup of the P12 scenario. Just stop already will ya?

This isn't coming from me though. This is reliable people like Andy Staples.

The only thing I even leaked about this was USC and UCLA were talking to the B1G last year. That's it. The rest is info from what sports reporters are saying on Twitter.

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2 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

There will have to be a sense of fairness otherwise not enough conferences/ will sign off.  We know what the playoff is going to look like at the next stage.  It’s not changing because Oklahoma and Texas are moving conferences lol.

Well if a conference doesn't sign off what makes you think the Super Conferences won't tell them to go without? Congress probably won't step in to stop this....

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So the reports that OU and UT have informed the Big 12 that they plan to join the SEC are drawing inferences, right? Didn’t they only make the decision not to renew their GOR? Im not saying they haven’t made up their minds, but there is an important distinction between the two. By not “officially” announcing their intentions they still are ostensibly regular Big 12 members; meaning they can vote. I’m guessing the strategy is to wait it out and hope the remaining 8 schools get nervous and seek out ACC/B1G/Pac-12 invites and they can then get the 6 other votes needed to dissolve the conference so they can join the SEC without having to pay anything but their entry fee. 

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6 minutes ago, wolf from 73 said:

The only way that Nevada would be hurt is if the B-12 stays intact and takes 4 from the AAC and 3 from the MW. But even then they could become the flag ship of the MW. All other scenarios would benefit Nevada. It is almost assured that the B-12 will go to 16 because they are desperate to stay afloat, vulnerable form all direction and scared. If the B-12 goes west, Nevada will be taken. If they go east the AAC will be vulnerable to being raided by every other conference and probably dissolve leaving the MW as the best of the G-5. If BYU is left out they will be even more on an Island and could go back to the MW along with a remnant of the AAC.

You are forgetting the sunbelt.  They are at a minimum on equal footing to the MWC and have a better trajectory right now.  The aac isn’t dissolving, it’s an espn product.  At the end of realignment they will add the best remaining g5 schools from whatever conference.  They will still be strong at football and basketball even if they lost their top 2-3 programs.  

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2 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

This isn't coming from me though. This is reliable people like Andy Staples.

The only thing I even leaked about this was USC and UCLA were talking to the B1G last year. That's it. The rest is info from what sports reporters are saying on Twitter.

The pac 12 isn’t changing this go around.  They are just trying to survive; they don’t have the clout to raid anything right now.

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