Conference Realignment thread

[mysfit]

I don't think the B12 will exist after OU/TX leave.

Vultures are going to be picking over the bones heading to 4 mega conferences.

[wolf from 73]

6 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

It will not go well them playing this year in the Big 12.  I am sure they all will want it to be over as soon possible.  I am guessing they are likely gone by 2022/23 and gone for sure by the 2023/24 season.  Nobody will want to prolong this and the new Big 12 members are not going to want to wait to come on board.

Every additional year they play will drop their exit fee by about 20mil. I think they play 2 more years.

[RebelRobert]

1 minute ago, wolf from 73 said:

Every additional year they play will drop their exit fee by about 20mil. I think they play 2 more years.

I think they negotiate the exit fee down and leave as soon as possible.

[alum93]

2 minutes ago, wolf from 73 said:

Every additional year they play will drop their exit fee by about 20mil. I think they play 2 more years.

20M is peanuts compared to the revenue being discussed.  Saban said the Alabam qb is up to $1M by himself.  They will be playing in SEC in fall of 2022.

[Someone Else]

12 minutes ago, Den60 said:

College football will still be played in San Diego. There is no competition. We drew about 30K per game in the old stadium, which was a poor football venue. The new stadium will put people closer to the action so the experience will be a better one. Yeah, we may still be playing the same MWC foes and other G6 teams, but people will still to watch a football game and there is a reason whey we kept the stadium on the smaller side. It creates demand by limiting supply.

My take is that it will ultimately come down to broadcast revenue and how a school handles (helped or hurt by NIL).  Not about the 35k fans that want to watch football at the new stadium.  My opinion is for football to survive long term SDSU will either need to be in a better conference or the MWC will need to become a much stronger conference. (either is possible) 

No disrespect to any school but the SEC is going to take control of this and I am just not sure how important 'minor league' football will be to broadcasting companies.  

Again, I am just speculating like everyone else but I don't think college sports are going to handle NIL very well unless you are a big boy school.  I actually hope I am wrong.

[Someone]

3 minutes ago, wolf from 73 said:

Every additional year they play will drop their exit fee by about 20mil. I think they play 2 more years.

this is completely false

the exit fee is two years prior distributions it does not change with any length of time after notice of intent to leave

Texas and OU could play 12 more years in the Big 12 and the exit fee is 2 years prior conference distributions

https://static.big12sports.com/custompages/pdfs/handbook/bylaws.pdf

Buyout Amount. Any Withdrawing Member shall pay to the Conference a commitment buyout fee (the “Buyout Amount”) in an amount equal to the sum of the amount of distributions that otherwise would be paid to the Member during the final two years of
its membership in the Conference. The Withdrawing Member shall be deemed to have agreed to forfeit all distributions of any type that otherwise would have been made to the Withdrawing Member during the Interim Period (the “Distribution Withholding”) and the Conference shall not pay the Distribution Withholding to the Withdrawing Member. A Withdrawing Member agrees to pay to the Conference the amount by which the Buyout Amount exceeds the Distribution Withholding, with such payment to be made not later than the Effective Date.

[AztecMD]

5 minutes ago, mysfit said:

I don't think the B12 will exist after OU/TX leave.

Vultures are going to be picking over the bones heading to 4 mega conferences.

Sorry but this is a dumb take.  If the left overs had options they would have been there already which is exactly what Nebraska, Mizzou, Colorado, and aTm did.   You don’t suddenly become more attractive to the better leagues just because Texahoma leaves you for dead.  

[wolf from 73]

4 minutes ago, alum93 said:

20M is peanuts compared to the revenue being discussed.  Saban said the Alabam qb is up to $1M by himself.  They will be playing in SEC in fall of 2022.

Yes it is for them but if you multiply that by four and throw in their tournament credits your talking over 100 mi each to leave right away. These schools are about making money not losing it.

[wolf from 73]

7 minutes ago, Someone said:

this is completely false

the exit fee is two years prior distributions it does not change with any length of time after notice of intent to leave

Texas and OU could play 12 more years in the Big 12 and the exit fee is 2 years prior conference distributions

https://static.big12sports.com/custompages/pdfs/handbook/bylaws.pdf

Buyout Amount. Any Withdrawing Member shall pay to the Conference a commitment buyout fee (the “Buyout Amount”) in an amount equal to the sum of the amount of distributions that otherwise would be paid to the Member during the final two years of
its membership in the Conference. The Withdrawing Member shall be deemed to have agreed to forfeit all distributions of any type that otherwise would have been made to the Withdrawing Member during the Interim Period (the “Distribution Withholding”) and the Conference shall not pay the Distribution Withholding to the Withdrawing Member. A Withdrawing Member agrees to pay to the Conference the amount by which the Buyout Amount exceeds the Distribution Withholding, with such payment to be made not later than the Effective Date.

If that is the case then the number that I'm hearing is about 80 mil and that won't change so they would have to playout the remainder of the contract to avoid that. Or renegotiate after a year or so which would be the most likely scenario.

[RebelRobert]

Oklahoma State President Dr. Kayse Shrum issues a statement 

[VandalPride97]

1 hour ago, RebelRobert said:

Don't worry MWC fans.  Craig is running things!

Looks like Hair's sphincter is wound as tight as a snare drum.  Everything about this post suggests a sense of desperation in the MWC headquarters.

[Someone]

22 minutes ago, wolf from 73 said:

If that is the case then the number that I'm hearing is about 80 mil and that won't change so they would have to playout the remainder of the contract to avoid that. Or renegotiate after a year or so which would be the most likely scenario.

even if they play out the remainder of the media rights deal and the end of the GOR they still do not avoid the exit fees 

if they leave at the end of 2024-25 when the media rights deal and the GOR end the Big 12 will still have a final year of distributions that will be given out 6 months later that they will withold

and as the contract states the member that is leaving will also need to write a check for an amount equal to the 2023-24 distributions

the exit fee is two prior years distributions it does not matter how long they stay or what happens to the GOR or media rights deal

[RebelRobert]

 

[SalinasSpartan]

38 minutes ago, Someone said:

the exit fee is two years prior distributions

it does not change because the GOR ends it is what it is

the only way the exit fee would go down is if Texas and OU were in the conference for a year or longer with a weaker media rights deal that pays a lot less and the conference distributions go down

there is no "three year notification" and they "play two and pay something"

the exit fee to leave before 99 years from 2012 is 2 years prior distributions

 

as to the comment about universities filled with smart people some that went to law school or that teach law school......well universities use outside counsel for stuff like this.....and a lot law professors are really crappy lawyers

and the wording in the contract is not about "an offer" it is about any contact of any type at all....it is almost like a conference that had just lost 4 members and added two wanted to make it much harder to leave after they got back to 10 members and got their new media deals in place

No, just no. The bolded part you quoted specifically mentioned a third party offering for a member to leave or inducing members to leave, it definitely did NOT prohibit “any contact at all”. Like I said, I’m sure the documented conversation was kept very vague so that a reasonable person would not be certain the SEC was inducing OU/UT to join. As to undocumented verbal conversations where no record exists of what was discussed? Who knows what came up.
 

Also, I wasn’t talking about schools consulting with law professors, so I’m not even sure what you are going on about there. What I actually said was some of the high level employees at universities and conferences went to law school; so in addition to these institutions employing lawyers they are also staffed with some people with legal backgrounds, even if they aren’t practicing attorneys. 

[Billings]

8 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I'm sure UCF, Cincy, and Houston are gonna be fine  USF, Memphis and probably SMU. The others? Don't know. But if the Big 12 teams were smart they would stick together and get the money.

 

Short term gain versus long term security in a crazy world.  Tough choices.

[Aztec1984]

55 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

If Craig Thompson could pull off Gonzaga, a few Big-12 leftovers and a Houston/SMU he could change his legacy real quick.

Decimate wherever BYU currently plays and don't invite them to the MWC.

Why in the world would Gonzaga leave? They get whatever they want from the WCC. They leveraged the MWC to do just that. Now, if the Big-12 looks to the west (adding BYU and two or three MWC teams) they could work a deal with Air Force Football only with Gonzaga with all their sports.

[Someone]

5 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

No, just no. The bolded part you quoted specifically mentioned a third party offering for a member to leave or inducing members to leave, it definitely did NOT prohibit “any contact at all”. Like I said, I’m sure the documented conversation was kept very vague so that a reasonable person would not be certain the SEC was inducing OU/UT to join. As to undocumented verbal conversations where no record exists of what was discussed? Who knows what came up.
 

Also, I wasn’t talking about schools consulting with law professors, so I’m not even sure what you are going on about there. What I actually said was some of the high level employees at universities and conferences went to law school; so in addition to these institutions employing lawyers they are also staffed with some people with legal backgrounds, even if they aren’t practicing attorneys. 

a "third party" in the case of that contract means ANYONE

I am not sure why that is so hard to grasp

it is very simple to understand....if any member of the Big 12 has conversations with anyone else (be it a conference, a consultant, a media company. a BOR member of a team in another conference, another university preesident ect) about leaving the Big 12 they are required to inform the Big 12

failing to do so means you can lose your voting rights in the conference

[RebelRobert]

6 minutes ago, Aztec1984 said:

Why in the world would Gonzaga leave? They get whatever they want from the WCC. They leveraged the MWC to do just that. Now, if the Big-12 looks to the west (adding BYU and two or three MWC teams) they could work a deal with Air Force Football only with Gonzaga with all their sports.

If MWC landed Gonzaga, a few Big 12 leftovers (Kansas/OK ST/TT/Baylor) and say a Houston or TCU we could definitely improve our TV contract.

If we can offer Gonzaga more money and games against Kansas/UNLV/OK State/SDSU/TT/New Mexico/Baylor and a Houston or TCU etc. why would they not come?

It is about money, if we can offer more we can get whoever we want.

Not saying it will happen or that I even think it is likely, just that Craig Thompson would be a hero if he could pull it off. Hypothetically.

[Aztec1984]

54 minutes ago, Someone Else said:

My take is that it will ultimately come down to broadcast revenue and how a school handles (helped or hurt by NIL).  Not about the 35k fans that want to watch football at the new stadium.  My opinion is for football to survive long term SDSU will either need to be in a better conference or the MWC will need to become a much stronger conference. (either is possible) 

No disrespect to any school but the SEC is going to take control of this and I am just not sure how important 'minor league' football will be to broadcasting companies.  

Again, I am just speculating like everyone else but I don't think college sports are going to handle NIL very well unless you are a big boy school.  I actually hope I am wrong.

One advantage to being on the West Coast is less competition for TV slots. I don't see the SEC having games start at 10PM so there will be a market. We already know we are a step below a P5 conference member and a giant step below the 10 or so teams that actually have a shot at the NC.

SDSU is not building a stadium to try to get a P5 invite, they are building it to keep the football program. Still, the entire MV expansion is a $3B project, not just a football stadium, which could lead SDSU to a 50K student population. There are still going to be kids that don't get paid to play sports and they are going to still go to schools to get playing time, not to just sit on the bench. And, the stadium is only used for some 6 Aztec games per year. We will still get a bowl game and we still have prospects of getting a MSL team. There are other options for generating income from the facility as well. It will be the best venue for football and soccer in the 7th largest city in the US.

[Someone]

8 minutes ago, Aztec1984 said:

One advantage to being on the West Coast is less competition for TV slots. I don't see the SEC having games start at 10PM so there will be a market. We already know we are a step below a P5 conference member and a giant step below the 10 or so teams that actually have a shot at the NC.

SDSU is not building a stadium to try to get a P5 invite, they are building it to keep the football program. Still, the entire MV expansion is a $3B project, not just a football stadium, which could lead SDSU to a 50K student population. There are still going to be kids that don't get paid to play sports and they are going to still go to schools to get playing time, not to just sit on the bench. And, the stadium is only used for some 6 Aztec games per year. We will still get a bowl game and we still have prospects of getting a MSL team. There are other options for generating income from the facility as well. It will be the best venue for football and soccer in the 7th largest city in the US.

if they can get it done sooner than later when the covid is gone and things really open up there is going to be a massive backlog or bands looking to tour and needing venues

should jack the prices for that type of facility rental sky high.....all the more so in San Diego where the weather outdoors is pretty damn good most of the year....then you just bend the concert goers over on parking and with the raw land to park cars.....pack em on in