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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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5 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

So there were some fireworks at the meeting afterall: numbers came in and there’s four schools that won’t agree to them.  Weird times all the way around.

Yes. We all saw the tweet from ' The Monty Show'... 

Whether it's true or not is a completely different story.

We shall see...

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On 1/31/2023 at 12:11 AM, Someone Else said:

Yes. We all saw the tweet from ' The Monty Show'... 

Whether it's true or not is a completely different story.

We shall see...

I didn’t see any mention here about that.  What did they say? Did they give actual numbers? I heard the numbers were pretty solid but don’t know what that means.

Was told the schools and am half surprised at who balked.  That was perhaps the most interesting part.  

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I don't know if it's from that Monty whatever show (don't have twitter) but the teams I heard that balked were Oregon, Washington and the Arizonas. Just more bickering and back and forth showing that the conference is not at all stable. Way to many schools with different agendas.

All the SMU talk makes little sense to me as well, I personally like UNLV over SMU for a few reasons. Primarily UNLV has all the tools to succeed (facilities, location ex.) they just need to start winning which has been their biggest hurdle. Just feel they have alot more potential/upside when compared to SMU.

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On 1/31/2023 at 2:50 AM, utgrizfan said:

I don't know if it's from that Monty whatever show (don't have twitter) but the teams I heard that balked were Oregon, Washington and the Arizonas. Just more bickering and back and forth showing that the conference is not at all stable. Way to many schools with different agendas.

All the SMU talk makes little sense to me as well, I personally like UNLV over SMU for a few reasons. Primarily UNLV has all the tools to succeed (facilities, location ex.) they just need to start winning which has been their biggest hurdle. Just feel they have alot more potential/upside when compared to SMU.

I too like UNLV.  The PAC should add them immediately.

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On 1/31/2023 at 4:50 AM, utgrizfan said:

I don't know if it's from that Monty whatever show (don't have twitter) but the teams I heard that balked were Oregon, Washington and the Arizonas. Just more bickering and back and forth showing that the conference is not at all stable. Way to many schools with different agendas.

All the SMU talk makes little sense to me as well, I personally like UNLV over SMU for a few reasons. Primarily UNLV has all the tools to succeed (facilities, location ex.) they just need to start winning which has been their biggest hurdle. Just feel they have alot more potential/upside when compared to SMU.

I think the looming question is how many additions can the PAC afford? Over the course of the desired 7 year contract each addition will cost approximately 155 million dollars.  That’s more than the entirety of the remaining MWC media deal, for just one school.  

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The real question is, if these schools are actually refusing to sign, what option do they all actually have??

Oregon and UW are the strongest candidates from a media standpoint so if the B10 doesn't currently want them then where are they gonna go??  Their options are the nB12, the MW, or what???

So even if they are upset they kinda have to stick together until such time as the B10 decides to expand again.

that's my opinion anyway.

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On 1/31/2023 at 4:41 AM, Someone Else said:

The real question is, if these schools are actually refusing to sign, what option do they all actually have??

Oregon and UW are the strongest candidates from a media standpoint so if the B10 doesn't currently want them then where are they gonna go??  Their options are the nB12, the MW, or what???

So even if they are upset they kinda have to stick together until such time as the B10 decides to expand again.

that's my opinion anyway.

All four could jump to the Big 12 which would induce Utah and Colorado follow.  Congratulations to the Big 18.  The Pac would be down to Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State, which would commence dismantling the MWC to backfill.  Some of us would be left behind and find ourselves well and truly screwed.  *Sigh*

Hang on to your seats folks.

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On 1/31/2023 at 5:37 AM, AztecSU said:

Sorry but this reminds me of when that UofA podcaster started the 4 corners rumors back in the summer that were clearly bs lol.

Yes, the report that the Pac deal is only $25 million per school and that some are refusing to accept it could be pure BS.  And even if it’s not, the scenario I described is still only a possibility.  I just won’t be surprised if it comes to pass.  In conference realignment, once a tipping point is reached a lot can happen very fast.  Those who aren’t preparing for every contingency are the most likely to get burned.

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On 1/31/2023 at 7:30 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

All four could jump to the Big 12 which would induce Utah and Colorado follow.  Congratulations to the Big 18.  The Pac would be down to Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State, which would commence dismantling the MWC to backfill.  Some of us would be left behind and find ourselves well and truly screwed.  *Sigh*

Hang on to your seats folks.

 

As I once said to you on the csnbbs board, if the MWC is gutted then we might as well take the leftovers :ph34r: Depending on who they are, of course.  

Truly screwed would mean you don't have a home.  Everybody here will find one.

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On 1/31/2023 at 6:41 AM, Someone Else said:

The real question is, if these schools are actually refusing to sign, what option do they all actually have??

Oregon and UW are the strongest candidates from a media standpoint so if the B10 doesn't currently want them then where are they gonna go??  Their options are the nB12, the MW, or what???

So even if they are upset they kinda have to stick together until such time as the B10 decides to expand again.

that's my opinion anyway.

 

Your opinion is valid.

I'd like to add that desperation can cause otherwise rational folks to do insane things.  What other option is there?  They might be delusional enough to consider independence.  

 

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Seems like a lot of Big12 fans felt a cetain kind of way about ESPN+ last night and the KSU v KU game. One thing this formerly 10 team conference is going to realize is those are only going to increase on the FB side with more content. Hopefully the newbies absorb most of the selections for the 8 already in. 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, HawaiiMongoose said:

All four could jump to the Big 12 which would induce Utah and Colorado follow.  Congratulations to the Big 18.  The Pac would be down to Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State, which would commence dismantling the MWC to backfill.  Some of us would be left behind and find ourselves well and truly screwed.  *Sigh*

Hang on to your seats folks.

So the nB12 is going to take 6 new schools? Doubtful.  

Oregon & UW hold all the cards from a media standpoint.  Would they jump to the nB12 for 6-8 years for an extra 5-7 mil per year?  I suppose they could but I'm not seeing it.  

A more intriguing possibility would be Oregon & Washington forming a new conference with the best available 8 schools between the nB12 & what's left of the P12.  From a media stand point (money standpoint) beyond the B10 that's their best option.  How possible that is, is another thing.

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On 1/31/2023 at 8:30 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

All four could jump to the Big 12 which would induce Utah and Colorado follow.  Congratulations to the Big 18.  The Pac would be down to Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State, which would commence dismantling the MWC to backfill.  Some of us would be left behind and find ourselves well and truly screwed.  *Sigh*

Hang on to your seats folks.

If this scenario occurs (taking into account it is merely one of many possibilities) I think the MWC would survive they'd just have to dip into the FCS ranks as well. Plenty of FCS schools around I'm sure they could entice moving up:

NEW PAC10: Cal, Stanford, Wazzu, Oregon State, Boise State, FSU, SDSU, UNLV, Hawaii, Colorado State

STATES: (CA, WA, OR, ID, NV, CO, HI)

Other possible additions: Nevada, AF (football only) 

This could leave the MWC with 6 schools which they could then backfill with some CUSA and FCS, I feel they'd lose their ability to poach from the AAC.

NEW MWC: SJSU, Wyoming, USU, UNM, AF, Nevada, UTEP, NMSU, Montana, MSU

STATES: (CA, MT, NV, UT, WYO, CO, NM, TX)

Other possible additions: NDSU, SDSU, Idaho, Sac State, UC-Davis

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On 1/31/2023 at 11:13 AM, AztecSU said:

Seems like a lot of Big12 fans felt a cetain kind of way about ESPN+ last night and the KSU v KU game. One thing this formerly 10 team conference is going to realize is those are only going to increase on the FB side with more content. Hopefully the newbies absorb most of the selections for the 8 already in. 

Not by a lot...depending on the number of Fox/ESPN games there are under the new deal (and that hasn't been made public).  Last year there were 17 games on ESPN+, 27 games on Fox networks, and 23 on Disney.  67 games.  With 12 teams that will, on average, work out to 72 games (6 per team).  Assuming somewhat less access on linear networks, each team is probably looking at 2 games a year on ESPN+, some perhaps with 3.  And a lot of those will probably be OOC.  For instance, in 2024 UCF has games with New Hampshire and Sam Houston.  Iowa State has North Dakota and Arky State.  Houston has an FCS game and UNLV.  Not an egregious scenario.  This year will be hard to predict since a) there's 14 teams and b) the conference is still working under the existing contract.  But an increase in streamed games will be probably be a logistical necessity.  Also a possibility more games will find their way to a soon-to-be-dead LHN.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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On 1/31/2023 at 9:40 AM, RSF said:

Not by a lot...depending on the number of Fox/ESPN games there are under the new deal (and that hasn't been made public).  Last year there were 17 games on ESPN+, 27 games on Fox networks, and 23 on Disney.  67 games.  With 12 teams that will, on average, work out to 72 games (6 per team).  Assuming somewhat less access on linear networks, each team is probably looking at 2 games a year on ESPN+, some perhaps with 3.  And a lot of those will probably be OOC.  Not an egregious scenario.  This year will be hard to predict since a) there's 14 teams and b) the conference is still working under the existing contract.  But an increase in streamed games will be probably be a logistical necessity.  Also a possibility more games will find their way to a soon-to-be-dead LHN.

Yeah, I dont think it wilk be dramatic but it will be a little different. It also maybe hints that going too big if you aren't the P2 can be an issue if networks are prioritizing the B10 and SEC. The selection process is normally at the start of the year, so when KU/KSU was selected for ESPN+ they may not have expected a top ranked match up. Either way there is clearly a balance between size and exposure, we'll see if the PAC has taken note or not. 

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On 1/31/2023 at 11:45 AM, AztecSU said:

Yeah, I dont think it wilk be dramatic but it will be a little different. It also maybe hints that going too big if you aren't the P2 can be an issue if networks are prioritizing the B10 and SEC. The selection process is normally at the start of the year, so when KU/KSU was selected for ESPN+ they may not have expected a top ranked match up. Either way there is clearly a balance between size and exposure, we'll see if the PAC has taken note or not. 

Yup...nobody saw KState coming.  They were picked 9th in the preseason poll.

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In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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On 1/31/2023 at 9:49 AM, RSF said:

Yup...nobody saw KState coming.  They were picked 9th in the preseason poll.

Ok, it did seem odd that a high ranked B12 matchup was streaming. But I also don't recall KState being this good ever. 

 

 

 

 

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On 1/31/2023 at 11:51 AM, AztecSU said:

Ok, it did seem odd that a high ranked B12 matchup was streaming. But I also don't recall KState being this good ever. 

They won the Big 12 in '19, and are regular NCAA tournament participants (including an Elite 8 appearance in '18).

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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