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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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On 8/31/2022 at 8:50 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Things are happening exactly the way they were layed out.  If you want answers to your questions read previous posts or go to Twitter, the Thamels and McMurphys are explaining the exact why right now.

An extension is best case scenario for the big 12 because it allows third partner (still hearing Amazon) to come in the equation for tier three, which will be significant with more inventory due to future additions.  
 

The Wilner spin is that he said the big12 couldn’t/wouldn’t open up negotiations and wouldn’t be allowed to discuss tangible numbers with potential new members.  Welp…here we are.  

So the question remains. Why have zero P12 schools made a B12 move? Isn’t this the time to strike?

Texas/OU and USC/UCLA all made moves before any TV contract was inked. Yet, somehow they knew what their payday would be beforehand.  I guess those conferences made calls to their potential TV partners about value scenarios.

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On 8/31/2022 at 11:02 AM, utenation said:

So the question remains. Why have zero P12 schools made a B12 move? Isn’t this the time to strike?

Texas/OU and USC/UCLA all made moves before any TV contract was inked. Yet, somehow they knew what their payday would be beforehand.  I guess those conferences made calls to their potential TV partners about value scenarios.

They will, you’re just being impatient.  The PAC schools have to be invited and some pac schools thought the BIG was swooping in to rescue them as recently as a week or two ago before the door shut on them.  In reality this is all moving quickly.  You’re trying to make me answer for Wilner nonsense when it’s been nonsense all along.  There have been back channel dealings leading up to now, Wilner was the one saying they couldn’t.  This formality just closes the door on the last straw in his grasp.  Also those schools probably didn’t know exact numbers either just that they were moving to the GD sec or big and knew their situation was vastly improving.

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On 8/31/2022 at 10:02 AM, utenation said:

So the question remains. Why have zero P12 schools made a B12 move? Isn’t this the time to strike?

Texas/OU and USC/UCLA all made moves before any TV contract was inked. Yet, somehow they knew what their payday would be beforehand.  I guess those conferences made calls to their potential TV partners about value scenarios.

OUT was well after the SEC had a new deal.  The reworked SEC/ESPN deal, adding the 3:30ET game of the week, was signed in 2020.  It just doesnt go into effect until 2024, when the CBS deal ends.

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On 8/31/2022 at 9:57 AM, RSF said:

OUT was well after the SEC had a new deal.  The reworked SEC/ESPN deal, adding the 3:30ET game of the week, was signed in 2020.  It just doesnt go into effect until 2024, when the CBS deal ends.

Yeah, fair enough.  I didn't follow details of that whole thing.  But I do know conferences don't have to wait around for "official" negotiations to begin before they play golf with potential TV  partners and ask about adding X,Y, Z teams.

Woosh's story keeps changing.  First, it was the B12 was much more valuable than the P12 with USC/UCLA. Next, it was the B12 is still much more valuable without those teams. After that, 6 P12 teams would be joining the B12 immediately, applications were sent out. 

Now we are waiting for Twitter rumors to come true apparently. 

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“For the television networks, the discussions do not affect the formal negotiating window in the contracts. If nothing happens from these conversations, the networks maintain the formal negotiating window in February 2024. This opening of discussions essentially gives Yormark and the conference's television partners two chances to engage.”
 

OMG! OMG! OMG!  This is such earth shattering news... it changes everything. OMG! OMG! OMG!

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On 8/31/2022 at 2:20 PM, Reverend said:

welp.

 

 

Legal semantics.  Neither side has to open the contractual window.  As has already been indicated.

 

On 8/31/2022 at 11:39 AM, Someone Else said:

“For the television networks, the discussions do not affect the formal negotiating window in the contracts. If nothing happens from these conversations, the networks maintain the formal negotiating window in February 2024. This opening of discussions essentially gives Yormark and the conference's television partners two chances to engage.”

 

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On 8/31/2022 at 8:02 AM, utenation said:

So the question remains. Why have zero P12 schools made a B12 move? Isn’t this the time to strike?

Texas/OU and USC/UCLA all made moves before any TV contract was inked. Yet, somehow they knew what their payday would be beforehand.  I guess those conferences made calls to their potential TV partners about value scenarios.

I don't care how the Pac's acolytes spin it, the rumors are too strong that Arizona would be fine leaving for the B12 and although SDSU has wanted to join the Pac since humans first stood upright, I've heard zero, zip, nada that anything more than informal discussions have transpired about that over the last 60 days. So as inept as the Pac leadership has been and still appears to be, I would only be mildly surprised to hear one of these days that both Arizona and SDSU will be joining the B12.

But, hey, maybe Cal can convince the other eight members to backfill with UC Davis!

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On 8/31/2022 at 3:06 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

I don't care how the Pac's acolytes spin it, the rumors are too strong that Arizona would be fine leaving for the B12 and although SDSU has wanted to join the Pac since humans first stood upright, I've heard zero, zip, nada that anything more than informal discussions have transpired about that over the last 60 days. So as inept as the Pac leadership has been and still appears to be, I would only be mildly surprised to hear one of these days that both Arizona and SDSU will be joining the B12.

But, hey, maybe Cal can convince the other eight members to backfill with UC Davis!

Like I said on the other thread, IMO, the only way the B12 will be able raid the rest of the PAC is if the B10 wasn't done poaching. That looks to be a dead deal.  If I'm wrong here, I'll own it. 

And you already know what I think of the SDSU add. 

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On 8/31/2022 at 3:20 PM, utenation said:

Like I said on the other thread, IMO, the only way the B12 will able raid the rest of the PAC is if the B10 wasn't done poaching. That looks to be a dead deal.  If I'm wrong here, I'll own it. 

And you already know what I think of the SDSU add. 

If nobody else leaves the PAC for the B1G, then there's no reason the PAC can't stick together with a good TV deal (not a great deal like the B1G or SEC, but at least comparable to the Big 12).  If there are lingering concerns that Washington/Oregon/Stanford/whoever will not be long for the league or they are demanding unequal revenue sharing, that might push others to strongly consider a new home in the Big 12.

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On 8/31/2022 at 2:20 PM, utenation said:

Like I said on the other thread, IMO, the only way the B12 will able raid the rest of the PAC is if the B10 wasn't done poaching. That looks to be a dead deal.  If I'm wrong here, I'll own it. 

And you already know what I think of the SDSU add. 

Appreciate it, brother. I'd always hoped SDSU could manage to follow Utah's lead and gain Pac membership and since we're apparently very close to doing so, it's very frustrating to have to be patient.

To your other point, the B1G seems uninterested in UW and UO. I understand UO because it's located in a very small city which is a good two hours from Portland which isn't that big itself. However, I don't understand why the B1G wouldn't want UW. Maybe because unlike UO, UW doesn't want the B1G?

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On 8/31/2022 at 3:45 PM, Pelado said:

If nobody else leaves the PAC for the B1G, then there's no reason the PAC can't stick together with a good TV deal (not a great deal like the B1G or SEC, but at least comparable to the Big 12).  If there are lingering concerns that Washington/Oregon/Stanford/whoever will not be long for the league or they are demanding unequal revenue sharing, that might push others to strongly consider a new home in the Big 12.

Last week I posted an interview with a P12 AD where he was asked about the unequal revenue issue. He said, that's never came up in their meetings.  I've also heard no other rumblings from school admin about the issue. I'm pretty sure this might be a show stopper for some schools in the conference.  I tend to rely more on info from ADs and presidents than from Twitter Rangers and message board "insiders". I personally think this is a dead issue. 

I also think both the P10 and B12 have a really good idea of what their next contracts will look like including the what if scenarios. If there was big incentive to move, I say why wait? Things can change very quickly and you need to handle your business as a conference.   I think both contracts will look similar on payout per school, which is why I think there's been no real news since USC/UCLA. The B12 exit fees are probably show stoppers, especially if the money is pretty equal.

Again, just my opinion.

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On 8/31/2022 at 12:10 PM, utenation said:

 

Woosh's story keeps changing.  First, it was the B12 was much more valuable than the P12 with USC/UCLA. Next, it was the B12 is still much more valuable without those teams. After that, 6 P12 teams would be joining the B12 immediately, applications were sent out. 

Your confusing me with someone else.  But , first one was never true.. second sentence is true, third seems like conjecture but I’m sure some schools like the 4 corners would be in the big 12 yesterday if they knew what they know today.  But that’s immaterial one way or the other nor does it discount anything else I actually said.

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On 8/31/2022 at 4:37 PM, utenation said:

Last week I posted an interview with a P12 AD where he was asked about the unequal revenue issue. He said, that's never came up in their meetings.  I've also heard no other rumblings from school admin about the issue. I'm pretty sure this might be a show stopper for some schools in the conference.  I tend to rely more on info from ADs and presidents than from Twitter Rangers and message board "insiders". I personally think this is a dead issue. 

I also think both the P10 and B12 have a really good idea of what their next contracts will look like including the what if scenarios. If there was big incentive to move, I say why wait? Things can change very quickly and you need to handle your business as a conference.   I think both contracts will look similar on payout per school, which is why I think there's been no real news since USC/UCLA. The B12 exit fees are probably show stoppers, especially if the money is pretty equal.

Again, just my opinion.

Not a bad question.  I don't think there's a big current incentive to move.  There's probably not much of a per-team difference between the following:

  • PAC 12 payout
  • NB12 payout
  • Proposed NB12 + 4 corners teams payout

While I think the 4 corners schools are the most likely of all PAC members to move to the Big 12, they likely prefer to stay in the PAC if it retains all its current members.  If the PAC loses one or more of Washington/Oregon/Stanford/whatever, then the PAC 12 payouts likely take a big hit and the proposed NB12 +4C payout starts looking a lot better in comparison.

If nobody else leaves for the B1G right away (which I think is most likely), then the PAC licks their USC/UCLA wounds, regroups, maybe adds SDSU, and does just fine with their media payout relative to the NB12 (though still significantly less than SEC/B1G).

Until the PAC has a new grant of rights in place to deter anyone from leaving to the B1G for a while, this will be an ongoing concern.

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On 7/5/2022 at 1:20 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

It appears that both Washington and Oregon are expected to apply for membership to the big 12 in addition to the 4-corners schools. 

So does the new Big 12 news about their TV deal mean this is happening?

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On 8/31/2022 at 5:03 PM, Pelado said:

Not a bad question.  I don't think there's a big current incentive to move.  There's probably not much of a per-team difference between the following:

  • PAC 12 payout
  • NB12 payout
  • Proposed NB12 + 4 corners teams payout

While I think the 4 corners schools are the most likely of all PAC members to move to the Big 12, they likely prefer to stay in the PAC if it retains all its current members.  If the PAC loses one or more of Washington/Oregon/Stanford/whatever, then the PAC 12 payouts likely take a big hit and the proposed NB12 +4C payout starts looking a lot better in comparison.

If nobody else leaves for the B1G right away (which I think is most likely), then the PAC licks their USC/UCLA wounds, regroups, maybe adds SDSU, and does just fine with their media payout relative to the NB12 (though still significantly less than SEC/B1G).

Until the PAC has a new grant of rights in place to deter anyone from leaving to the B1G for a while, this will be an ongoing concern.

Agree 100%. I don't think any logical P10 fan is expecting big numbers and I agree, the P10 is very exposed right now and GOR might be a show stopper for some schools, so I've heard. Kinda fragile is my guess.

Right after our media days, I posted some stuff from Mark Harlan. He was very positive on the outlook but he also made sure he covered his ass on more poaching from the two big conferences.  

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On 8/31/2022 at 6:33 PM, Swedish said:

I've been gone for months and don't really have the time to read 451 pages. What is the opinion of MW fans in adding Oregon State and Washington State? Would they increase our TV deal? I think they would be two great adds for the conference.

I’m sure @Did I hear a WOOSH? has a copy of his 15 page PowerPoint presentation he can show you. Complete with exact TV Contract numbers, who is going where, the exact market value of each school in FBS and in depth interviews he’s had with all ADs, Presidents and TV Network execs. 

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