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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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On 7/4/2022 at 1:11 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

This is a reasonable position.  There’s a couple writings-on-the-wall though.

While the big 10 is certainly interested in UNC and possibly UVA, they want into Florida first and foremost.

The PAC as we know it is dead, the four corners schools are going to apply for membership to big 12 this week.

Fox and espn benefit from the dissolution of the PAC.  More money available to streamlined content.  

What is speculated..

Oregon, Washington may or may not wait out the big ten or also apply for membership to big 12.

 The only way Stanford gets into big 10 is if ND makes it conditional to their addition. There is zero indication of interest on the ND end of taking that far or even the big 10 itself entertaining such conditions.

Stanford, for reasons beyond me, doesn’t seem to be a target of the big12 either way.  It reads as the 4-corners acquisition being much like the AAC-texas acquisition for competitive purposes.

The Big12 is more interested in ACC schools than a west coast presence, coupled with Arizona basketball interest from some to indicate that the big 12 may not even accept Oregon or Washington even if they do apply.  

ESPN may benefit more from the Big 12 falling apart, because then they could get OU and Texas to the SEC quicker and without having to pay exit fees.

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On 7/6/2022 at 12:20 AM, Mano said:

ESPN may benefit more from the Big 12 falling apart, because then they could get OU and Texas to the SEC quicker and without having to pay exit fees.

If FOX hadn’t very recently gone on record saying they looked forward to working with the new BIG12 commissioner on the next deal I’d find that to be a more plausible angle.  Will espn just let content walk to their main competitor to save a some buyout money on a much smaller scale than not having to pay the PAC at all while also decreasing their product further? I don’t find it likely but PAC diehards certainly hope so.

The point is moot because the exit fees are a school expense, nothing to do with espn or fox and the Big12 isn’t dissolving.  

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1 hour ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

We should hear more publicly tomorrow (today already on east coast?)

So it's happening tomorrow then, ehh? 

 

Okay, I'll check in then. Thanks for the clarification. Tomorrow for the big news!

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On 7/6/2022 at 2:47 AM, Someone Else said:

So it's happening tomorrow then, ehh? 

 

Okay, I'll check in then. Thanks for the clarification. Tomorrow for the big news!

I’m less confident about the timing about anything official today since Oregon and Washington recently developed but The Athletic and CBSsports picked up on it early this morning.  I can’t link Twitter but it’s out there.  Things are still moving fast even if there isn’t any formal action today. 
 

From athletic:


“The Big 12 has been given an unexpected opportunity to strengthen its position among the Power 5 conferences. Its new commissioner doesn’t want to waste it.

The league is having “serious” talks with six Pac-12 schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington — and is determined to move quickly, sources told The Athletic. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, hired just last week, has been described as “super aggressive” by one source and has the backing of the Big 12 presidents and chancellors to pursue the addition of Pac-12 members.

It’s unclear just how quickly the Big 12 could get a deal done on its expansion efforts, but those sources expressed optimism that Yormark can pull it off. CBS Sports first reported the Big 12 was in discussions about adding multiple Pac-12 schools.”

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On 7/5/2022 at 10:51 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

We should hear more publicly tomorrow (today already on east coast?)

I doubt it - even when the BigXII was expanding with expected and known programs it took 30+ days to work through it and for it to become “official”.  That would be unprecedented timing.  But hope I’m wrong!  😂 

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10 hours ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

We should hear more publicly tomorrow (today already on east coast?)

Look, I am being sarcastic with you.  I will stop.

What's evident from reading everything on this board and other places is everyone is guessing. There are multiple scenarios which may or may not happen.  Fans, you included, seem to gravitate to the news that supports their position or their team.  Anything can happen here and someone will likely be able to say they were 'right'.

My take from everything I am reading, and there are a lot of conflicting things to pick from, is that 6 teams from the Pac 12 will never join a nb12 conference that has 14 other members... no matter how aggressive the new b12 commissioner is it's simply not happening. Financially it makes zero sense.  Now if teams are somehow dropped from the nb12 then something may happen.

More likely the Pac 10 will stand pat and see how things develop going forward.

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On 7/6/2022 at 10:17 AM, Someone Else said:

Look, I am being sarcastic with you.  I will stop.

What's evident from reading everything on this board and other places is everyone is guessing. There are multiple scenarios which may or may not happen.  Fans, you included, seem to gravitate to the news that supports their position or their team.  Anything can happen here and someone will likely be able to say they were 'right'.

My take from everything I am reading, and there's a lot of conflicting things to pick from, is that 6 teams from the Pac 12 will never join a nb12 conference that has 14 other members... no matter how aggressive the new b12 commissioner is it's simply not happening. Financially it makes zero sense.  Now if teams are somehow dropped from the nb12 then something may happen.

More likely the Pac 10 will stand pat and see how things develop going forward.

Big 12 wont have 14 members by the time any further moves are made.

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On 7/6/2022 at 11:09 AM, NorCalCoug said:

I doubt it - even when the BigXII was expanding with expected and known programs it took 30+ days to work through it and for it to become “official”.  That would be unprecedented timing.  But hope I’m wrong!  😂 

Well I meant we would hear more publicly through credible media outlets about the six schools’ interest in moving to the big 12 today, which we did!

Some that don’t run off to social media every chance they get think the 4-corners schools sent their applications yesterday.  Things are definitely happening, you’re right though about the process.  And the PAC is trying its best with engaging media partners and more ‘alliances’.  The aac tried that too, so it’s all in the playbook.   I’m certain Oregon and Washington will let the PAC do what they can to try to make things whole.  

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On 7/6/2022 at 11:17 AM, Someone Else said:

Look, I am being sarcastic with you.  I will stop.

What's evident from reading everything on this board and other places is everyone is guessing. There are multiple scenarios which may or may not happen.  Fans, you included, seem to gravitate to the news that supports their position or their team.  Anything can happen here and someone will likely be able to say they were 'right'.

My take from everything I am reading, and there are a lot of conflicting things to pick from, is that 6 teams from the Pac 12 will never join a nb12 conference that has 14 other members... no matter how aggressive the new b12 commissioner is it's simply not happening. Financially it makes zero sense.  Now if teams are somehow dropped from the nb12 then something may happen.

More likely the Pac 10 will stand pat and see how things develop going forward.

I appreciate your respectful candor, but the PAC as you know it is dead.  Well, maybe on life support since they’ll all have to get along for the next two seasons together…we’ll call it comfort care.  Either way, it breaks your financial argument.  The PNW schools may squeak into the Big10 which would certainly make more sense financially for them but the BIG 12 is the clear best alternative.  The next pac tv contract will go down, the big12’s will go up, regardless of the future additions.  But yes, we’re all here for it together.

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9 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

I appreciate your respectful candor, but the PAC as you know it is dead.  Well, maybe on life support since they’ll all have to get along for the next two seasons together…we’ll call it comfort care.  Either way, it breaks your financial argument.  The PNW schools may squeak into the Big10 which would certainly make more sense financially for them but the BIG 12 is the clear best alternative.  The next pac tv contract will go down, the big12’s will go up, regardless of the future additions.  But yes, we’re all here for it together.

You aren't telling me anything I do not know.

All I am saying is that we are not going to see 6 P12 teams going to a 20 team nB12 conference. Makes zero financial sense. Any number of other things can and will happen.

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On 7/5/2022 at 9:00 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

The President of UCF is in a zoom meeting with other Big12 Presidents right now.  ‘Discussing options’

Option A;

We want this merger with the PAC and you are out. Here's a check for your cancellation fee.

Option B; See option A.

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Where it all Stands:

 

Notre Dame is the next Major Player. From what reports I read this morning, Independence is valuable to them right now. They are in the Cat Birds seat with Three Conferences and every Network with a Billion dollars  to throw around pursuing them. 

If ND stays in the ACC they get their lifeline and I believe Clemson/+1 stay put. 

ND and Clemson to the $EC would be the ultimate coup.

PAC will hold at 10 to see what their value is. If minimal, there's a mass Exodus

New12 wants to merge. YBU and UCF are deal killers.

Every G5 that thinks they're the "Little Engine that Could", is on Pof and Tinder trying desperately to dump their current girl friend.

Everything else is speculation.

 

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1 minute ago, Spaztecs said:

Where it all Stands:

 

Notre Dame is the next Major Player. From what reports I read this morning, Independence is valuable to them right now. They are in the Cat Birds seat with Three Conferences and every Network with a Billion dollars  to throw around pursuing them. 

If ND stays in the ACC they get their lifeline and I believe Clemson/+1 stay put. 

ND and Clemson to the $EC would be the ultimate coup.

PAC will hold at 10 to see what their value is. If minimal, there's a mass Exodus

New12 wants to merge. YBU and UCF are deal killers.

Every G5 that thinks they're the "Little Engine that Could", is on Pof and Tinder trying desperately to dump their current girl friend.

Everything else is speculation.

 

Only thing I will add to this is if none of the G5 get a call up from the minors on this round it will never happen and most will be doomed to a slow (or rapid) demise as revenue generated will never be enough to keep their athletic departments afloat.

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On 7/5/2022 at 10:51 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

We should hear more publicly tomorrow (today already on east coast?)

Still waiting for this. We gave up on the Memphis hoops financial report. 

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On 7/6/2022 at 12:13 PM, Someone Else said:

Only thing I will add to this is if none of the G5 get a call up from the minors on this round it will never happen and most will be doomed to a slow (or rapid) demise as revenue generated will never be enough to keep their athletic departments afloat.

I don't think so.  G5 schools will actually adjust athletic budgets now that they don't have to pretend to keep up with P5 teams.  Since 70+ teams will be left behind more or less,  there will be plenty of teams to form multiple conferences.  I can see a few dropping football down the road, but that should be minimal.  

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On 7/6/2022 at 12:13 PM, Someone Else said:

Only thing I will add to this is if none of the G5 get a call up from the minors on this round it will never happen and most will be doomed to a slow (or rapid) demise as revenue generated will never be enough to keep their athletic departments afloat.

I think most will be okay.

They have survived this long without big tv contracts. A few will struggle without their payday games. 

The FCS, D2 & D3 has survived.

Like the Big Boys, we will probably see a reshuffling of the G5 deck chairs and will have fewer G5 Conferences.

 

This is the downside of unfettered Capitalism.

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2 hours ago, Spaztecs said:

I think most will be okay.

They have survived this long without big tv contracts. A few will struggle without their payday games. 

The FCS, D2 & D3 has survived.

Like the Big Boys, we will probably see a reshuffling of the G5 deck chairs and will have fewer G5 Conferences.

 

This is the downside of unfettered Capitalism.

I am probably excessively pessimistic about this but because of realignment and NIL my feeling is many universities will gradually start realizing they will never keep up and don't really need football or sports.  They'll drop football and then other sports will become club teams thus relieving the university of the financial/legal responsibility of sports.

I've said this elsewhere but this could have been avoided if at the very beginning they (NCAA) stipulated that all money generated would be spread equally between all NCAA members... of course, that seems like  socialism and folks would have not been too excited about it... but it sure would have created a more even/fair structure.  Unfortunately, nobody asked me at the time... lol.

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