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Conference Realignment thread

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16 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

If a school wants to leave they can leave, nobody can stop them and it would take years in court to do so which nobody would do fighting a school that wants to be somewhere else.

If you are married and your spouse wants a divorce, no contract is going to stop it.  You can fight but you will lose.

You may lose the war but you can win a battle before you do. IIRC, the ACC got $31 million plus attorney's fees out of Maryland.

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4 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

+1

Not only will USC or UCLA to the B1G be implausible without "beam me up, Scotty" technology, neither school has a rivalry with any current B1G member. Not so of Colorado which has already gone from the Big 8 to the Big 12 to the Pac 12 thereby being about as faithful to its peers as Donald Trump has been to his wives.

Again, you take eight of the Pac-12 to have a western division. Purge four from the BIG. You end up with markets in LA, Bay Area, Most of Oregon, Seattle and then, potentially, Denver, SLC or Tucson. The Pac-12 and BIG have had a relationship via the Rose Bowl going back decades.

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1 minute ago, 818SUDSFan said:

You may lose the war but you can win a battle before you do. IIRC, the ACC got $31 million plus attorney's fees out of Maryland.

Hate to break the news to you but Maryland won in the end.  $31 million is pocket change when looking at the next 100 years

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I think it’s clear at this point that the next salvo will be fired by the B1G. If they decide to stand pat, the Big 12 will back-fill.

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Missouri to the b1G seems like the only reason for the b1G to pull the trigger.  No other action will move the needle enough for the B1G to take Kansas as 16.

EDIT https://www.secrant.com/rant/mizzou-sports/so-tejas-wants-to-join-the-sec/97349961/  There is Mizzou fan sentiment against Texas and in favor of B1G offer but they don't want to get their hopes up again.

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2 minutes ago, Aztec1984 said:

Again, you take eight of the Pac-12 to have a western division. Purge four from the BIG. You end up with markets in LA, Bay Area, Most of Oregon, Seattle and then, potentially, Denver, SLC or Tucson. The Pac-12 and BIG have had a relationship via the Rose Bowl going back decades.

The only way I see something like that happening is if the B1G, the P12/P8 and the SEC decide to secede from the NCAA and start their own version thereof. (The SEC would presumably try to steal Clemson, UNC, etc.)

Could that happen? Yes, in theory. However, a thermonuclear option like that would be so disruptive of American higher education that Congress would step in to stop it.

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3 minutes ago, bornsilverandblue said:

I think it’s clear at this point that the next salvo will be fired by the B1G. If they decide to stand pat, the Big 12 will back-fill.

Exactly.  Big-12 schools are all scrambling and praying that somebody will want them.  The answer will probably be that nobody does (Kansas maybe/OK St. maybe)

Once Big-12 schools realize their place in the food chain they will need to back-fill with a few schools (MWC should have great shot at raiding AAC here).

BIG TEN/PAC-12 Merger (PAC-12 Wing) will likely happen at some point so Big-12 may think twice about inviting BYU (who can't play nice with others) or lowlife Cincinnati.  Might want to wait to try to merge with whatever is leftover from PAC-12 and the best of the MWC/AAC.

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Just now, Bruininthebay said:

Missouri to the b1G seems like the only reason for the b1G to pull the trigger.  No other action will move the needle enough for the B1G to take Kansas as 16.

For what it’s worth, this is from a friend who works for OSU, on the academia side: “I dunno, people around here would want the Big Ten to respond to any expansion by the SEC”

He mentioned Stanford specifically. My own likely candidates are 2 of Kansas, Colorado, and USC, and USC/UCLA tandem. MAYBE Iowa St., if Iowa decides not to cock-block them.

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3 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

Missouri to the b1G seems like the only reason for the b1G to pull the trigger.  No other action will move the needle enough for the B1G to take Kansas as 16.

Doubtful. Mizzou already got out its kneepads for the B1G a little over a decade ago and was rebuffed and the Tigers haven't accomplished much since in football.

I'll add that those who say this may all become a large nothing burger if the B1G doesn't overturn another domino after UT and OU leave the B12 are likely to be correct, but only in the short term.

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5 minutes ago, bornsilverandblue said:

For what it’s worth, this is from a friend who works for OSU, on the academia side: “I dunno, people around here would want the Big Ten to respond to any expansion by the SEC”

He mentioned Stanford specifically. My own likely candidates are 2 of Kansas, Colorado, and USC, and USC/UCLA tandem. MAYBE Iowa St., if Iowa decides not to cock-block them.

I agree that midwest administrations need to respond.  I did some googling and found Mizzou fan sentiment is against Texas and curious about a B1G invite  https://www.secrant.com/rant/mizzou-sports/so-tejas-wants-to-join-the-sec/97349961/

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3 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

Exactly.  Big-12 schools are all scrambling and praying that somebody will want them.  The answer will probably be that nobody does (Kansas maybe/OK St. maybe)

Once Big-12 schools realize their place in the food chain they will need to back-fill with a few schools (MWC should have great shot at raiding AAC here).

BIG TEN/PAC-12 Merger (PAC-12 Wing) will likely happen at some point so Big-12 may think twice about inviting BYU (who can't play nice with others) or lowlife Cincinnati.  Might want to wait to try to merge with whatever is leftover from PAC-12 and the best of the MWC/AAC.

For once, I actually agree with your 2nd paragraph.

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2 minutes ago, bornsilverandblue said:

For what it’s worth, this is from a friend who works for OSU, on the academia side: “I dunno, people around here would want the Big Ten to respond to any expansion by the SEC”

He mentioned Stanford specifically. My own likely candidates are 2 of Kansas, Colorado, and USC, and USC/UCLA tandem. MAYBE Iowa St., if Iowa decides not to cock-block them.

If/when BIG Ten goes west they will take a PACIFIC WING of teams.  Think the big cities - USC/UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona St/Colorado.

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18 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

The only way I see something like that happening is if the B1G, the P12/P8 and the SEC decide to secede from the NCAA and start their own version thereof. (The SEC would presumably try to steal Clemson, UNC, etc.)

Could that happen? Yes, in theory. However, a thermonuclear option like that would be so disruptive of American higher education that Congress would step in to stop it.

Oops, my math is off. Purge two, move two into the west (so, you keep Nebraska for that) and you have a 20 team conference. The rumors are that the SEC TV is going to be huge. How does the BIG and PAC answer? By monopolizing the west they would have a real national conference.

West: WA, OR, Stanford, CAL, USC,

Mid: CU, UT, UCLA, NB, IA?

Northwest: MN, WI, IL, NW, PU

Northeast: OSU, MI, PSU, IA, MSU

Eventually, I do think football separates from the NCAA. I wish that happened years ago.

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14 minutes ago, bornsilverandblue said:

For what it’s worth, this is from a friend who works for OSU, on the academia side: “I dunno, people around here would want the Big Ten to respond to any expansion by the SEC”

He mentioned Stanford specifically. My own likely candidates are 2 of Kansas, Colorado, and USC, and USC/UCLA tandem. MAYBE Iowa St., if Iowa decides not to cock-block them.

If SDSU is any indication, Joe or Joanne Average Faculty Member cares a lot more about academics than athletics. When SDSU appeared headed to the Big East as it was then composed, the faculty senate was giddy not about the impact on the school's football program but about the increased potential to engage in research with their peers at schools like Pitt, Rutgers and Syracuse. Maybe Ohio State is an outlier?

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1 minute ago, RebelRobert said:

If/when BIG Ten goes west they will take a PACIFIC WING of teams.  Think the big cities - USC/UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona St/Colorado.

The only time the Big Ten expanded aggressively was with Maryland/Rutgers. 2 schools to get to 16 while attempting to preserve rivalries is much more likely. And fwiw, I could also see the Pac-12 simply eliminating divisions and standing pat at 10 if USC/UCLA goes. There’s also the possibility that WVU finally has enough votes for ACC acceptance. Then ND agrees to join when their TV contract is up, and the ACC is at a surprisingly stable 16.

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1 minute ago, bornsilverandblue said:

The only time the Big Ten expanded aggressively was with Maryland/Rutgers. 2 schools to get to 16 while attempting to preserve rivalries is much more likely. And fwiw, I could also see the Pac-12 simply eliminating divisions and standing pat at 10 if USC/UCLA goes. There’s also the possibility that WVU finally has enough votes for ACC acceptance. Then ND agrees to join when their TV contract is up, and the ACC is at a surprisingly stable 16.

I believe that the BIG would like to get only USC/UCLA.

I don't believe that USC/UCLA will go unless they get an entire Pacific Wing.

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Just now, RebelRobert said:

I believe that the BIG would like to get only USC/UCLA.

I don't believe that USC/UCLA will go unless they get an entire Pacific Wing.

This is the game: there’s nothing forcing their expansion, except their own need to counter the SEC. There’s also nothing saying it has to be USC/UCLA. Which means USC can’t overplay their hand.

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5 minutes ago, bornsilverandblue said:

This is the game: there’s nothing forcing their expansion, except their own need to counter the SEC. There’s also nothing saying it has to be USC/UCLA. Which means USC can’t overplay their hand.

Exactly.  Big Ten has shown before they are willing to play the long game to get who they really want (Notre Dame/USC/North Carolina) and the way you do that is by slowly diluting the conference that they currently participate in and taking away their rivals/major markets.

SEC/BIG did this exact thing to Texas/OU over time (Arkansas/Nebraska/A&M/Missouri).

If USC won't play ball.  Hit them where it hurts.

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58 minutes ago, southfresno said:

Because there are other schools whom you favor? I really don't see the big 12 going west. 

If Texas and OU are know longer in the Big, 12 the Big be in a survival mode.  What things will they be trying to keep as much as possible?  TV contracts, Bowls tie-ins contracts, keep separations from the G5 conferences, and add back some big attendance revenue games (no longer having Texas & OU).  So who to add?  I'm sure they would love to add other P5 schools, but that is not going to happen.  So who would be the next best option?  Schools with good fan bases who will travel, providing home attendance to Big 12 teams and bowl games.  Schools with media worth to help with their TV contract,  Actually try to damage both the AAC and the MWC at the same time.

BYU will be likely the first school the add, national fan base (helps put stands anywhere they play), has their own TV contract, excellent athletic program that finished in the top 25 in the Sears Cup standings this year.  BYU will likely pull for adding Boise St, who's fans also travel well to bowl games and other away games.  Boise St also had enough pull to get a special media rights deal for the MWC.  Also this add would also take some shine off the MWC's power rankings.   Next they will then go after the AAC, by taking 2 of their top teams.  I kind of feel like Cincinnati gets one spot to give West Virginia a life line, the other would be Houston (if the Texas schools agree).  If not Houston it would likely be UCF, but I would not count out Memphis to keep it more compact conference,  Think about it, why would you go East Coast?  How many P5 schools are in the Eastern Time Zone vs how many are in the Mountain Time Zone.  If you are in charge of a depleted conference would you rather compete for time slots against the SEC, Big 10, ACC, and to a lesser extent the AAC you just raided or the Pac's 4 schools and the MWC?

 

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1 minute ago, RebelRobert said:

Exactly.  Big Ten has shown before they are willing to play the long game to get who they really want (Notre Dame/USC/North Carolina) and the way you do that is by slowing diluting the conference that they currently participate and taking away their rivals/major markets.

If USC won't play ball.  Hit them where it hurts.

For the record, I think Kansas and Colorado are the most likely options. If Iowa St has the votes, then it’s Kansas and Iowa St.

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