Conference Realignment thread

[RSF]

On 4/1/2022 at 10:48 AM, SalinasSpartan said:

Honest question, if the SEC isn’t putting pressure on OUT to join before 2025, where is the pressure going to come from that is going to force OUT to make a deal for an early exit? I’m not seeing what the motivation is on their part. Also not really seeing the motivation from the Big 12 to let OUT leave for anything other then the GOR they signed.
 

Just doesn’t really seem like there is much incentive on either side to make a deal. 

Money and emotion.

 

Neither side wants this to go on any longer than necessary.  Anger aside, they all just want to move on.  Big 12 doesnt want OUT hanging out with them anymore, and vice versa.  So it becomes a game of chicken - Big 12 wants their (extra) pound of flesh, OUT wants to hold out as long as possible to reduce the final bill.  OUT wants to start cashing those big SEC checks (and so does the rest of the SEC).  The Big 12 is already going to get a big check at the end, but the want a BIGGER check, and sooner.  And ESPN wants to pull the plug on LHN.  The sooner the better with both.  We'll see if either blinks, and when.

[Aztec Since 88]

IMO The BIG 12 has the leverage in the exit of OUT.  If OUT wants to leave early they will have to pay up.

[SalinasSpartan]

On 4/1/2022 at 9:21 AM, Aztec Since 88 said:

IMO The BIG 12 has the leverage in the exit of OUT.  If OUT wants to leave early they will have to pay up.

In the last cycle TV contracts were expiring so there was a natural deadline to get the new schools in the fold ASAP. But in this case, the SEC signed their big ass deal already in 2020. CBS only has the SEC rights for this upcoming season and next, not going to be much motivation on CBS’ side to give the 16-team SEC a fair market deal for one season in 23 when they are losing the rights anyway. 

The new SEC deal kicks in 2024, so maybe they want OUT in the fold one year early for that season so everything can be negotiated before the deal officially starts?
 

[wolfpack1]

Everything can be negotiated but with how Big 12 feels with regards to Texas and Oklahoma right now, I don't think they will even talk about them leaving early for now. To me like Salinas said, come 2024 maybe all the sides sit down and talk as only one year of Media Rights is a hell of a lot different to Oklahoma than 3 years at this point in time, and both sides could have cooled down by then. 

And CBS contract with SEC is kind of funky anyway with ESPN also involved in that. 

But with how ESPN contract read getting afternoon SEC games on ABC Pac-12 could be gettin shut out on that time slot

 

[wolfpack1]

So was reading an article today, that said because of some of the rules that were changed at that convention, we could see an influx of FCS schools maybe wanting to come to FBS before it becomes more difficult so that part of realignment might not be finished which then could cause some Division II or III schools that have been on the edge of moving up finally making the decision to move up to Division I; especially with Conference USA talking with some FCS schools and FCS conferences talking with different schools as well.

[Pelado]

On 4/1/2022 at 9:48 AM, SalinasSpartan said:

Honest question, if the SEC isn’t putting pressure on OUT to join before 2025, where is the pressure going to come from that is going to force OUT to make a deal for an early exit? I’m not seeing what the motivation is on their part. Also not really seeing the motivation from the Big 12 to let OUT leave for anything other then the GOR they signed.
 

Just doesn’t really seem like there is much incentive on either side to make a deal. 

I think the Big 12 would like the new teams in before OUT are out.  Everyone knows the new teams wouldn't have been invited if not for OUT leaving, but having them share a conference with the blue bloods, even for just one season, lends an aire of legitimacy to the newcomers. 

[RSF]

On 4/1/2022 at 3:25 PM, Pelado said:

I think the Big 12 would like the new teams in before OUT are out.  Everyone knows the new teams wouldn't have been invited if not for OUT leaving, but having them share a conference with the blue bloods, even for just one season, lends an aire of legitimacy to the newcomers. 

I dont agree.  I think everybody currently in the B12 wants to rip the bandaid off.  Most everybody I know wants them out yesterday, but one more crack at them will be just fine.  After that....

[Pelado]

On 4/1/2022 at 2:33 PM, RSF said:

I dont agree.  I think everybody currently in the B12 wants to rip the bandaid off.  Most everybody I know wants them out yesterday, but one more crack at them will be just fine.  After that....

Could be.  Maybe I'm just projecting since I want them in the conference with BYU for as long as possible. 

[AztecSU]

On 4/1/2022 at 1:35 PM, Pelado said:

Could be.  Maybe I'm just projecting since I want them in the conference with BYU for as long as possible. 

You aren’t wrong on the perception affect imo. Even if UT is way underperforming against their historical norm and OU going through staff change, wins against those two will carry more weight and we all know it.

[Wyobraska]

On 4/1/2022 at 12:39 PM, wolfpack1 said:

So was reading an article today, that said because of some of the rules that were changed at that convention, we could see an influx of FCS schools maybe wanting to come to FBS before it becomes more difficult so that part of realignment might not be finished which then could cause some Division II or III schools that have been on the edge of moving up finally making the decision to move up to Division I; especially with Conference USA talking with some FCS schools and FCS conferences talking with different schools as well.

Great.  That's all FBS football needs, more teams. 

[wolfpack1]

4 hours ago, Wyobraska said:

Great.  That's all FBS football needs, more teams. 

Oh it will happen just when is the question and will have to happen sooner rather than later this time. CUSA isn't going to stay at 9 they will want to go up to 10 or possibly all the way to 12 and E. Kentucky, S. Houston St, Tarleton St are still interested in moving up. Missouri St is looking at moving up as well and rumblings are Sun Belt might not be done yet.

There was a conversation I saw, or post or something from a beat writers saying could the future NCAA be the new FBS is ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac-12 and SEC then the rest of are the new FCS or we will see the destruction of FCS with all the schools either moving to FBS or going down to Division II for football

[818SUDSFan]

Heard a rumor that Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee are going to join the MAC. Heard another rumor that they'll be placed in what is now called the West division with Toledo moving to the MAC East. Heard a third rumor that Ball State will be renamed Eastern Indiana University and the West division will be renamed the MAC Directional with Eastern Indiana, Northern Illinois, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky and Western, Eastern and Central Michigan.

Now THAT'S what I call MACtion!

[NorCalCoug]

On 4/1/2022 at 2:43 PM, AztecSU said:

You aren’t wrong on the perception affect imo. Even if UT is way underperforming against their historical norm and OU going through staff change, wins against those two will carry more weight and we all know it.

What exactly is Texas’ historical norm?  I kind of feel like underachieving mediocrity is their historical norm.

[RebelAlliance]

Just now, NorCalCoug said:

What exactly is Texas’ historical norm?  I kind of feel like underachieving mediocrity is their historical norm.

Exactly.  Other than that 2004-2009 window with Radio and Colt, they've pretty much been mediocre at best since the mid-70s.  They'll pull an occasional "TEXAS IS BACK!" season out of their ass but then slink right back to mediocrity.  

[Wyobraska]

On 4/2/2022 at 12:43 PM, RebelAlliance said:

Exactly.  Other than that 2004-2009 window with Radio and Colt, they've pretty much been mediocre at best since the mid-70s.  They'll pull an occasional "TEXAS IS BACK!" season out of their ass but then slink right back to mediocrity.  

Which when you look at the recruiting base, donor and fan base, and money it is absolutely insane how mediocre they have been. 

[AztecSU]

On 4/2/2022 at 11:41 AM, NorCalCoug said:

What exactly is Texas’ historical norm?  I kind of feel like underachieving mediocrity is their historical norm.

I get they haven’t done much the last decade plus. But they’re still top 10 all time for win %, total wins, Conf championships, weeks ranked, etc. These days I would still place them in the top 15 programs all time, but compared to the Texas sized expectations they carry I guess you can say they underachieve still. 

[818SUDSFan]

To borrow a bit from AztecSU, except for a few years when John Mackovic was HC, Texas football was very good to excellent for the three decades during which DeLoss Dodds was AD. However, Dodds retired effective July 2013 and it's really gone downhill since.

[SAMO]

1 hour ago, Wyobraska said:

Which when you look at the recruiting base, donor and fan base, and money it is absolutely insane how mediocre they have been. 

nobody does as little with as much as texass...lol

tamu is up there too tho IMO

[Pelado]

On 4/2/2022 at 12:43 PM, RebelAlliance said:

Exactly.  Other than that 2004-2009 window with Radio and Colt, they've pretty much been mediocre at best since the mid-70s.  They'll pull an occasional "TEXAS IS BACK!" season out of their ass but then slink right back to mediocrity.  

Since 1970, BYU has just as many national championships as Texas.  BYU also has the head-to-head advantage, going 4-1 versus the Longhorns. The last 3 victories have been by margins ranging from 19 points to 41 points.  Texas' lone win in series was at Texas by 1 point.

[wolfpack1]

Texas is who Texas is, pretty much except for when Vince Young was there, talk always center on how underperforming to expectations, the truth is maybe people's expectations for Texas are way higher than they should be and during the Young years they were above expectations