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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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Anyone else having pictures of fleas discussing ownership of the dog? 
Speculation is fun, at the end of the day, my gosh how can you keep this going? 
I think board and site owners across the country were needing clicks, and are colluding to make it seem like something is going to happen. That seems as plausible as the scenarios y’all are spinning. 
End rant, back up work.

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Out of my mind for the Lobos!!

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The realignment boards and where people think their teams will land are my favorite...always interesting to see the level of delusion that exists amongst our respective schools. My groupings-

We Know Who We Are & Arent Going Anywhere

Wyoming, UNR, Utah State, UNM, Fresno,SJSU- with the exception of the random missive about the San Jose media market, a group that knows their lot, and is enjoying watching others scurry for a seat at sadly depleted Big 12 table to the detriment of regional rivalries in a competitive, geographically rational conference.

We Know Who We Are & We Might Make Sense Somewhere Else If But For...

SDSU- good school, good football in a great location killed by Cal State affiliation and the PAC 12 schools with little incentive to invite then to have a seat at their natural table. Upwardly mobile optimism and bravado appropriate.

Air Force- elite academic institution best paired with the other service academies and participating at a lower tier for sports other than football. Never a perfect fit anywhere. Posters understandably restless in always looking for a better fit.  

CSU- good school with an academic profile similar to other land grants that are in the P5 (Iowa State, K State) that could benefit from a central location in the country in search of a higher profile conference. Perpetually underachieving and would need to give a reason for a moribund fan base and the Denver media market to care. Understandable optimism for better conference affiliation from the posters if they fixed some of the flaws...

Hawaii- Another good school stuck with a tough geographic situation. In an alternate universe, they've happily been a member of the PAC for decades...Measured optimism from posters that just maybe, someday, it could happen seems rational.

We're Insane. We Lack Perspective & Think We Are the Future

Boise- incredible success story that has made their posters believe that a competitive football program cancels out the obvious warts... Small school in a small State in a small media market with little academic pedigree( regional school rankings and University President plans for great things don't count)... Should there be optimism for new opportunities? Sure...tons...but the posters laughably operate with the bravado of the richest guy at the welfare office... Conference realignment poster craziness second only to...

UNLV- Sad commuter campus with historically bad football. Posters commonly conflating the strip with that depressing campus and an odd notion that being in a major metro area with pro teams moving in is going to increase interest in UNLV sports and bring the Pac 12 calling. Weak academics in a state with chronically under-funded public institutions. Could it get it's get act together , build a football following, strengthen it's academics, and rebuild it's basketball brand? Sure.. But right now, it's kind of an open admissions commuter school dumpster fire. Wildly distorted sense of place in the college sports world and bravado that I wouldn't have believed existed if not for this board. Cheers to UNLV posters for dreaming the big!

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, azgreg said:

He wasn't my first choice. I think in developing players and in game coaching will be a step up from Johnson but he's never recruited. I'm a little worried about that. 

We have hired 6 new head coaches this last year and none of them have college head coaching experience. Some of them don't have head coaching experience at an level. 

 

 

Hale will have the assistants to deal with that.  Players will listen to him, given his MLB experience.

As for Lloyd, he learned from one of the best.  Distancing yourselves from Sean Miller's coaching tree will be good in the long term

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2 hours ago, Billings said:

Anyone else feeling we are watching the birth of the P4 and the end of the B12.

Get rid of 4-5 schools or so and you have the end of the PAC-12 and now you have three P3 conferences. That is coming, it is just a matter of when. It could be quite a bit quicker than expected given the latest acts and rumors.

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5 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

This could just have easily read never trust MHver3

:shots:

True.  I don’t know how reliable he is or if he even is at all?

With that said, I still don’t trust Texas to do what they say they are doing.  They are liars and would love nothing more than to screw over OU if they can.

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3 hours ago, ph90702 said:

Neither school moves the needle.

No Joke, the SEC adds Texas and OU and the Big10 is going to counter with adding Kansas and Iowa St (I'm sure Iowa is all for adding Iowa St, so they are both on a level playing field).

 

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1 hour ago, Del Scorcho said:

I cant see the PAC12 adding anyone. I think the PAC12 needs to offer up its larger players USC, UCLA, Oregon and UW a bigger piece of the conference revenue pie in order to retain them and avoid what just happened in the B12

That’s why I think the Arizona, Utah, Colorado teams could bolt. 

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14 hours ago, Ibanez said:

People really do believe the PAC 12 will bite and not take AAU schools. The argument being that if they can't get a school in the AAU, they might as well just take the best available out there.

Not sure that's how it works.

Not everyone in the PAC is an AAU school.

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6 minutes ago, Rosegreen said:

That’s why I think the Arizona, Utah, Colorado teams could bolt. 

They won't bolt until they get left behind. They still make more money being in the PAC-12 than they can get anywhere else and they would get money from those who would chose to leave the conference. 

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3 hours ago, Someone said:

there are several issues with this

1. right now the PAC 12 is only slightly more stable than the Big 12

2. the Big 12 still has an exit fee of two years worth of distributions and that is not going away and there is very little chance the conference just dissolves....those exit fees total $80 million or so per member leaving

3. the Big 12 still has a GOR.....no one is going to move from the Big 12 until Texas and OU show everyone else the cost (if there even is a cost) of breaking the GOR or if the GOR can even be broken

4. the Big 12 currently pays a fair amount more than the PAC 12....and of one wants to argue that ESPN and Fox will somehow break the contract with the Big 12 because Texas and OU leave well what do you think they will do to the PAC 12 if USC and UCLA and possibly two others leave......now I contend that ESPN and Fox will not do that for a number of reasons, but that would be the argument one would make for any Big 12 team to leave now.....and since point #1 stands there is no "stability" in jumping to the PAC 12, no additional money, large cost to move and then

5. the PAC 12 contract ends a year before the Big 12 contract......so no one knows what the PAC 12 will get for a new contract especially if USC and UCLA and others leave.....so spending at least $80 million to jump from the Big 12 to the PAC 12 where there is no real stability right now and an unknown contract in the future is not s smart move at that price or at any price

6. there are a lot of exit fees and NCAA credits to collect as a member of the Big 12.....leaving that behind along with $80 million of your own cash to jump to the PAC 12 with their own stability problems is not a smart move for anyone

Adding to those points, I'm sure the Pac will have some type of entrance fee and I highly doubt they would be willing to share their already earn NCAA credits with the ne members.  I don't know that any poster yet that thinks the the 8 other Big 12 teams value will average what they are currently getting, so so why would the Pac feel they would actually add value to their current value of TV contract?

We have not to even started to talk about the Midwest Culture vs the West Coast Culture.  I just don't see the Pac adding schools just to try to keep up with the SEC and or maybe the Big 10,  If that were the case why didn't the move to 14 when the SEC, Big 10, and ACC did.  Plus, factoring the cost that the 8 remaining schools would to pay to move (exit fees, loss of GOR, & loss of NCAA credit), which of those schools could afford the move coming off COVID (where their revenue took a beating).

 

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3 hours ago, azgreg said:

He wasn't my first choice. I think in developing players and in game coaching will be a step up from Johnson but he's never recruited. I'm a little worried about that. 

We have hired 6 new head coaches this last year and none of them have college head coaching experience. Some of them don't have head coaching experience at an level. 

 

 

Thanks for Joe Pasternack!  :D

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