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Conference Realignment thread

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38 minutes ago, ClevelandBrown said:

How I'm hoping it shakes out (no reasoning other than geographic sense and what I want to see, don't @ me):

SEC: adds UT, OU, WVU. Loses Mizzou.

ACC: adds Maryland, ND

B1G: adds Mizzou, KU, ISU. Loses Maryland.

PAC: adds OkST, TTU, CSU, Boise CC  <---I  The Juco is WAY to much of a stretch academically.  In addition, while they do have a moderate national appeal it's no where big enough to over-come the uber TINY size of their home market. I like TCU or K-State here as well, and CSU-Diego to a lesser extent, only because Cal, UCLA, Stanford & the Univ of Spoiled Children don't want the competition.  Further more, the 12-Pack already owns the SD DMA.  An additional 'tec game on the tube doesn't at much to the aggregate of their media pkg. I do have to say, their new soccer stadium in Mission Valley does make them more attractive & a great road trip for the afore mentioned mentioned Calif Schools & 'zona intitiuions for that matter.  There is a HUGE 'zona/SD Co figurative pipeline.  Ocean Bch all the way north to Oceanside along the SD Co coastline is littered with vacation homes of the haves from The PHX I Paradise Valley I Snots-dale, etc...

 For those of y'all that poo-poo CSU to the 16-Pack.  The additions of the Stillwater & Lubbock schools put CSU squarely in the middle-of-the-pac (pun intended) of the new Pacific-16.  In addition, CSU has more alumni both state-wide & the population dense portion of Ft Range between The Spgs in the south & Ft Fun to the North.

 

New American: Fresno, SDSU, UNLV, UNM, KState, TCU, Baylor, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Tulane, App State, Cincy, UCF, USF (hard to deny this as a power conference, definitely a top bball league)

New WAC/MWC: SJSU, USU, WYO, Southern Utah, NAU, Reno, NMSU, UTEP, UTSA, Texas State, Montana, Montana State, <---I  The last I heard, MT & MSU don't want to make the jump to D-1A.

 

¿Where did you hide Navy, The USAFA & West Pt?

<---I  It also concerns me to see the like of Baylor (yes they have HUGE WARTS induced by a vibrant rape culture aided 'n' abated by all-around-miserable human being & frmr Univ President Kenney Star  & a top notch, yet historically homicidal hoops pgm), Houston, (a recently improve & moneyed up) SMU & Cincy left-out on the sidelines.

If this story as legs, it should be an interesting 2-3 more-yrs watching how these dominos will fall. 

 

 

 

I like how you think @ClevelandBrown.  I few pt do worry me a lil' bit.

 

 

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2 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

This.  As long as 3 or more teams remain at the end of the shuffling no vote to dissolve the conference.  Every team that leaves earlier to the GOR will need to pay an exit fee of 70 million.  Plus the NCAA credits.  That is a lot of windfall to be split between 3-7 teams.  The Big 12 "branding" also has to be considered worth a bit compared to the AAC and MWC.  

Any left over Big 12 teams it would seem would be able to lure in the G5 programs they want, even if it is only 3.  A chance to ditch the dregs of their own conferences, waive entrance fees and maybe offer them a small part of the absolutely gigantic war chest they will inherit.

Say 3 teams leave.  That is 210 million in exit fees between 7 teams.  The remaining 7 teams could absolutely raid the AAC and MWC at will (AAC far more likely of course).  Lets say 7 teams leave.  With 4 to the P12, Kansas to the B1G and OU/Texas to the SEC.  In exit fees alone that is almost half a billion.  Even the remaining three of the Big 12 dregs could offer with ease a $10 million "signing bonus"  incentive to 7 schools from the MWC/AAC/BYU, while offering them the chance to drop dead weight in the conference.  

It would also be in their interest to do that because 1-2 schools from the MWC+BYU and 3-4 from the AAC+the 3 left overs from the Big 12 would be a better media deal than what they could hope for by joining either the AAC or MWC.  Plus those 3+ Big 12 teams could keep all the NCAA credits.

As long as the Big 12 does not dissolve it would seem logical they will be doing  the raiding.

 

Bingo.  The Big 12 will stay together (some of them might be able to land in a better conference) because of the money.  They will poach the AAC for three or four (Cincy, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF) and maybe one MWC (perhaps CSU) to get to 12.  The MW will stay largely intact and if we lose a school we will be able to grab a SMU or Houston (if they don't go to the Big 12) to backfill.  

  

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3 minutes ago, Fowl said:

Bingo.  The Big 12 will stay together (some of them might be able to land in a better conference) because of the money.  They will poach the AAC for three or four (Cincy, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF) and maybe one MWC (perhaps CSU) to get to 12.  The MW will stay largely intact and if we lose a school we will be able to grab a SMU or Houston (if they don't go to the Big 12) to backfill.  

  

Say OU and UT formally leave, then you’re left with 8 schools, so 6 votes gets you that 75% needed to change bye-laws. If four schools are informed the votes are there to get Pac-12 invites, and WVU and KU are informed they have the votes from the ACC and B1G, what would stop those 6 schools from voting to dissolve the conference and have every school take their share of the tourney credits with them? 

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2 hours ago, RebelRobert said:

Lets say MWC does lose a few members, who is likely to be added?

SMU

Tulsa

North Texas

UTEP

New Mexico State

UTSA

Rice

 

If MWC loses a few teams, that means the AAC likely lost their best schools also.  Remaining MWC may be able to pull SMU & Tulsa in this scenario if the MWC is perceived to have lost less and looks to be the stronger conference remaining.

A Big-12 raid of the AAC/BYU likely leaves the MWC with several good expansion candidates (SMU/Tulsa).

 

 

It's WAY too soon to have this convo.  

YES...it's very probable the MWC will have to back-fill, however there are way too many moving parts & dominos left to fall, that will shape our conf's options.  Therefore, any semblance of a meaningful spit-balling pow-wow here is feudal at this stage of the game.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ibanez said:

SEC gets Texas and OU.

ACC gets West Virginia and Cincinnati (Which hurts the AAC)

B1G wins the battle over the PAC-12 for Kansas and takes Iowa State

PAC-12 takes Texas Tech and Oklahoma State just to keep up and stop the SEC from growing even more without it costing them some $.

Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State are S.O.L. Their first order of business is asking of they wanna share a conference with other Texas schools. I think they grab the best available AAC schools so UCF, USF, Memphis, and Houston. Not sure about SMU. They will talk to BYU. Depending on that conversation they may grab Boise or Colorado State. After that they will talk to TV partners and decide of they wanna stay at 10 or go to 12. No way they just start adding teams to reach a number.

So, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State, UCF, USF, Memphis, Houston, BYU, Boise State, and either SMU or Colorado State. That's the 10. SDSU and Fresno are the next best choices and I'd argue better than SMU, USF, and Colorado State but my guess is as few western schools as possible.

Let the hate responses come!

Interesting that some say on here the PAC-12 would never consider adding SDSU because they already have numerous games in the time zone and, yet, when it comes to teams based in and around Texas the "distance" to San Diego is an issue overlooking the fact that they have no games in this time zone. What really makes it "interesting" as it takes 2:45 to fly from Dallas to SLC and 2:55 to fly from Dallas to San Diego. Of course, once you get to SLC you have an hour bus ride to Provo whereas it is no more than a 20 minute ride to either the new stadium or the SDSU main campus. The flight time for Dallas to Boise is 3:15 minutes. To Denver, the time is 2:05 but the drive from Denver to CSU is at least 1:40. For a depleted Big-12 or AAC (even a merger of the two) I see the only way for them to try to keep up is expanding their overall TV market, which means moving west, not east. The east is already saturated with games, games better than what the Big12 or AAC can host.

San Diego has the 27th largest TV market in the US. Should be a bit higher than that because a lot of San Diegans (many are SDSU graduates) live in Temecula and commute to SD for work - and Temecula is considered to be in the LA media area. When it comes to the TV market in the MWC, San Diego is the biggest. For sports, we now only have professional baseball in what is the 8th largest city in the US so the competition for football and BB here doesn't exist. Hell, we have a lot of alumni that live just up the coast in OC and LA as well.

It will be interesting to see what sort of cascade effect comes out of the UT/OSU defection to the SEC. I have always felt that the best SDSU can do (and that includes the rest of the MWC) is to be included in the conference one step removed from the top conferences. To be honest, I see the P5 conferences looking to get rid of their "lower tier" players and create their own league outside of the NCAA for football. I really can't see more than 40 teams included in that scenario, though we may be a few years from that actually happening. 

1 hour ago, Ibanez said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Ibanez said:

I just think if the Big 12 somehow survives they are gonna wanna add as few western teams as possible.

yes. The MWC might emerge unscathed.

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42 minutes ago, Pokes Forever said:

If the “elites” start picking off teams from each other what’s to keep the CFP in its updated format?  We could end up with three super conferences (B1G, SEC and ACC) and the PAC going the way of the Big 12.  They control ESPN and the networks and thus could eliminate some of the deadwood.  SC, UCLA, Washington and Stanford could go wherever they choose.  Everyone else is SOL and fight over the table scraps.  Nothing says the blue bloods have to play by the current ideals.

I'd add Oregon to that mix, they have Nike money.

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2 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I just think if the Big 12 somehow survives they are gonna wanna add as few western teams as possible.

This is a big long term mistake on their part but not surprising.  They don't seem like the type of people that actually think things through.

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28 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

They probably wanna get it down to 32 teams and then leave the NCAA.

I agree.

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9 minutes ago, Aztec1984 said:

Interesting that some say on here the PAC-12 would never consider adding SDSU because they already have numerous games in the time zone and, yet, when it comes to teams based in and around Texas the "distance" to San Diego is an issue overlooking the fact that they have no games in this time zone. What really makes it "interesting" as it takes 2:45 to fly from Dallas to SLC and 2:55 to fly from Dallas to San Diego. Of course, once you get to SLC you have an hour bus ride to Provo whereas it is no more than a 20 minute ride to either the new stadium or the SDSU main campus. The flight time for Dallas to Boise is 3:15 minutes. To Denver, the time is 2:05 but the drive from Denver to CSU is at least 1:40. For a depleted Big-12 or AAC (even a merger of the two) I see the only way for them to try to keep up is expanding their overall TV market, which means moving west, not east. The east is already saturated with games, games better than what the Big12 or AAC can host.

San Diego has the 27th largest TV market in the US. Should be a bit higher than that because a lot of San Diegans (many are SDSU graduates) live in Temecula and commute to SD for work - and Temecula is considered to be in the LA media area. When it comes to the TV market in the MWC, San Diego is the biggest. For sports, we now only have professional baseball in what is the 8th largest city in the US so the competition for football and BB here doesn't exist. Hell, we have a lot of alumni that live just up the coast in OC and LA as well.

It will be interesting to see what sort of cascade effect comes out of the UT/OSU defection to the SEC. I have always felt that the best SDSU can do (and that includes the rest of the MWC) is to be included in the conference one step removed from the top conferences. To be honest, I see the P5 conferences looking to get rid of their "lower tier" players and create their own league outside of the NCAA for football. I really can't see more than 40 teams included in that scenario, though we may be a few years from that actually happening. 

 

Wrong.....San Jose is in the largest media market in The MWC....

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6 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

This is a big long term mistake on their part but not surprising.  They don't seem like the type of people that actually think things through.

Damn...another irony meter shot to hell...

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7 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I just think if the Big 12 somehow survives they are gonna wanna add as few western teams as possible.

Then, they will fall back even farther. 

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2 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

iHeart Media picked up Fresno State's radio rights, replacing the local ESPN Radio broadcaster.

Games will be broadcast on 5 different stations stretching from Stockton to Bakersfield. The Stockton station broadcast area reach is into the Sacramento suburbs.

Apparently the belief is there are enough fans north of Modesto to justify the broadcasts. We will see.

 

Thx for the background on CSU-Fresno's changing media landscape.

You could be right, however I have lots of family in Modesto/Turlock/Ceres/Oakdale, etc..., as well as friends, frmr roommates &  business associates in Sacto & on up into Oroville & over to Auburn/Folsom/Granite Bay, yet I just don't get the feel the 'Dawgs have much pull north of the Greater Manteca/Lodi Metroplex...jaja.  With all my time in AK & my recent move to SoCal, you'd know way better than me.  Like you said, "we will see."

I get the impression, Sacto peeps identify more with The Bay & even Reno than the do w/anything south of Stockton.

Y'all have Modesto & environs fo' sho'.  My younger cousin got a hint o' D-1A interest out of an adjacent suburban-Modesto HS as an O-Lineman.  He would have given his left nut to play for CSU-Fresno.  Unfortunately, your 'Dawgs weren't offering a scholly.  He had uber good grades & ended earning All Conf Honors as a Center at a small Bay Area school.  One of his HS buddies went to UNR & had a decent career in The League.

Modesto...south to the Grapevine is a slam-dunk lock for y'all...

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rebels18 said:

If you think this is gonna have a happy ending for UNR you're sorely mistaken. 

UNLV will leave UNR in the dust once again. Every time UNR follows UNLV like a little puppy dog from conference to conference, it's time for us to move on. From the Big West, to the WAC, to the MWC...now to the BIG 10 or Pac-12! So long! 

I’ll bet you any amount of money that the PAC-12 won’t want UNLV. You don’t seem to understand that it’s an academic conference. And they get the biggest woody over medical research. Nevada is in just as good or better position to do well in a re-alignment situation. Although greater Reno is only 650,000, but Nevada owns it. In comparison, Vegas is full of transplants from CA that could care less about UNLV. Your attendance makes that painfully obvious. What good is a 2 million market when very few will watch you on TV? 

Also, the largest Nevada alumni chapter is in Sacramento. The Sac Bee covers Nevada and Fresno St. sports. Nevada needs to have a study done and find out exactly how much of the Sac-Modesto market they have compared to the PAC-12. With 33-35,000 Nevada fans showing up to the Kraft Bowl in 2010, it was the 1st and only time so far where Pack Bay Area and Valley fans were given an event to attend close to home. I don’t think there was anyone not shocked at how many showed up. It’s certainly some good empirical evidence to further explore. 

There are Fresno fans there too, but not nearly as many. 

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Front Range

Air Force

Colorado State

Wyoming

Kansas

Kansas State

 

South

Baylor

TCU

OK State

Texas Tech

West Virginia

 

West

Boise State

Iowa State

Utah State

Reno

UNLV

 

Pacific

New Mexico

San Diego State

Fresno

San Jose

Hawaii

 

Quints that rotate every year work way better than quads.  You get 9 games with plenty of new teams and out of conference opportunities.

 

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I am one of the few PAC-12 fans who is not against adding Nevada and UNLV to the conference. Mainly so we can fill this giant hole in the map. It absolutely kills my CDO (the same thing as OCD but the letters are in alphabetical order like they should be). Plus they are both rated as VHRA universities and are willing to play sports on Sundays which puts them way ahead of BYU.

 

pac-12 map.png

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7 minutes ago, dudleyDgroot said:

Wrong.....San Jose is in the largest media market in The MWC....

You are included with San Francrapistan and Oakland.  That means you are competing with Stanford and Cal. Oh, just a suggestion, please  change the floor you play on in basketball. Has to be the ugliest in all of college basketball. Once you do that, add some lights, the place looks depressing on TV.  :D

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