Conference Realignment thread

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 10/1/2024 at 5:10 PM, alum93 said:

I don't like it, but realignment is being driven by what adds value for the next cable contract, not what locals think about a rivalry.  Someone has to be telling the MWC that Tarleton has value.  It sits between Dallas and Austin where there are millions of people.  That's the only reason it would possibly make sense.  Otherwise, yeah, a school like Montana with their facilities and FCS history makes way more sense given the MWC footprint.  NMSU is in a similar boat from a population standpoint.  LC has 110k with EP just down the road at 700k and a 50k stadium.  NMSU crowds would dwarf anything Tarleton could bring to schools like UNM and UTEP, but they aren't in the running.  Eyeballs for watching on cable just aren't there.  Fortunately, we have always played and will continue to play both UNM and UTEP in multiple sports, including football and basketball.  I am a bit puzzled why no talk of NDSU, not even a hint.  Not trying to make fun of Bison dude, but i would think there would at least be some rumblings of meetings.  Nada that i have heard.  And if AAC schools stand firm, PAC is going to end up adding a smaller school just to get to 8.  Just think, Texas State, a school no one has ever talked about on these forums, could be in play for either MWC or PAC.  Crazy.

Some have been mentioning Texas state for a while, more of a testament of who you listen to here than anything..

 There is nothing the pac can offer the aac schools that the aac doesn’t already have.

The new PAC and the MWC will be merged into the same conference by 2030, it’s kind of silly seeing all this discourse when they’re basically just arguing over divisions at this point.

I would be surprised if many (if any) more schools get called up to fbs at this point.  There’s major pushback against allowing any more mouths to feed at the fbs level.

[alum93]

On 10/2/2024 at 8:02 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Some have been mentioning Texas state for a while, more of a testament of who you listen to here than anything..

 There is nothing the pac can offer the aac schools that the aac doesn’t already have.

The new PAC and the MWC will be merged into the same conference by 2030, it’s kind of silly seeing all this discourse when they’re basically just arguing over divisions at this point.

I would be surprised if many (if any) more schools get called up to fbs at this point.  There’s major pushback against allowing any more mouths to feed at the fbs level.

I still think Memphis is going to get a boatload of cash, relatively speaking for G5 level, to move to PAC.  They were lowballed first time.  I'm sure the PAC did not anticipate the remaining MWC schools sticking together once they pried USU away.  With the MWC stabilized and adding UTEP,  the PAC will use the Gonzaga addition to help sell the move along with several more millions.  I think it works this time.  But you are right,  there was never a good reason for any of this to happen.  It should have just been a merger between MWC and PAC2.  But egos and all.  Instead of one strong G5 western based conference, they created 2 with the same schools for football.  Will it matter in the long run?  The P4 is going to break away and form their own division.  It doesn't matter what the PAC or MWC or any other G5 conference does short term.  None of the schools are making the cut when that breakaway happens.  

[Poster17]

That is why all this MWC and PAC realignment really means nothing.  It is all a push to get to the realignment where the P4 break away.  Schools have to do what is best for them to make themselves most attractive over the next 5 years.  For some that is joining PAC.  For others that is getting money to stabilize and lock down coaches and NIL dealings.  While keeping an eye on the future, you must do what is best for you program over the short term as that breakaway will probably happen in about 5 years.

[CAM THE RAM]

On 10/2/2024 at 8:46 AM, alum93 said:

I still think Memphis is going to get a boatload of cash, relatively speaking for G5 level, to move to PAC.  They were lowballed first time.  I'm sure the PAC did not anticipate the remaining MWC schools sticking together once they pried USU away.  With the MWC stabilized and adding UTEP,  the PAC will use the Gonzaga addition to help sell the move along with several more millions.  I think it works this time.  But you are right,  there was never a good reason for any of this to happen.  It should have just been a merger between MWC and PAC2.  But egos and all.  Instead of one strong G5 western based conference, they created 2 with the same schools for football.  Will it matter in the long run?  The P4 is going to break away and form their own division.  It doesn't matter what the PAC or MWC or any other G5 conference does short term.  None of the schools are making the cut when that breakaway happens.  

I really think college football will need a "true" conference west of Texas. The continual population growth and the need to fill nighttime slots for the gambling markets will make the Pac 12 a "somewhat" valuable asset. Maybe they don't get the same deal as the SEC or Big 10 but geography will save the Pac 12 and possibly the MWC.

[alum93]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:12 AM, CAM THE RAM said:

I really think college football will need a "true" conference west of Texas. The continual population growth and the need to fill nighttime slots for the gambling markets will make the Pac 12 a "somewhat" valuable asset. Maybe they don't get the same deal as the SEC or Big 10 but geography will save the Pac 12 and possibly the MWC.

They still have all the P4 teams on the west coast.  Those teams didn't move campuses.  All the big boys are still playing their home games on the big networks in prime time, just like before.  They are just doing it under a different conference name now.  We all are going to stay G5.  The PAC and MWC will continue as conferences, at the G5 level.  Same as AAC, CUSA, Sun Belt, and MAC.  Nothing wrong with that.  I think WSU and OSU are the only 2 schools still in denial about being a power school.  So be it.  Now they get to play MWC teams instead of schools like USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington.  It is what it is.

[CAM THE RAM]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:18 AM, alum93 said:

They still have all the P4 teams on the west coast.  Those teams didn't move campuses.  All the big boys are still playing their home games on the big networks in prime time, just like before.  They are just doing it under a different conference name now.  We all are going to stay G5.  The PAC and MWC will continue as conferences, at the G5 level.  Same as AAC, CUSA, Sun Belt, and MAC.  Nothing wrong with that.  I think WSU and OSU are the only 2 schools still in denial about being a power school.  So be it.  Now they get to play MWC teams instead of schools like USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington.  It is what it is.

I understand that there are P4 teams on the West but there isn't a "True" P4 conference west of Texas. If you look at College Sports as a business (which it is) don't you that they will need strengthen certain markets? Example... I think in 20 years a Colorado State would be bigger than a Kansas State if they were in the same conference. For various reasons. But the P4 excluding 60-65 teams seems anti-business to me. Maybe 135 FBS schools is too many but forgetting about the West doesn't seem like a good long term business move. 

[alum93]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:45 AM, CAM THE RAM said:

I understand that there are P4 teams on the West but there isn't a "True" P4 conference west of Texas. If you look at College Sports as a business (which it is) don't you that they will need strengthen certain markets? Example... I think in 20 years a Colorado State would be bigger than a Kansas State if they were in the same conference. For various reasons. But the P4 excluding 60-65 teams seems anti-business to me. Maybe 135 FBS schools is too many but forgetting about the West doesn't seem like a good long term business move. 

I understand the logic.  But i never thought the MWC conference was P4 level.  So basically you took 5 of those schools, added the 2 smallest markets from what used to be the PAC, and want to think it will be included with the big boys when it comes to football?  I just don't ever see it happening.  I still enjoy G5 football out west, so to me nothing has really changed.  It's just a guess that the P4 are going to pull away.  All signs point to that, including the BiG and B12 absorbing the PAC minus WOSU.  Now BiG and SEC are talking scheduling agreements and getting 8 of the 12 auto bids after 2026.  It just seems to be getting closer and closer to a formal split.  If the new PAC can pull a rabbit out of the hat and somehow make the cut when all is said and done, more power to them.  I certainly wouldn't bet on it based on everything we have seen so far.

[Brew_Poke]

On 10/1/2024 at 2:18 PM, utgrizfan said:

Enjoy Tarleton State  seriously if the MWC is stupid enough to target Tarleton as an FCS option then good riddance. I thought you guys were being smart when it comes to Realignment, if true I was very wrong.

Adding either Montana or Montana State, let alone both at the same time, takes money away from our program.  Same for NMSU.  I don't see what you don't get about this.

[CAM THE RAM]

On 10/2/2024 at 10:06 AM, alum93 said:

I understand the logic.  But i never thought the MWC conference was P4 level.  So basically you took 5 of those schools, added the 2 smallest markets from what used to be the PAC, and want to think it will be included with the big boys when it comes to football?  I just don't ever see it happening.  I still enjoy G5 football out west, so to me nothing has really changed.  It's just a guess that the P4 are going to pull away.  All signs point to that, including the BiG and B12 absorbing the PAC minus WOSU.  Now BiG and SEC are talking scheduling agreements and getting 8 of the 12 auto bids after 2026.  It just seems to be getting closer and closer to a formal split.  If the new PAC can pull a rabbit out of the hat and somehow make the cut when all is said and done, more power to them.  I certainly wouldn't bet on it based on everything we have seen so far.

Ha! I didn't do anything. I do see a difference between the new PAC 12 and MWC but it's nothing to brag about. I just think at some point you need to invest into the West and by excluding most the teams out this way isn't a going to help. If you make football more irrelevant for people in the western US than they will watch less and less. I know I would.

[Laconian]

Doesn't look like the PAC is currently talking to Memphis. 

https://x.com/rossdellenger/status/1841495017937887298?s=46&t=PYAXrnOk7Raf9szCgMxgow

[Brew_Poke]

On 10/1/2024 at 10:00 PM, UofMTigers said:

ASU would be better off in the AAC after some defections IMHO.

MWC needs to take UTEPs buddy NMSU. It just makes so much sense that it'll never happen lol

It doesn't make cents.

[Brew_Poke]

On 10/1/2024 at 10:20 PM, lakesbison said:

Of Course, in exchange NDSU keeps it's current $2 million TV deal locally. 

NDSU could even take a lower % for the first 5 years because we will make it up fundraising as a FBS team.  but if NDSU wins the MWC and is your CFP participant, then NDSU should get a bigger % that year.   because NDSU would 12-0 Wyoming's Schedule this year.

You couldn't even beat a 4 win Wyoming when you tried.

[alum93]

Don't know if this was already posted.  Great article on UNLV and the decision to stay in MWC and the mess with the qb and NIL.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41532905/unlv-pac-12-mountain-west-nil-dispute-matthew-sluka

By choosing to align with the Mountain West, UNLV has grouped itself with schools that have not invested in football on the level of their peers in the western part of the country. At almost every juncture in realignment over the past several years, schools have attempted to move to conferences with stronger competition. UNLV is an outlier, content to stay loyal to a league that lost five of its best brands within a matter of weeks.

As part of the release announcing its decision Thursday, UNLV said it "will also have the flexibility to explore future membership in an autonomous "Power Four' conference without penalty should the opportunity become available."

While this is technically true, the idea that UNLV will generate interest from a Power 4 conference in the next few years is a long shot, at best, and suggesting that possibility played a role in remaining in the Mountain West is unconvincing.

Harper was undeterred by some of the negative reaction that arrived when UNLV announced it would stay Thursday.

"The shots we took on social media for not just jumping at it right away -- well, sometimes one plus one doesn't equal two and two plus two doesn't always equal four," he said.

"If I could release all the financials, everybody would understand more of our decision. There's a lot that still needs to play out, but it's kind of interesting how the Memphis AD said [the Pac-12's offer] was a bad deal for them. I think at this point that's probably about all I would say. Yeah, overall complexity of the deal and all the evaluation, it wasn't a good deal once you look at the now, the middle and the future. It didn't make sense."

[SanDiegoPoke]

On 10/2/2024 at 12:21 PM, alum93 said:

...schools that have not invested in football on the level of their peers in the western part of the country.

I dispute that Wyoming has not invested on that level. They have spent a ton of money on improved facilities, upgraded the stadium, etc. This is the narrative, but it is not a fact.

[Brew_Poke]

@utgrizfan Just for you.  I don't hate it, it'd be a lot of fun, and it'd be stable.  We just wouldn't be maximizing our income. 

West........................Mountain

Hawai'i (all sports)......Montana State

San Jose State...............Wyoming

Nevada............................Air Force

UNLV...............................New Mexico

Idaho...............................New Mexico State

Montana........................UTEP

[415hawaiiboy]

One thing not touched upon in this discussion is the value of an FBS conference.

While FCS schools could be called up to FBS, I’m pretty sure they are not creating any more FBS conferences, only reducing.  
 

Conferences get a share of the CFP; get to negotiate with media providers, and so forth. 
 

The merge would have left money on the table (go from two CFP payouts to one).

The natural state of the world is a conference would try to survive.  Now the MWC might have been ok to dissolve, but that leaves money on the table. 
 

This is the natural way.

[RebelRobert]

 

https://x.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1841828969810628928?s=46&t=MXuJiO1t1gwkhjZw_FvxFQ

[Iam4wyo]

On 10/3/2024 at 9:24 AM, RebelRobert said:

 

https://x.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1841828969810628928?s=46&t=MXuJiO1t1gwkhjZw_FvxFQ

Great move if it happens!

[PlayersinVegas]

My guy said get to 8 and stop lol, look nobodies interested in a small group of bottom feeders. That's like the A10 conference in basketball lmfao. They need more schools for more games and more locations. Lol stop at 8 is hilarious. 

 

 

Kudos though Hawaii basketball program is generally strong. 

[RebelRobert]

On 10/3/2024 at 11:26 AM, PlayersinVegas said:

My guy said get to 8 and stop lol, look nobodies interested in a small group of bottom feeders. That's like the A10 conference in basketball lmfao. They need more schools for more games and more locations. Lol stop at 8 is hilarious. 

 

 

Kudos though Hawaii basketball program is generally strong. 

No other viable options exist or make sense. You do NOT add just for the sake of adding because the brain dead commish is bored. Anyone you add, you can NEVER get rid of them. That is why you don’t add a Grand Canyon or a St Mary’s (not that they would come). 

We have the minimum  number of schools, they all have been together in one form or another for decades. These eight make sense. No others do.

The correct move at this time is to stop and do not add anyone else.

we all know the incompetence that runs our conference and our schools. What horrible decision they will make is up for debate. Again, the correct move now is to stop. Combining with AAC or PAC-12 would be smart.