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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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6 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I haven't heard anything about FCS additions but Denver and Omaha were two names that I have seen. I have also seen UT Arlington, NM State, Northern Colorado, Missouri KC, Pacific, and Grand Canyon. No Big West teams. Not any good options. I'll have to ask about FCS schools and potential interest. 

I think staying at 20 just isn't what conferences wanna do anymore. Even Karl Benson said those 20 team conferences are a thing of the past.

I'll say this, if Boise State is in the MWC for the long haul I'd rather have teams that have fan support. I'm tired of going to away games and seeing the stadiums only a third of the way full at best.

If you want a full stadium and awesome fan engagement, NDSU is the clear answer. Montana 2nd, Montana state 3rd. And those bottom tier Texas schools somewhere at 4+. 

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5 hours ago, Ibanez said:

During the last lawsuit FOX agreed to pay Boise State the extra $1.8 for that first season. The Covid season. FOX is doing it this year as well. Boise State had agreed to renegotiate the terms after this contract is over. I have been told Boise State has agreed to not get extra money but they get to keep the TV portion of the deal. So all of their games will be on TV. 

Teams are also putting games on Stadium and Flo this year as part of their third Tier package. We won't miss any basketball this year, at least conference games.

I think we might actually lose Air Force. 

It is interesting what keep the portion of the TV deal actually means.   If it means you have to get the entire MWC and pay more that is one thing.  If it means we are competing with ourselves that is another.  Hard to know without at least a term sheet being sent out.  

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1 minute ago, Ibanez said:

But you're looking at potentially an 8 team conference with 7 basketball members. MWC needs to be proactive now and convince CSU and Air Force to stay. At least CSU. 

Absolutely.  10 is extremely dangerous if you get poached.   I would be happier at 14 given the chance of loosing 2 in the future.  

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6 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I like Wyoming and constantly praise them but being realistic, no conference is gonna extend them an invite. They need the MWC to say together in some form.  

Yep same with Nevada as both are in the 100’s.  Fresno/New Mexico are one step higher but really likely in the same boat.  Of course if any team goes on a Boise/UCF run things change and if Boise fails to win it could change for them.  

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1 hour ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

I've recently read where Memphis & BSU will not get invited due to academics.

Supposedly, they will only consider programs who are R1 research universities.  Also,  WVU has the lowest academics in the league and they don't want schools ranked lower than WVU.

I don't find that difficult to believe.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This is all true.

Bowlsby also touted R1 status in all his interviews on expansion Friday.

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13 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

At this point I'm sure Memphis and Boise State are safely in. If the Big 12 actually does try to get PAC-12 teams which is rumored, the PAC-12 will just grab Houston and TCU. I'm actually counting on it. Then Boise State, Memphis, SDSU, and someone else is definitely in.

If the academic stuff is true, they won't be going anywhere.  They will only consider R1 U's and no one ranked lower than WVU. 

That is just more reason to believe they will stick with 12.  Other than SDSU, there just aren't any obvious, P5 worthy, G5's. 

From what I've heard, it was SDSU's time zone that kept them from getting invited.  

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4 minutes ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

If the academic stuff is true, they won't be going anywhere.  They will only consider R1 U's and no one ranked lower than WVU. 

That is just more reason to believe they will stick with 12.  Other than SDSU, there just aren't any obvious, P5 worthy G's. 

From what I've heard, it was SDSU's time zone that kept them from getting invited.  

 

I've heard the same things.

From everything I've gathered, Memphis and BSU will be anchors in their current homes for a good long time. 

The B1G has a similar approach with the AAU status.

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2 hours ago, Ibanez said:

The new Going For Two Podcast is out with Matt Brown. The guy who got the AAC poaching MWC teams rolling and has a good track record.

Colorado State and Air Force is not leaving because of money or better competition. They are leaving because Boise State and San Diego State are expected to be gone in four years to a P5 conference. It is a move about positioning and as a school out west, they feel they need to get on a conference out east while they can.

Here ya go @Did I hear a WOOSH? The AAC is losing their value. What Hair said was correct. This makes the second reliable insider (I'm not counting The Athletic) to say this. As usual you're wrong.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/realignment-musical-chairs/id1549029012?i=1000536263303

Also, we will use RSF's favorite podcast 16 team super conferences will happen and the Big 12 will probably be the next to do it. I was told Boise, Memphis, USF, and either San Diego State or SMU was the next four to get invited. But for whatever reason, no other team can be invited til OU and UT are gone.

 

 

I listened to the podcast and I agree with the comments that SDSU leadership is acting like they know something. I will take it one further because no one will believe me anyway (honestly I don't believe what I've been told). For some reason they have believed we will be going to the Big12 since about 2018 or 2019. I've heard this from just about as far up as you can go in the AD...

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Bob said:

the most BYU thing ever. Straight embarrassing.

It's funny - but mostly because BYU is the classic "danger zone" candidate.  There is a lot of projection in that chart.

They are like a Hot 7.5, and a Crazy 10.   Curious to see how the XII situation goes for them.

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Just now, Ibanez said:

They will probably believe you. They just won't believe anything positive about Boise State. That seems to be the rule.

Well I don't believe it because no one knew then that UT and OU would be leaving at this time for the SEC. What is more believable is they were told that if we get the campus expansion and stadium we would be on a short list. We may still be on a short list, but if we sit on our heels and things change in a way that harms SDSU (i.e. BSU, CSU, AFA leaves for AAC) heads will roll in the AD. So it's either a ballsy gamble, or they know something they aren't sharing. 

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19 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

That's believable because one of the requirements was facility upgrades. Obviously Boise State is looking into it, all of the sudden USF is looking into it, SDSU and CSU did it. SMU is now doing it.

JMO, but I get the feeling that if Boise really is the next one in, SDSU is coming with. Memphis has been great at football for the last decade but they are a lot like us....long spells of poor performance in the past that could potentially return. If you are gambling you hedge by taking the one who provides the most value, whether they are performing or not. I'm actually blown away by how similar our historical performance charts below. 

image.png.2532f535b48d6514fdac12cb12da3a15.png

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25 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

Im the one who told you it was the time zone that kept than out but things change I guess. How many insiders and sports reporters have to mention Boise State and Memphis before you all start to believe it? I know you believe nothing I say even though I mentioned Boise State was in their top 4 before anyone else mentioned them at all, but seriously, what's it gonna take for you to believe it? Academics don't matter anymore unless it's the Big 10 or PAC-12. And even the PAC-12 has said they needed to be more open about realignment.

It just boggles my mind that you all just dismiss every report from whoever says it.

It kind of "boggles my mind" that you don't think academics matter. To me, it makes perfect sense that university presidents, who actually get to vote on expansion, would only want R1 universities. 

The academic issue is a lot more believable than believing they are going to expand again, after TX & OU leave, just for the hell of it.   

What's also true in Boise's case, is they don't really bring anything to the table other than football, which isn't as good as it used to be. That is not enough to be attractive to a conference that doesn't really need to add anyone.  If football goes south, all you've added is a welfare school. 

If am I reading all of this incorrectly, and BSU does get the call, I will be among the first to congratulate the Bronco's.  I just don't see it happening. 

 

 

 

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While I get why academic dorks (university presidents) care about academics, because that is their entire life.  In reality it doesn't matter and is so dumb that they focus on it.  I was a hiring manager at a large IT company that required a degree.  All we looked at was did you have a degree? Did we care if you were from an R1 school or AAU school, or any of this crap? No. Didn't even slightly pay attention to it. The only thing that would slightly catch our eye was maybe if you were like IVY league.  Other than that we could care less where you went....Or maybe if you had BYU it would be a negative just because we wanted fun people to booze during team building activities.

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6 minutes ago, jewelz4562000 said:

While I get why academic dorks (university presidents) care about academics, because that is their entire life.  In reality it doesn't matter and is so dumb that they focus on it.  I was a hiring manager at a large IT company that required a degree.  All we looked at was did you have a degree? Did we care if you were from an R1 school or AAU school, or any of this crap? No. Didn't even slightly pay attention to it. The only thing that would slightly catch our eye was maybe if you were like IVY league.  Other than that we could care less where you went.

You have to wonder, especially watching the PAC12, will academic snobbery lead to "ivy leaguing" your conference? If you are the B12 you have to understand that no one outside of those presidents really cares if Boise is R1 or whatever...something's gotta give. 

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7 minutes ago, DarkwingBronco said:

Everything, EVERYTHING, is negotiable.

Of course it is.  But OUT will not simply walk away.  They will pay thru the nose to get out early.  That is already expected to happen.  No additional chaos.

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7 minutes ago, jewelz4562000 said:

While I get why academic dorks (university presidents) care about academics, because that is their entire life.  In reality it doesn't matter and is so dumb that they focus on it.  I was a hiring manager at a large IT company that required a degree.  All we looked at was did you have a degree? Did we care if you were from an R1 school or AAU school, or any of this crap? No. Didn't even slightly pay attention to it. The only thing that would slightly catch our eye was maybe if you were like IVY league.  Other than that we could care less where you went....Or maybe if you had BYU it would be a negative just because we wanted fun people to booze during team building activities.

I can see it if you're the BIG, ACC, or PAC.  I can see why the B12 presidents would prefer R1 universities, but IMO, not having R1 status shouldn't be a deal breaker. 

To the best of my knowledge BYU, is not a R1 university, but they are ranked in the top 100 and have some very good programs. 

 

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