Conference Realignment thread

[WarriorTyme]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:06 PM, SteedLaw said:

Did we learn that?

I think all we learned is that:

(1) Gloria made a big mistake overvaluing AFA and UNLV over USU.

(2) The PAC is eventually going to rebuild to the requisite number of football teams, even if they have to go one or two slots under the top remaining targets in both conferences (and maybe also the Sun Belt) to get there. 

There is no question the PAC carried the day yesterday, not the other way around. 

I think after the lawsuit fails, because it's hard to break a contract when both parties had lawyers to craft the contract and entered into it willingly. The lawsuit might delay the payments, but the PAC-12 will have to pony up the $$$$ Millions owed, and the only way out is to negotiate a Merger before the MWC starts adding schools like New Mexico State, UTEP, Montana, Montana State, etc. 

Nobody is blaming Utah State for jumping over after the fact, USU wasn't the ones that started this numb nutted idea. It was Teresa Gould, mostly OSU and SDSU are the likely culprits that sold a bull jive bills of goods to WSU, BSU, FSU, CSU that they could secure Tulane, Memphis, USF and UTSA to make a best of the rest G5 conference. Of course, I have no insider info but come on OSU, SDSU media and fans always thought there are P4 football. Teresa Gould was trying to save her job from Gloria Nevarez taking over with a merger and it backfired big time and $Millions need to paid by the PAC12 and BSU, FSU, CSU, SDSU in a time of upcoming global recession that is about to hit the US economy in late 2025 or early 2026. 

Knowing the upcoming economic climate prognosis is going to be poor and it might be teetering between stagflation and recession. Getting loans to payout the millions owed is not going to be as easy or cheap, even with the 1/2 percent rate drop by the Fed Central Bank just did this month. The Fed cuts rates when unemployment is ticking up, it's expecting more job cuts and shrinkage to the economic $$$$ output. Fed rate cuts are bad news economically when fighting inflation and there will be fans that lose their jobs next year and cannot support their team monetarily.

It would have been economically prudent for all involved to wait for the free merger in 2026. I guess there is always chance that the schools MWC that left the MWC could talk SDSU and OSU into negotiating a full merger to eliminate the exit & poaching fees. 

[SteedLaw]

On 9/25/2024 at 12:11 PM, WarriorTyme said:

I think after the lawsuit fails, because it's hard to break a contract when both parties had lawyers to craft the contract and entered into it willingly. The lawsuit might delay the payments, but the PAC-12 will have to pony up the $$$$ Millions owed, and the only way out is to negotiate a Merger before the MWC starts adding schools like New Mexico State, UTEP, Montana, Montana State, etc. 

Nobody is blaming Utah State for jumping over after the fact, USU wasn't the ones that started this numb nutted idea. It was Teresa Gould, mostly OSU and SDSU are the likely culprits that sold a bull jive bills of goods to WSU, BSU, FSU, CSU that they could secure Tulane, Memphis, USF and UTSA to make a best of the rest G5 conference. Of course, I have no insider info but come on OSU, SDSU media and fans always thought there are P4 football. Teresa Gould was trying to save her job from Gloria Nevarez taking over with a merger and it backfired big time and $Millions need to paid by the PAC12 and BSU, FSU, CSU, SDSU in a time of upcoming global recession that is about to hit the US economy in late 2025 or early 2026. 

Knowing the upcoming economic climate prognosis is going to be poor and it might be teetering between stagflation and recession. Getting loans to payout the millions owed is not going to be as easy or cheap, even with the 1/2 percent rate drop by the Fed Central Bank just did this month. The Fed cuts rates when unemployment is ticking up, it's expecting more job cuts and shrinkage to the economic $$$$ output. Fed rate cuts are bad news economically when fighting inflation and there will be fans that lose their jobs next year and cannot support their team monetarily.

It would have been economically prudent for all involved to wait for the free merger in 2026. I guess there is always chance that the schools MWC that left the MWC could talk SDSU and OSU into negotiating a full merger to eliminate the exit & poaching fees. 

Blangiardi assembles team to try to gain admittance into Pac-12 for Hawaii football | Honolulu Star-Advertiser (staradvertiser.com)

It is pretty clear that the PAC is going to be successful in their effort to rebuild at this juncture. The impossible hurdle (which they somehow made  successfully -- I still can't really believe it) was to get Boise, CSU, SDSU, and Fresno to defect. Adding USU to the mix was just an added bonus for them. 

It is now very apparent that whether UNLV/AFA/Memphis/USF (et al) accept an invite or not, others will if they won't. 

The message is clear: if the PAC sends you an invite, you need to accept it. Otherwise, they will just go one step below you and steal members from your same conference -- and you will be left holding the bag.  

 

Edit (My Point): Everyone is acting like all eyes are on UNLV and AFA. I really don't think that is true anymore. While I think the PAC would WANT UNLV and AFA, I don't think they feel they NEED them anymore. Either join up or watch as others take your invite.

[MissionTrails]

On 9/25/2024 at 11:11 AM, WarriorTyme said:

I think after the lawsuit fails, because it's hard to break a contract when both parties had lawyers to craft the contract and entered into it willingly. The lawsuit might delay the payments, but the PAC-12 will have to pony up the $$$$ Millions owed, and the only way out is to negotiate a Merger before the MWC starts adding schools like New Mexico State, UTEP, Montana, Montana State, etc. 

Nobody is blaming Utah State for jumping over after the fact, USU wasn't the ones that started this numb nutted idea. It was Teresa Gould, mostly OSU and SDSU are the likely culprits that sold a bull jive bills of goods to WSU, BSU, FSU, CSU that they could secure Tulane, Memphis, USF and UTSA to make a best of the rest G5 conference. Of course, I have no insider info but come on OSU, SDSU media and fans always thought there are P4 football. Teresa Gould was trying to save her job from Gloria Nevarez taking over with a merger and it backfired big time and $Millions need to paid by the PAC12 and BSU, FSU, CSU, SDSU in a time of upcoming global recession that is about to hit the US economy in late 2025 or early 2026. 

Knowing the upcoming economic climate prognosis is going to be poor and it might be teetering between stagflation and recession. Getting loans to payout the millions owed is not going to be as easy or cheap, even with the 1/2 percent rate drop by the Fed Central Bank just did this month. The Fed cuts rates when unemployment is ticking up, it's expecting more job cuts and shrinkage to the economic $$$$ output. Fed rate cuts are bad news economically when fighting inflation and there will be fans that lose their jobs next year and cannot support their team monetarily.

It would have been economically prudent for all involved to wait for the free merger in 2026. I guess there is always chance that the schools MWC that left the MWC could talk SDSU and OSU into negotiating a full merger to eliminate the exit & poaching fees. 

LOL, thanks for the vote of confidence, but SDSU in no way, shape or form is driving the PAC12 ship. At least no more than any of the other 6 current members. We're sorry, I guess, that our school offends some of you for trying to improve our standing. Four other fanbases whose fans were calling us traitors a year ago, have now seemingly changed their tune. It's funny what self-preservation does to the psyche.

[WarriorTyme]

On 9/25/2024 at 1:21 PM, SteedLaw said:

Blangiardi assembles team to try to gain admittance into Pac-12 for Hawaii football | Honolulu Star-Advertiser (staradvertiser.com)

It is pretty clear that the PAC is going to be successful in their effort to rebuild at this juncture. The impossible hurdle (which they somehow made  successfully -- I still can't really believe it) was to get Boise, CSU, SDSU, and Fresno to defect. Adding USU to the mix was just an added bonus for them. 

It is now very apparent that whether UNLV/AFA/Memphis/USF (et al) accept an invite or not, others will if they won't. 

The message is clear: if the PAC sends you an invite, you need to accept it. Otherwise, they will just go one step below you and steal members from your same conference -- and you will be left holding the bag.  

 

Edit (My Point): Everyone is acting like all eyes are on UNLV and AFA. I really don't think that is true anymore. While I think the PAC would WANT UNLV and AFA, I don't think they feel they NEED them anymore. Either join up or watch as others take your invite.

I know Hawaii just like many others are working the behind the scenes to find what works best for them. And Hawaii football only exit fee is around $3-$4 million. But this could have gone better and cheaper. Except for those who egos actually thought they were P4 and they got a rude awakening by those G-5 Texas and East Coast schools that said no to flying all sports commercial and was not going to get a charter flights. It never made any financial or logistical sense for San Antonio located G-5 schools like UTSA or Texas State because it is easier and cheaper because of regionality and recruiting hotbeds of AAC & Sunbelt. Tulane is closer the USTA, Texas State and Memphis as well. USF is the one that is way too far to join another G-5 conference on the West Coast. 

At least the OSU/WSU media, fan and alumni have tested the market and now know their value in college football as an upper echelon MWC 2.0 G5 conference that has the potential to make a G-5 playoff spot for the time being. Listen, Hawaii loves all the MWC schools and would like to keep those traditions going. As much as Rebel Robert gets on all of our nerves, Hawaiians love Las Vegas. So much so that it's earned the nickname the Ninth Island... the combo of Hawaii/UNLV always draws in huge attendance numbers. 

[Beaver-Poke]

The lawsuit is not going to fail. If it even goes to trial (which it won't, IMHO), the "poaching" provision will be found to be an illegal restraint of trade, and thus unenforceable, and as such it won't matter if both parties signed it. 

I believe the lawsuit will lead to a settlement, probably in the range of $2-3 million per school. UNLV and Gonzaga will become Pac-9 members. The MWC will get between $10-15 million from the Pac and much more from the departing teams, and use that money to rebuild, just as the Pac rebuilt by using exit penalties paid by its departing members.

Both leagues will get on with life, and probably continue to play against each other because it's in the best interest of the teams, no matter what the MWC commissioner might want. I know OSU has future football games scheduled against UNM and SJSU. Those are good matchups and it would be foolish to cancel them. 

I'm sorry the full reverse merger didn't work. But trying to extort $30 million from the Pac-2 for 14 football games that were overprices at $14 million this year wasn't a strong or smart move. In fact, it started the process that ultimately will make the new Pac-9 the top West Coast-based football and men's basketball conference.

 

[UofMTigers]

On 9/25/2024 at 12:48 PM, Dirtball said:

I always assumed the P2 would offer up to 11 million towards exit fees, as that was the poaching fee from the MWC. However, it turns out the P2 never intended to pay the poaching fee.

we were hearing between 8-9 million per AAC team (and that was when the assumed exit fee was 18 million) to go towards their buyouts. we also assumed Navigate would have used the last year to get valuations from Fox/CW so their 'payout estimates' would have some sort of real network numbers backing them up.

[UofMTigers]

On 9/25/2024 at 1:21 PM, SteedLaw said:

Blangiardi assembles team to try to gain admittance into Pac-12 for Hawaii football | Honolulu Star-Advertiser (staradvertiser.com)

It is pretty clear that the PAC is going to be successful in their effort to rebuild at this juncture. The impossible hurdle (which they somehow made  successfully -- I still can't really believe it) was to get Boise, CSU, SDSU, and Fresno to defect. Adding USU to the mix was just an added bonus for them. 

It is now very apparent that whether UNLV/AFA/Memphis/USF (et al) accept an invite or not, others will if they won't. 

The message is clear: if the PAC sends you an invite, you need to accept it. Otherwise, they will just go one step below you and steal members from your same conference -- and you will be left holding the bag.  

 

Edit (My Point): Everyone is acting like all eyes are on UNLV and AFA. I really don't think that is true anymore. While I think the PAC would WANT UNLV and AFA, I don't think they feel they NEED them anymore. Either join up or watch as others take your invite.

but are those types of programs enough to get that 10-12 million payout per year? I mean, there is a reason Memphis, Tulane, and USF were the primary AAC targets.

[Rosegreen]

On 9/25/2024 at 11:21 AM, SteedLaw said:

Blangiardi assembles team to try to gain admittance into Pac-12 for Hawaii football | Honolulu Star-Advertiser (staradvertiser.com)

It is pretty clear that the PAC is going to be successful in their effort to rebuild at this juncture. The impossible hurdle (which they somehow made  successfully -- I still can't really believe it) was to get Boise, CSU, SDSU, and Fresno to defect. Adding USU to the mix was just an added bonus for them. 

It is now very apparent that whether UNLV/AFA/Memphis/USF (et al) accept an invite or not, others will if they won't. 

The message is clear: if the PAC sends you an invite, you need to accept it. Otherwise, they will just go one step below you and steal members from your same conference -- and you will be left holding the bag.  

 

Edit (My Point): Everyone is acting like all eyes are on UNLV and AFA. I really don't think that is true anymore. While I think the PAC would WANT UNLV and AFA, I don't think they feel they NEED them anymore. Either join up or watch as others take your invite.

PAC can’t just go “lower” to fill out the conference. They need markets to achieve their goal of a higher revenue distribution via media contracts. 
 

Say New Mexico turns down the pac, inviting NMSU isn’t going to net the same amount of revenue as it could have. PAC doesn’t have the leverage until it gets a contract. 

[EvilPoke]

On 9/25/2024 at 6:01 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

The lawsuit is not going to fail. If it even goes to trial (which it won't, IMHO), the "poaching" provision will be found to be an illegal restraint of trade, and thus unenforceable, and as such it won't matter if both parties signed it. 

I believe the lawsuit will lead to a settlement, probably in the range of $2-3 million per school. UNLV and Gonzaga will become Pac-9 members. The MWC will get between $10-15 million from the Pac and much more from the departing teams, and use that money to rebuild, just as the Pac rebuilt by using exit penalties paid by its departing members.

Both leagues will get on with life, and probably continue to play against each other because it's in the best interest of the teams, no matter what the MWC commissioner might want. I know OSU has future football games scheduled against UNM and SJSU. Those are good matchups and it would be foolish to cancel them. 

I'm sorry the full reverse merger didn't work. But trying to extort $30 million from the Pac-2 for 14 football games that were overprices at $14 million this year wasn't a strong or smart move. In fact, it started the process that ultimately will make the new Pac-9 the top West Coast-based football and men's basketball conference.

 

The Pac-2 never had any intention of a reverse merger. 

[utgrizfan]

On 9/25/2024 at 6:01 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

The lawsuit is not going to fail. If it even goes to trial (which it won't, IMHO), the "poaching" provision will be found to be an illegal restraint of trade, and thus unenforceable, and as such it won't matter if both parties signed it. 

I believe the lawsuit will lead to a settlement, probably in the range of $2-3 million per school. UNLV and Gonzaga will become Pac-9 members. The MWC will get between $10-15 million from the Pac and much more from the departing teams, and use that money to rebuild, just as the Pac rebuilt by using exit penalties paid by its departing members.

Both leagues will get on with life, and probably continue to play against each other because it's in the best interest of the teams, no matter what the MWC commissioner might want. I know OSU has future football games scheduled against UNM and SJSU. Those are good matchups and it would be foolish to cancel them. 

I'm sorry the full reverse merger didn't work. But trying to extort $30 million from the Pac-2 for 14 football games that were overprices at $14 million this year wasn't a strong or smart move. In fact, it started the process that ultimately will make the new Pac-9 the top West Coast-based football and men's basketball conference.

 

There is no way they're going to win this lawsuit, they're hoping for a settlement and they're not going to get it. You don't get to agree and sign a Contract (you WERE NOT UNDER DURESS, could have scheduled multiple FCS schools or paid individual teams) and then throw a fit and try to back out when the conditions are enforced. Let alone when most of your new members ALSO AGREED when they were on the other side. 

You will lose the lawsuit, you won't be able to free up more $$ for the desired AAC schools and this backfill plan will continue to stumble and flail around until you settle on Plan W as the final outcome.

And funny enough there's probably a good chance that the MWC wouldn't have increased the price to 30 million (again they didn't HAVE TO HELP YOU) if they weren't aware of the fact you were talking to select MWC schools behind their back. You reap what you sow.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 9/25/2024 at 9:47 AM, BoiseStateOfMind said:

This rings hollow coming from someone whose school lucked out and got a golden ticket out of the AAC. I remember all the same things being said about the Big 12 when they invited UCF that are being said about the PAC now, but it didn't deter UCF from still pouncing on the opportunity to advance themselves.

Memphis, like Boise State, has never gotten anything but a swift kick to the nuts in realignment. They finally got an opportunity to climb the ladder and used short-term money as an excuse to turn it down when they have rich donors. It's unfortunate for the fans who were hoping for better games to attend.

From an emotional standpoint I can understand where you’re coming from but I said my piece from a place of objectivity.  UCF is wholly unrelated to this but make no mistake they earned their luck, if you were aware of the nut kickings we got in realignment wars you wouldn’t have opened with this.  Respectfully the conversation is completely different now vs 2019.

Memphis/aac et al made a decision based on what’s smart, not what felt good.  If I were a fan of one of those schools I would applaud their resolve, while also encouraging to be active in improving their situation.  There is not a single way moving to the pac as is improves any schools’ position in the aac.  The PAC is woefully incompetent, and has shown little ability to learn from their own mistakes or read the room.  Plus they literally don’t have a way to pay the schools they’re inviting…and they sold their conference to the mwc-4 based on numbers that included aac schools- which is stupid.  The only thing more stupid at this point is the mwc-4 that agreed to the current terms.

Its depressing for the mwc as the pac is destroying western sports right now.

[Someone Else]

3 hours ago, Beaver-Poke said:

The lawsuit is not going to fail. If it even goes to trial (which it won't, IMHO), the "poaching" provision will be found to be an illegal restraint of trade, and thus unenforceable, and as such it won't matter if both parties signed it. 

I believe the lawsuit will lead to a settlement, probably in the range of $2-3 million per school. UNLV and Gonzaga will become Pac-9 members. The MWC will get between $10-15 million from the Pac and much more from the departing teams, and use that money to rebuild, just as the Pac rebuilt by using exit penalties paid by its departing members.

Both leagues will get on with life, and probably continue to play against each other because it's in the best interest of the teams, no matter what the MWC commissioner might want. I know OSU has future football games scheduled against UNM and SJSU. Those are good matchups and it would be foolish to cancel them. 

I'm sorry the full reverse merger didn't work. But trying to extort $30 million from the Pac-2 for 14 football games that were overprices at $14 million this year wasn't a strong or smart move. In fact, it started the process that ultimately will make the new Pac-9 the top West Coast-based football and men's basketball conference.

 

Seems like a reasonable outcome.  

I am sure most of the fans of the left behind school will disagree but you are correct the settlement amount will be much less than what they think they are getting.

On a separate note, If I were UNLV I would join the new PAC yesterday but I am not sure that is what they will do.  Like Memphis they are hedging their bets thinking the B12 (or ACC in Memphis's case) will come calling... maybe they will.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 9/25/2024 at 8:01 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

The lawsuit is not going to fail. If it even goes to trial (which it won't, IMHO), the "poaching" provision will be found to be an illegal restraint of trade, and thus unenforceable, and as such it won't matter if both parties signed it. 

I believe the lawsuit will lead to a settlement, probably in the range of $2-3 million per school. UNLV and Gonzaga will become Pac-9 members. The MWC will get between $10-15 million from the Pac and much more from the departing teams, and use that money to rebuild, just as the Pac rebuilt by using exit penalties paid by its departing members.

Both leagues will get on with life, and probably continue to play against each other because it's in the best interest of the teams, no matter what the MWC commissioner might want. I know OSU has future football games scheduled against UNM and SJSU. Those are good matchups and it would be foolish to cancel them. 

I'm sorry the full reverse merger didn't work. But trying to extort $30 million from the Pac-2 for 14 football games that were overprices at $14 million this year wasn't a strong or smart move. In fact, it started the process that ultimately will make the new Pac-9 the top West Coast-based football and men's basketball conference.

 

The lawsuit will fail because it is garbage.  They are attempting to negotiate the numbers down but instead of hammering it out like grownups (like big 12 and aac ultimately did, for example) behind the scenes they’re trying to play it out in the court of public opinion, hoping schools are pressured to capitulate to their terms so they can use saved money to draw more schools.  It won’t work, only small changes will occur at this point, certainly not enough to lure bigger brands to the conference .  It’s all been done backwards and I feel for the new pac members and remaining mwc members.

[UofMTigers]

some info I found interesting...these numbers are from FY 2023

https://csnbbs.com/thread-997799.html

Quote

American
$12.2M - TULANE UNIVERSITY
$9.5M - UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
$8.9M - SOUTHERN METHODIST UNIVERSITY
$8.9M - UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI
$8.9M - UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS
$8.8M - EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY
$8.8M - UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON
$8.3M - TEMPLE UNIVERSITY
$8.2M - UNIVERSITY OF TULSA
$8.1M - UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
$6.7M - UNITED STATES NAVAL ACADEMY
$2.4M - WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofi...02815/full

MWC
$7.9M - BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY
$5.9M - UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY
$5.8M - UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING
$5.7M - CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY FRESNO
$5.7M - UNITED STATES AIR FORCE ACADEMY
$5.6M - SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY
$5.2M - UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA LAS VEGAS
$5.2M - UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA
$5.1M - COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY
$5.1M - UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO
$1.5M - UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII
$70K - SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofi...14232/full

 

factor in the exit fees kicking-in from Cincy, Houston, UCF, and SMU which are paid out to the remaining AAC members (not the new adds) over 8 years along with yearly 150-200k auto escalators in the ESPN contract means Memphis would be making pretty much the same in the AAC as the Pac-12.

[WAC_FAN]

From the interview with the Hawaii AD the other night, it seemed that UH's preference was to take it's money and stay in the MWC for now. (And maybe petition the MWC for all-sports membership if a financial deal could be arranged)

[utgrizfan]

READ IT AND WEEP PAC TRAITORS 

https://x.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1839144977261035931?t=veP7hnMzw_GII1jPr_nDmA&s=19

[WAC_FAN]

The two members are leaving in 2026, but we can get a 2-year waiver (like the P2 and WAC got) so we really have until 2028.

[utgrizfan]

Estimated 140 million (PAC won't win their case) minus 50 for the payouts to UNLV + AF leaves 90 Million.

-UTEP + NMSU: 10 Million? (don't know CUSA Exit Fees)

-Montana, MSU, Sac State: 15 Million

Based on this leaves 65 million for other MWC schools to pad their pockets (Wyoming may want to spend it on a new Coach)

[BestintheWest]

Damnnnnn. Can't pass up $25-30 million.

 

Especially if its gonna cost $20million just to be in MWC 2.0

 

Thats a $40 million dollar swing....

 

PAY BARRY ODOM BABY!!!!!

 

 

[Rosegreen]

MWC has ammo to lure Gonzaga and Grand Canyon to join the conference as basketball only. 
 

But as we all know, football drives the bus. Once the conference gets stability and new schools added, maybe use (if any) left over cash on building up the basketball brand for the conference.