Conference Realignment thread

[Aggie84025]

This whole thing is dumb in IMO.  All the 12 MWC teams had to do was to stay put and within 2ish years OSU/WSU would have come crawling with their tails between their legs asking for a merger or reverse merger.  IMO that would be one fun conference with the 14 teams.  As it stands now teams are paying a whole bunch of money to basically be playing in a similar conference.  Just pure insanity in my mind.

[SteedLaw]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:52 AM, spc_ops said:

That is true about market size but Boise pulls in way more viewership than it's own market. Fresno brings in extra eyes too. It's gonna be a fun conference.

It is going to be a fun conference and I am glad we get to keep what is becoming a fun rivalry with BSU and CSU on the table. I am certain it was a hard decision last night, but the Aggies made the right choice for them given where things have been heading the last two weeks. This is especially true if the PAC can now land Gonzaga and UConn this week.

And, speaking of Gonzaga and UConn, those two should be the next priority. And, when I say UConn, I mean UConn in all sports -- including BB. If the PAC has to take another team or two from the NE to make it worth it to UConn, then so be it. But Gonzaga and UConn in all sports are the next priorities. 

[spc_ops]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:39 AM, SteedLaw said:

It is going to be a fun conference and I am glad we get to keep what is becoming a fun rivalry with BSU and CSU on the table. I am certain it was a hard decision last night, but the Aggies made the right choice for them given where things have been heading the last two weeks. This is especially true if the PAC can now land Gonzaga and UConn this week.

And, speaking of Gonzaga and UConn, those two should be the next priority. And, when I say UConn, I mean UConn in all sports -- including BB. If the PAC has to take another team or two from the NE to make it worth it to UConn, then so be it. But Gonzaga and UConn in all sports are the next priorities. 

Uconn is a tough one for me unless you could make another run at Memphis too. Can you imagine having Memphis, Uconn, and Gonzaga in your BB conference. Pipe dream.

[SteedLaw]

On 9/24/2024 at 9:36 AM, Aggie84025 said:

This whole thing is dumb in IMO.  All the 12 MWC teams had to do was to stay put and within 2ish years OSU/WSU would have come crawling with their tails between their legs asking for a merger or reverse merger.  IMO that would be one fun conference with the 14 teams.  As it stands now teams are paying a whole bunch of money to basically be playing in a similar conference.  Just pure insanity in my mind.

You are not wrong, but that genie went out of the bottle two weeks ago, and it is not going back in. Aggies made the right move yesterday, took a mature and objective lay of the land, didn't cry over spilled milk, and made the best out of what was originally a situation for them and, ultimately, now have a really good path forward. 

It is everyman for himself at this point and has been for the last two weeks. Thinking about what might have been is not going to help -- what is done is done. 

 

[SteedLaw]

On 9/24/2024 at 9:46 AM, spc_ops said:

Uconn is a tough one for me unless you could make another run at Memphis too. Can you imagine having Memphis, Uconn, and Gonzaga in your BB conference. Pipe dream.

Oh, that is the plan, right? Add Gonzaga and UConn in all sports, then reapproach Memphis saying, "Was that your final answer?"

My guess is you would get a different result. 

[thedude15]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:36 AM, Aggie84025 said:

This whole thing is dumb in IMO.  All the 12 MWC teams had to do was to stay put and within 2ish years OSU/WSU would have come crawling with their tails between their legs asking for a merger or reverse merger.  IMO that would be one fun conference with the 14 teams.  As it stands now teams are paying a whole bunch of money to basically be playing in a similar conference.  Just pure insanity in my mind.

It is also possible if the MW stayed put the Pac then spends their warchest on paying the buyout fees of 4 AAC schools and then just take whichever schools from the MW can afford to buy their way in. So far USU is the only one that has shown they can do that. So in that case it would be Oregon State, Wash State, Tulane/Memphis/USF/UTSA (with buyouts paid) and then the "we will pay 2.5 mil of the buyout" offer to whichever MW schools agree to it. 

So in the end the MW was gonna take a hit just a question of how big. 

[CAM THE RAM]

Not sure I understand the UConn play. Why would the Pac 12 want them for Football only? 

[UofMTigers]

On 9/24/2024 at 10:39 AM, SteedLaw said:

It is going to be a fun conference and I am glad we get to keep what is becoming a fun rivalry with BSU and CSU on the table. I am certain it was a hard decision last night, but the Aggies made the right choice for them given where things have been heading the last two weeks. This is especially true if the PAC can now land Gonzaga and UConn this week.

And, speaking of Gonzaga and UConn, those two should be the next priority. And, when I say UConn, I mean UConn in all sports -- including BB. If the PAC has to take another team or two from the NE to make it worth it to UConn, then so be it. But Gonzaga and UConn in all sports are the next priorities. 

you don't know UConn...they aren't leaving the BE. (it would also mean they wasted 20.5 million leaving the AAC and joining the BE)

[Aggie84025]

On 9/24/2024 at 9:49 AM, SteedLaw said:

You are not wrong, but that genie went out of the bottle two weeks ago, and it is not going back in. Aggies made the right move yesterday, took a mature and objective lay of the land, didn't cry over spilled milk, and made the best out of what was originally a situation for them and, ultimately, now have a really good path forward. 

It is everyman for himself at this point and has been for the last two weeks. Thinking about what might have been is not going to help -- what is done is done. 

 

I agree wholeheartedly the Aggies made the right move yesterday i was just pointing out that i wish no teams would have left and forced OSU/WSU to come crawling for help in a few years.

[bigd]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:58 AM, CAM THE RAM said:

Not sure I understand the UConn play. Why would the Pac 12 want them for Football only? 

Desperation, I'd imagine it's just a contingency plan if they aren't able to get UNLV, Texas State or anyone else to join. 

[LoFasZz]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:36 AM, Aggie84025 said:

This whole thing is dumb in IMO.  All the 12 MWC teams had to do was to stay put and within 2ish years OSU/WSU would have come crawling with their tails between their legs asking for a merger or reverse merger.  IMO that would be one fun conference with the 14 teams.  As it stands now teams are paying a whole bunch of money to basically be playing in a similar conference.  Just pure insanity in my mind.

Yep I’ve hated this move from the get go. Wait out OSU/wsu and if they think they’re too good to join let their programs die 

[SteedLaw]

On 9/24/2024 at 10:19 AM, Aggie84025 said:

I agree wholeheartedly the Aggies made the right move yesterday i was just pointing out that i wish no teams would have left and forced OSU/WSU to come crawling for help in a few years.

Yep. I agree. 

[cardrater]

On 9/24/2024 at 4:27 AM, CAM THE RAM said:

By the time the dust has settled 9 teams from the MWC will be in the Pac12, AAC and CUSA. The conference will dissolve, and no exit fees will be paid to the remaining teams. The Pac12 will add Gonzaga and it will rival the Big East as a basketball conference. In addition, the Pac 12 conference will have Football to add to the value of the conference (which the Big East does not have at the moment). 

I believe legalized gambling is driving college sports more than ever. High profiled West Coast games will be a MUST for Draft Kings, Fan Duel, MGM, Etc... given the late-night time slot. Being a "Power" conference will become irrelevant within the next decade. College football will need a true west coast conference to fill a void. People laugh about Pac 12 Football now but that will change. But there is no denying the Pac 12 will be an incredible basketball conference! 

Ummm… Even if there’s two teams left in the mountain west… There’s no way they’re going to jump ship and abandon $250-$300 million in exit fee money.  
There’s always gonna be a couple schools that are too prideful to go down and well instead try to build the conference with their newfound treasure trove.  See the Leftovers like WSU and Oregon State.

And I’m sorry what makes a conference a power conference is its ability to drive in the media market. The Pac 12 will never have that again. Unless if you’re super confident the bumbling rams, the great city of Pullman, or Cache valley is going to bring in $$$?  And you’re right… The Pac 12 will become an incredible basketball conference if it’s able to pull in Gonzaga and others. But as of now… Pulling in 13-19 Oregon State, Fresno State and a rebuilt CSU isn’t much of a super flex in basketball. 

[CAM THE RAM]

On 9/24/2024 at 10:47 AM, cardrater said:

Ummm… Even if there’s two teams left in the mountain west… There’s no way they’re going to jump ship and abandon $250-$300 million in exit fee money.  
There’s always gonna be a couple schools that are too prideful to go down and well instead try to build the conference with their newfound treasure trove.  See the Leftovers like WSU and Oregon State.

And I’m sorry what makes a conference a power conference is its ability to drive in the media market. The Pac 12 will never have that again. Unless if you’re super confident the bumbling rams, the great city of Pullman, or Cache valley is going to bring in $$$?  And you’re right… The Pac 12 will be coming incredible basketball conference if it’s able to pull in Gonzaga and others. But as of now… Pulling in 13-19 Oregon State, Fresno State and a rebuilt CSU isn’t much of a super flex in basketball. 

 

I misspoke on the exit fee, bad information. Followed that up with another post. Some confusion in the media on who gets to vote at this point. 

Mark Few has plans to retire soon. Gonzaga needs to think about the next 25 years and not the past 25 years.  They need a landing spot that makes sense. 

It's obvious that College Football is heading for a massive split. There will be 135 FBS teams next year. The PAC 12 will never be the SEC or Big 10 but the writing is on the wall that the next chapter of college football is coming soon.  It will not include all 135 teams and maybe it won't include the PAC-12 but they had to try something. 

[motohead]

Canzano reporting this: John Canzano on X: "Pac-12 has filed a complaint in the Northern District of CA, asking a judge to declare section 7.01 of the conference’s scheduling agreement (Read: poaching penalties) with Mountain West as unenforceable. Pac-12 believes the poaching penalty is an antitrust violation." / X

[Raz]

The PAC12 should change its name to the Zombie 7, a horror show of a conference.  Nickname must change as well, instead of "Conference of Champions" the "Conference of the Living Dead" is apt.

[smithy]

This will now make the PAC focus on schools outside of the MW to poach..Texas you're up.  UNT, Texas State, UTEP and maybe even NMSU. What the PAC needs is expansion into the central time zone to keep CW happy.

[SteedLaw]

On 9/24/2024 at 10:47 AM, cardrater said:

Ummm… Even if there’s two teams left in the mountain west… There’s no way they’re going to jump ship and abandon $250-$300 million in exit fee money.  
There’s always gonna be a couple schools that are too prideful to go down and well instead try to build the conference with their newfound treasure trove.  See the Leftovers like WSU and Oregon State.

And I’m sorry what makes a conference a power conference is its ability to drive in the media market. The Pac 12 will never have that again. Unless if you’re super confident the bumbling rams, the great city of Pullman, or Cache valley is going to bring in $$$?  And you’re right… The Pac 12 will become an incredible basketball conference if it’s able to pull in Gonzaga and others. But as of now… Pulling in 13-19 Oregon State, Fresno State and a rebuilt CSU isn’t much of a super flex in basketball. 

Uh, no. 

College Sports Finances Database (sportico.com)

Yea there are other variables, but this is, at least generally, the master list that makes power conferences power conferences (though, private schools are not reporting). It is all about the money.

The PAC's plan seems pretty simple to me, grab SDSU and then do your best to work down this list. You might have to jump two or three spaces on occasion, but that is fine so long as, ultimately, you place your league as the clear and only next best league. In a world where 6 conference are sending their champion to the CFP, you just have to solidify yourself as the clear sixth best league by average athletic revenues and expenditures per school.

Power really means nothing, especially in long run, if you are sending you league champion to the CFP every year. Ultimately, there will just be the top 6 leagues in college FBS sending their top team. Everyone else is out.

Pretty simple plan really:

Start with:

The clear highest 3 schools on this list not already in a "power league".

1. OSU -- Done (PAC Member)
2. SDSU -- Done (PAC Member)
3. WSU -- Done (PAC Member)

Then work down the list:

The next 15 most relevant players on the list (in order) spread out over all remaining FBS "G5" Conferences (plus Tulane and Navy -- considered private schools not being reported) are:

1. UConn -- Already in deep talks with the PAC; probably will join for at least football.
2. USF -- Still talking to the PAC despite what others are saying.
3. AFA -- Still in the mix.
4. James Madison -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
5. UNLV -- Already in deep talks with the PAC; probably will join this week.
6. Colorado State -- Done (PAC Member)
7. Army -- Still in the mix despite what people say.
8. Memphis -- Still talking to the PAC despite what others are saying.
9. East Carolina -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
10. Boise State -- Done (PAC Member)
11. UMASS -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
12. Old Dominion -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
13. Hawaii -- For sure, they are also talking to the PAC.
14. Fresno State -- Done (PAC Member)
15. Utah State -- Done (PAC Member)
16. Tulane -- Private School (Not reported, but expenditures believed to be in the ranges listed above) -- Still in the mix despite what people say.
17. Navy -- Considered a Private School (Not reported, but expenditures believed to be in the ranges listed above) -- Still in the mix despite what people say.

There are also outliers to consider, especially beyond 2026:

1. Cal -- Can't be too happy with the ACC right now
2. Stanford -- Can't be too happy with the ACC right now
3. SMU -- Can't be too happy with the ACC right now

I mean, if they also add a BB powerhouse like Gonzaga and only get to 12 total football teams (i.e., 12 teams from the 23 on this list in total -- i.e., both the top three and the majority of the rest), then how are they not a "power league" or, at least, the clear BOR league? And, they already have 7 of those (including the clear top 3) -- they need only 5 more to reach that goal.

I mean, you do realize that if they add 5 out of the following 16 remaining potential targets, then there is no disputing their BOR status, right? So, yeah, with the PAC's momentum and massive war chest, what are the chances they DON'T add at least 5 of the following in the next 6 months: Uconn, USF, AFA, James Madison, UNLV, Army, Navy, Memphis, East Carolina, UMass, Old Dominion, Hawaii, Cal, Stanford, Tulane or SMU. To put it bluntly, my guess is Gonzaga, UNLV, Hawaii, AFA, and UConn are "close". Which means, if that is the case, they really only have to get one of the remaining 19 to bite. And, given the prisoner's dilemma here, chances are someone is going to bite. And, boom, the PAC-12 is reborn with 12 football teams and a non-football member that would easily place the league in the top 5 in BB and top 6 in football.

My bet? Gonzaga and UNLV join by the end of the week. AFA might take another few weeks, but will likely follow suit. And, by the end of 2024, the PAC has at least 12 full members and 1 non-football member -- all taken somewhere from this list. 

In which case, they would be the clear BOR league. 

 

 

[SteedLaw]

On 9/24/2024 at 11:32 AM, motohead said:

Canzano reporting this: John Canzano on X: "Pac-12 has filed a complaint in the Northern District of CA, asking a judge to declare section 7.01 of the conference’s scheduling agreement (Read: poaching penalties) with Mountain West as unenforceable. Pac-12 believes the poaching penalty is an antitrust violation." / X

Damn. That is aggressive.

[cardrater]

On 9/24/2024 at 7:57 AM, SteedLaw said:

Uh, no. 

College Sports Finances Database (sportico.com)

Yea there are other variables, but this is, at least generally, the master list that makes power conferences power conferences (though, private schools are not reporting). It is all about the money.

The PAC's plan seems pretty simple to me, grab SDSU and then do your best to work down this list. You might have to jump two or three spaces on occasion, but that is fine so long as, ultimately, you place your league as the clear and only next best league. In a world where 6 conference are sending their champion to the CFP, you just have to solidify yourself as the clear sixth best league by average athletic revenues and expenditures per school.

Power really means nothing, especially in long run, if you are sending you league champion to the CFP every year. Ultimately, there will just be the top 6 leagues in college FBS sending their top team. Everyone else is out.

Pretty simple plan really:

Start with:

The clear highest 3 schools on this list not already in a "power league".

1. OSU -- Done (PAC Member)
2. SDSU -- Done (PAC Member)
3. WSU -- Done (PAC Member)

Then work down the list:

The next 15 most relevant players on the list (in order) spread out over all remaining FBS "G5" Conferences (plus Tulane and Navy -- considered private schools not being reported) are:

1. UConn -- Already in deep talks with the PAC; probably will join for at least football.
2. USF -- Still talking to the PAC despite what others are saying.
3. AFA -- Still in the mix.
4. James Madison -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
5. UNLV -- Already in deep talks with the PAC; probably will join this week.
6. Colorado State -- Done (PAC Member)
7. Army -- Still in the mix despite what people say.
8. Memphis -- Still talking to the PAC despite what others are saying.
9. East Carolina -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
10. Boise State -- Done (PAC Member)
11. UMASS -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
12. Old Dominion -- Are you sure they are not talking to the PAC?
13. Hawaii -- For sure, they are also talking to the PAC.
14. Fresno State -- Done (PAC Member)
15. Utah State -- Done (PAC Member)
16. Tulane -- Private School (Not reported, but expenditures believed to be in the ranges listed above) -- Still in the mix despite what people say.
17. Navy -- Considered a Private School (Not reported, but expenditures believed to be in the ranges listed above) -- Still in the mix despite what people say.

There are also outliers to consider, especially beyond 2026:

1. Cal -- Can't be too happy with the ACC right now
2. Stanford -- Can't be too happy with the ACC right now
3. SMU -- Can't be too happy with the ACC right now

I mean, if they also add a BB powerhouse like Gonzaga and only get to 12 total football teams (i.e., 12 teams from the 23 on this list in total -- i.e., both the top three and the majority of the rest), then how are they not a "power league" or, at least, the clear BOR league? And, they already have 7 of those (including the clear top 3) -- they need only 5 more to reach that goal.

I mean, you do realize that if they add 5 out of the following 16 remaining potential targets, then there is no disputing their BOR status, right? So, yeah, with the PAC's momentum and massive war chest, what are the chances they DON'T add at least 5 of the following in the next 6 months: Uconn, USF, AFA, James Madison, UNLV, Army, Navy, Memphis, East Carolina, UMass, Old Dominion, Hawaii, Cal, Stanford, Tulane or SMU. To put it bluntly, my guess is Gonzaga, UNLV, Hawaii, AFA, and UConn are "close". Which means, if that is the case, they really only have to get one of the remaining 19 to bite. And, given the prisoner's dilemma here, chances are someone is going to bite. And, boom, the PAC-12 is reborn with 12 football teams and a non-football member that would easily place the league in the top 5 in BB and top 6 in football.

My bet? Gonzaga and UNLV join by the end of the week. AFA might take another few weeks, but will likely follow suit. And, by the end of 2024, the PAC has at least 12 full members and 1 non-football member -- all taken somewhere from this list. 

In which case, they would be the clear BOR league. 

 

 

If if if if if if if if if if if if

 

maybe maybe maybe 

 

is all I read. Good job wasting your time writing nothing.