Conference Realignment thread

[thespywhozaggedme]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:54 PM, UofMTigers said:

yep, Troy and FSU have gone from 26-3 last season to starting 0-6 this season (I haven't kept track of the FCS team) that said, I don't mind seeing Memphis take FSU's 1.3 million and hand em an L at home.

No doubt, love the win for you guys, no matter how bad FSU is

[roughrider]

The PAC have been clear as far as I can tell that they are going to 9 and full stop.  No non football adds like Gonzaga either.

UNLV/Memphis/Tulane  are the apparent targets.  

[thedude15]

On 9/17/2024 at 7:22 AM, roughrider said:

The PAC have been clear as far as I can tell that they are going to 9 and full stop.  No non football adds like Gonzaga either.

UNLV/Memphis/Tulane  are the apparent targets.  

I would be happy with that. Then the dream (from the Pac-12 conference side) is hoping ACC falls apart, the Pac-12 doesn't lose anybody to the Big-12, and Cal/Stanford come crawling back. I doubt that happens as Cal/Stanford want ZERO to do with Fresno (they were barely gonna tolerate SDSU). But if it does then I would say add 1 Texas school to get to 12 and call it a day. Not an amazing conference but not horrible either. 

edit- I don't really think Gonzaga would even want to come at this point. The Pac-12 is going to be pretty unstable until the ACC issue is resolved. I could see Gonzaga having interest if it become clear the Pac-12 will be stable/not lose any members long term. But at this time I don't really think it is worth the risk. Cause if they go and the Pac-12 loses a few members then all the sudden they might be trying to crawl back the WCC. Which I am sure the WCC will take them but they might not give them all the favorable deals that Gonzaga is currently getting. 

[roughrider]

On 9/17/2024 at 9:01 AM, thedude15 said:

I would be happy with that. Then the dream (from the Pac-12 conference side) is hoping ACC falls apart, the Pac-12 doesn't lose anybody to the Big-12, and Cal/Stanford come crawling back. I doubt that happens as Cal/Stanford want ZERO to do with Fresno (they were barely gonna tolerate SDSU). But if it does then I would say add 1 Texas school to get to 12 and call it a day. Not an amazing conference but not horrible either. 

edit- I don't really think Gonzaga would even want to come at this point. The Pac-12 is going to be pretty unstable until the ACC issue is resolved. I could see Gonzaga having interest if it become clear the Pac-12 will be stable/not lose any members long term. But at this time I don't really think it is worth the risk. Cause if they go and the Pac-12 loses a few members then all the sudden they might be trying to crawl back the WCC. Which I am sure the WCC will take them but they might not give them all the favorable deals that Gonzaga is currently getting. 

The only original PAC members to be in the long(er) term version of it are there now.  No one's coming back.

The future beyond what the PAC is working on is anyone's guess.  Is a big implosion coming sooner than TV deals expiring because of the courts?   Or are we going to keep seeing team A and B leaving a conference to move 'up' over a period of several years?   The PAC at least gives the illusion of survival and a step forward if it's built up correctly.  

Agree on Gonzaga.  No real reason to leave the situation they're in other than a stronger conference schedule which they would probably like but don't need given the strength of their OOC schedule every year.

[spc_ops]

On 9/17/2024 at 8:18 AM, roughrider said:

The only original PAC members to be in the long(er) term version of it are there now.  No one's coming back. No one is coming back anytime soon.

The future beyond what the PAC is working on is anyone's guess.  Is a big implosion coming sooner than TV deals expiring because of the courts?   Or are we going to keep seeing team A and B leaving a conference to move 'up' over a period of several years?   The PAC at least gives the illusion of survival and a step forward if it's built up correctly.  

Agree on Gonzaga.  No real reason to leave the situation they're in other than a stronger conference schedule which they would probably like but don't need given the strength of their OOC schedule every year.

do we still do FIFY?

[Aggie84025]

On 9/16/2024 at 4:04 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Haven't seen the score, how did you guys do against Utah and its backup QB? 

Not as good as I would have liked.  Utah is a very good team.  Was pleased with the effort and the ability to hang in there into the 4th quarter.  Obviously there are no moral victories.

[thespywhozaggedme]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:22 AM, roughrider said:

The PAC have been clear as far as I can tell that they are going to 9 and full stop.  No non football adds like Gonzaga either.

UNLV/Memphis/Tulane  are the apparent targets.  

Without the Zags, that’s a pretty crap basketball conference, though. Major step down from the MWC as far as hoops goes.

[BoiseStateOfMind]

On 9/17/2024 at 12:43 PM, thespywhozaggedme said:

Without the Zags, that’s a pretty crap basketball conference, though. Major step down from the MWC as far as hoops goes.

Meh. The MWC was good at gaming the schedule to get lots of bids and then getting wiped out in the first weekend against legit competition. It was not actually a good basketball conference after BYU and Utah left. It hurts to admit, but the results are what they are.

Even Oregon State has accomplished more in March recently than 90% of the MWC and they've sucked for over 30 years now.

[roughrider]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:43 AM, thespywhozaggedme said:

Without the Zags, that’s a pretty crap basketball conference, though. Major step down from the MWC as far as hoops goes.

I'm not sure about that.  Memphis is better than UNM/UNLV combined for national attention IMO.  

And hearing that Gonzaga may still be a possibility.  OSU's AD made a comment saying it was schools with football only.   Others have said that is true for the next 3 schools added but not an absolute.

[thedude15]

On 9/17/2024 at 1:02 PM, roughrider said:

I'm not sure about that.  Memphis is better than UNM/UNLV combined for national attention IMO.  

And hearing that Gonzaga may still be a possibility.  OSU's AD made a comment saying it was schools with football only.   Others have said that is true for the next 3 schools added but not an absolute.

Memphis and SDSU is a good top. BSU and CSU have been pretty good lately. Fresno has been horrid for most of the past 20 years but they really don't have any excuse not to be decent and at the very least be a tourney team every 4 years. The basketball side of the conference will be fine. 

[MissionTrails]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:30 AM, BoiseStateOfMind said:

Meh. The MWC was good at gaming the schedule to get lots of bids and then getting wiped out in the first weekend against legit competition. It was not actually a good basketball conference after BYU and Utah left. It hurts to admit, but the results are what they are.

Even Oregon State has accomplished more in March recently than 90% of the MWC and they've sucked for over 30 years now.

Utah actually wasn't a good basketball program it's last few years in the MWC, nor was TCU. BYU was the only semi-big loss basketball-wise. Football was a different story, of course.

[SanDiegoPoke]

I finally found the source of SDSU's hatred of Wyoming! We pull a bigger TV audience:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/whats-next-for-pac-12-more-expansion-options-tv-deal-on-check-list-for-re-imagined-conference/

[Chalsean]

On 9/17/2024 at 4:43 PM, thespywhozaggedme said:

Without the Zags, that’s a pretty crap basketball conference, though. Major step down from the MWC as far as hoops goes.

Disagree..  BSU, UNLV, SDSU, CSU, Memphis is good core basketball.  We wouldn't have UNM, USU, UNR but Memphis would be a great bball get.  UNM is the one I'd miss

[Castle Ram]

If Memphis/Tulane say no do you come back to UNM, WYO after UNLV is added?  

[Brew_Poke]

On 9/17/2024 at 4:24 PM, SanDiegoPoke said:

I finally found the source of SDSU's hatred of Wyoming! We pull a bigger TV audience:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/whats-next-for-pac-12-more-expansion-options-tv-deal-on-check-list-for-re-imagined-conference/

It's because in our stadium, the cameras point to the stands, and in theirs, they point to the empty seats, or something.

[UofMTigers]

On 9/17/2024 at 6:43 PM, Castle Ram said:

If Memphis/Tulane say no do you come back to UNM, WYO after UNLV is added?  

we won't...if invited we will accept.

[Castle Ram]

On 9/17/2024 at 6:00 PM, UofMTigers said:

we won't...if invited we will accept.

Interesting, I would have guessed lots of concern over TV monies and travel expenses.

[spc_ops]

On 9/17/2024 at 5:56 PM, Castle Ram said:

Interesting, I would have guessed lots of concern over TV monies and travel expenses.

every number I've seen is a pay raise with some significant. I'm sure the truth is somewhere in the middle.

[HawaiiMongoose]

Here's the latest from Chris Vannini at The Athletic, who's got more and better conference realignment contacts than probably anyone else in the media:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5776229/2024/09/18/pac-12-aac-mountain-west-realignment/

The article is behind a paywall but here are some highlights:

Having created some momentum, the Pac-12 is on to Step 2 in its effort to create a Best of the Rest conference. Having grabbed the top of the Mountain West, it wants the top of the American Athletic Conference, and it wants to do it as soon as possible in order to begin real conversations with prospective TV partners. (The league needs at least eight members by July 1, 2026.)

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Multiple sources briefed on the league’s thinking tell The Athletic that Memphis and Tulane are the Pac-12’s top targets. While conversations are being had, it’s not clear the two are sold yet on the league’s speculative plan. ... UTSA, North Texas, South Florida and Texas State are among the other central/eastern options the Pac-12 is looking into, with UTSA considered the favorite among the group. Getting into Texas is especially important for certain Pac-12 schools, and each prospective member has its own selling point.

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Back west, UNLV was left out of the initial Mountain West move. Rebels football is having its most (and only) success in decades, now ranked in a major poll for the first time, but the question is whether the school has enough support and investment that will continue past this moment in time. The belief is that UNLV can ultimately split from fellow university system member Nevada for a conference move if needed. ... The Pac-12’s availability as an option for UNLV and Air Force is more likely if the conference strikes out on its eastern swing attempts. 

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What the Pac-12 is selling these schools is still an unknown commodity. While popular college sports valuation consultant Navigate can project numbers, the conference is not working off a normal media rights deal. The league will have to go to market to figure out exactly what it is worth.  Some sources familiar with the league’s thinking hope to land somewhere between $10 to $15 million per school per year, while other sources call that number premature and say it depends on who else joins.

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The estimated $111 million the Pac-12 stands to owe the Mountain West ($17 million in exit fees for each school, plus $43 million in poaching fees from the Pac-12/MW scheduling agreement) could become a point of contention. Some sources around the situation believe the Pac-12 will try to negotiate that number down in some way, while others are dubious it can be done. AAC defections would also owe exit fees likely in the tens of millions of dollars. While the Pac-12 can use its estimated $250 million war chest to fill in gaps, that money won’t last forever. Around $65 million was initially earmarked for rebuilding, with the rest going to operations.

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Barnes said Saturday that the six Pac-12 schools have signed a “long-term” grant of rights to lock themselves together. What they’re locked into remains to be seen. That unknown is what has AAC schools cautious about making a jump. But if one or two does, that would increase pressure on another to not be left behind.  “People are being very calculated and want more information,” one AAC administrator said.

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Down to eight football-playing members, the Mountain West is still assessing its next steps — most notably, how much money it can expect to receive from the Pac-12. But with schools like UNLV and Air Force still eyeing moves, it’s a precarious situation.

Sources familiar with discussions believe UTEP and Texas State are potential targets, as FBS members who wouldn’t have to make a transition. Sam Houston might be an option, too. New Mexico State is in the region, but the school is going through a presidential search, and New Mexico may not favor adding the Aggies. FCS Tarleton, located in Stephenville, is another potential Texas option. The school just recently completed its transition from Division II but is growing rapidly and has a lot of money at its disposal.

The question is what kind of Mountain West these potential additional schools would be walking into. Texas State likely prefers the Sun Belt where it sits (or a possible future AAC invite), while Conference USA has a grant of rights that makes an exit fee larger, the only G5 league with such an agreement.

“If (these) eight can stay together and we can add some teams, we can really be a good league,” Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman told in-house media last Friday. “If (the Pac-12 can’t add AAC schools), it’s likely they’re going to circle back to the Mountain West, and we could lose an additional member or two members. So that’s why expansion is very, very important.”

[CowboyFriar]

On 9/18/2024 at 12:51 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

“If (these) eight can stay together and we can add some teams, we can really be a good league,” Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman told in-house media last Friday. “If (the Pac-12 can’t add AAC schools), it’s likely they’re going to circle back to the Mountain West, and we could lose an additional member or two members. So that’s why expansion is very, very important.”

This is the problem for Wyoming....   Burman is out there trying to be the face of the MWC.  He should not be out in public but instead should be lighting up the phones to try and secure Wyoming's future.  Don't let them undervalue and downplay Wyoming's brand.  It does have a national championship in basketball under it's belt as well as drawing better television ratings than SDSU.  He should be selling that shit instead of talking publicly and sounding like a beaten down little bitch!