Conference Realignment thread

[SanDiegoPoke]

On 9/13/2024 at 3:11 PM, bleachedwheat said:

Right, might as well add football to that.

Big West dropped football 20 years ago.

[bleachedwheat]

Your right, I guess they would have to stay in the MW, I just don't know how the travel cost would play into that.  Revenue will drop quite a bit with the new TV deal.   They could join the Big Sky in Football.  Don't know though.  All this realignment is tough financially for a lot of these schools.

[TheBigAwesome]

It appears that getting to eight is the target in order to meet the 8-team requirement; however, Oregon A.D. Scott Barnes was quoted on Thursday (9/12/24) that nine is optimal for football.

Also being reported, is that the PAC is looking East to expand its footprint, specifically looking at the Central Time Zone. A main driver that has been identified is to try to achieve a “Best of the Rest” status in an attempt to stranglehold one of the Playoff spots set aside for Conference Champions.

As mentioned earlier, NIU is the top candidate available that meets that criteria. Memphis is probably second and Tulane probably the third. 

The 2PAC would have added the following TV markets if it adds these 3 to the 4 already added from the MW:

• NIU - #3 
• Colorado St.  - #17 
• SDSU - #30 
• Memphis - #50
• Tulane - #51
• Fresno St. - 52
• Boise St. - 97

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 9/13/2024 at 12:25 PM, bleachedwheat said:

Your right, I guess they would have to stay in the MW, I just don't know how the travel cost would play into that.  Revenue will drop quite a bit with the new TV deal.   They could join the Big Sky in Football.  Don't know though.  All this realignment is tough financially for a lot of these schools.

Hawaii gets three-quarters of its TV money from a special standalone pay-per-view deal with Spectrum Charter Communications (a national cable TV network), rather than from MWC TV revenue distributions.  Moreover the loss of the MWC's four top teams should have a minimal affect on the willingness of Hawaii fans to sign up for pay-per-view, which means the deal with Spectrum will probably continue at its current level.  So while the MWC TV deal will certainly be a lot less in the future, Hawaii of all of the remaining MWC schools will probably will be the least affected financially.

Moreover in addition to paying its own way to play road games in the MWC, Hawaii currently pays travel subsidies to visiting MWC schools.  I don't see that ending, so the presence of Hawaii in the MWC shouldn't be an impediment to new members joining the conference, and Hawaii should be able to continue to afford travel to road games in the MWC.

In short, this realignment doesn't really give Hawaii any cause to change its current football affiliation.

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 9/13/2024 at 2:19 PM, TheBigAwesome said:

It appears that getting to eight is the target in order to meet the 8-team requirement; however, Oregon A.D. Scott Barnes was quoted on Thursday (9/12/24) that nine is optimal for football.

Also being reported, is that the PAC is looking East to expand its footprint, specifically looking at the Central Time Zone. A main driver that has been identified is to try to achieve a “Best of the Rest” status in an attempt to stranglehold one of the Playoff spots set aside for Conference Champions.

As mentioned earlier, NIU is the top candidate available that meets that criteria. Memphis is probably second and Tulane probably the third. 

The 2PAC would have added the following TV markets if it adds these 3 to the 4 already added from the MW:

• NIU - #3 
• Colorado St.  - #17 
• SDSU - #30 
• Memphis - #50
• Tulane - #51
• Fresno St. - 52
• Boise St. - 97

NIU is pretty far outside Chicago and doesn't do much to deliver that market.  I think the real prizes for the Pac are Memphis and Tulane.

The logical ninth member would be UTSA, which would help build a geographic bridge to those two, is on the rise in football, and would deliver San Antonio which is ranked as the nation's 24th largest metro area and 37th largest TV market (not sure why there's a difference but links to the lists are below).

https://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

[UofMTigers]

On 9/13/2024 at 9:36 AM, Zoomie said:

So let me get this straight, the Pac 2 is spending their war chest to help the departing 4 spend a bunch of money to go to a conference whose goal now is to attract the likes of UTSA and UNT??  As someone who was raised in Texas, this makes me laugh...

I'd take UNT over UTSA for several reasons. 1) Dallas market 2) they have their own football stadium that was recently built 3) their basketball team actually has a pulse and doesn't play in a HS gym.

[jdgaucho]

On 9/13/2024 at 3:17 PM, SanDiegoPoke said:

Big West dropped football 20 years ago.

 

More like forced to, by the MWAC.

[TheBigAwesome]

On 9/13/2024 at 8:02 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

NIU is pretty far outside Chicago and doesn't do much to deliver that market. 

NIU is literally in the Chicago Media Market and delivers its market, as much or more, than any University being mentioned. 

No other school being mentioned can even compare when it comes to a Media Market and football success combo, where NIU is tops in both categories.

The logical seventh member is NIU.

https://www.mediamarketmap.com/chicago-designated-market-media-map/

Quote

COUNTIES IN THE CHICAGO MEDIA MARKET AREA

• Cook, IL
• DeKalb, IL
• DuPage, IL
• Grundy, IL
• Jasper, IN
• Kane, IL
• Kankakee, IL
• Kendall, IL
• LaPorte, IN
• LaSalle, IL
• Lake, IL
• Lake, IN
• McHenry, IL
• Newton, IN
• Porter, IN
• Will, IL

 

[TheBigAwesome]

The only way any of this makes sense, is if it makes $$$, and that’s going to come by way of a TV deal.

If part of the the strategy is to keep membership to a minimum in order to cut up the pie into less pieces (thus a larger cut for each member), then the PAC is going to need schools in large Media Markets. 

If another part of the strategy is to establish itself as the “Best of the Rest “ conference, the PAC is going to need to pick up strong football schools with a proven track record of success.

There really is just one obvious available option that meets both of that criteria. 

[UofMTigers]

On 9/13/2024 at 7:19 PM, TheBigAwesome said:

It appears that getting to eight is the target in order to meet the 8-team requirement; however, Oregon A.D. Scott Barnes was quoted on Thursday (9/12/24) that nine is optimal for football.

Also being reported, is that the PAC is looking East to expand its footprint, specifically looking at the Central Time Zone. A main driver that has been identified is to try to achieve a “Best of the Rest” status in an attempt to stranglehold one of the Playoff spots set aside for Conference Champions.

As mentioned earlier, NIU is the top candidate available that meets that criteria. Memphis is probably second and Tulane probably the third. 

The 2PAC would have added the following TV markets if it adds these 3 to the 4 already added from the MW:

• NIU - #3 
• Colorado St.  - #17 
• SDSU - #30 
• Memphis - #50
• Tulane - #51
• Fresno St. - 52
• Boise St. - 97

Memphis has better facilities, better football/basketball programs, much better athletics budget, better corporate support, the list goes on...

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 9/13/2024 at 9:42 PM, TheBigAwesome said:

NIU is literally in the Chicago Media Market and delivers its market, as much or more, than any University being mentioned. 

No other school being mentioned can even compare when it comes to a Media Market and football success combo, where NIU is tops in both categories.

The logical seventh member is NIU.

https://www.mediamarketmap.com/chicago-designated-market-media-map/

 

I’ve been clamoring for NIU in the MW for years and people still don’t get it.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:58 PM, UofMTigers said:

 

Memphis has better facilities, better football/basketball programs, much better athletics budget, better corporate support, the list goes on...

What are your thoughts on going to the new PAC? Are you into it?

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 9/13/2024 at 5:04 PM, roughrider said:

Brett McMurphy who lives in Tampa said there's no way USF would be interested in the PAC, let alone MWC.     Can't see USF in any future plans out west.

It’s not just south Florida that isn’t interested either out of the aac.

[UofMTigers]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:28 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

What are your thoughts on going to the new PAC? Are you into it?

assuming they keep the auto-bid after 2026 and can at least double out current TV money (6.9 x2= 13.8m) then yeah take the offer but we want Tulane to come along too.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 9/13/2024 at 11:37 PM, UofMTigers said:

assuming they keep the auto-bid after 2026 and can at least double out current TV money (6.9 x2= 13.8m) then yeah take the offer but we want Tulane to come along too.

PAC has no autobid, just the same playoff spot you’d be fighting for in the aac.  Do you think the MWC plus Oregon state and Washington state is worth nearly quadrupling the current MWC deal?

[UofMTigers]

On 9/13/2024 at 11:21 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

PAC has no autobid, just the same playoff spot you’d be fighting for in the aac.  Do you think the MWC plus Oregon state and Washington state is worth nearly quadrupling the current MWC deal?

I would still learn towards the PAC as Oregon State, Washington State, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, CSU, Memphis, and Tulane make a damn good starting off group for a new conf IMHO.

[Aztec1984]

On 9/13/2024 at 7:58 PM, UofMTigers said:

Memphis has better facilities, better football/basketball programs, much better athletics budget, better corporate support, the list goes on...

Memphis is most definitely the top target of the PAC right now. I think the PAC needs 2 other AAC schools to mitigate some of their travel: Tulane, UTSA and UNT would be the top choices.

Just two of those would allow the PAC to wait and add UNLV in 2027 which would reduce costs. I expect Gonzaga will be announced soon.

[clydebeav]

On 9/13/2024 at 9:30 PM, UofMTigers said:

I would still learn towards the PAC as Oregon State, Washington State, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, CSU, Memphis, and Tulane make a damn good starting off group for a new conf IMHO.

I would love to have Memphis and Tulane. 

[Brew_Poke]

On 9/13/2024 at 3:27 PM, Lobo Hobo said:

I can see UNLV going to Pac, but you are high if you think the worst team in football (UNM) for years now, would even be on their radar. It is all about football. The Lobos will end up in Siberia if the MWC dissolves. 

It's not all about football. They invited CSU.

[lobo-tomy]

On 9/13/2024 at 11:18 PM, Brew_Poke said:

It's not all about football. They invited CSU.

It's the "Superior Lifestyle."