Conference Realignment thread

[jdgaucho]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:12 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

@jdgaucho , I think it's possible if the following plays out:

- The Pac grabs UTSA, UNT, Memphis and Tulane from the AAC

- The AAC backfills with Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Texas State

- After it becomes clear that Stanford and Cal aren't candidates to return, the Pac brings in UNLV and USF

That would leave the MWC with just Hawaii, Nevada, USU and SJSU.  In that situation it's likely UTEP and NMSU would chose to stick with CUSA and the Big Sky and Dakota schools would lose interest in moving up, pretty much ending the ability of the MWC to rebuild.  The only realistic option remaining for Nevada, USU and SJSU would be to join the Big West and (along with Hawaii) go independent in football with a mutual scheduling agreement.

 

A lot of moving parts, but it's at least within the realm of possibility. And your travel expenses will go down. If the MWC doesn't hold on this is the scenario I want.

Ironically, in that situation you'd also only be two members away from a new FBS league.

[alum93]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:13 AM, SteedLaw said:

My take is this whole thing is just a ploy to get to at least 9 teams from the MWC to join so there are not exit fees to pay. 
 

So, yeah, I think it is likely 5 more teams from the MWC will bail to the new PAC, this no exit fees and dissolution of the MWC. 

Or the smallest market teams from the MWC are left behind.  I think that is the more logical play.  

[SteedLaw]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:14 AM, spc_ops said:

perhaps, but doesn't that bring lawsuits into play?

I think they might already be in play… Kinda too late for that.

[alum93]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:15 AM, jdgaucho said:

 

Ironically, in that situation you'd only be two members away from a new FBS league.

Here's another option.  If the MWC is truly gutted and only 3 or 4 teams are left at the end of the day, they could join a western division of CUSA along with NMSU and UTEP.  That would give you 6 western based teams in the league.  

[SteedLaw]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:16 AM, alum93 said:

Or the smallest market teams from the MWC are left behind.  I think that is the more logical play.  

The PAC needs more teams for scheduling and stability against future poaching. Eight teams in 2026 is a paper conference only. 

[alum93]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:18 AM, SteedLaw said:

The PAC needs more teams for scheduling and stability against future poaching. Eight teams in 2026 is a paper conference only. 

But they don't necessarily need small market teams from the MWC.  Let's see if the AAC is poached next.  

[SteedLaw]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:17 AM, alum93 said:

Here's another option.  If the MWC is truly gutted and only 3 or 4 teams are left at the end of the day, they could join a western division of CUSA along with NMSU and UTEP.  That would give you 6 western based teams in the league.  

That is exactly what I think is happening, but it will be 2-3 teams left behind so they can get the 9 from the MWC they need. 

[CKS007]

New PAC

Boise St
Colorado St
Fresno St
Memphis
North Texas (or USF)
Oregon St
San Diego St
Texas-San Antonio
Tulsa
Washington St

New MWC

Air Force
Hawaii/???
Nevada
Nevada-Las Vegas
New Mexico
New Mexico St
Rice (or Tulsa)
San Jose St
Utah St
Texas-El Paso
Texas St (or Tulsa or SHSU)
Wyoming

[lakesbison]

NDSU is your #1 PRIORITY if you want a shot at the CFP bid

[CKS007]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:47 AM, lakesbison said:

NDSU is your #1 PRIORITY if you want a shot at the CFP bid

 

[lakesbison]

Why because you don’t want NDSU to be #1 on Day 1 ?    That’s the only reason 

[TheBigAwesome]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:28 AM, TheBigAwesome said:

NIU should be the top candidate. The Big Ten started this, the PAC-?? should take the best available team as a middle finger to the Big Ten it just happens that the team is in their backyard. 

On 9/12/2024 at 9:53 AM, TheBigAwesome said:

It’s not necessarily over for UNLV. 

If the PAC goes to 12, they have their West Division. With their East Division comprised of NIU, Memphis, Tulane, and 3 Texas schools (UTSA, Rice, North Texas).

The PAC can always expand to 14, adding UNLV to the West Division and an additional school to the East Division.

To add to this, the TV markets of the four newly added schools are:

• Colorado St.  - #17
• SDSU - #30
• Fresno St. - 52
• Boise St. - 97

The TV markets for the above proposed East Division are:

• NIU - #3
• North Texas - #5
• Rice - #7
• UTSA - #31
• Memphis - #50
• Tulane - #51

[415hawaiiboy]

The CW deal was an outside the box move.  From CW’s perspective, they gain value on the cheap (think Blair Witch Project profitability).  Eyeballs moving from Big CBS to Fox to ABC to NBC.  CW if there’s a competitive game, should get eyeballs.

I love that distribution move.  Long term it should work out.  The PAC 12 (the 10 teams) could have made that work well but the alternatives were low risk and more money now (Big12 invite for example).

 

TNT, CBS Sports, FS1 for the MW perhaps.  Amazon Prime paywall for the non nationally televised games.  The saving grace for the MW will be similar: more channels hoping to show live football. 
 

Also the split is basically a cleaner non-parity delineage.  The world is moving towards uneven revenue splits, except for the very top to the sport where there is so much money (NFL, Big 10, SEC).  The NFL cared about revenue parity (and thus also salary cap) so there are competitive games.  
 

It very hard to calculate non-parity within the same league / partnership.  Big market teams vs small market.  
 

TNT seems like an opportunity.

[SanDiegoPoke]

On 9/11/2024 at 10:52 PM, southfresno said:

Do not just reflexively add NMSU and UTEP. The Mountain West needs to really think about their strategy. It could mean Montanas or Dakotas, or California schools or yes, NMSU and UTEP. 

I disagree - stay regional.

[SanDiegoPoke]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:20 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Gotta stay current.

Unless those Freedom Caucus idiots in the legislature succeed in destroying the university, I could see the Pokes ponying up the buyout money themselves and petitioning the Pac-2 to join. No point in renovating the WAR to play in a lesser league than we're already in. 

I'm actually very worried about the carpet baggers in the Wyoming Legislature destroying the University.

[SanDiegoPoke]

On 9/12/2024 at 1:11 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

 It’s been repeatedly spoken about but without much in the way of logic to have it be a credible discussion.

Wyo won’t pay to join if the others don’t have to, but that’s irrelevant to my question.  The PAC is going to spend $115m just to buyout four schools, money they don’t really have because it’s all buyout money, mostly earmarked for things like operations, marketing, production, etc… the question is how do they pay their schools starting in ‘26? Beyond the buyout…

4 schools isn’t enough to even qualify as a conference, much less secure a media deal as a conference.  What are they going to do-add two independent football schools so they don’t have to spend any more on buyouts? No school from the AAC is going to pay money to join a new PAC, even if they had the prospect of a deal in the works, particularly  if Boise/fresno/etc don’t have to.  They’ll just stay where they’re at and say good luck adding independents or CUSA schools to the PAC.  
 

What this actually tells me is the opposite of what you’re saying: that the PAC was unable to secure a media deal and that in order to get one they’ll have to undercut the MWC essentially for their next one.  That’s the only reason why they’d spend the last of their dollars just to buy out schools: to hastily hope that they can take the money that was going to the MWC by going to market with their product first.  They are trying to Brett Yormark the MWC but all the MWC has to do is open up their media negotiations early and lock down their contingency.  This actually seems more likely given the timing following the MWC announcement last week that they wouldn’t be renewing the scheduling agreement next season.  This feels like hasty butthurtednness by the PAC right now.

 

Wyoming has the largest foundation of all MWC schools. They just have to choose to do it.

[MissionTrails]

On 9/11/2024 at 10:17 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Apparently not. 

Per usual, my timing is (not) impeccable. Should have seen it coming, I suppose. Was actually hoping for a full merge, partially to avoid paying the toll. Steed may be on to something with his conference dissolution theory. Everything sucks though, for everybody. Thanks for nothing USC/UCLA/Okla/Texas/Network execs, for starting all this.

[SpartanGrad]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:13 AM, SteedLaw said:

My take is this whole thing is just a ploy to get to at least 9 teams from the MWC to join so there are not exit fees to pay. 
 

So, yeah, I think it is likely 5 more teams from the MWC will bail to the new PAC, this no exit fees and dissolution of the MWC. 

You’ve been wrong about nearly everything on this thread 

[415hawaiiboy]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:12 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

@jdgaucho , I think it's possible if the following plays out:

- The Pac grabs UTSA, UNT, Memphis and Tulane from the AAC

- The AAC backfills with Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Texas State

- After it becomes clear that Stanford and Cal aren't candidates to return, the Pac brings in UNLV and USF

That would leave the MWC with just Hawaii, Nevada, USU and SJSU.  In that situation it's likely UTEP and NMSU would chose to stick with CUSA and the Big Sky and Dakota schools would lose interest in moving up, pretty much ending the ability of the MWC to rebuild.  The only realistic option remaining for Nevada, USU and SJSU would be to join the Big West and (along with Hawaii) go independent in football with a mutual scheduling agreement.

I could see that, but could also see Hawaii, SJSU, Nevada, and USU (the MW) find four more schools and make a conference out of that.  Get some CFP money (by having a pulse) while at it and a championship game. 
 

Schools such as Sac State, UC Davis, Portland St, and Cal Poly. 

There is value in having a conference even if it is a scheduling alliance mostly.

 

 

[robe]

When is the Boise press conference and does anyone have a link