Conference Realignment thread

[Rambouche]

On 9/4/2024 at 5:49 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Wyoming is probably the only MWC team that has complete dominance in its home market, the entire state of Wyoming. But its home market is so small, it doesn't help. 

SJSU is even lower on the Bay Area pecking order than CSU is in the Denver pecking order.

Just my anecdotal observation- but I don’t think CSU does too bad in the sports media pecking order in the Denver market…it’s the kind of place where the Broncos third string QB matters more (and gets more coverage) than anything else happening in sports as a whole by a wide margin, but CSU gets covered by Denver media well enough…football games will always get coverage on the local news, major daily has an assigned beat writer…WYO and AFA football pop up as well..I don’t think any of them are afterthoughts for Denver sports media world…if csu had managed to be good any time over the last decade, they would have been the lead story like all of the other teams in the region vying for attention after the Broncos…based solely on the sad pictures I see of SJSU home games- it looks like they are closer in local interest to the University of Northern Colorado than the front range MWC trio….

[Wyobraska]

On 9/5/2024 at 6:35 PM, Rambouche said:

Just my anecdotal observation- but I don’t think CSU does too bad in the sports media pecking order in the Denver market…it’s the kind of place where the Broncos third string QB matters more (and gets more coverage) than anything else happening in sports as a whole by a wide margin, but CSU gets covered by Denver media well enough…football games will always get coverage on the local news, major daily has an assigned beat writer…WYO and AFA football pop up as well..I don’t think any of them are afterthoughts for Denver sports media world…if csu had managed to be good any time over the last decade, they would have been the lead story like all of the other teams in the region vying for attention after the Broncos…based solely on the sad pictures I see of SJSU home games- it looks like they are closer in local interest to the University of Northern Colorado than the front range MWC trio….

When Sonny was doing his thing back in the day CSU got a lot more coverage locally I feel like.

[UofMTigers]

On 9/5/2024 at 9:02 AM, Wyobraska said:

Is the heat going to come down hard on Penny?

depends...we need more facts.

As of now aIl I know is Memphis got an anonymous letter which was/is difficult to corroborate. The next day Memphis suspended Sr. Malcolm Dandridge and fired an academic advisor named Leslie Brooks. 'Academic misconduct' was quietly alleged but nothing was officially said. Supposedly in that same letter were some recruiting accusation made against penny and his asst coaches. Coincidentally Penny just fired like 75% of his coaching staff a few days ago. Memphis confirms they self reported the anonymous letter and has turned all investigating over to the NCAA.

https://wreg.com/news/hardaway-parts-ways-with-three-members-of-his-coaching-staff/

[Brew_Poke]

On 9/5/2024 at 4:22 PM, Someone Else said:

And the SEC/B1G get over 100 million per year.  

My opinion is 6 mil is not a lot of money for what they (the schools) sign on for. 

You can think differently. 

It's not six million, it's 42 million over the life of the contract, which costs 17 million to break w/ one year notice, and 34 million to break with less than a year. Seems fair.

[Someone Else]

45 minutes ago, Brew_Poke said:

It's not six million, it's 42 million over the life of the contract, which costs 17 million to break w/ one year notice, and 34 million to break with less than a year. Seems fair.

Yes.  I am decent at math so I can multiply.

It's okay for us to disagree.  It's just an opinion.

For what they get I don't think it's fair or worth it

[EvilPoke]

On 9/4/2024 at 7:47 PM, Wyobraska said:

They would need their new conference by 2026.  So if they gave notice before June 2025 then they would only pay $17 million though right?

Yes. But they seem to be focused on other things right now than trying to get 6 schools to come aboard - and this is not TCU or Utah leaving for Power 5 conferences where leaving is a no-brainer.

 

[SteedLaw]

On 9/4/2024 at 4:47 PM, agswin said:

Honestly, all things being what they are, I am a bit surprised by the indignation of the Pac2 against the MWC.

At first, it seemed like most MWC fans were excited about the prospects of WSU/OSU joining/partnering with the MWC.

With some time and more displeasure communicated by the former PAC members, the feeling evolved to ambivalence.

And, today,  I would say that most MWC fans are rather opposed to the PAC2 and really don't want anything to do with them at all.

So I guess the PAC2 got exactly what they wanted...  They are isolated on an island.  Not really P4, Not really G5.

Are they happy about it?

 

^^^This.

As time goes on, the PAC-2 find themselves increasingly isolated and with decreasing leverage to change their situation.

It was a stupid move to wait as long as they did to make a decision. My gut tells me there is still a chance the merger happens, but they have weeks (not months) to get that done...certainly not years like some are saying.

And...LMAO at all the comments suggesting that "poaching" still is, let alone ever has, been an option for the PAC-2.

[Chalsean]

On 9/6/2024 at 8:55 AM, SteedLaw said:

^^^This.

As time goes on, the PAC-2 find themselves increasingly isolated and with decreasing leverage to change their situation.

It was a stupid move to wait as long as they did to make a decision. My gut tells me there is still a chance the merger happens, but they have weeks (not months) to get that done...certainly not years like some are saying.

And...LMAO at all the comments suggesting that "poaching" still is, let alone ever has, been an option for the PAC-2.

I believe they are going independent and continue to wait for ACC movement.  Nobody is moving out of MWC to join them because it financially makes no sense.  Now if Calford comes into play that would change the equation.

[Wyobraska]

On 9/6/2024 at 9:03 AM, Chalsean said:

I believe they are going independent and continue to wait for ACC movement.  Nobody is moving out of MWC to join them because it financially makes no sense.  Now if Calford comes into play that would change the equation.

They'll lose all of those basketball credits and a substantial amount of money that they would have earned as the PAC 12 though if they go independent right?

[Chalsean]

On 9/6/2024 at 9:34 AM, Wyobraska said:

They'll lose all of those basketball credits and a substantial amount of money that they would have earned as the PAC 12 though if they go independent right?

True..  thats a good point.  I dont know man, I simply cannot see 6 MWC teams joining them just so they (OSU/WSU) can retain money. It would be horribly expensive for questionable gain.  The only path would be 9 MWC teams at a minimum but I just dont see getting 9 university presidents to agree to bone the other 3 and OSU/WSU seem to have zero appetite for going beyond 6.  I just dont see what OSU/WSU strategy is here.

There was an interview with the OSU AD recently where he mentioned there will be more P4 teams on the 2025 schedule than 2024.  ACC kept coming up as far as the CW rights and exposure.

[Wyobraska]

On 9/6/2024 at 9:46 AM, Chalsean said:

True..  thats a good point.  I dont know man, I simply cannot see 6 MWC teams joining them just so they (OSU/WSU) can retain money. It would be horribly expensive for questionable gain.  The only path would be 9 MWC teams at a minimum but I just dont see getting 9 university presidents to agree to bone the other 3 and OSU/WSU seem to have zero appetite for going beyond 6.  I just dont see what OSU/WSU strategy is here.

There was an interview with the OSU AD recently where he mentioned there will be more P4 teams on the 2025 schedule than 2024.  ACC kept coming up as far as the CW rights and exposure.

It's tough.  It seems like they have very limited options to me but I can see why they are drawing this out to maximize their chances.  

For 2025 I think they are building out their own schedules and trying to get more P4 games

For 2026, their options seem slim. 

1.  Rebuild PAC 12.  Seems like a lot of money to spend and I'm not sure how much that helps them in the end.  $30 million per school is a lot of money when their budgets are getting slashed.  I don't know if the ACC will shake out before they have to make a decision.  Would Stanford or Cal even want to be associated with a conference that has teams like Boise St, SDSU, or Fresno St in it?  

2.  Go independent.  Losing all of the last PAC 12 money seems crazy.  

3.  Merge with MW and keep their money but probably lose some perceived status.  In reality though, a reconstructed PAC is going to be a G6 conference too.  

4.  Buy their way into the Big 12 or ACC.  I don't see this as reality.  

[Chalsean]

On 9/6/2024 at 10:30 AM, Wyobraska said:

It's tough.  It seems like they have very limited options to me but I can see why they are drawing this out to maximize their chances.  

For 2025 I think they are building out their own schedules and trying to get more P4 games

For 2026, their options seem slim. 

1.  Rebuild PAC 12.  Seems like a lot of money to spend and I'm not sure how much that helps them in the end.  $30 million per school is a lot of money when their budgets are getting slashed.  I don't know if the ACC will shake out before they have to make a decision.  Would Stanford or Cal even want to be associated with a conference that has teams like Boise St, SDSU, or Fresno St in it?  

2.  Go independent.  Losing all of the last PAC 12 money seems crazy.  

3.  Merge with MW and keep their money but probably lose some perceived status.  In reality though, a reconstructed PAC is going to be a G6 conference too.  

4.  Buy their way into the Big 12 or ACC.  I don't see this as reality.  

The only option that doesnt seem bat-sh*t crazy and/or within the realm of possibility is #3, but I just dont see them executing to it.  Seems to be a canyon size difference between P2 and MWC positions.  So the next 12 months will be very interesting.  I think the possibility of PAC and MWC both existing is nil.

Another interesting bit from the OSU guy was he kept referring to Power 5 and said PAC is a power conference while it exists.  That makes me think they are still on the rebuild path..  dont see how they will accomplish it but they must have some backdoor stuff going on to have any measure of confidence in that strategy.

[Wyobraska]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:01 AM, Chalsean said:

The only option that doesnt seem bat-sh*t crazy and/or within the realm of possibility is #3, but I just dont see them executing to it.  Seems to be a canyon size difference between P2 and MWC positions.  So the next 12 months will be very interesting.  I think the possibility of PAC and MWC both existing is nil.

Another interesting bit from the OSU guy was he kept referring to Power 5 and said PAC is a power conference while it exists.  That makes me think they are still on the rebuild path..  dont see how they will accomplish it but they must have some backdoor stuff going on to have any measure of confidence in that strategy.

It's crazy.  I agree that I think #3 is the only logical option but I think they will try to rebuild.  Maybe they can get a TV deal around $10-$15 million per year and they hope that further chaos works in their favor.  They might legally be P5 for now as far as some of that stuff but they are no longer a P5 conference.  I don't see them getting an automatic qualifier to the playoffs or anything like that.  They won't get an equal distribution with the Big 12 or ACC from the playoffs. 

It will be fascinating to watch play out.  

[wolf from 73]

On 9/6/2024 at 9:30 AM, Wyobraska said:

It's tough.  It seems like they have very limited options to me but I can see why they are drawing this out to maximize their chances.  

For 2025 I think they are building out their own schedules and trying to get more P4 games

For 2026, their options seem slim. 

1.  Rebuild PAC 12.  Seems like a lot of money to spend and I'm not sure how much that helps them in the end.  $30 million per school is a lot of money when their budgets are getting slashed.  I don't know if the ACC will shake out before they have to make a decision.  Would Stanford or Cal even want to be associated with a conference that has teams like Boise St, SDSU, or Fresno St in it?  

2.  Go independent.  Losing all of the last PAC 12 money seems crazy.  

3.  Merge with MW and keep their money but probably lose some perceived status.  In reality though, a reconstructed PAC is going to be a G6 conference too.  

4.  Buy their way into the Big 12 or ACC.  I don't see this as reality.  

It's sounds like they will try independence, hoping the ACC opens up for them. No matter what they do it will burn through all their money in a couple of years. They each pull 27 million from the Pac-12. At 54 million a year to fund their programs at a P-5 level is not sustainable for more than 3 years. There are also costs associated with running a conference. They are so stupid trying to deny their new reality.

[Wyobraska]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:23 AM, wolf from 73 said:

It's sounds like they will try independence, hoping the ACC opens up for them. No matter what they do it will burn through all their money in a couple of years. They each pull 27 million from the Pac-12. At 54 million a year to fund their programs at a P-5 level is not sustainable for more than 3 years. There are also costs associated with running a conference. They are so stupid trying to deny their new reality.

Probably hoping for an extension to their 2 timeline to rebuild the PAC.  They will forfeit a lot of money going independent and you are right, where are they going to get money for their budgets?  Who will give them a TV deal?  The CW buys games from the currently.  I wonder if the CW would start to produce games?  OSU and WSU couldn't pay for their own production like they do now.  

[Full]

On 9/6/2024 at 10:30 AM, Wyobraska said:

It's tough.  It seems like they have very limited options to me but I can see why they are drawing this out to maximize their chances.  

For 2025 I think they are building out their own schedules and trying to get more P4 games

For 2026, their options seem slim. 

1.  Rebuild PAC 12.  Seems like a lot of money to spend and I'm not sure how much that helps them in the end.  $30 million per school is a lot of money when their budgets are getting slashed.  I don't know if the ACC will shake out before they have to make a decision.  Would Stanford or Cal even want to be associated with a conference that has teams like Boise St, SDSU, or Fresno St in it?  

2.  Go independent.  Losing all of the last PAC 12 money seems crazy.  

3.  Merge with MW and keep their money but probably lose some perceived status.  In reality though, a reconstructed PAC is going to be a G6 conference too.  

4.  Buy their way into the Big 12 or ACC.  I don't see this as reality.  

The problem with option #1 is the ACC issue. While the Florida State/Clemson lawsuit is still hanging around, who wants to jump into a PAC-12 rebuild knowing the ACC will pick it over as soon as Florida State and Clemson bail.
 

Option #4 isn’t realistic.  They were P5 schools but also the bottom of the P5 teams with PAC-12 money.https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

Option #2 may be an option, but it’s short term at best. 
 

I think most fans on the outside know option #3 is the best available options, but WOSU seem determined to hold out as long as possible. 

[Wyobraska]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:32 AM, Full said:

The problem with option #1 is the ACC issue. While the Florida State/Clemson lawsuit is still hanging around, who wants to jump into a PAC-12 rebuild knowing the ACC will pick it over as soon as Florida State and Clemson bail.
 

Option #4 isn’t realistic.  They were P5 schools but also the bottom of the P5 teams with PAC-12 money.https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

Option #2 may be an option, but it’s short term at best. 
 

I think most fans on the outside know option #3 is the best available options, but WOSU seem determined to hold out as long as possible. 

I don't know if the ACC will pick up anyone from a rebuild PAC 12.  It would depend on how much weight Cal and Stanford have, but the ACC would be smart to stay closer to the East and add schools like Memphis and USF.  Their TV deal will eventually go down or stay flat.  Adding far flung schools like OSU and WSU doesn't make much sense for anyone besides Cal and Stanford really.  

[HawaiiMongoose]

On a radio talk show this morning, Hawaii's AD Craig Angelos was asked about OSU and WSU.  I didn't hear the interview but reportedly he said he thinks it will be very difficult for them to execute a Pac rebuild with just a subset of MWC members.  Angelos also thinks it will be challenging for them to fill out their football schedules, especially with respect to October and November games, if they don't join a conference.

Nothing surprising there but it does supply another data point about what assumptions (right or wrong) may be driving the MWC's strategy right now.

[Full]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:39 AM, Wyobraska said:

I don't know if the ACC will pick up anyone from a rebuild PAC 12.  It would depend on how much weight Cal and Stanford have, but the ACC would be smart to stay closer to the East and add schools like Memphis and USF.  Their TV deal will eventually go down or stay flat.  Adding far fling schools like OSU and WSU doesn't make much sense for anyone besides Cal and Stanford really.  

I assume the PAC would want USF and Memphis as part of their rebuild.  I don’t think they want just the top 6 MW teams. 

[Wyobraska]

On 9/6/2024 at 12:09 PM, Full said:

I assume the PAC would want USF and Memphis as part of their rebuild.  I don’t think they want just the top 6 MW teams. 

If you are USF and Memphis, that can't be an enticing offer with the potential ACC drama like you mentioned.  Plus, how much different would the payouts be from the rebuild PAC 12 to the AAC when you factor in exit fees and travel?  

I think the PAC 12 might be thinking, get to 8 members and then see what happens but I don't see many schools wanting to join that conference.  Maybe some Texas schools that aren't getting full payouts from the AAC but would the PAC 12 want them?