HawaiiMongoose Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/2/2024 at 10:17 AM, wolf from 73 said: Nevada and Wyoming need to finalize their 2025 football season and not help out the Pac-2. We are the only remaining MW teams that have 1 available game left. Don't forget the Hawaii exemption. All four MWC schools that will play conference games at Hawaii next season will have the option of adding a 13th game, which could be played home or away against OSU or WSU. The same goes for Hawaii, which so far has only 12 games scheduled for 2025 (with seven at home). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawaiiMongoose Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 It's pretty clear there's a game of chicken being played here. As we all know the Pac-MWC scheduling agreement includes a section committing both parties to negotiate in good faith on a full merger of the two conferences, with no members of either conference left behind. My guess is that OSU and WSU were in favor of extending the agreement for another year, but have declined thus far to seriously engage with the MWC on the merger negotiations. This has convinced the MWC that OSU and WSU only want the extension to buy the Pac enough time to find a media partner willing to put up enough money to enable the Pac to cherry-pick selected MWC members, rather than settle for a full merger. Consequently the MWC pulled the plug on extending the agreement in the hope doing so will force OSU and WSU to commit to the full merger rather than get stuck with 2025 football schedules that will hurt their programs (either because they'll have to play more road than home games or have to line up multiple FCS buy games or both). If all of that is correct, then the thing to watch out for now is whether multiple MWC schools break ranks with their conference-mates and sign individual agreements to play OSU and/or WSU in 2025, basically helping to defuse the scheduling crisis in the hope of being invited into a rebuilt Pac that excludes those MWC conference-mates. Right now the MWC appears to have the upper hand, but if it can't enforce solidarity among its members then it could lose the high ground very quickly. And of course the wild card here is whether the Pac can find that media partner that will make a best-of-the-rest conference financially attractive enough to convince multiple MWC and AAC schools to join. Stay tuned. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteedLaw Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/3/2024 at 3:39 AM, HawaiiMongoose said: It's pretty clear there's a game of chicken being played here. As we all know the Pac-MWC scheduling agreement includes a section committing both parties to negotiate in good faith on a full merger of the two conferences, with no members of either conference left behind. My guess is that OSU and WSU were in favor of extending the agreement for another year, but have declined thus far to seriously engage with the MWC on the merger negotiations. This has convinced the MWC that OSU and WSU only want the extension to buy the Pac enough time to find a media partner willing to put up enough money to enable the Pac to cherry-pick selected MWC members, rather than settle for a full merger. Consequently the MWC pulled the plug on extending the agreement in the hope doing so will force OSU and WSU to commit to the full merger rather than get stuck with 2025 football schedules that will hurt their programs (either because they'll have to play more road than home games or have to line up multiple FCS buy games or both). If all of that is correct, then the thing to watch out for now is whether multiple MWC schools break ranks with their conference-mates and sign individual agreements to play OSU and/or WSU in 2025, basically helping to defuse the scheduling crisis in the hope of being invited into a rebuilt Pac that excludes those MWC conference-mates. Right now the MWC appears to have the upper hand, but if it can't enforce solidarity among its members then it could lose the high ground very quickly. And of course the wild card here is whether the Pac can find that media partner that will make a best-of-the-rest conference financially attractive enough to convince multiple MWC and AAC schools to join. Stay tuned. I totally agree, but would also add the PAC-2 is totally overplaying their hand here. As it stands, they have zero leverage right now to convince or poach anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southfresno Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Mountain West is not unified. Even if you are committed, there's no way to know if the others are. Classic prisoners dilemma. The result is that several of the schools will break off and join the PAC if they are invited. The PAC could really grease the wheel if they also are willing to pick up a lot of the fees and have a good media deal in hand. Then they would have the advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southfresno Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/2/2024 at 1:11 PM, RebelRobert said: PAC-10 UNLV SDSU Oregon State Washington State Boise State Fresno State Colorado State New Mexico Hawaii (Football Only) Gonzaga (All Sports but Football) Pretty good list. The Hawaii Gonzaga duo makes a lot of sense. I don't think New Mexico is on the list though. Nevada, AF, and Wyoming have a better chance because of rivalries. If OSU/WSU are hoping to lure Cal and Stanford back (pipe dream), then they should go with Nevada. Good historic and geographic fit with the others too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RebelRobert Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/3/2024 at 2:06 PM, southfresno said: Pretty good list. The Hawaii Gonzaga duo makes a lot of sense. I don't think New Mexico is on the list though. Nevada, AF, and Wyoming have a better chance because of rivalries. If OSU/WSU are hoping to lure Cal and Stanford back (pipe dream), then they should go with Nevada. Good historic and geographic fit with the others too. Air Force has to be a no go for anything but Football only. They do not belong at this level in all the other sports and can’t compete long term with the NIL in place now. UNR has business at this level either and should be relegated to play with Idaho and South Dakota state where they belong. Wyoming is a dead program. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utgrizfan Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/3/2024 at 1:06 PM, southfresno said: Pretty good list. The Hawaii Gonzaga duo makes a lot of sense. I don't think New Mexico is on the list though. Nevada, AF, and Wyoming have a better chance because of rivalries. If OSU/WSU are hoping to lure Cal and Stanford back (pipe dream), then they should go with Nevada. Good historic and geographic fit with the others too. CAL in particular is in a no win finacial situation and I think they will be forced to reconsider their ACC move eventually. Bare minimum they'd probably put Football in the new PAC but that would be it, probably stick the rest of their sports in the WCC. Stanford can go Independent due to their Donor base. Also the PAC would only Poach 6 MWC schools to save as much $$ as possible, not 7: OSU Wazzu Boise Fresno SDSU UNLV CSU *Hawaii: Football Only Gonzaga Gives you 8 full time members which satisfies the conditions to be a full Conference. Play like this through the initial TV Contract then expand once TV renegotiations open up again and if its viable. The MWC would be able to backfill pretty easily and I think would be a solid Conference. Similar to above could initially go to 10 schools and then when the Contract gets renegotioed could expand to 12-14 and to be in a better position to absorb more potential PAC poaching: SJSU, Nevada, USU, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, *NMSU, *UTEP, *Montana, *MSU *NDSU + *SDSU: Football only (If Air Force doesn't want to stick around, backfill with Idaho) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyobraska Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/3/2024 at 12:36 PM, southfresno said: Mountain West is not unified. Even if you are committed, there's no way to know if the others are. Classic prisoners dilemma. The result is that several of the schools will break off and join the PAC if they are invited. The PAC could really grease the wheel if they also are willing to pick up a lot of the fees and have a good media deal in hand. Then they would have the advantage. What's your definition of a good media deal here? I doubt the PAC 12 picks up much of anything because they will more than likely have to pay their own penalty to the MW for poaching teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
415hawaiiboy Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Why have two West Coast football conferences? Just have one conference and get the best media deal. Also, a Hawaii poster on another board mentioned bowl tie-ins. What will happen with that? Lots of moving pieces and for what looks like a G5 but with less leverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agswin Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Yeah, again, when it comes right down to it, who on that list is really going to pony up the $$ to pay the exit fees? As much as a few of you would love to decouple and crash the MWC, I just don't see anybody with $13 or $26 million in their pocket willing to roll the dice... Maybe BSU and SDSU would like to try, but I doubt either is willing to throw away the money for an unknown future They always think their 5#!+ smells better than the other programs in the MWC, so I am sure we will soon see how that goes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alum93 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/3/2024 at 11:11 AM, SteedLaw said: I totally agree, but would also add the PAC-2 is totally overplaying their hand here. As it stands, they have zero leverage right now to convince or poach anyone. You do understand the history of the MWC? Airport meeting? To think that all the schools will stick together no matter what is... Optimistic. Will it take a pretty big carrot to pull the top schools? Sure it will. But never underestimate greed. The P12 thought they were sitting pretty just a few years ago. Now you have USC and UCLA playing in the BiG. Changes happen extremely quickly. Is it likely as of today that WSU and OSU can pull off a best of the rest? Not from what is know publicly. But not having a scheduling agreement for next year seems to be a very small crack forming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvspuds Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/3/2024 at 1:11 PM, utgrizfan said: CAL in particular is in a no win finacial situation and I think they will be forced to reconsider their ACC move eventually. Bare minimum they'd probably put Football in the new PAC but that would be it, probably stick the rest of their sports in the WCC. Stanford can go Independent due to their Donor base. Also the PAC would only Poach 6 MWC schools to save as much $$ as possible, not 7: OSU Wazzu Boise Fresno SDSU UNLV CSU *Hawaii: Football Only Gonzaga Gives you 8 full time members which satisfies the conditions to be a full Conference. Play like this through the initial TV Contract then expand once TV renegotiations open up again and if its viable. The MWC would be able to backfill pretty easily and I think would be a solid Conference. Similar to above could initially go to 10 schools and then when the Contract gets renegotioed could expand to 12-14 and to be in a better position to absorb more potential PAC poaching: SJSU, Nevada, USU, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, *NMSU, *UTEP, *Montana, *MSU *NDSU + *SDSU: Football only (If Air Force doesn't want to stick around, backfill with Idaho) A whole lot of major assumptions here. How do you know any of those FCS schools want to move up to a depleted MW..It cost more money to be at the FBS/G5 level than FCS. Why would UTEP and NMSU want to leave astable conference to move to the MW? Wouldn't Air force, New Mexico and USU immediately look towards moving to the AAC. NDSU and SDSU are far away. I suspect, if the Pac 2 poaches 6 schools the MW would just fold up the tent. There is zero financial benefit to two G5 conferences out west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyobraska Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 On 9/3/2024 at 4:11 PM, nvspuds said: A whole lot of major assumptions here. How do you know any of those FCS schools want to move up to a depleted MW..It cost more money to be at the FBS/G5 level than FCS. Why would UTEP and NMSU want to leave astable conference to move to the MW? Wouldn't Air force, New Mexico and USU immediately look towards moving to the AAC. NDSU and SDSU are far away. I suspect, if the Pac 2 poaches 6 schools the MW would just fold up the tent. There is zero financial benefit to two G5 conferences out west. If the schools that have to leave pay exit fees and the PAC 2 has to pay upwards of $60 million, then they would probably try to make the MW work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvspuds Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2024 at 4:51 PM, Wyobraska said: If the schools that have to leave pay exit fees and the PAC 2 has to pay upwards of $60 million, then they would probably try to make the MW work. I think that is true..However, it is still very expensive for FCS schools to move up and it is unlikely the remaining MW schools would want to split any of their windfall to grease the wheels for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyobraska Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2024 at 6:12 PM, nvspuds said: I think that is true..However, it is still very expensive for FCS schools to move up and it is unlikely the remaining MW schools would want to split any of their windfall to grease the wheels for them. It is an interesting question on what would happen. The barrier to entry for FCS is larger than ever. It takes a much bigger commitment for them to join in years past. I don't know if Texas schools would be interested in moving West when there are more eyeballs in the East. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utgrizfan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2024 at 4:11 PM, nvspuds said: A whole lot of major assumptions here. How do you know any of those FCS schools want to move up to a depleted MW..It cost more money to be at the FBS/G5 level than FCS. Why would UTEP and NMSU want to leave astable conference to move to the MW? Wouldn't Air force, New Mexico and USU immediately look towards moving to the AAC. NDSU and SDSU are far away. I suspect, if the Pac 2 poaches 6 schools the MW would just fold up the tent. There is zero financial benefit to two G5 conferences out west. The Dakota States admittedly are a wish pick of mine, realistically they probably wouldn't be considered for a MWC rebuild until after the new initial TV of the poached conference. UTEP and NMSU I have no doubt would want to rejoin their old WAC rivals and have a much easier travel situation to save $$. A more realistic scenario: USU, Nevada, SJSU, WYO, AF, New Mexico, *NMSU, *UTEP, *Montana, *MSU, *Idaho, *Sac State A much more regional Conference (by Western Standards) and a pretty decent one IMO. In terms of move up fees the MWC flush with cash could pay half of all the teams move up fees (so in this case 10 million) and have the new schools pay off what they owe over the course of the initial TV deal, lesser shares initially, etc. They'd still be making more then they are now in FCS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UofMTigers Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2024 at 4:39 AM, HawaiiMongoose said: It's pretty clear there's a game of chicken being played here. As we all know the Pac-MWC scheduling agreement includes a section committing both parties to negotiate in good faith on a full merger of the two conferences, with no members of either conference left behind. My guess is that OSU and WSU were in favor of extending the agreement for another year, but have declined thus far to seriously engage with the MWC on the merger negotiations. This has convinced the MWC that OSU and WSU only want the extension to buy the Pac enough time to find a media partner willing to put up enough money to enable the Pac to cherry-pick selected MWC members, rather than settle for a full merger. Consequently the MWC pulled the plug on extending the agreement in the hope doing so will force OSU and WSU to commit to the full merger rather than get stuck with 2025 football schedules that will hurt their programs (either because they'll have to play more road than home games or have to line up multiple FCS buy games or both). If all of that is correct, then the thing to watch out for now is whether multiple MWC schools break ranks with their conference-mates and sign individual agreements to play OSU and/or WSU in 2025, basically helping to defuse the scheduling crisis in the hope of being invited into a rebuilt Pac that excludes those MWC conference-mates. Right now the MWC appears to have the upper hand, but if it can't enforce solidarity among its members then it could lose the high ground very quickly. And of course the wild card here is whether the Pac can find that media partner that will make a best-of-the-rest conference financially attractive enough to convince multiple MWC and AAC schools to join. Stay tuned. Memphis, USF, and Tulane are really hoping the ACC loses like 5 teams plus maybe ND so we can get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyobraska Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2024 at 6:45 PM, utgrizfan said: The Dakota States admittedly are a wish pick of mine, realistically they probably wouldn't be considered for a MWC rebuild until after the new initial TV of the poached conference. UTEP and NMSU I have no doubt would want to rejoin their old WAC rivals and have a much easier travel situation to save $$. A more realistic scenario: USU, Nevada, SJSU, WYO, AF, New Mexico, *NMSU, *UTEP, *Montana, *MSU, *Idaho, *Sac State A much more regional Conference (by Western Standards) and a pretty decent one IMO. In terms of move up fees the MWC flush with cash could pay half of all the teams move up fees (so in this case 10 million) and have the new schools pay off what they owe over the course of the initial TV deal, lesser shares initially, etc. They'd still be making more then they are now in FCS. I would think Idaho would be pretty gun shy about a move back to FBS. They seem to be doing well in the Big Sky. That might change if the Montana's left but I don't think I have read even one article suggesting they should give FBS a go again. @VandalPride97 any thing to contribute here by chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilPoke Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2024 at 2:11 PM, utgrizfan said: CAL in particular is in a no win finacial situation and I think they will be forced to reconsider their ACC move eventually. Bare minimum they'd probably put Football in the new PAC but that would be it, probably stick the rest of their sports in the WCC. Stanford can go Independent due to their Donor base. Also the PAC would only Poach 6 MWC schools to save as much $$ as possible, not 7: OSU Wazzu Boise Fresno SDSU UNLV CSU *Hawaii: Football Only Gonzaga Gives you 8 full time members which satisfies the conditions to be a full Conference. Play like this through the initial TV Contract then expand once TV renegotiations open up again and if its viable. The MWC would be able to backfill pretty easily and I think would be a solid Conference. Similar to above could initially go to 10 schools and then when the Contract gets renegotioed could expand to 12-14 and to be in a better position to absorb more potential PAC poaching: SJSU, Nevada, USU, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, *NMSU, *UTEP, *Montana, *MSU *NDSU + *SDSU: Football only (If Air Force doesn't want to stick around, backfill with Idaho) If this happens, the MW is not backfilling with FCS schools. Two FCS schools to get up to eight and see what happens in the college football landscape. There's $300M in the war chest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utgrizfan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 On 9/3/2024 at 7:41 PM, EvilPoke said: If this happens, the MW is not backfilling with FCS schools. Two FCS schools to get up to eight and see what happens in the college football landscape. There's $300M in the war chest. If that's the case they'd probably call up UTEP and NMSU then call it a day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
