Conference Realignment thread

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 8/16/2024 at 11:49 PM, wolf from 73 said:

Gloria mentioned that the MWC was about to start media negotiations with potential media partners and hoped to have an agreement in place by next spring. Most of the estimates that I have seen seem to think the MWC media contract would generate from 7-10 million per team as the conference stands now. Jim Williams an industry insider estimates adding WS and OSU would only add about 10% to a new contract. If a new contract is in place by next spring the exit fees will go from 17 to about 20-23 million per team for more than 1 year notice and close to 40 million for less than 1 year notice. If the Pac-2 only generate 10% for the MWC nobody will pay anything to join them.

"The addition of Oregon State and Washington State would mean only a 10% to 15% increase in the current Mountain West deal, according to one veteran industry source with experience in television negotiations."

"I don't think it will be that much," countered Jim Williams, Emmy-winning sports media consultant. "I would think more like 10 [percent]. Fifteen percent is way too much." 

Forgetting the osu/wazzu part for a minute..

getting a media deal in the 7-10m/team would range would be a bigger percentage raise than any other conference has gotten lately.  More than big 10, sec, big 12, aac, even sunbelt.

Thats not realistic in any way at this time. 

[Gasherbrum]

On 8/18/2024 at 12:50 AM, Wyobraska said:

Each school would have to pay their portion of the settlement but I don't think the MW is going to stipulate how much you have to pay athletes of the $21 million a school is allotted.  The schools who don't pay as much just won't be as competitive probably.  

I agree though it is a huge change and some schools might need to decide if they want to fund sports at this level for all of the reasons you mentioned 

No MWC school will come anywhere close to the $ 21 million cap - the proposed revenue sharing model limits the amount per school to the lower of 22% of revenue or $ 21 million. Most MW schools would be eligible to share around $ 4 million with its athletes next year.

just like the conference doesn’t dictate how much members must pay coaches or award scholarships, it won’t direct whether the schools must participate in the optional revenue sharing plan. But most schools are going to participate in revenue sharing, otherwise they will be at a significant disadvantage in recruiting.

[Someone Else]

2 hours ago, Gasherbrum said:

No MWC school will come anywhere close to the $ 21 million cap - the proposed revenue sharing model limits the amount per school to the lower of 22% of revenue or $ 21 million. Most MW schools would be eligible to share around $ 4 million with its athletes next year.

just like the conference doesn’t dictate how much members must pay coaches or award scholarships, it won’t direct whether the schools must participate in the optional revenue sharing plan. But most schools are going to participate in revenue sharing, otherwise they will be at a significant disadvantage in recruiting.

I hadn't seen the note about limiting the revenue sharing to the lower of the 22% of rev or 21 mil.  so thanks for that information.  is that for the revenue sharing going forward or for the amount due the plaintiffs ?  Or both?

[Gasherbrum]

The 22% is the revenue sharing percentage going forward subject to the anticipated $ 21 million cap for 2025-26. 
The proposed $ 2.8 Billion Settlement for House v NCAA is separate.  You can see a good summary at NIL-NCAA.com

[wolf from 73]

On 8/18/2024 at 3:01 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Forgetting the osu/wazzu part for a minute..

getting a media deal in the 7-10m/team would range would be a bigger percentage raise than any other conference has gotten lately.  More than big 10, sec, big 12, aac, even sunbelt.

Thats not realistic in any way at this time. 

Last year I read a couple of media insiders make that estimate. A few month-ago NSN published an article about the upcoming negotiations for the MWC.

What Big East's new television deal tells us about Mountain West's upcoming negotiations.                         https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/what-big-easts-new-television-deal-tells-us-about-mountain-wests-upcoming-negotiations

[Gasherbrum]

With the departure of the 10 PAC-12 schools to Mid-West & East Coast leagues there are significantly fewer late games available for telecast in the Pacific Coast time zone.
 

With the MWC now the sole FBS league on the west coast you’d think it would get a decent bump in its Media contract renewal due to simple supply & demand.

[utgrizfan]

On 8/18/2024 at 10:44 AM, Gasherbrum said:

With the departure of the 10 PAC-12 schools to Mid-West & East Coast leagues there are significantly fewer late games available for telecast in the Pacific Coast time zone.
 

With the MWC now the sole FBS league on the west coast you’d think it would get a decent bump in its Media contract renewal due to simple supply & demand.

Why I disagree about the one guy saying 15% is to much for OSU and Wazzu. They both do bring the Seattle and Portland Markets due to Alumni/being the only other FBS team in the State (Wazzu in particular if I remember correctly was in the Top 5 of Pac12 teams in terms of TV Viewership over the last decade, I'll try to find article).

I still think adding OSU and Wazzu would be beneficial for both the MWC and the PAC2. Would probably be considered the top Mid Major Conference and have an advantage to get to the Playoff and give the MWC additional strength in numbers.

Beavs and Cougs however need to wake the +++++ up if they haven't already blown their chance.

[Chalsean]

On 8/18/2024 at 4:01 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Forgetting the osu/wazzu part for a minute..

getting a media deal in the 7-10m/team would range would be a bigger percentage raise than any other conference has gotten lately.  More than big 10, sec, big 12, aac, even sunbelt.

Thats not realistic in any way at this time. 

If I remember correctly, MWC intentionally took less $$ this contract for a shorter term.  I think the expectation is to do a "normal" duration contract this time.

[Chalsean]

On 8/18/2024 at 1:24 PM, utgrizfan said:

Why I disagree about the one guy saying 15% is to much for OSU and Wazzu. They both do bring the Seattle and Portland Markets due to Alumni/being the only other FBS team in the State (Wazzu in particular if I remember correctly was in the Top 5 of Pac12 teams in terms of TV Viewership over the last decade, I'll try to find article).

I still think adding OSU and Wazzu would be beneficial for both the MWC and the PAC2. Would probably be considered the top Mid Major Conference and have an advantage to get to the Playoff and give the MWC additional strength in numbers.

Beavs and Cougs however need to wake the +++++ up if they haven't already blown their chance.

If they brought Seattle/Portland theyd be in a P4 conference.  However I do agree it would be beneficial to add them.  *If* they dont act like superior jack wagons.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 8/18/2024 at 11:28 AM, Gasherbrum said:

The 22% is the revenue sharing percentage going forward subject to the anticipated $ 21 million cap for 2025-26. 
The proposed $ 2.8 Billion Settlement for House v NCAA is separate.  You can see a good summary at NIL-NCAA.com

So that is good information I would just be careful because it seems they count private schools’ revenues (listed as **) as zeros then average out for the conference.  That makes some conferences that have several private schools seem to have less average revenue than they actually do.  Interestingly, they have AF as ‘n/a’ instead of ‘**’ and the math suggests they weren’t included in the average.  That doesn’t effect what you’re talking about, just the actual numbers if we’re talking about percentages.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 8/18/2024 at 12:32 PM, wolf from 73 said:

Last year I read a couple of media insiders make that estimate. A few month-ago NSN published an article about the upcoming negotiations for the MWC.

What Big East's new television deal tells us about Mountain West's upcoming negotiations.                         https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/what-big-easts-new-television-deal-tells-us-about-mountain-wests-upcoming-negotiations

I recall this article! There are three major caveats, two of which are noted in the article.  One, the Big East has much bigger brands, and extensive national success since their last deal was made.  Two, they have linear media partners in place willing to spend and the big east has viewers from coast to coast.  These are mentioned in the article that serve as an impediment to doubling the payout for the mwc.  The third thing is, is that the MWC signed a short term deal, and in that time the market has dried up significantly.  The big East had a different strategy, kinda more like what the aac did and went for a 12 year contract previously.  They were due for an inflation bump, the mwc already appreciated much of the inflation bump when they signed their current deal.  Now is not a good time to be looking for a new contract.  Things could change in a few years, but the timing couldn’t be much worse today.

A raise is still due! The math I’ve seen, with the PAC2 included, I would expect the average to be in the 6.X/team range.   That is a significant raise, nearly double.  I do think the first years will be lower and the latter years higher.  

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 8/18/2024 at 5:09 PM, Chalsean said:

If I remember correctly, MWC intentionally took less $$ this contract for a shorter term.  I think the expectation is to do a "normal" duration contract this time.

That probably backfired tbh.  Guaranteed money and guaranteed raises in a time of uncertainty is gold.  If I were the MW I would seek merely an extension timed to end right before the next major round of negotiations, perhaps undercut someone else looking for a bigger raise (maybe ~2028ish?)

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 8/18/2024 at 7:55 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

I recall this article! There are three major caveats, two of which are noted in the article.  One, the Big East has much bigger brands, and extensive national success since their last deal was made.  Two, they have linear media partners in place willing to spend and the big east has viewers from coast to coast.  These are mentioned in the article that serve as an impediment to doubling the payout for the mwc.  The third thing is, is that the MWC signed a short term deal, and in that time the market has dried up significantly.  The big East had a different strategy, kinda more like what the aac did and went for a 12 year contract previously.  They were due for an inflation bump, the mwc already appreciated much of the inflation bump when they signed their current deal.  Now is not a good time to be looking for a new contract.  Things could change in a few years, but the timing couldn’t be much worse today.

A raise is still due! The math I’ve seen, with the PAC2 included, I would expect the average to be in the 6.X/team range.   That is a significant raise, nearly double.  I do think the first years will be lower and the latter years higher.  

Yeah, I've been thinking around $6 million per school per year without OSU and WSU, maybe $7 million per year with them.  For comparison, the AAC's current deal works out to $6 million per school per year ($83 million per year in total divided 14 ways), but the distribution is uneven with the legacy members getting more and the newbies getting less.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 8/19/2024 at 2:05 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Yeah, I've been thinking around $6 million per school per year without OSU and WSU, maybe $7 million per year with them.  For comparison, the AAC's current deal works out to $6 million per school per year ($83 million per year in total divided 14 ways), but the distribution is uneven with the legacy members getting more and the newbies getting less.

If the PAC2 had enough value to raise an entire conference up by ~$1m/team then the acc would’ve at least have publicly considered taking them on as partial members.  That would’ve made each of their values around $14m/year, that’s not realistic for them.  The 6.x would probably include them and it would probably be closer to 6.1 than 6.9.  Still a really good raise.

The aac has new members that are getting staggered pay, but they are currently an equal revenue conference, meaning after the (silent) introductory period they will all be even members(navy, army, wsu aside).  Now, I expect that to change with their new deal, whenever that will be, to be more competitive.. kind of like a miniature relegation model.  But that is not in place currently.  They average $7m/team but they intentionally took lower payouts on the front end to get more later, and it’s starting to show.  Each of the legacy members will get over $10m/team this year, for example.  Many of them already did last year.

[Gasherbrum]

On 8/19/2024 at 1:39 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

So that is good information I would just be careful because it seems they count private schools’ revenues (listed as **) as zeros then average out for the conference.  That makes some conferences that have several private schools seem to have less average revenue than they actually do.  Interestingly, they have AF as ‘n/a’ instead of ‘**’ and the math suggests they weren’t included in the average.  That doesn’t effect what you’re talking about, just the actual numbers if we’re talking about percentages.

The averages are for the public schools only, the assumption is that the private schools in a conference are on a par with the public schools in that same conference. Air Force is noted as "n/a" since it appears the three D1 service academies will not be participating in revenue sharing with their athletes.

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 8/18/2024 at 8:21 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

If the PAC2 had enough value to raise an entire conference up by ~$1m/team then the acc would’ve at least have publicly considered taking them on as partial members.  That would’ve made each of their values around $14m/year, that’s not realistic for them.  The 6.x would probably include them and it would probably be closer to 6.1 than 6.9.  Still a really good raise.

The aac has new members that are getting staggered pay, but they are currently an equal revenue conference, meaning after the (silent) introductory period they will all be even members(navy, army, wsu aside).  Now, I expect that to change with their new deal, whenever that will be, to be more competitive.. kind of like a miniature relegation model.  But that is not in place currently.  They average $7m/team but they intentionally took lower payouts on the front end to get more later, and it’s starting to show.  Each of the legacy members will get over $10m/team this year, for example.  Many of them already did last year.

The current AAC TV deal with ESPN runs through 2033-34.  So unless something changes there will be no "new deal" until 2034-35.

When it was signed in 2019 the deal ran through 2031-2032.  However when the conference lost its three most valuable members to the Big 12, the end of the deal was pushed out two years.  The extension was the quid-pro-quo for ESPN not reducing the payout, as Aresco's goal was to prevent the conference from taking a haircut.

The deal, which originally was to expire in 2032, has been extended through the 2033-2034 season. The extension came after the AAC lost the three schools and added the six.  

“We negotiated with ESPN and they kept us whole, which was really remarkable, losing three of your premier teams,” Aresco said. “And in exchange for that, we extended our deal a couple of years. We are thrilled because we keep the exposure we had before and they also gave us enough revenue to bring on the six teams. ESPN has been great to us.”

https://herosports.com/fbs-aac-commissioner-mike-aresco-mnmn/

As for the AAC's average TV payout per year per team, under the original deal it was slated to be $7 million ($83 million average total payout per year over the life of the deal, divided 12 ways).  Since there was no change in the payout with the extension and since the number of teams increased from 12 to 14, the average payout per year per team declined to $6 million beginning in 2023-24, although legacy members have continued to receive $7 million thanks to short-term distributions of the exit fees paid by the departing schools and unequal TV revenue sharing with the replacement schools.  And yes, the plan is equalization at some point, although when Aresco said this in July 2023 he didn't explain the path or timing to get there.

The six new members will not receive the same conference payout as the eight returning members at first, though Aresco said the plan is equalization at some point. The AAC’s TV deal with ESPN has paid members around $7 million per school. A mix of exit fees from departing members and other factors will keep the eight returning members whole. The six new schools won’t make that much but will still make more than they did in Conference USA.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4722420/2023/07/26/aac-football-members-conference-realignment/

Finally, when you say the AAC's legacy members "will get over $10m/team this year" I'm pretty sure that amount is the total distribution from the AAC to the members, not just the TV payout distribution.  The total conference distribution includes other money, for example CFP, bowl, and NCAA tournament credit revenue.  The situation is similar in the MWC, where the total distribution ranges from $5 million to just under $8 million per full member (variances are due to differing NCAA tournament credit distributions and Boise State's special deal) but the TV payout distribution is only $4 million per full member.

[Wyobraska]

Some people starting to report the possibility of UConn to the Big 12 but I haven't read any thing substantial at this point.  

I would think the Big 12 would want to wait on the ACC situation first.  

https://www.krem.com/video/sports/locked-on/lo-national/big-12-show/source-uconn-joining-expansion-big-12-conference-within-two-weeks-imminent-realignment-move/535-946b2b8f-bc6c-407a-b251-eb616d67b9ea

[smithy]

The one problem with Uconn is that they are a Basketball only type of school and they don't bring anything else in winning in their other sports. They are better off going for Gonzaga which is closer. Now if Gloria can pull that off for MW...that would be a coup.

[SteedLaw]

On 8/21/2024 at 11:32 AM, Wyobraska said:

Some people starting to report the possibility of UConn to the Big 12 but I haven't read any thing substantial at this point.  

I would think the Big 12 would want to wait on the ACC situation first.  

https://www.krem.com/video/sports/locked-on/lo-national/big-12-show/source-uconn-joining-expansion-big-12-conference-within-two-weeks-imminent-realignment-move/535-946b2b8f-bc6c-407a-b251-eb616d67b9ea

UCONN to the Big 12 is a no brainer and it was bound to happen sooner than later. It does not surprise me that this move would be “imminent”.  Yormark has stated over and over his desire to have the BIG XII be seen as the pre-eminent BB league, and UCONN is ripe for the pickings. 

My guess is they add just UCONN, then wait a few more years to see what happens with the ACC.

what it would mean though is that, for sure, WSU and OSU are out of the Big 12 contenders. 

It really is MWC or bust for those two schools and the longer they wait, the less leverage they have. 

[utgrizfan]

In other Realignment knews UTSA us merging with UT San Antonio Health with the goal of achieving AAU status apparently. Could open future possibilities of moving up/higher in the Realignment pecking order down the road at least what I'm reading on other Forums.