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Conference Realignment thread

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On 7/23/2024 at 12:38 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Perhaps, although I think Gloria needs to be a bit careful (and probably will) about not overplaying the MWC's hand.  An extension of the scheduling agreement would benefit both parties.  From the MWC's perspective it helps increase the conference's schedule strength, which theoretically increases the likelihood of the MWC champion being awarded the G5's guaranteed CFP bid.

Note Vannini's comment that "for this upcoming football season, the Mountain West is pushing its strength of schedule: League members will play 35 games against Power 5 opponents (including Oregon State and Washington State), with 15 of those games at home, by far the most of any Group of 5 conference."  Pulling the plug on the scheduling agreement would completely change that calculus for 2025-26.

To me it would be enough of a win to just extend the agreement for another year at the current price in exchange for a commitment by OSU and WSU to commence formal merger negotiations in the fall.  I don't see that being a big issue for OSU and WSU now that it's becoming more apparent that there will be no movement in the ACC for at least another year:

https://x.com/PeteThamel/status/1815360731220709847

Hmm..  but does it?  Are they Power 5 opponents?  This is the year of the shuffle and I'm pretty sure that means P4 starting this year.  OSU/WSU has lost coaches and talent, it will be interesting to see how they add/subtract from our SoS.  Its a nice sell job by Gloria but really what weve done is added 2 G5 teams to everyones schedules.

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On 7/23/2024 at 12:38 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Perhaps, although I think Gloria needs to be a bit careful (and probably will) about not overplaying the MWC's hand.  An extension of the scheduling agreement would benefit both parties.  From the MWC's perspective it helps increase the conference's schedule strength, which theoretically increases the likelihood of the MWC champion being awarded the G5's guaranteed CFP bid.

Note Vannini's comment that "for this upcoming football season, the Mountain West is pushing its strength of schedule: League members will play 35 games against Power 5 opponents (including Oregon State and Washington State), with 15 of those games at home, by far the most of any Group of 5 conference."  Pulling the plug on the scheduling agreement would completely change that calculus for 2025-26.

To me it would be enough of a win to just extend the agreement for another year at the current price in exchange for a commitment by OSU and WSU to commence formal merger negotiations in the fall.  I don't see that being a big issue for OSU and WSU now that it's becoming more apparent that there will be no movement in the ACC for at least another year:

https://x.com/PeteThamel/status/1815360731220709847

There will be no movement in the ACC for at least another year…could be much longer given how long these legal battles could go.

As for the MWC, there is zero incentive to not force a decision out of OSU and WSU…zero.

They need us, we do not there them. Both parties would benefit long-term from a merger, but that is where the synergy ends. 

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On 7/23/2024 at 8:41 AM, Chalsean said:

Hmm..  but does it?  Are they Power 5 opponents?  This is the year of the shuffle and I'm pretty sure that means P4 starting this year.  OSU/WSU has lost coaches and talent, it will be interesting to see how they add/subtract from our SoS.  Its a nice sell job by Gloria but really what weve done is added 2 G5 teams to everyones schedules.

You and I may think that, but so long as the media is still willing to take the SOS pitch half seriously there's value in continuing to make it.  And if it pays off at the end of the season with a CFP berth for the MWC champion, having extended the football scheduling agreement with OSU and WSU to next season will look like a darn smart move.

Gloria is walking a fine line here.  It makes sense for her to play softball publicly.  Behind the scenes it makes sense to play hardball, but not to the point of making demands that would force OSU and WSU to walk away from the table.  It would be foolish IMHO to throw away another $14 million payment from the Pac and another year of being able to tout the MWC's superior SOS (whether real or imagined) if the only benefit is feeding the collective egos of the MWC membership.

And then there's the Godfather angle: keep your friends close and your enemies closer.  Staying engaged with OSU and WSU reduces the likelihood of them successfully orchestrating some behind-the-scenes divide-and-conquer effort that results in a subset of MWC schools defecting to the Pac.  As much as we'd like to think that risk is now zero, it's not and it won't be until OSU and WSU fully commit the money in their war chest to other purposes.

The bottom line is that I'd be satisfied with extracting a pledge from OSU and WSU to commence merger negotiations in the fall.  Giving them an ultimatum -- agree to a full merger now or the MWC will end the scheduling agreement after 2024-25 -- seems like overkill.

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On 7/23/2024 at 1:21 PM, nvspuds said:

It just sounds like the back and forth of negotiations going on.  Gloria Nevarez is neither the hero or the villain of the piece.  Everything will get decided above her level of authority.

 

 

 https://fansided.com/posts/oregon-state-washington-state-testing-mountain-west-patience-pac-12-drama
  

“If I were Oregon State and Washington State, I wouldn't want to join the ACC. To me, this is all about seeing what becomes of that other league. Who goes to the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and whatnot whenever that poorly managed league folds? It serves Oregon State and Washington State to link up with the Mountain West as a sign of strength, rename it the league the Pac-14 and then go from there.

Once the ACC collapses, be the ones to hand Cal and Stanford a life raft to help solidify the Pac-16.”

I agree.

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On 7/23/2024 at 11:24 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

That football agreement also laid out in writing a “good faith” effort for the Pac-12 to absorb all Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner at no cost, “as promptly as reasonably practicable,” in time for the 2025-26 or 2026-27 seasons. That hasn’t happened.

The 2025-26 season is 13 months away. The 2026-27 season is 25 months away. There is ample, ample time for this to happen. No need to rush. 

FAFO, The two are playing a game against Gloria and will lose. If they go on they will end up paying an entrance fee just to join the MW. Their financial assets will be eaten away, their teams will be decimated by players and coaches bailing on a rudderless ship with minimal income and fading fan support. They are holding to the same course that got them left behind and can't come to except the fact that they are now G-5. The longer they wait the further they will fall from a top G5 to a middle of the pack team. Gloria has already put them in a check-mate position but they don't know it yet.

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On 7/23/2024 at 12:41 PM, Chalsean said:

Hmm..  but does it?  Are they Power 5 opponents?  This is the year of the shuffle and I'm pretty sure that means P4 starting this year.  OSU/WSU has lost coaches and talent, it will be interesting to see how they add/subtract from our SoS.  Its a nice sell job by Gloria but really what weve done is added 2 G5 teams to everyones schedules.

Yeah, I don't think they'll be an upgrade over Boise or Air Force.

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3.  This has already taken more than a year, with recent comments by PAC presidents that it could take a full 6 months longer and the entire fall just to decide to do a merger, let alone actually effectuate any merger.  Such statements are hardly in  “good faith” or reflect action “as promptly as reasonably possible”.

The Pac-12 didn't even break up until Aug. of 2023. That's less than a year ago. The court cases decided in OSU/WSU's favor, enabling the conference to continue to exist, didn't happen until months after that. 

Yes, the Pac-12 did hire its own commissioner. There is conference business to be done until/if there is a merger. 

No one is disrespecting anyone. Heck, OSU has probably played more football games against MWC teams (the true measure of what a school thinks of another school) at MWC venues than anyone over the past decades. OSU has played AT every single MWC venue except Air Force in the last 30 years. How many Pac-12 teams have done that?

This is a monumental decision for OSU and WSU. It impacts everything and everybody involved with athletics. They have to be sure it's the right move. That's not true for the MWC. It simply goes on status quo if OSU/WSU don't join, and only improves significantly if they do.

These things take time. Nothing changes if this thing is done next week, this winter or next spring.

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Obviously none of us know what is happening behind the scenes, but the articles that have come out by those with insider knowledge is not painting a rosy picture from a MWC standpoint.  They're salty about something, we can debate what that something is.

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On 7/23/2024 at 1:16 PM, SteedLaw said:

https://fansided.com/posts/oregon-state-washington-state-testing-mountain-west-patience-pac-12-drama
  

“If I were Oregon State and Washington State, I wouldn't want to join the ACC. To me, this is all about seeing what becomes of that other league. Who goes to the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and whatnot whenever that poorly managed league folds? It serves Oregon State and Washington State to link up with the Mountain West as a sign of strength, rename it the league the Pac-14 and then go from there.

Once the ACC collapses, be the ones to hand Cal and Stanford a life raft to help solidify the Pac-16.”

I agree.

 

The Bay Area duo are so vulnerable.  

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if Cal/Stanford could get over themselves they had a decent group of 4 teams and the PAC name to rebuild with...but they gotta stick up their nose and do their thing. I don't get it.

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On 7/23/2024 at 5:21 PM, UofMTigers said:

if Cal/Stanford could get over themselves they had a decent group of 4 teams and the PAC name to rebuild with...but they gotta stick up their nose and do their thing. I don't get it.

They were desperate to remain in a power conference.  If that hadn't been an overriding consideration they could have built a nice little academically-focused non-power Pac with the four MWC R1 research universities west of the Rockies (Utah State, Nevada, UNLV, Hawaii) plus San Diego State (which will be an R1 soon) plus three of the UC schools in the Big West (UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine).

That would have given them nine members for football and twelve for Olympic sports, reasonable travel, and a presence in eight top-100 MSAs (#2 Los Angeles, #13 San Francisco-Oakland, #18 San Diego, #28 Sacramento, #29 Las Vegas, #36 San Jose, #55 Honolulu, #96 Spokane).

The remaining seven MWC schools could have bounced back with some combination of the Montanas, UTEP and NMSU and not missed a beat.  With Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force and Wyoming still in the conference the MWC would probably have ended up as strong or stronger in football than the rebuilt Pac.

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On 7/23/2024 at 2:16 PM, SteedLaw said:

https://fansided.com/posts/oregon-state-washington-state-testing-mountain-west-patience-pac-12-drama
  

“If I were Oregon State and Washington State, I wouldn't want to join the ACC. To me, this is all about seeing what becomes of that other league. Who goes to the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and whatnot whenever that poorly managed league folds? It serves Oregon State and Washington State to link up with the Mountain West as a sign of strength, rename it the league the Pac-14 and then go from there.

Once the ACC collapses, be the ones to hand Cal and Stanford a life raft to help solidify the Pac-16.”

I agree.

Cal - maybe.

Stanford will join the Big 10 or go independent before going to the MW-PAC.

Now - there's still that GOR that they have to figure out. I don't think the ACC is going anywhere unless there's the breakaway everyone thinks is inevitable. However, it won't happen until long after the Pac-2 need to figure out what they are doing.

However - the most likely scenario by far remains W/OSU + MW. There's nothing tangible in the way of this.

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On 7/23/2024 at 12:41 PM, Chalsean said:

Hmm..  but does it?  Are they Power 5 opponents?  This is the year of the shuffle and I'm pretty sure that means P4 starting this year.  OSU/WSU has lost coaches and talent, it will be interesting to see how they add/subtract from our SoS.  Its a nice sell job by Gloria but really what weve done is added 2 G5 teams to everyones schedules.

Nm

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On 7/20/2024 at 12:55 PM, EvilPoke said:

W/OSU is holding out hope that the ACC is rocked and/or implodes in the next 10 months ... which either opens up a spot in a Western Division with CalFordSMU or leaves CalFordSMU looking to join back into the Pac-12 - thereby changing the poaching math a lot. 

I would be doing the same thing in their shoes. 

 

As mentioned it's much more likely that when the ACC implodes the PAC14 (full merger) could extend a branch to both Stanford and CAL. I personally think they're way to full of themselves to ever accept so I personally say let them rot. 

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On 7/23/2024 at 4:23 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

3.  This has already taken more than a year, with recent comments by PAC presidents that it could take a full 6 months longer and the entire fall just to decide to do a merger, let alone actually effectuate any merger.  Such statements are hardly in  “good faith” or reflect action “as promptly as reasonably possible”.

The Pac-12 didn't even break up until Aug. of 2023. That's less than a year ago. The court cases decided in OSU/WSU's favor, enabling the conference to continue to exist, didn't happen until months after that. 

Yes, the Pac-12 did hire its own commissioner. There is conference business to be done until/if there is a merger. 

No one is disrespecting anyone. Heck, OSU has probably played more football games against MWC teams (the true measure of what a school thinks of another school) at MWC venues than anyone over the past decades. OSU has played AT every single MWC venue except Air Force in the last 30 years. How many Pac-12 teams have done that?

This is a monumental decision for OSU and WSU. It impacts everything and everybody involved with athletics. They have to be sure it's the right move. That's not true for the MWC. It simply goes on status quo if OSU/WSU don't join, and only improves significantly if they do.

These things take time. Nothing changes if this thing is done next week, this winter or next spring.

With all due respect, none of the above is true.

It’s not a “monumental decision”. We are talking about joining up with a good athletic conference — you know, one that WSU and OSU could leave at any time? Yes, there are exit fees in that scenario, but that is not a life or death situation. We are talking about not being pricks and sticking their BB programs in the WCC — not because the WCC is a better conference for BB (because it is not), but just because they want to be pricks. 

Notwithstanding complexities, there is no decision to be made here that should take years to make — their actions demonstrate an incredible amount of pride, lack of maturity, lack of situational awareness, lack of leadership, and just a sheer lack of desire to align with the MWC at any committed level — even if that commitment was only temporary.

After seeing that absolute joke of a media day for the PAC-12, I would be pissed as hell if I were a current MWC president.

Time to put up or shut up. Either WSU/OSU  are going to stop the years-long pity party already, make a decision to merge, or they can enjoy rotting in independence hell.

And, if they want to join up with the ACC?…Great, let them knock themselves out. Just like Stanford and Cal, they too can turn up their noses at the best run, most stable conference in the G5 (maybe in all FBS) and instead pay hundreds of millions of dollars to join with the worst run conference in all FBS that is bound to eventually implode.

Now with the recent news there will be no one leaving the ACC for AT LEAST another year, OSU/WSU should be BEGGING the MWC to merge.  Instead, they double down with a media day that is nothing more than another extension of the ongoing pity party, this time with “free booze in the back” because we have nothing left to offer our fans, our donors, our student-athletes, our alumni, our future conference mates, the media or really any of our stakeholders.

 

 

 

 

 

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On 7/24/2024 at 7:09 AM, SteedLaw said:

With all due respect, none of the above is true.

It’s not a “monumental decision”. We are talking about joining up with a good athletic conference — you know, one that WSU and OSU could leave at any time? Yes, there are exit fees in that scenario, but that is not a life or death situation. We are talking about not being pricks and sticking their BB programs in the WCC.

There is no decision to be made here that should take years to make — their actions demonstrate an incredible amount of pride, lack of maturity, lack of situational awareness, lack of leadership, and just a sheer lack of desire to align with the MWC at any committed level — even if that commitment was only temporary.

After seeing that absolute joke of a media day for the PAC-12, I would be pissed as hell if I were a current MWC president.

Time to put up or shut up. Either WSU/OSU  are going to stop the year’s long pity party already, make a decision to merge, or they can enjoy rotting in independence hell.

 

 

 

 

I would say accepting your fate as the first 2 schools to be demoted from the P5 to the G5 is pretty monumental.  

I also think OSU will do better than WSU but this could be the start of a very steep decline for these schools.  

I'm not surprised they are pursuing every angle they can.  

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On 7/23/2024 at 9:21 PM, UofMTigers said:

if Cal/Stanford could get over themselves they had a decent group of 4 teams and the PAC name to rebuild with...but they gotta stick up their nose and do their thing. I don't get it.

No two schools hold themselves above everyone else quite like Cal and Stanford. They're very special just ask them. They are way to good to share a conference with us, the unwashed peons. I hope they fall into the bay.

They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. 
         ---Benjamin Franklin, Historical Review of Pennsylvania, 1759.

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On 7/24/2024 at 7:09 AM, SteedLaw said:

With all due respect, none of the above is true.

It’s not a “monumental decision”. We are talking about joining up with a good athletic conference — you know, one that WSU and OSU could leave at any time? Yes, there are exit fees in that scenario, but that is not a life or death situation. We are talking about not being pricks and sticking their BB programs in the WCC — not because the WCC is a better conference for BB (because it is not), but just because they want to be pricks. 

OSU/WSU being arrogant (which has been hinted at in reporting) is different than intentionally being pricks just because.  More of an unintentional consequence of their behaviorals..  Remember their stated goal is to rebuild the PAC, not (reverse) merge with the MWC.  Altho this strategy seems doomed to fail rather quickly, they are executing to it anyway.

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