Conference Realignment thread

[Beaver-Poke]

On 7/20/2024 at 9:02 PM, SteedLaw said:

Uh...you know you don't look municipality data to determine "city size" right? You look at the population of the city's "metro area" or, as applicable "micro area". And, for market size, you look at the direct statistical areas (MSA) and, to a certain lesser extent, the directly adjacent (i.e., directly bordering) statistical areas?

Corvallis is nowhere even close to the size of Logan (not even in the same ballpark) -- not to mention it is also growing at less than half the annual rate of Logan MSA's current growth rate.

2023 Population of Pullman-Moscow MICRO Area: 89,313 (directly borders no other micro nor metro statistical area) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 0.64%

2023 Population of Corvallis Metro Statistical Area: 97,713 (directly borders no other metro statistical area) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 0.81%

2023 Population of Logan Metro Statistical Area: 157,887 (directly borders SLC - Ogden - Orem - Provo combined MSA 2,805,734) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 2.1%

2023 Population of Ft. Collins-Loveland Metro Statistical Area: 370,771 (directly borders Denver - Aurora - Greeley combined MSA 3,691,404) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 0.99%

Neither OSU nor WSU have a prayer in this decade to make it into the P4. Wait it out all decade if they want; it is not happening. It is nothing personal, just that their markets are way too small. And, IF WSU and OSU join the MWC, or vice versa -- which I still think will happen, there is no question those two schools will battle U-Wyoming for the three smallest markets in the entire MWC.

My god, please look at an atlas.

Albany, Ore (pop 55,000) is eight miles away.

Salem/Keizer and Eugene/Springfield are 40 miles away (population 400,000 plus).

Portland metro is 80 miles away (pop 2.3 million).

Oregon State ranked 20th last year in per-game TV audience.

Which college football programs were most-watched in 2023? | Run It Back With Zach (medium.com)

I have never said OSU/WSU will return to a P4 conference. Most likely they won't.

I have consistently maintained the MWC would be immeasurably strengthened by their addition, and that both OSU/WSU and the MWC should be doing everything possible to make that happen. 

 

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 7/21/2024 at 12:35 AM, jdgaucho said:

 

UConn baseball is solid. 10 bids over the last 14 years. Two super regionals in three years. George Springer was WS MVP in 2017.

 

Historically UConn is best known for its men’s soccer.  Their women’s isn’t shabby either, but used to be more dominant.  They have a solid hockey program as well as decent track( for the North).  Baseball and the basketballs rule there now but it’s a very solid athletic (and academic) school.  I don’t think wsu/and Oregon state have quite the cache athletically as UConn.  But they suck at football.. so there’s that.

[Gasherbrum]

While both Pullman and Corvallis are small, roughly half of Wazzu’s and OSU’s undergrads and alumni come from two very large media markets - Seattle & Portland. 

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 7/21/2024 at 6:22 AM, Gasherbrum said:

While both Pullman and Corvallis are small, roughly half of Wazzu’s and OSU’s undergrads and alumni come from two very large media markets - Seattle & Portland. 

Regionally significant.  Might help with mwc contract negotiations a little.

[Chalsean]

On 7/20/2024 at 11:16 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

My god, please look at an atlas.

Albany, Ore (pop 55,000) is eight miles away.

Salem/Keizer and Eugene/Springfield are 40 miles away (population 400,000 plus).

Portland metro is 80 miles away (pop 2.3 million).

Oregon State ranked 20th last year in per-game TV audience.

Which college football programs were most-watched in 2023? | Run It Back With Zach (medium.com)

I have never said OSU/WSU will return to a P4 conference. Most likely they won't.

I have consistently maintained the MWC would be immeasurably strengthened by their addition, and that both OSU/WSU and the MWC should be doing everything possible to make that happen. 

 

Running the numbers doesn't look good.  Lets say MWC lands somewhere around AAC which is getting $7 million per school.  I think MWC will be higher but its a good starting point.  $7 million * 12 = $84 million total.  Dodd's article says adding OSU/WSU would add 10%-15% total value with being closer to 10%.  That's $8.4 million - $12.6 million.  So lets split the difference and say $10 million, so thats $94 million total.  $94 million / 14 = $6.7 million.  Now MWC schools are taking a financial penalty adding OSU/WSU.  In fact, in order to break even OSU/WSU would need to add $14 million which is north of 15%.

Obviously not everything is about money or at least I wish it wasn't.  Just because something makes you money doesn't mean its the right thing to do.  I do think OSU/WSU should be added.  They are a cultural fit, have great facilities, in the footprint and draw in markets we don't currently have.  Having said that, they don't move the needle enough to warrant concessions and I simply don't know what OSU/WSU are asking for in order to join.  Their admins/alums do not seem to view MWC as peers.  I suspect the exit fee penalty is coming up, but if I were the MWC I wouldn't budge on anything.

[renoskier]

On 7/20/2024 at 3:31 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

...OSU's athletic budget, which they have pledged to maintain, dwarfs that of every MWC school by at least $20 million per year. 

 

this entire difference comes from a media rights contract which no longer exists

[Beaver-Poke]

On 7/21/2024 at 8:36 AM, renoskier said:

this entire difference comes from a media rights contract which no longer exists

State support to athletics has been increased by $10 million. OSU's TV contract with the CW and FOX will be in the $8-10 million range, substantially higher than the MWC's current deal. The departing Pac-12 schools are paying OSU and WSU $65 million. And there is about $190 million in other Pac-related funds. I can't speak for WSU, but OSU's athletic budget will remain in the $85-90 million range for the foreseeable future, which is significantly higher than any in the MWC. 

[jdgaucho]

On 7/21/2024 at 9:36 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

State support to athletics has been increased by $10 million. OSU's TV contract with the CW and FOX will be in the $8-10 million range, substantially higher than the MWC's current deal. The departing Pac-12 schools are paying OSU and WSU $65 million. And there is about $190 million in other Pac-related funds. I can't speak for WSU, but OSU's athletic budget will remain in the $85-90 million range for the foreseeable future, which is significantly higher than any in the MWC. 

 

So we should expect a top three finish for OSU in most WCC sports then. It's more competitive than it looks, though. Remember BYU never won a men's basketball regular season or tournament championship while in the church league

[nvspuds]

On 7/21/2024 at 9:36 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

State support to athletics has been increased by $10 million. OSU's TV contract with the CW and FOX will be in the $8-10 million range, substantially higher than the MWC's current deal. The departing Pac-12 schools are paying OSU and WSU $65 million. And there is about $190 million in other Pac-related funds. I can't speak for WSU, but OSU's athletic budget will remain in the $85-90 million range for the foreseeable future, which is significantly higher than any in the MWC. 

I think the best opportunity for OSU and Wazzu is to buy their way into the Big 12..I suspect they have approached them several times with this offer..

[Beaver-Poke]

On 7/21/2024 at 11:06 AM, jdgaucho said:

 

So we should expect a top three finish for OSU in most WCC sports then. It's more competitive than it looks, though. Remember BYU never won a men's basketball regular season or tournament championship while in the church league

Football, baseball and men's soccer are OSU's best-performing sports. Football won't compete in the WCC (obviously). Baseball is an independent. I expect men's soccer to do very well in the WCC. I also expect volleyball and women's soccer, which have been second-tier teams in the Pac-12, to do considerably better. 

Men's basketball will be a challenge, just as it was in the Pac-12. Had the women's team not lost much of its Elite 8 personnel to the portal because they didn't want to compete at the WCC level, they would have mopped the floor of the WCC. 

Nothing but respect for the WCC. It's a good conference. 

[SteedLaw]

On 7/21/2024 at 12:52 PM, nvspuds said:

I think the best opportunity for OSU and Wazzu is to buy their way into the Big 12..I suspect they have approached them several times with this offer..

And, every time it has been a solid, no. Kyle Whittingham even went on record 2 months ago saying if the Big XII did expand, the only schools/teams he would for sure say no to would be OSU and WSU. This is not an option for them.

[SteedLaw]

On 7/21/2024 at 10:36 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

State support to athletics has been increased by $10 million. OSU's TV contract with the CW and FOX will be in the $8-10 million range, substantially higher than the MWC's current deal. The departing Pac-12 schools are paying OSU and WSU $65 million. And there is about $190 million in other Pac-related funds. I can't speak for WSU, but OSU's athletic budget will remain in the $85-90 million range for the foreseeable future, which is significantly higher than any in the MWC. 

Just FYI. SDSU had a budget of $96MM last year.

[Wyobraska]

On 7/21/2024 at 10:36 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

State support to athletics has been increased by $10 million. OSU's TV contract with the CW and FOX will be in the $8-10 million range, substantially higher than the MWC's current deal. The departing Pac-12 schools are paying OSU and WSU $65 million. And there is about $190 million in other Pac-related funds. I can't speak for WSU, but OSU's athletic budget will remain in the $85-90 million range for the foreseeable future, which is significantly higher than any in the MWC. 

OSU will get $27 million from the PAC 12/NCAA.  Where do they make up those funds in 2 years?  They won't lose all of that, but it will be significantly reduced I assume.  

I also wonder what will happen to ticket revenue with playing in a G5 league?

Washington St is proposing a budget of $75 million next year so they are definitely going to be feeling it.  

[nvspuds]

On 7/21/2024 at 5:48 PM, SteedLaw said:

And, every time it has been a solid, no. Kyle Whittingham even went on record 2 months ago saying if the Big XII did expand, the only schools/teams he would for sure say no to would be OSU and WSU. This is not an option for them.

  I can't predict the future but just because you say that something will play out just like you expect, it doesn't mean it will.  Unexpected things happen all the time.

I will be fine if the MW and The Pac2 merge.  I will be fine if they don't but nothing seems as clear cut as you are certain it is.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 7/21/2024 at 12:36 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

State support to athletics has been increased by $10 million. OSU's TV contract with the CW and FOX will be in the $8-10 million range, substantially higher than the MWC's current deal. The departing Pac-12 schools are paying OSU and WSU $65 million. And there is about $190 million in other Pac-related funds. I can't speak for WSU, but OSU's athletic budget will remain in the $85-90 million range for the foreseeable future, which is significantly higher than any in the MWC. 

No it’s not.  FOX isn’t going to pay you millions of dollars, FOX is paying Oregon and Boise state money for those games,  those schools pay you whatever you agreed to come play there.  It’s not millions though, especially Boise.  The CW is paying about $1m/game for 11 games total to split between 2 schools.  That’s more like $5.5m/school minus whatever you pay your opponent to come play you as well as operating/production costs.  That’s basically MWC money, which makes sense as they’re your peers.  That’s great that the state is giving you $10m but there’s no way on this planet you’re keeping a $90m budget.  You have a modest war chest, yes, but most of that money isn’t spendable to you as you carry all the legal obligations of the conference with that money as well. 

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 7/21/2024 at 8:48 PM, SteedLaw said:

And, every time it has been a solid, no. Kyle Whittingham even went on record 2 months ago saying if the Big XII did expand, the only schools/teams he would for sure say no to would be OSU and WSU. This is not an option for them.

As if he has any say..

Even if the PAC2 offered to come to the XII with zero revenue like SMOO I don’t see it working.  

[Beaver-Poke]

On 7/21/2024 at 8:20 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

No it’s not.  FOX isn’t going to pay you millions of dollars, FOX is paying Oregon and Boise state money for those games,  those schools pay you whatever you agreed to come play there.  It’s not millions though, especially Boise.  The CW is paying about $1m/game for 11 games total to split between 2 schools.  That’s more like $5.5m/school minus whatever you pay your opponent to come play you as well as operating/production costs.  That’s basically MWC money, which makes sense as they’re your peers.  That’s great that the state is giving you $10m but there’s no way on this planet you’re keeping a $90m budget.  You have a modest war chest, yes, but most of that money isn’t spendable to you as you carry all the legal obligations of the conference with that money as well. 

Oregon plays at OSU this year, ace. Oregon State owns the broadcast rights to its home games. When Oregon plays at Reser Stadium on Sept. 14, Fox will pay OSU for the right to televise the broadcast. It certainly will be in the million-dollar range. That's how it works. 

The guarantee for Oregon will be low. Oregon will pay an identical guarantee the following year in the second half of the home-and-home. The home teams will keep the remainder of the gate beyond the guarantee.

The CW will broadcast the remainder of OSU's home games, for a reported $1 million a pop. Production costs will be minimal because OSU already had a full on-campus production studio as part of the Pac-12 Network.

I'm sorry you seem to be so consistently misinformed. 

 

[utenation]

On 7/21/2024 at 6:48 PM, SteedLaw said:

And, every time it has been a solid, no. Kyle Whittingham even went on record 2 months ago saying if the Big XII did expand, the only schools/teams he would for sure say no to would be OSU and WSU. This is not an option for them.

Do you have a link for this? Kyle really doesn’t get specific on expansion one way or the other.  He usually leaves that to Mark Harlan. 

[utenation]

On 7/21/2024 at 9:25 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

As if he has any say..

Even if the PAC2 offered to come to the XII with zero revenue like SMOO I don’t see it working.  

UCF should have stayed in the AAC. I bet the B12 is kicking themselves for adding 4 G5 anchors. 

[Brew_Poke]

On 7/20/2024 at 4:31 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Population of Corvallis, Oregon (2022): 60,956

Population of Logan, Utah (2022): 54,680.

Looks like Corvallis is the "thriving metropolis" compared to Logan. 

You are out of your mind if you think any power conference is going to choose a service academy for membership. OSU's athletic budget, which they have pledged to maintain, dwarfs that of every MWC school by at least $20 million per year. 

In this past year alone OSU went to the Final Four in men's soccer. It went to the Elite 8 in women's basketball. It advanced to the Super Regionals in baseball. It was ranked in the top 15 in football after 10 weeks, before losing a 2-point game to Washington, the eventual CFP runner-up, and at Oregon, which finished in the top 10. It had the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. It has a defending gold-medal (and current Olympic) gymnast. It advanced to the NCAA finals in women's golf. It finished in the top 20 in men's rowing. 

Its overall athletic department accomplishments far surpass those of CSU, San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV, USF, Army, Navy, Memphis, and Air Force. Across the board. It finished 63rd, ahead of every single school you name in the final Learfield Cup standings and would have been even higher had Learfield recognized men's crew, which it doesn't because the NCAA does not conduct the men's crew championships.

UCONN has great basketball programs. And pretty much sucks at everything else. 

There is absolutely no harm being done in waiting. Not that long ago, USU was in the Big West Conference. It would kill to be in the same league at either Wazzu or Oregon State. 

All that and on the CW, lol.