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Conference Realignment thread

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On 7/15/2024 at 10:06 PM, EvilPoke said:

Well, they are for sure right on several things in this article:

1) First, the more time that passes, the more leverage the MWC has.

2) Second, the more time that passes the less leverage that OSU and WSU have.

After the complete joke that was the PAC-12 “media day”, I am surprised they are not begging the MWC on hands and knees to be let in. 

“Hey, we know we have no conference and nothing interesting to say that even merits a single article for you all being here, but there is free booze in the back! Nib High Football Rules!!!” 

I mean, they want people to feel bad for them, but the pity party boat has long since sailed…like a year ago. 

 

 

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https://www.outkick.com/sports/mountain-west-oregon-state-washington-state-not-interested-report
 

And…this.

I have been saying it for a while now, OSU and WSU did not have years to make a decision, they had months. 

It was a really stupid move on their part to think they had years to decide whether to join or reverse merge with the MWC. 

It appears the window is closing…and may have already closed. 
 

Hope they enjoy independence hell or CUSA as they continue the spiral into complete irrelevancy. 
 

Really stupid move…

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2 hours ago, SteedLaw said:

https://www.outkick.com/sports/mountain-west-oregon-state-washington-state-not-interested-report
 

And…this.

I have been saying it for a while now, OSU and WSU did not have years to make a decision, they had months. 

It was a really stupid move on their part to think they had years to decide whether to join or reverse merge with the MWC. 

It appears the window is closing…and may have already closed. 
 

Hope they enjoy independence hell or CUSA as they continue the spiral into complete irrelevancy. 
 

Really stupid move…

So you post a second article that uses the first article (which is an opinion piece) for it's premise to support the position that the MW isn't interested in OSU/WSU.  Hmmm, okay. 

It's the same information. Nothing new.

It's like me posting your post to support the position.  It's an opinion.

Nothing means nothing and everything means everything.

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On 7/20/2024 at 8:16 AM, Someone Else said:

So you post a second article that uses the first article (which is an opinion piece) for it's premise to support the position that the MW isn't interested in OSU/WSU.  Hmmm, okay. 

It's the same information. Nothing new.

It's like me posting your post to support the position.  It's an opinion.

Nothing means nothing and everything means everything.

Bah…you missed the point. 

Time is a ticking on OSU and WSU. Their window is closing. The longer they wait, the less leverage they have. The longer they wait, the more leverage the MWC has. 

All you guys dreaming of a poaching scenario are up in the night. It is either join, reverse merge, or the NW twins go bust.

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On 7/20/2024 at 10:26 AM, SteedLaw said:

Bah…you missed the point. 

Time is a ticking on OSU and WSU. Their window is closing. The longer they wait, the less leverage they have. The longer they wait, the more leverage the MWC has. 

All you guys dreaming of a poaching scenario are up in the night. It is either join, reverse merge, or the NW twins go bust.

I get your point, but it's not like they're "waiting". They're negotiating behind closed doors. Just because nothing has been made public, it doesn't mean they're just sitting on their thumbs and dreaming about P4 invitations (though I'm sure there's some of that going on too).

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On 7/20/2024 at 10:26 AM, SteedLaw said:

Bah…you missed the point. 

Time is a ticking on OSU and WSU. Their window is closing. The longer they wait, the less leverage they have. The longer they wait, the more leverage the MWC has. 

All you guys dreaming of a poaching scenario are up in the night. It is either join, reverse merge, or the NW twins go bust.

Nothing is changing. No window is closing. No one is going anywhere in the next 5-6 months, in any conference, except perhaps to the MAC if it adds a 14th member, which won't impact the Pac-12 or the MWC at all. No rights fees packages are expiring.

OSU administrators I have talked to consistently say a decision will be made no later than early spring, possibly before. I expect that timetable still applies. Both sides would be well-served to see how this football season goes before jumping into any binding decision.

Like almost everything associated with Clay Travis and "Outkick the Coverage," the story you linked is complete nonsense, simply a rehash of Dodd's story with some uninformed opinion thrown in.  

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56 minutes ago, SteedLaw said:

Bah…you missed the point. 

Time is a ticking on OSU and WSU. Their window is closing. The longer they wait, the less leverage they have. The longer they wait, the more leverage the MWC has. 

All you guys dreaming of a poaching scenario are up in the night. It is either join, reverse merge, or the NW twins go bust.

I didn't miss the point, you did.  You already made your opinion known with the first opinion piece article. The second article didn't add a thing. 

 

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W/OSU is holding out hope that the ACC is rocked and/or implodes in the next 10 months ... which either opens up a spot in a Western Division with CalFordSMU or leaves CalFordSMU looking to join back into the Pac-12 - thereby changing the poaching math a lot. 

I would be doing the same thing in their shoes. 

 

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On 7/20/2024 at 12:55 PM, EvilPoke said:

W/OSU is holding out hope that the ACC is rocked and/or implodes in the next 10 months ... which either opens up a spot in a Western Division with CalFordSMU or leaves CalFordSMU looking to join back into the Pac-12 - thereby changing the poaching math a lot. 

I would be doing the same thing in their shoes. 

 

And, that is my point...that is not a smart move for them.

There is beyond ZERO chance that the ACC both (a) implodes and, more important, (b) chooses to rebuild with OSU/WSU. There would be at least 10 schools/teams on the list ahead of those two schools, including but not limited to CSU, San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV, USF, UCONN, Army, Navy, Memphis, and Air Force. 

NOBODY in the P5 is going to even LOOK at teams from Pullman Washington and Corvallis Oregon -- those two cities make Ft. Collins and Logan look like thriving major metropolises by comparison. 

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On 7/20/2024 at 1:40 PM, SteedLaw said:

And, that is my point...that is not a smart move for them.

There is beyond ZERO chance that the ACC both (a) implodes and, more important, (b) chooses to rebuild with OSU/WSU. There would be at least 10 schools/teams on the list ahead of those two schools, including but not limited to CSU, San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV, USF, UCONN, Army, Navy, Memphis, and Air Force. 

NOBODY in the P5 is going to even LOOK at teams from Pullman Washington and Corvallis Oregon -- those two cities make Ft. Collins and Logan look like thriving major metropolises by comparison. 

I don't see any negative to them waiting, though. 

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On 7/20/2024 at 3:07 PM, EvilPoke said:

I don't see any negative to them waiting, though. 

I, respectfully, disagree.

That Pac-12 "media day" was a complete laughing-stock joke. They are doing neither their programs, their athletes, their fans, their individual nor collective brands, nor their coaches any favors by waiting at this point. And...their "leverage" with the MWC is fast disappearing.

Only bad things can come from their waiting beyond that which they have already waited.

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Population of Corvallis, Oregon (2022): 60,956

Population of Logan, Utah (2022): 54,680.

Looks like Corvallis is the "thriving metropolis" compared to Logan. 

You are out of your mind if you think any power conference is going to choose a service academy for membership. OSU's athletic budget, which they have pledged to maintain, dwarfs that of every MWC school by at least $20 million per year. 

In this past year alone OSU went to the Final Four in men's soccer. It went to the Elite 8 in women's basketball. It advanced to the Super Regionals in baseball. It was ranked in the top 15 in football after 10 weeks, before losing a 2-point game to Washington, the eventual CFP runner-up, and at Oregon, which finished in the top 10. It had the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. It has a defending gold-medal (and current Olympic) gymnast. It advanced to the NCAA finals in women's golf. It finished in the top 20 in men's rowing. 

Its overall athletic department accomplishments far surpass those of CSU, San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV, USF, Army, Navy, Memphis, and Air Force. Across the board. It finished 63rd, ahead of every single school you name in the final Learfield Cup standings and would have been even higher had Learfield recognized men's crew, which it doesn't because the NCAA does not conduct the men's crew championships.

UCONN has great basketball programs. And pretty much sucks at everything else. 

There is absolutely no harm being done in waiting. Not that long ago, USU was in the Big West Conference. It would kill to be in the same league at either Wazzu or Oregon State. 

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On 7/20/2024 at 3:31 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Population of Corvallis, Oregon (2022): 60,956

Population of Logan, Utah (2022): 54,680.

Population of Chula Vista: 278,247

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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On 7/20/2024 at 4:58 PM, EvilPoke said:

Population of the State of Wyoming: 581,381

Population of San Diego County 3,345,000

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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On 7/20/2024 at 4:31 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Population of Corvallis, Oregon (2022): 60,956

Population of Logan, Utah (2022): 54,680.

Looks like Corvallis is the "thriving metropolis" compared to Logan. 

 

Uh...you know you don't look municipality data to determine "city size" right? You look at the population of the city's "metro area" or, as applicable "micro area". And, for market size, you look at the direct statistical areas (MSA) and, to a certain lesser extent, the directly adjacent (i.e., directly bordering) statistical areas?

Corvallis is nowhere even close to the size of Logan (not even in the same ballpark) -- not to mention it is also growing at less than half the annual rate of Logan MSA's current growth rate.

2023 Population of Pullman-Moscow MICRO Area: 89,313 (directly borders no other micro nor metro statistical area) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 0.64%

2023 Population of Corvallis Metro Statistical Area: 97,713 (directly borders no other metro statistical area) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 0.81%

2023 Population of Logan Metro Statistical Area: 157,887 (directly borders SLC - Ogden - Orem - Provo combined MSA 2,805,734) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 2.1%

2023 Population of Ft. Collins-Loveland Metro Statistical Area: 370,771 (directly borders Denver - Aurora - Greeley combined MSA 3,691,404) Annual Pop Change Average Over Last Three Years: 0.99%

Neither OSU nor WSU have a prayer in this decade to make it into the P4. Wait it out all decade if they want; it is not happening. It is nothing personal, just that their markets are way too small. And, IF WSU and OSU join the MWC, or vice versa -- which I still think will happen, there is no question those two schools will battle U-Wyoming for the three smallest markets in the entire MWC.

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On 7/20/2024 at 3:31 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

 

UCONN has great basketball programs. And pretty much sucks at everything else. 

 

UConn baseball is solid. 10 bids over the last 14 years. Two super regionals in three years. George Springer was WS MVP in 2017.

 

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